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Thread: Rand in 3rd with 7% in New Iowa Poll

  1. #1

    Rand in 3rd with 7% in New Iowa Poll

    CNN/ORC

    Huckabee: 21%
    Ryan: 12%
    Paul: 7%
    Bush: 6%
    Christie: 6%
    Perry: 5%
    Walker: 5%
    Rubio: 5%
    Cruz: 4%
    Jindal: 4%
    Santorum: 3%

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/12/politi...oll/index.html



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  3. #2
    This is certainly bad news for Rand, but it's bad news for everyone except for Huckabee and Ryan. I think Cruz has lost at least has much support in Iowa as Rand. I'm not sure what the reason for that is.

  4. #3
    Huckabee isn't running.

    How is Ryan doing so well in Iowa? Has he been there? Is he religious?

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    Huckabee isn't running.

    How is Ryan doing so well in Iowa? Has he been there? Is he religious?
    He was the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012.

  6. #5
    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/im.../12/topia1.pdf
    BASED ON 310 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS SAMPLING ERROR: +/-5.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.


    Thinking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, if the Republican presidential caucus in your
    community were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most
    likely to support.
    Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie,Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Florida Senator Marco Rubio,
    Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, or Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. (RANDOM ORDER.)
    Sept. 8-10 2014
    Huckabee
    21%
    Ryan
    12%
    Paul
    7%
    Bush
    6%
    Christie
    6%
    Perry
    5%
    Rubio
    5%
    Walker
    5%
    Cruz
    4%
    Jindal
    4%
    Santorum
    3%
    Pence
    *
    Someone else (vol.)
    3%
    None/No one (vol.)
    3%
    No opinion
    15%
    Small sample. +/- 5.5% is huge. This poll could easily be Huckabee 15%, Paul 12%, Ryan 2% with 20% undecided...

    Show me a poll where people are forced to make a choice and the sample size is large enough to lower the error to +/- 3% or less and then I'll pay attention. Then again, Iowa caucus day is still about 17 months from now so this or any poll won't really matter. Peoples opinions start to change when the propaganda machine is operating and the persuasion agents are in full force.

  7. #6
    Looks like the Paul forces haven't really been fighting hard enough the past eight years in Iowa. That is all they have to show for eight years of effort.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    Huckabee isn't running.

    How is Ryan doing so well in Iowa? Has he been there? Is he religious?
    Huckabee told Steve Deace that there is a 75% chance he will run.

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...04280493085330

  9. #8
    The only good thing I see about this is it may be a good thing to not peak too early, and it may be good to not be the front runner this early. He won't get nearly as many attacks launched at him through negative TV ads if he stays in the middle of the pack until it gets closer to the vote.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by New York For Paul View Post
    Looks like the Paul forces haven't really been fighting hard enough the past eight years in Iowa. That is all they have to show for eight years of effort.
    Have you been watching at all? They bit and the other side bit back. Hard. You can't win 'em all.

    Establishment forces officially wrested control of the Iowa Republican Party from supporters of Rand Paul on Saturday, a development the victors said would help save the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucus from being marginalized and possibly spell the demise of the Ames Straw Poll.
    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/0...16-107868.html

  12. #10
    Huckabee Report. Iowa gobbles it up on the radio.

  13. #11
    It would be interesting to see the favorability numbers in these polls. It Rand still has a good favorability rating, that means that he may not be people's number one choice right now, but he may be their 2nd or 3rd choice or someone they feel they could vote for. If his favorability rating has actually gone down, then that's a bad sign and might be evidence that this renewed focus on terrorism by the media is hurting him.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    It would be interesting to see the favorability numbers in these polls. It Rand still has a good favorability rating, that means that he may not be people's number one choice right now, but he may be their 2nd or 3rd choice or someone they feel they could vote for. If his favorability rating has actually gone down, then that's a bad sign and might be evidence that this renewed focus on terrorism by the media is hurting him.
    I have yet to see a poll where Rand has bad favoribility. Of course, those who are extremely involved have strong opinions. But Rand has done fine with voters.
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    It's a balance between appeasing his supporters, appeasing the deep state and reaching his own goals.
    ~Resident Badgiraffe




