New Hampshire (WMUR): Christie 19% Paul 14% Bush 11% Rubio 8% Cruz 5%

[LibertyEsq]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc..._2016_0710.pdf

UPDATE Full Data: https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh....mary071014.pdf

Christie: 19%
Paul: 14%
Bush: 11%
Rubio: 8%
Cruz: 5%
Ryan: 5%
Jindal: 5%
Walker: 3%

Very low sample size; 87% of voters "still trying to decide"

Good News: We are 20 points ahead of Christie on net favorability!

[ItsTime]

Even WMUR are saying their polls are useless/meaningless.

I have a bit of inside info. Heard it more than once.

Christie got the bump because he endorsed NSA contractor Walt Havenstein in the Governor race. Sooooooooo Rand should endorse liberty candidate Andrew Hemingway (which is polling better, for what that is worth). It is win win for Rand.

[LibertyEsq]

I think the Club for Growth/AFP/Koch PACs will be behind Rand if it comes down to Rand v. Christie in this race. I remember the Christie v. Lonegan primary and they were all against Christie

[ItsTime]

I think the Club for Growth/AFP/Koch PACs will be behind Rand if it comes down to Rand v. Christie in this race. I remember the Christie v. Lonegan primary and they were all against Christie

But he will need to be seen as supporting the liberty candidates in NH (in this primary). Many of the leaders in the liberty movement, that I have talked to, are wondering why he hasn't endorsed Hemingway yet. They will fight for Rand but he will need to show he is willing to fight for them.

[LibertyEsq]

But he will need to be seen as supporting the liberty candidates in NH (in this primary). Many of the leaders in the liberty movement, that I have talked to, are wondering why he hasn't endorsed Hemingway yet. They will fight for Rand but he will need to show he is willing to fight for them.

Didn't Hemingway run the Gingrich campaign? I.e. against Ron

[AlexAmore]

Didn't Hemingway run the Gingrich campaign? I.e. against Ron

I didn't know about that. Maybe Andrew is a bit hawkish which doesn't mean crap as a governor.

[Vanguard101]

Didn't Hemingway run the Gingrich campaign? I.e. against Ron

He probably put career first. I probably would have done the same. I have an internship right now for a non-liberty candidate. Wasn't there some1 who worked in the Romney campaign that supported Ron? It's pretty common.

I didn't know about that. Maybe Andrew is a bit hawkish which doesn't mean crap as a governor.

Doubt it.


Rand should def support Hemingway right now. That could really come a long way. The same for Marilinda.

[Keith and stuff]

Didn't Hemingway run the Gingrich campaign? I.e. against Ron

As a job. Since NH is the most political state in the nation, the most important state for Presidential politics and has the most candidates, it's common for liberty folks to work for establishment folks and the opposite is also true. For example. Rand Paul just hired the guy in NH that ran Santorum's national campaign to be the leader of his New England campaign. Here is another example. Sen Andy Sanborn was a co-chair of Ron Paul's NH 2012 campaign and his wife was the chair of Gingrich's NH 2012 campaign.

Andrew Hemingway is a former head of the Republican Liberty Caucus of NH and the most pro-liberty major party candidate running for governor in the entire nation. I'm hopeful that both Ron Paul and Rand Paul endorse him.

As to this poll; yes, Christie got a bump from his recent visit to NH. But the sample was extremely small. Rand needs to step up his game in NH. Well, he just did that, buy hiring the Santorum guy. But that isn't newsworthy so it isn't going to help make Paul more known in NH.

[LibertyEsq]

Yeah but did Hemingway need a job? I thought he was an entrepreneur. Anyway I don't really have a problem with him working for the Gingrich campaign but the point is you can't really expect Rand to go all-out for him when he campaigned against his father.

[Keith and stuff]

Yeah but did Hemingway need a job? I thought he was an entrepreneur. Anyway I don't really have a problem with him working for the Gingrich campaign but the point is you can't really expect Rand to go all-out for him when he campaigned against his father.

Rand Paul hired the national campaign leader for Santorum. Santorum was by far the least liberty minded of the top tier candidates running in 2012. Hemingway just ran the NH campaign and social media for Gingrich. The Pauls should have some understanding of NH politics by now...

