I do hope that this ebola thing is petering it's self out. We may have dodged another bullet for now but if anything, it sends a loud message to the people that they are pretty much on their own. And I think that it's a good thing that the people realize this, for freedoms sake if nothing else.
Originally Posted by navy-vet
EBOLA = MOON
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
I also hear that worldwide 9.5 people out of every 1000 die each day from lack of oxygen to the brain.
I bet the seasonal flu does that too, and with a lot more deaths.
EBOLA = MOON
Actually "seasonal" flu is less seasonal than you'd think. It averages 6% of deaths in the fairly consistent range from 4-8% regardless of season.
If ebola was stock I'd give it a strong buy rating right here. Even with an ultra conservative 30 day doubling rate:
10/22 10000 cases
11/22 20000 cases
12/22 40000 cases
1/22/15 80000 cases
2/22/15 160,000 cases
-CDC September 14 2014Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15–20 days
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are
1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone.
The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are
1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone;
the corresponding doubling times are
15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_numberIn epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive rate, basic reproductive ratio and denoted R0, r nought) of an infection can be thought of as the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population.[5]
This metric is useful because it helps determine whether or not an infectious disease can spread through a population. The roots of the basic reproduction concept can be traced through the work of Alfred Lotka, Ronald Ross, and others, but its first modern application in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952, who constructed population models of the spread of malaria.
When
R0 < 1
the infection will die out in the long run. But if
R0 > 1
the infection will be able to spread in a population.
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/36/4/881.full(Spanish) influenza virus, which has attributed to >20 million deaths.
[]
The effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infectious cases produced by a typical infectious case in a given population) for the 1918 influenza virus was in the range 1.2–3.0
Last edited by presence; 10-22-2014 at 08:21 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
interesting, thanks for the post! You are right about that by the way, unfortunately.....Actually "seasonal" flu is less seasonal than you'd think. It averages 6% of deaths in the fairly consistent range from 4-8% regardless of season.
If ebola was stock I'd give it a strong buy rating right here. Even with an ultra conservative 30 day doubling rate:
10/22 10000 cases
11/22 20000 cases
12/22 40000 cases
1/22/15 80000 cases
2/22/15 160,000 cases
-CDC September 14 2014
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/36/4/881.full
Smoking gun?
Last edited by S.Shorland; 10-23-2014 at 05:47 AM.
presence,
the problem with your numbers is that the doubling isn't linear. It's getting shorter. I posted something a while back in this thread - might be called "ebola's deadly math" if google is faster... but the doubling time is getting shorter. it will be 7 days soon. The 1.4 million projection by early next year sounds possible.
There will be some vaccines available (that may or may not work) in 3-4 months, but they will be given to medical staff, grave diggers and the family members of those doing home care. It will be more months before they can vaccinate the population due to production time.
The most optimistic projection I've heard is getting it under control in 4-6 months. This seems unrealistic.
The most pessimistic projection is 14 months. That number does not take into account some limited progress with standard health measures, primarily hand washing and getting people to not shake hands, keeping kids home and not at school, social distancing, etc.
Realistically, the only hard stop is when the virus runs out of "food" (that would be us). It also assumes that no cases get out and find a new food supply.
It could also mutate into something less lethal, but I'm not holding my breath - esp if that means it goes airborne.
-t
Last edited by tangent4ronpaul; 10-23-2014 at 05:02 AM.
Doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to New York City's Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of Ebola disease.
[Published: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 2:49 PM Eastern time
Updated: Thursday, October 23, 2014, 5:53 PM Eastern time]
The 33-year-old identified as Dr. Craig Spencer recently returned from West Africa after working with Doctors Without Borders. Although he had placed himself in self-quarantine, city health workers were rushing to find anyone with whom Spencer may have been in contact.
Read more:A 33-year-old doctor who recently returned from the disease-wracked West African country of Guinea was rushed Thursday to Bellevue Hospital with symptoms of the deadly disease.
Preliminary results of tests done on the doctor, identified by sources as Craig Spencer, are expected in the next 12 hours, the city's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said in a statement.