  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by William Tell View Post
    I have yet to see a poll where Rand has bad favoribility. Of course, those who are extremely involved have strong opinions. But Rand has done fine with voters.
    Yeah, I know. But it just seems like Rand has lost support in the polls ever since this ordeal with ISIS exploded.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    Yeah, I know. But it just seems like Rand has lost support in the polls ever since this ordeal with ISIS exploded.
    I don't doubt it, we shall see what the main issues are in '16.
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    It's a balance between appeasing his supporters, appeasing the deep state and reaching his own goals.
    ~Resident Badgiraffe




  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by William Tell View Post
    I don't doubt it, we shall see what the main issues are in '16.
    I hope it's different by then, but I'm afraid we still may have a situation where ISIS is beheading people, scaring people, and making them want to vote for people who will keep them "safe" by enacting a larger police state.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by TaftFan View Post
    Huckabee told Steve Deace that there is a 75% chance he will run.

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...04280493085330
    I bet that is great for his ratings...

    Not a legitimate candidate.



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  20. #17
    Of course I have been watching. I am a major constructive critic of the Paul operation in Iowa for many years.

  21. #18
    Still wondering why this state has any say in picking the early candidates.. A huge travesty.
    The ultimate minority is the individual. Protect the individual from Democracy and you will protect all groups of individuals
    Rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the rights of the individual. - Thomas Jefferson
    I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

    - Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by New York For Paul View Post
    Looks like the Paul forces haven't really been fighting hard enough the past eight years in Iowa. That is all they have to show for eight years of effort.
    Right because New York ever showed a sign of leaning more to the side of liberty. There could be alot of reasons why Rand's numbers are low. It could be because his attempt to sound tough on a "terror" group we created is killing enthusiasm to the very base who made him popular. Or it could be a bad poll. Or it could simply be media manipulation. But you're insulting a group of activist who had at least a top 2 showing of organization and success for advancing liberty, and I really think its uncalled for.
    No - No - No - No
    2016

  23. #20
    Paul got 3rd in Iowa last time. This is awful.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by William Tell View Post
    I don't doubt it, we shall see what the main issues are in '16.
    You can't wait and see. Now is the time to define them. This a project for his base.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    How is Ryan doing so well in Iowa? Has he been there? Is he religious?
    Iowans dig really fast marathon times and votes for the police state.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Kotin View Post
    Still wondering why this state has any say in picking the early candidates.. A huge travesty.
    New Hampshire Republicans just nominated Scott Brown. The sickness is nationwide.

  27. #24
    not good news. Rand must do better in Nevada.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Uriah View Post
    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/im.../12/topia1.pdf


    Small sample. +/- 5.5% is huge. This poll could easily be Huckabee 15%, Paul 12%, Ryan 2% with 20% undecided...

    Show me a poll where people are forced to make a choice and the sample size is large enough to lower the error to +/- 3% or less and then I'll pay attention. Then again, Iowa caucus day is still about 17 months from now so this or any poll won't really matter. Peoples opinions start to change when the propaganda machine is operating and the persuasion agents are in full force.
    Agree. Polls this early already don't mean much... name recognition is a large part of it. People who won't run are listed. And nobody has had to face a debate yet.

    But if you are gonna do a poll they should at least use a bigger sample size. 300 people is really small.

