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Thread: U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Expands at 4.0% Rate

  1. #1

    U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Expands at 4.0% Rate

    Remember not that long ago when GDP shrank by 2% in the first quarter? Everybody saying it was the beginning of the next collapse? It could not have been weather related? Second quarter showed a strong recovery from that.

    Economy Grew at Best Six-Month Stretch in 10 Years in Second Half of 2013

    WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy surged in the second quarter, more than offsetting a first-quarter contraction and putting growth back on an upward trajectory in 2014.

    Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast growth at a 3.0% pace for the quarter.

    An upturn in inventory building by businesses and an acceleration in consumer spending led the broad gains and offset a larger drag from increased imports.

    The solid improvement comes on the heels of a first quarter when the economy shrank at a 2.1% pace. While still the worst quarter of the recovery that began in mid-2009, the first-quarter figure reflects an upward revision from a previously estimated 2.9% contraction.

    Over the past year, the economy grew 2.4%—slightly ahead of the 2.3% average annual gain from recovery's start until the end of 2013, before an unusually cold winter socked the economy.

    The first quarter "was an anomaly and growth will be much stronger through the rest of this year," said PNC Financial Services Group economist Stuart Hoffman. "Consumers are spending thanks to job and income gains, and with borrowing costs still low businesses are investing to meet stronger demand."




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  3. #2
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-c...od=_newsreel_5

    U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises
    Conference Board Survey Shows Americans Are More Upbeat About Labor Markets

    A more upbeat mood among U.S. consumers offers the latest evidence that the economy may be picking up after little growth in the first half of the year.

    The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence rose to 90.9 in July from 86.4 in June, This month's reading is the highest since October 2007, just before the last recession, and well above the 85.0 expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

    The report comes a day before economists get their first complete look at how the economy fared in the second quarter of the year. The Commerce Department on Wednesday releases its assessment of gross domestic product, the most complete measure of economic output, along with benchmark revisions going back a few years.

  4. #3
    Inb4 it gets revised downward. (Not hard, as it probably won't get "corrected" for a year).
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  5. #4
    First quarter was revised- from minus 2.9% to minus 2.1%- making it not quite as bad as first reported. Yes, it probably will get revised. Figures are preliminary until all of the data comes in.

  6. #5
    Well I feel richer already, lol.
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  7. #6
    http://www.financeandeconomics.org/t...lse-statistic/

    EXCERPT (emphasis added): Keynesianism and Monetarism is based in large measure on the delusion that the GDP statistic is actually economic growth and not just growth in the money in the economy. The only way this process will cease is when all confidence is lost in the purchasing-power of fiat money. Only then, in the post mortem, might the mistake of confusing an accounting identity for the real thing become clear to the economic establishment and the wider population at large.
    Last edited by buenijo; 08-02-2014 at 10:07 AM.
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  8. #7
    LOL@chart in OP. Yeah those last two bars look legit. Has the GDP measure been changed to include hot air generation in DC?
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  9. #8
    That's 4% before the follow up downward correcting revisions (due out sometime AFTER the midterm elections).



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  11. #9
    This is great news...for CEOs.

    Let me ask this question: how many of you have gotten a raise within the past two years? If yes, does it offset the losses due to inflation? Are you better off financially than you were a decade ago?
    Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. -James Madison

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    LOL@chart in OP. Yeah those last two bars look legit.
    Last quarter's drop was mostly due to a decline in inventories and exports. Those inventories were replaced in this quarter, and exports increased. In other words, the same thing that caused the doomgasm last quarter (with no critical thought or analysis whatsoever) caused this increase, which unsurprisingly is being criticized and analyzed this quarter by the standard economic doom crowd.


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  13. #11
    Uh oh. We got another one of Zippy's Fed chart lover handles here.

    Friendly note to The Count and other shills. At least try to make it look like your sig is created by different people, ok?
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  14. #12
    What good does that 2% do if inflation is running at 10%?

    People who have their wealth in dollars are still losing 8%.

  15. #13
    The Dow Jones is doing good too, but should we really be jumping for joy that the bureaucrats and banksters are richer than ever?