Spencer, who was one of the medics working in Guinea with Doctors Without Borders, had been back for 10 days and told authorities he quarantined himself after developing nausea and a high fever, sources said.
But city health department officials were looking into reports that Spencer was at a bowling alley on Wednesday in Williamsburg and took an Uber taxi to get there, sources said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/...icle-1.1984941
Last edited by francisco; 10-23-2014 at 04:17 PM.
Brawndo's got what plants crave. Its got electrolytes.
H. L. Mencken said it best:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
Ebola already has quite a few species where it can comfortably exist.
Can Ebola spread into the environment in North America?
"Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
"Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
"Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
Proponent of real science.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.
uhoh, there goes NYC....Secure the bridges and other exits. QUARANTINE! If anyone here has seen "The Strain", then you know what I'm talking about, what's at stake!
And the guy went bowling last night.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/...new-york-city/
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
This is $#@!in creepy! A mid-air collision between a plane and helicopter over the same airport that Nina Pham was allegedly dropped off at in Maryland. Either I'm psychic or someone is trying to make my posts a reality! What are the odds????
http://news.yahoo.com/police-plane-h...203423275.html
FREDERICK, Md. (AP) — An airplane and a helicopter collided in the air near an airport in Maryland on Thursday, killing three people and injuring two.
...............
Nurse Nina Pham arrived at the airport last week from Dallas on her way to treatment for Ebola at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Self quarantine is supposed to be 3 weeks... so he goes bowling after 10 days... ugh! I hope MSF fires his ass!
About what I would expect from NYC Public Health officialsBrooklyn Bowl, on its Facebook page, said it had not been contacted by authorities.
Note moron on left w/ hand in pocket? Note moron on right with exposed skin. That's how nurse #1 & 2 got sick.
Well, we didn't need NYC anyway....
OH WAIT - Moron on right - NOOOO BOOTIES! - Yeah, she's totally $#@!ed!
Yeah - this is the place caring for a HOT patient!
So good to know this doc knows how to read...Frieden spoke a day after the feds imposed new rules requiring that all travelers arriving in the U.S. from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone be monitored for three weeks, which is the incubation period for Ebola.
-t
Last edited by tangent4ronpaul; 10-23-2014 at 05:21 PM.
Hopefully he didn't vomit anywhere.
And I still wonder about the danger of bodily fluids going into the sewage system. Are there rats in New York?
"Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
"Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
"Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
Proponent of real science.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.
This is why we need the travel ban and mandatory quarantines. People are stupid.Self quarantine is supposed to be 3 weeks... so he goes bowling after 10 days... ugh! I hope MSF fires his ass!
About what I would expect from NYC Public Health officials
Note moron on left w/ hand in pocket? Note moron on right with exposed skin. That's how nurse #1 & 2 got sick.
Well, we didn't need NYC anyway....
OH WAIT - Moron on right - NOOOO BOOTIES! - Yeah, she's totally $#@!ed!
Yeah - this is the place caring for a HOT patient!
So good to know this doc knows how to read...
-t
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
It's not so much the "public spewing" that I wonder about, but I have read that this can be just as easily spread by sweat and tears. Bowlers have sweaty hands, hence the baby powder.
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
I have to assume that Doctors and nurses are so used to being around sick people and infections that they are somewhat jaded, and far less germ phobic then the rest of us.So good to know this doc knows how to read...
"Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
"Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
"Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
Proponent of real science.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.
Fredrick? - that's like an hour out from NIH. I don't think I've ever driven that stretch of HWY without seeing at least one accident. Are they trying for an outbreak?FREDERICK, Md. (AP) — An airplane and a helicopter collided in the air near an airport in Maryland on Thursday, killing three people and injuring two.
...............
Nurse Nina Pham arrived at the airport last week from Dallas on her way to treatment for Ebola at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.
There are a number of private airports much closer.
The main DC airport - is like 30 min out.