    It doesn't look like they weren't even able to get a reasonable sample of people under 50:


  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by asurfaholic View Post
    Right because New York ever showed a sign of leaning more to the side of liberty. There could be alot of reasons why Rand's numbers are low. It could be because his attempt to sound tough on a "terror" group we created is killing enthusiasm to the very base who made him popular. Or it could be a bad poll. Or it could simply be media manipulation. But you're insulting a group of activist who had at least a top 2 showing of organization and success for advancing liberty, and I really think its uncalled for.
    Rand Paul's operation has already had two huge problems which have attracted massive media attention. In other threads, many have talked about the problem staffers who have hurt the Paul name, especially in Iowa. Read up on it. And many of the paid campaign staffers are under investigation. How can they do a decent job for Ran Paul when they are under pressure.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    I hope it's different by then, but I'm afraid we still may have a situation where ISIS is beheading people, scaring people, and making them want to vote for people who will keep them "safe" by enacting a larger police state.
    Yeah. They're campaigning for the neocons/neolibs just like Osama Bin Laden campaigned for Bush. If you look just below the surface it's obvious that ISIS is a result of our interventionist foreign policy. But some people are too shallow to look below the surface. They'd rather watch sports and reality television and then claim you don't know what you are talking about because you don't go along with their world view.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
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    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    How is Ryan doing so well in Iowa? Has he been there? Is he religious?
    I keep trying to explain this. Ryan is the establishment pick. He is the only real competition. Everyone else will cave to him to get cushy posts, or VP if they are doing well.

    He is the only dude Rand has to worry about.
    In New Zealand:
    The Coastguard is a Charity
    Air Traffic Control is a private company run on user fees
    The DMV is a private non-profit
    Rescue helicopters and ambulances are operated by charities and are plastered with corporate logos
    The agriculture industry has zero subsidies
    5% of the national vote, gets you 5 seats in Parliament
    A tax return has 4 fields
    Business licenses aren't a thing
    Prostitution is legal
    We have a constitutional right to refuse any type of medical care

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by idiom View Post
    I keep trying to explain this. Ryan is the establishment pick. He is the only real competition. Everyone else will cave to him to get cushy posts, or VP if they are doing well.

    He is the only dude Rand has to worry about.
    I think Ryan = Romney and Huckabee = Santorum.

    Which is why I say the party is split three ways: establishment, social cons, libertarian.

    The establishment knows how to play this game. Keep the other two factions divided & distracted so they can pull the win with their less than 40% of the party.

    It really sucks for our wing because a vast majority of the social cons don't care about liberty or small government - so the establishment can pull some of them on the "R is better than D" crap.

    We really are the minority in the R tent and need to better frame our message to the SMALL GOVERNMENT/FISCAL CONSERVATIVE side of things. I frequently win converts to my side of an argument using this tactic.


    War on drugs = flushing money down the toilet, playing whack a mole with the drug dealers, increases the police state

    Education = federal government involvement isn't Constitutional. We send them a dollar and beg for $.75 back.

    War on terror = same as the war on drugs

    Abortion = we will not stop this with laws, we need to stop it by changing hearts. Even if the surgical procedure were outlawed tomorrow, science would develop a way to keep it going.

    Gay marriage = get the state out of it altogether and give it back to the church. The state should only be involved for recording the contract in the case of dissolution, they do NOT need to be involved in permission. You basically make the state an idol in the place of God when you ask Big Brother for permission to marry.

    ^ most social cons use the line "well you're right, but the state is involved so we need to use the state to stop it for now." Um no. We don't.

    Those of us staying inside the R party need to frame our message in a way that appeals to the heart of conservatism. Most Rs are not Ls. I consider staying in the party as a leverage to get more votes than if I was in a 3rd party. Many people do not research candidates at all. Great. I'll take their vote! Simply because we have an R behind our names! (think Thomas Massie, Justin Amash) We get more spotlight for our issues with someone IN office rather than someone running as a third option. Does it suck, yes. But it worked for Ron Paul and got US HERE!
    Last edited by mosquitobite; 09-15-2014 at 07:11 AM.
    Few men have virtue enough to withstand the highest bidder. ~GEORGE WASHINGTON, letter, Aug. 17, 1779

    Quit yer b*tching and whining and GET INVOLVED!!

  34. #30
    Everyone knows getting Rand nominated will be a really tough fight. We better get used to it.

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