Peter Schiff was wrong about one thing.

[Madison320]

He didn't think we could reflate the housing and stock market bubbles. Apparently even with all the holes in those bubbles we were able to inflate them. I guess 8 trillion in borrowing, 4 trillion in QE, 2 trillion in trade deficits and 0% interest was enough to inflate them again. But as Peter Schiff likes to say, "There's a lot of pins out there!"

[TheCount]

@11:55 he makes a claim about a soon to be currency crisis.

[Acala]

Hopefully I can sell my house while the bubble is still inflated!

[cubical]

I just bought a house

[CaptUSA]

I just bought a house

Me too, but if you're planning on staying for awhile, you're golden! I'll be paying this loan off in 2014 dollars! By 2020 or so, it'll look like the greatest thing I ever did! In 30 years, my mortgage payment will be about the equivalent of a happy meal!

[TaftFan]

I think he is wrong about imminent mass inflation.

I think before any inflation, there is going to be massive deflation. That is because that assets have been massively inflated, like stocks and mortgages, and when the crash hits their values will plummet.

[Madison320]

I think he is wrong about imminent mass inflation.

I think before any inflation, there is going to be massive deflation. That is because that assets have been massively inflated, like stocks and mortgages, and when the crash hits their values will plummet.

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but I think by far the most important predictor of prices is the monetary base. All things being equal if you double the monetary base prices will eventually double. We've raised the monetary base from 700 billion to 4 trillion since 2008.

[Peter4Paul2016]

Prophet Or Profit?

Peter Schiff makes for a good television guest... He's loud, a good talker, charismatic (to some), polarizing, and opinionated...

Keep in mind, he also SELLS PRECIOUS METALS. He's always going to describe conditions that are great for buying gold so that he can sell more gold.

It's #1 on his agenda... With Schiff, we're ALWAYS on the cusp of a major crisis. Sometimes he's wrong, sometimes he's right. If you always bet on black every day for twenty years, eventually we'll land on black. And when the economy tanks and he gets it right, he's a genius and a prophet...

I am bullish on gold, always have been. And I often agree with Schiff... I'm just saying, don't forget that his wallet is his priority - getting you to buy more gold (and from him!).

[TaftFan]

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but I think by far the most important predictor of prices is the monetary base. All things being equal if you double the monetary base prices will eventually double. We've raised the monetary base from 700 billion to 4 trillion since 2008.

I agree there should be inflation at some point, but not before deflation. And I'm not sure how long it will take the economy to get going again after the next crash.

There really isn't anything preventing our economy from perpetually rising and deflating, never having the chance to be prosperous and allow the monetary base to enter the real economy.

[cubical]

Prophet Or Profit?

Peter Schiff makes for a good television guest... He's loud, a good talker, charismatic (to some), polarizing, and opinionated...

Keep in mind, he also SELLS PRECIOUS METALS. He's always going to describe conditions that are great for buying gold so that he can sell more gold.

It's #1 on his agenda... With Schiff, we're ALWAYS on the cusp of a major crisis. Sometimes he's wrong, sometimes he's right. If you always bet on black every day for twenty years, eventually we'll land on black. And when the economy tanks and he gets it right, he's a genius and a prophet...

I am bullish on gold, always have been. And I often agree with Schiff... I'm just saying, don't forget that his wallet is his priority - getting you to buy more gold (and from him!).

[cubical]

I agree there should be inflation at some point, but not before deflation. And I'm not sure how long it will take the economy to get going again after the next crash.

There really isn't anything preventing our economy from perpetually rising and deflating, never having the chance to be prosperous and allow the monetary base to enter the real economy.

Give me a good example of an economy that went through any real deflation under the current IMF model. 2008 was the closest thing we have had and it was very brief and far from extreme. Yes, there might be deflation before hyperinflation, but why would you risk being too late? Its better to be 10 years too early than 10 minutes too late.

[TaftFan]

Give me a good example of an economy that went through any real deflation under the current IMF model. 2008 was the closest thing we have had and it was very brief and far from extreme. Yes, there might be deflation before hyperinflation, but why would you risk being too late? Its better to be 10 years too early than 10 minutes too late.

We are in unchartered territory I would think.

The inflation is going into assets, not consumer pockets. When the economy crashes, people will not be spending and borrowing. So that asset inflation will begin again. I wouldn't risk anything, I am just saying I don't think Schiff has his timeline right.

This was discussed in a recent interview with Mike Shedlock and David Stockman.

[Vanguard101]

Every1 gets $#@! wrong often.

[cubical]

We are in unchartered territory I would think.

The inflation is going into assets, not consumer pockets. When the economy crashes, people will not be spending and borrowing. So that asset inflation will begin again. I wouldn't risk anything, I am just saying I don't think Schiff has his timeline right.

This was discussed in a recent interview with Mike Shedlock and David Stockman.

You don't know how the economy will be crashing.