  16. #14
    at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
    This is usually code for "manipulated"
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  17. #15
    OK , Gdp up , wages and employment flat , gdp equal to QE . Food inflation higher , Who wins ? not a citizen .

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Uh oh. We got another one of Zippy's Fed chart lover handles here.

    Friendly note to The Count and other shills. At least try to make it look like your sig is created by different people, ok?
    Wait, am I Zippy or am I those guys from Quatloos? You're going to have to decide which of your boogeymen I am, because you're confusing me.


    Also, those charts are directly from the Zerohedge article on the topic. They must be Fed shills too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Pinochet is the model
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Liberty preserving authoritarianism.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Enforced internal open borders was one of the worst elements of the Constitution.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    First quarter was revised- from minus 2.9% to minus 2.1%- making it not quite as bad as first reported. Yes, it probably will get revised. Figures are preliminary until all of the data comes in.
    Are you cracked? What basis does anyone with an IQ higher than the single digits for believing anything these jokers say, especially when revisions paint less horrid pictures than the originals?

    You really need to lay off the dope.
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  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by DFF View Post
    What good does that 2% do if inflation is running at 10%?

    People who have their wealth in dollars are still losing 8%.
    Oh for Pete's sake don't go asking questions that make people look at the truth.

    What's the matter with you?

    +rep for rubbing people's noses in the concept of REAL GDP.
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    There is only one correct way: freedom. All other solutions are non-solutions.

    It appears that artificial intelligence is at least slightly superior to natural stupidity.

    Our words make us the ghosts that we are.

    Convincing the world he didn't exist was the Devil's second greatest trick; the first was convincing us that God didn't exist.

  22. #19
    Price increases appear as an increase in GDP unless adjusted for the REAL inflation rate, which they are not.
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  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Remember not that long ago when GDP shrank by 2% in the first quarter? Everybody saying it was the beginning of the next collapse? It could not have been weather related? Second quarter showed a strong recovery from that.
    Ha! So when it's a bad number the weather caused it but when it's a good number it must be real? The weather shifted GDP from Q1 into Q2. GDP is averaging 1% for the year. A good GDP number would have been 6 or 7%.

    Not that I put much faith in the GDP.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    LOL@chart in OP. Yeah those last two bars look legit. Has the GDP measure been changed to include hot air generation in DC?
    Must have been our turn for the "hookers and coke" GDP adjustment that is all the rage in Europe.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Price increases appear as an increase in GDP unless adjusted for the REAL inflation rate, which they are not.
    And as price increases pick up the difference between the CPI and actual price increases will become larger. We may never see another official recession.

  26. #23
    Happy times are here again!!!! 4% growth must mean that wages are up, debt is down, discretionary income is booming, food prices are falling, gas is cheap, and politicians are trustworthy!! Now go buy more $#@! you don't need, slave!

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  27. #24
    4 percent minus 2.9 percent is 1.1 percent. Great recovery!



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by jllundqu View Post
    Happy times are here again!!!! 4% growth must mean that wages are up, debt is down, discretionary income is booming, food prices are falling, gas is cheap, and politicians are trustworthy!! Now go buy more $#@! you don't need, slave!

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    Somehow they've managed to disconnect the "economy" from the "standard of living". The "economy" is booming while the "standard of living" is falling.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Somehow they've managed to disconnect the "economy" from the "standard of living". The "economy" is booming while the "standard of living" is falling.
    The standard of living for which class? The rich are getting richer, and it isn't because of the greedy free market. Its because government continuously passes new laws and regulations that stifle competition, productivity, and innovation, leaving those who are currently "able" that much more powerful.
    No more IRS.
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  31. #27
    Anybody on this forum ever ask the OP why he is on here? I'm in the mood for some comedy tonight.
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    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
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    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




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  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Vanguard101 View Post
    4 percent minus 2.9 percent is 1.1 percent. Great recovery!
    Actually the four percent growth is from the same quarter a year earlier- not the previous one. The increase from the previous quarter was six percent- not two.

    Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
    6.0 percent, or $250.7 billion, in the second quarter
    to a level of $17,294.7 billion.
    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by James Madison View Post
    Are you better off financially than you were a decade ago?
    Yes.



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