No Global Warming In 19 Years

[donnay]

McKitrick paper: no warming for 19 years

The Guardian in 2009 predicted five years of rapid warming:

The world faces record-breaking temperatures as the sun’s activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted for the next five years, according to a study.

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.

The research, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Fail. Five more years of no warming followed.

Professsor Ross McKitrick says in a new paper that the warming pause has now lasted an astonishing 19 years at the surface and 16-26 years in the lower troposphere:



Continued...

[brushfire]

Seeeeee? The forced CFLs worked!

I just cant believe it <sniffle>. We should not even be here <sniffle>. Oh thank you central planners! Thank you! <sniffle> And thank you Al Gore. For inventing the internet AND global warming.

[presence]

When you leave a cup of ice water on the counter... the ice slowly melts away while the fluid remains the same temperature. When the ice is all gone; only then does the fluid begins to rise in temperature; the ice acts as a buffer absorbing latent heat while it goes through phase transistion.

Latent heat is the energy released or absorbed by a body or a thermodynamic system during a constant-temperature process. A typical example is a change of state of matter, meaning a phase transition such as the melting of ice or the boiling of water.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat

Here's sea ice VOLUME:







The latent heat of fusion of ice is 80 cal/g/°C; The specific heat of water is 1 cal/g/°C
Every gram of ice that melts into water (without changing temperature) takes 80 calories.
Once that ice is water, it only takes 1 calorie to raise it 1 degree from there forward until the point of vaporization

[brushfire]

How do we know that we haven't been sitting on an "ice surplus" for the last 5,000 years?

"Normal" is relative. History suggests that climate change is "normal", and it has existed long before Al Gore, or any of his distant relatives.

I'm all for clean air, but I believe this whole man made climate change (aka global warming) is horsesh!t.

[presence]

How do we know that we haven't been sitting on an "ice surplus" for the last 5,000 years?

Well enough. Just don't tell me the ice isn't melting.

[donnay]

Well enough. Just don't tell me the ice isn't melting.

In the summertime--yes.

[presence]

In the summertime--yes.

Which month were you calling the summertime?

[donnay]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...-FREE-now.html

[presence]

What's heavier?



100 sqft of tile 1/4" thick

or

50 sqft of concrete 10 feet thick.

[brushfire]

Well enough. Just don't tell me the ice isn't melting.

My property used to be under lots of ice at one time. How could I dispute it?
https://www.isgs.illinois.edu/outrea...-million-years

In my part of the country, every record low temperature set in the 20th century (but 1), happened during my childhood (I am not 100 years old - I 'm talking back in the 70's). I grew up wondering whether my perspective had changed, or whether the climate had changed...

This past winter and summer were exactly like I'd remembered, so I suppose the weather did change. But then... the weather is always changing, isnt it? Now I reserve the right to change my position, but so far I'm nowhere near convinced that man has even a remotely significant impact on the weather. The earth is ever changing, and its arrogant and foolish for "man" to think he can control everything. Though I will not dispute, that its an inherent trait of man to want to control everything.

Just the same, all that said, lets say all the ice did melt. BFD - It will not happen but gradually, for a very very long time. Yet, I'm betting man would still be here, and still trying to control everything. By then, Gore will have probably invented time travel, and he'll be starting some other panic that could benefit his class of peeps.

[oyarde]

I am not expecting any global warming this year as well . Probably spend Sunday cutting wood .

[pcosmar]

Been a cool summer here. High temps in the 50s and 60s through August. Might get warm today,, expecting 70.

[donnay]

Which month were you calling the summertime?

Antarctic Conditions
Data collections at the University of Illinois confirm summer sea ice in the Arctic reached a 30-year minimum in 2007, but they also prove the largely unreported fact that summer sea ice spread in the Antarctic reached a 30-year maximum the same year. Researchers agree about the summer sea ice spread.

However, here is where consensus ends. Although most scientists seem to agree that the Arctic is losing ice, there is little agreement as to Antarctic conditions. Some say the Antarctic is stable, and others say it is melting like the Arctic ice cap. NASA satellite readings show West Antarctica “has been losing more than a hundred cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year since 2002.” NASA scientists attribute the loss of western ice to a decrease in mass due to warming waters causing ice shelf collapse. They ominously report, “Not much is going on in East Antarctica — yet.”

Nothing is likely to. The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) recently measured the temperature of sea water there and found it to be around the freezing point “and not at higher temperatures widely blamed for the break-up of 10 shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula.” NPI researcher Ole Anders Noest wrote, “This situation seems to be stable.” And, NASA scientists Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan published a report of satellite data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters charting a 30-year minimum snow melt in the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009.