You may find this interesting.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/de...inflation.html

[oyarde]

I just bought a house

Not a big deal as long as you are going to keep it and live in it for 30 yrs .

[TheCount]

You don't know how the economy will be crashing.

You may find this interesting.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/de...inflation.html

Let's defend a man who was right exactly once by using a blog that has never been right.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Let's defend a man who was right exactly once by using a blog that has never been right.

How's it going, PRB?

[Zippyjuan]

Schiff also said we would likely have hyperinflation and gold would be $2000 to $5000 an ounce by now. His business profits by selling pessimism.

[KingNothing]

All things being equal if you double the monetary base prices will eventually double.

That isn't true at all. The economy is not that simple. Where those dollars go, both in terms of economic sector and area of the globe, as well as the speed with which those dollars move, play a far more important role than the amount of increase or decrease in monetary base.

[Zippyjuan]

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but I think by far the most important predictor of prices is the monetary base. All things being equal if you double the monetary base prices will eventually double. We've raised the monetary base from 700 billion to 4 trillion since 2008.

Increasing the amount of money banks are not lending out does not necessarily translate to any level of price inflation- high or low. Over 90% of the Monetary Base is bank reserves. (the Monetary Base is cash money plus bank reserves). Bank reserves are not a measure of money supply and are not predictory of inflation. They are completely unrelated. Back in 2008, excess reserves were basically zero- the growth of the Monetary Base has been growing excess bank reserves- money not being lent out or spent. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNS

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

His business profits by selling pessimism.

I never heard of this Schiff person, but he can't be any worse that the people selling false optimism.

[Zippyjuan]

You are right. The world is coming to an end. Life sucks and just gets worse. Why should anybody be happy?

Some say Schiff predicted the Great Recession. He is always predicting the next Great Recession- he got "lucky" once. He eventually was right once- now some think he is practically some economic "god".

[DamianTV]

Where I live currently, we still have 1 in 16 homes in Foreclosure. I wouldnt exactly call that a recovery. MSM will always spin everything to their favor and talk about how great it is to see the price of houses going up again, which is spun to the economy has totally recovered. All they are doing is putting lipstick on a chicken. Its still a $#@!ing chicken regardless of how much makeup you put on it.

Has anyone ever asked themselves how we could be "showing signs of recovery" for six years straight while things do not improve one damn bit for Main Street?

[Zippyjuan]

Your area may be an oddity.
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/...ly-090214.html

July represents 18 consecutive months of at least a 20% year-over-year decline in the national inventory of foreclosed homes.

All but 2 states posted double-digit declines in foreclosures year over year. The District of Columbia saw a 6.3% decline and the state of Wyoming saw a 14.6% increase in foreclosures year over year.

Thirty-one states show declines in year-over-year foreclosure inventory of greater than 30%, with Arizona and Utah experiencing declines at 49% each.

The 5 states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes were: New Jersey (5.7%), Florida (4.8%), New York (4.3%), Hawaii (3.0%) and Maine (2.7%).

The 5 states with the lowest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes were: Nebraska (0.4%), Alaska (0.4%), Arizona (0.5%), Minnesota (0.5%) and North Dakota (0.5%).

More at link.

What area are you in? (one in sixteen would be over six percent which is higher than the worst state average)

[jllundqu]

All I hear is "Crash is coming!" "Crash is imminent!" Bubble! Bubble! Next one will be the crash of crashes!!!!

Every year the prophets say it and every year nothing happens.

When will this catasrophe happen, now?

[Zippyjuan]

Soon! They promise! Buy their products and learn how to protect yourself from the coming crisis! You too can profit from the situation! (it has worked well for Schiff- he certainly profits from it- even if the products he sells don't perform well).

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

You are right. The world is coming to an end. Life sucks and just gets worse. Why should anybody be happy?

No, you're right. American glory is right around the corner. Technology is great and it just keeps getting better. Why should anybody be realistic?

Some say Schiff predicted the Great Recession. He is always predicting the next Great Recession- he got "lucky" once. He eventually was right once- now some think he is practically some economic "god".

People on TV say all kinds of things. They're practically gods just because they're on TV.

[Zippyjuan]

People on TV say all kinds of things. They're practically gods just because they're on TV.

That's Peter!

Life is always good and bad. Even the "good old days" really weren't that great. But I think focusing only on the bad is too depressing so I do try to counterbalance it with some of the "good news".

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Soon! They promise! Buy their products ...

Sounds like what politicians and other peddlers say about America coming back.

Anyway, there will be no crash. America will continue is descent that it has been experiencing for decades. Asia will continue its ascent.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

That's Peter!

Life is always good and bad. Even the "good old days" really weren't that great. But I think focusing only on the bad is too depressing so I do try to counterbalance it with some of the "good news".

So you watch/know about this Peter fellow. You are also espousing the modern day life philosophy of balance. Maybe you should turn off the TV and get an original thought.