CNN New Hampshire poll: Rand Paul 15%, Bush 10%, Ryan 10%, Christie 9%, Huckabee 9%

[jct74]

BASED ON 383 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS WHO SAY
THEY WILL VOTE IN THE 2016 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5
PERCENTAGE PTS.

5. Thinking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, if the Republican presidential primary were
held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Senator Ted
Cruz, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Kentucky
Senator Rand Paul, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Florida Senator
Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum,
or Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. (RANDOM ORDER.)


Sept. 8-11, 2014

Paul.......15%
Bush.......10%
Ryan.......10%
Christie....9%
Huckabee....9%
Perry.......7%
Rubio.......7%
Walker......7%
Cruz........6%
Jindal......3%
Santorum....3%
Pence *
Someone else (vol.) 3%
None/No one (vol.) 4%
No opinion 7%


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/im...e.poll.top.pdf

[William Tell]

Among men, Rand has 18%, Scott Walker is in 2nd with 10 percent. Bush leads with women barely, with 13%, Rand and Paul Ryan are tied for 2nd with 12%.

Rand Paul leads among whites with 16%, Bush and Ryan are tied for 2nd with 11%. Rand and Bush are tied for 1st among white women with 13% each.

Among independents, Rand leads with a whopping 21%, Christie trails in 2nd with 10%.

Rand leads among self identified Conservatives with 16%, Bush is 2nd with 11%.

[tsai3904]

Rand gets 21% of Independents and only 11% of Republicans. PPP has showed Rand with similar Ind/GOP ratio in most of their state polls. Unfortunately, in states that have closed primaries, Independents don't go out of their way to register with one party to vote in the primary.

[Inkblots]

Rand gets 21% of Independents and only 11% of Republicans. PPP has showed Rand with similar Ind/GOP ratio in most of their state polls. Unfortunately, in states that have closed primaries, Independents don't go out of their way to register with one party to vote in the primary.

So we take the strong numbers with independents and use them to play up the electability angle. That'll be a good way to shut down Bush or Christie, whoever is going for the "safe, electable moderate" role in the campaign.

[RonZeplin]

Compared to Iowa, Huck dropped from 1st to 5th, but Ryan only dropped from 2nd to 3rd.

A (loser) Ryan nomination would signal that the GOP loves Hillary, and is afraid to take the wheel of the Titanic.

[William Tell]

So we take the strong numbers with independents and use them to play up the "electability" angle. That'll be a good way to shut down Bush or Christie, whoever is going for the "safe, electable moderate" role in the campaign.

I am also counting on the strong support Rand has among Ponies, he is at 100% among Ponies i know

His Giraffe support is rather high as well

[jmdrake]

This is good news after the latest Iowa poll. Rand must win New Hampshire.

[Brett85]

That's a lot better news than the Iowa poll.

[Keith and stuff]

It is still early folks. Let's not worry about the bad IA poll just yet. Rand Paul has Santorum's campaign manager (a NH liberty guy) on board. He also has at least some of Ron's New England team on board. Santorum was the #2 Republican in 2012 followed by Ron Paul at #3. Remember, Northern New England was Ron Paul's best region. His 2nd best region was New England as a whole region.

This is a good poll from NH. Rand has already endorsed the Republican nominees for US Senate in ME and NH. Not to mention he was a big supporter of Romney. He spoke at the NH Unity Breakfast along with Senator Ayotte.The word is out that Rand is a team player. He has a good shot of winning NH and a bunch of other states

[philipped]

The word is out that Rand is a team player.

This is what will save the "he's too extreme to be the nominee" position. Sooo essential and I applaud him in his efforts toward that so far.

[Warlord]

Hopefully Rand maintains a large lead in the New Hampshire polls all the way to election day!

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

what a great sampling size

NOT!

[Crashland]

what a great sampling size

NOT!

Sample size is about average out of all the current NH polls

[Jackie Moon]

what a great sampling size

NOT!

Yeah, I wish they would at least do a poll with a larger sample size.

Like the Iowa poll there wasn't even a large enough sample to give reasonable results for people under 50:

Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/-8.5 percentage points or less.

[Keith and stuff]

Paul was 50% above every other option. Among Independents, he was 100% above the other options.

[alucard13mm]

I hate to rain on a lot of your guy's parade... but,

Losing poll = who cares, small sample, biased questioning, conspiracy, rigged, too early to peak

Winning poll = WAHOO!

Again, I don't want to be a negative nancy. Just giving some observations. Iowa will set the narrative. Probably why Santorum got cheated out of a win at the beginning.

[CPUd]

I hate to rain on a lot of your guy's parade... but,

Losing poll = who cares, small sample, biased questioning, conspiracy, rigged, too early to peak

Winning poll = WAHOO!

Again, I don't want to be a negative nancy. Just giving some observations. Iowa will set the narrative. Probably why Santorum got cheated out of a win at the beginning.

Yeah, it does get like that in here. The only way to really get anything from these polls is to look at them over time.

[Southron]

I wonder what the poll would have been like had it included Mitt Romney.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Rand Paul does well in the 'shire. Hobbit confirmed.

[Xenliad]

I hate to rain on a lot of your guy's parade... but,

Losing poll = who cares, small sample, biased questioning, conspiracy, rigged, too early to peak

Winning poll = WAHOO!

I've caught myself doing this as well. It's good to point out.

[extortion17]

This is good news after the latest Iowa poll. Rand must win New Hampshire.

Rand will win both Iowa delegates (decided in June 2016 - not the night of the caucus)
and win New Hampshire delegates at the January primary - all for the GOP National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio in late June/early July 2016

in O-HI-o - a state which Dr. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) can win in the general election, uinlike other GOP probables in the 2016 horserace for the GOP nomination




.