-t
That could be true because I had to remind my own mother, a doctor, in Texas mind you, not to shake someone's hand unless she had a glove on. At least while she was in clinic.
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
Could also be malaria.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/ny...city.html?_r=0While the symptoms Dr. Spencer displayed are similar to those of other diseases endemic in West Africa, including malaria, the health department was proceeding as though he had Ebola.
Test results expected later today. (Actually about 3:00pm Eastern they said "the next 12 hours" for results)Dr. Spencer had been working with Doctors Without Borders in Guinea, treating Ebola patients, before he returned to New York City on Oct. 14, according to a city official.
He told the authorities that he did not believe the protective gear he wore while working with Ebola patients had been breached.
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-23-2014 at 05:57 PM.
Animal Planet ranks the NYC rat epidemic worst in the world:
http://www.animalplanet.com/wild-ani...-the-world.htm
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Could rats actually spread the disease? I understand that bats can, but the people in Africa eat the bats?
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
It is believed that ebola started infecting people by eating bushmeat- monkeys and gorillas but yes, some bats and rats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/m...bola-concerns/
Thanks, I knew about the bushmeat - monkeys and bats, but just didn't think about the rats. How do you think the rats would get the disease?
I know it's gross, but I heard that in Africa, they were having problems with dogs eating corpses.
Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
~ George Washington
Yes they eat sun dried bats.
No rats are supposedly not a vector.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/rats-sp...ry?id=26282017Neither mosquitoes nor rats can spread Ebola, Besser said.
Pigs, like the feral hog outbreak in Dallas wetlands would be a host.
mammals such as humans, bats, monkeys [] apes []dogs and pigs can be infected with the virus
Last edited by presence; 10-23-2014 at 07:49 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Please, only eat candy bats on Halloween and avoid getting anywhere near those real, sun-dried bats (and all bush meat).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ab-west-africa
EXCLUSIVE: Was Ebola Accidentally Released from a Bioweapons Lab In West Africa?
Submitted by George Washington on 10/23/2014 11:31 -0400
Accidents at Germ Labs Have Occurred Worldwide Nations such as Russia, South Africa and the U.S. have long conducted research into how to make deadly germs even more deadly. And accidents at these research facilities have caused germs to escape, killing people and animals near the facilities.
For example, the Soviet research facility at Sverdlovsk conducted anthrax research during the Cold War. They isolated the most potent strain of anthrax culture and then dried it to produce a fine powder for use as an aerosol. In 1979, an accident at the facility released anthrax, killing 100.
The U.S. has had its share of accidents. USA Today noted in August:
More than 1,100 laboratory incidents involving bacteria, viruses and toxins that pose significant or bioterror risks to people and agriculture were reported to federal regulators during 2008 through 2012, government reports obtained by USA TODAY show.
***
In two other incidents, animals were inadvertently infected with contagious diseases that would have posed significant threats to livestock industries if they had spread. One case involved the infection of two animals with hog cholera, a dangerous virus eradicated from the USA in 1978. In another incident, a cow in a disease-free herd next to a research facility studying the bacteria that cause brucellosis, became infected ....
The issue of lab safety and security has come under increased scrutiny by Congress in recent weeks after a series of high-profile lab blunders at prestigious government labs involving anthrax, bird flu and smallpox virus.
***
The new lab incident data indicate mishaps occur regularly at the more than 1,000 labs operated by 324 government, university and private organizations across the country ....
"More than 200 incidents of loss or release of bioweapons agents from U.S. laboratories are reported each year. This works out to more than four per week," said Richard Ebright, a biosafety expert at Rutgers university in New Jersey, who testified before Congress last month at a hearing about CDC's lab mistakes.
continued... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ab-west-africa
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"Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
"Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
"Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
Proponent of real science.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.
I'll add a couple links to consider.
A Link Between the Ebola Outbreak and a US Bioweapons Lab?
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com...ak-and-us.html
http://globalbiodefense.com/2014/07/...bola-outbreak/
http://birdflu666.wordpress.com/2014...ebola-testing/
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/10/ebola-2.html
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
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