Worst-case Scenario
Regardless of whether, where, or how much ice is melting, total global sea ice extent in the past 30 years shows practically no trend, with 2008 and 2009 peak sea ice seasons equivalent to the 1979-2000 mean.

But consider for a moment a worst-case scenario. What would happen if all of the Arctic sea ice melted? “Sea level would not rise by so much as a millimeter,” said Lord Christopher Monckton, former U.K. science advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Just as melting ice cubes in a glass of water don’t make it overflow, melting sea ice does not affect sea level.

Monckton is not alone in claiming Arctic ice melt poses no threat. Roy W. Spencer, a former NASA scientist, points out glaciers have been retreating for more than 100 years, well before the dawn of the Industrial Age. “A few retreating glaciers are even revealing old tree stumps,” he writes on his blog. “How did those get there? Planted by skeptics?” Obviously, if retreating glaciers expose tree stumps, then these glaciers could not always have been there and are not shrinking to unprecedented sizes.

Spencer was among 170 scientists from around the world who signed an open letter to the UN Secretary-General prior to the Copenhagen Climate Conference, calling for “convincing observational evidence” to support claims of dangerous AGW. Among the itemized list of alarmist assertions they challenged was “worldwide glacier retreat, and sea ice melting in Polar Regions, is unusual and related to increases in human GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions.” In other words, 170 highly qualified scientists stake their professional reputations that melting polar ice caps pose no threat whatsoever.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/e...e-caps-melting

[donnay]

Been a cool summer here. High temps in the 50s and 60s through August. Might get warm today,, expecting 70.

Same here, it was a cool summer for us. Went camping the first two weeks in August and the night time temps got down into the upper 40s.

[PaulConventionWV]

Yawn, wake me up when global warming actually does something other than cause people's imaginations to run wild.

[oyarde]

Been a cool summer here. High temps in the 50s and 60s through August. Might get warm today,, expecting 70.

More likely to see bigfoot than global warming after last winter and this summer .

[juleswin]

When you leave a cup of ice water on the counter... the ice slowly melts away while the fluid remains the same temperature. When the ice is all gone; only then does the fluid begins to rise in temperature; the ice acts as a buffer absorbing latent heat while it goes through phase transistion.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat

Here's sea ice VOLUME:







The latent heat of fusion of ice is 80 cal/g/°C; The specific heat of water is 1 cal/g/°C
Every gram of ice that melts into water (without changing temperature) takes 80 calories.
Once that ice is water, it only takes 1 calorie to raise it 1 degree from there forward until the point of vaporization

This is just bull$#@!, first of all, latent heat of fusion can explain why ocean temps are not rising, but what about atmospheric temperatures? Also you can easily tell that this graph is bull$#@! by looking at the projection for sept 2016 where it predicts 0 (zero) volume for sea ice. We are all going to be alive come sept 2016 and we could easily tell how good of a predictor the guys/gals who made the graph are.

Lastly, an ice cube will continue to melt at room temperature regardless of whether to raise the temperature or not. The fact that ice is melting doesn't say whether we are experiencing global warming or not. All it says is that the temperature has come down from when all that ice was formed.

Just take look at the calculated volumes for march from 1979 - 2011. It shows that ice volumes went from 33000 to 19500. That my friends is a 40.9% decrease in ice during the month of march. I dont know about you guys, but I dont its true. Someone made a big error in their calculation

[presence]

This is just bull$#@!

[]

you can easily tell that this graph is bull$#@! by looking at the projection for sept 2016 where it predicts 0 (zero) volume for sea ice.

Its just a mathematical "polynomial" regression line; that doesn't make it bull$#@!.

Here's "tanh" regression fitted to the data:




Here's another way to look at it:




Large chunk of ice in 1979.
Thin film of ice (possibly "extending"/"covering" more area at cherry picked times and locations) 2012.

[FindLiberty]

Pirates!

[juleswin]

Its just a mathematical "polynomial" regression line; that doesn't make it bull$#@!.

Here's "tanh" regression fitted to the data:

So if we do nothing and continue to live the way we have been living, following the trend line from your original graph, we should be expecting to see about 0 (give 1000 volume unit or so) of ice in sept 2016? Is this right?

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm still waiting for someone to show me how global warming has or ever will have a tangible effect on my life.

[francisco]

[jllundqu]