But yeah, I don't expect the Pauls to do anything but I sure would like them to endorse Hemingway. It makes a lot of sense to me. They certainly endorse less liberty candidates and candidates doing a lot worse in the polls.

[Vanguard101]

I don't see why he wouldn't endorse Hemingway. NH is a key state and that could help if he's governor.

[ItsTime]

I have known Hemingway personally for awhile. He is a liberty guy through and through. A liberty guy that can connect with mainstream republicans as well.

Keith you don't expect? Or do expect?

Christie is here doing fundraisers for the NHGOP as well. At this point I see Rand Paul as behind in the game.... Time for him to step up.

[ItsTime]

I should mention the Ron Paul grassroots is flocking to Hemingway. He has the strongest (not paid) ground game in the state right now.

[Keith and stuff]

I don't see why he wouldn't endorse Hemingway. NH is a key state and that could help if he's governor.

I agree. It is a smart move.

I have known Hemingway personally for awhile. He is a liberty guy through and through. A liberty guy that can connect with mainstream republicans as well.

Keith you don't expect? Or do expect?

Christie is here doing fundraisers for the NHGOP as well. At this point I see Rand Paul as behind in the game.... Time for him to step up.

I edited my post a little Sorry if I wasn't clear. I like Hemingway and hope he wins

[CaptainAmerica]

NH where laws do not apply to voter fraud and vote theft

[Keith and stuff]

There was a conviction recently He was a m$#@! that voted in NH because his vote didn't matter in MA. It was a pretty serious punishment ($6,200). I do agree that New Hampshire's voting laws are pretty open. There is a voter ID law in NH but it isn't the strongest in the nation, by a long shot. It is confusing for someone that likes liberty. Papers please is what the Nazi scum did. So it is hard to push Nazi-like behavior and call it freedom, you know? NH needs voting law reform. On the other hand, so do pretty much all states. At least the NH laws are how Rand Paul wants them to be in every state, when it comes to ex-felons voting. 35 states still don't reach Rand Paul's level.

But it's a Northern New England thing. Not only was Northern New England by far Ron Paul's best region in the nation in 2012, it has the least restrictive voting laws in the nation (although they are more restrictive in NH than in ME or VT, generally). http://felonvoting.procon.org/view.r...ourceID=000286

[LibertyEsq]

Full Data: https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh....mary071014.pdf

Some good news in there. 16% say they would not vote for Christie while only 3% say the same for Paul.

Paul's net favorability is higher than Christie's, nearly tied with Christie on "second choice" numbers.

[LibertyEsq]

Look at page 7 of the full numbers! Rand Paul leads the field on the question of electability! By an 11 percent margin, voters think PAUL is electable, compared to a 3% margin for Christie!

We are also 20 points ahead of Christie on net favorability! NH Voters are ready to vote for Rand we just need to start reaching out!

[ItsTime]

Andrew Hemingway....

[anaconda]

NH where laws do not apply to voter fraud and vote theft

This is one of my old favorites:

[CPUd]

I would say this is indicative of a large percentage of undecideds:

Romney's been very clear on the subject of 2016.

"The answer is no, I'm not running for president in 2016. It's time for someone else to take that responsibility and I'll be supporting our nominee," he told anchor Wolf Blitzer in February

It would be damn interesting if Mitt endorses Rand after Super Tuesday.

[Liberty74]

If 39% of NH voters would vote for Romney in their 2016 primary, are NH voters really that bright? Doesn't this also suggest ground games are really overrated in the end?

Where's the f'ing hope at for NH or this country in general? Dear god...

[surf]

that's got to be Christy Brinkley. they aren't that dumb.

[daviddee]

...

[FriedChicken]

That Romney poll is pretty scary.
Rand is doing good in polls now and I expect him to be competitive but I don't expect him to win if that many people like Romney there. I just have a hard time believe Rand and Romney will have THAT much overlap in support.

This could also explain why he seems to making more of a play for Iowa right now. Its an unending argument on these forums that I'm not wanting to rehash but gaining momentum from an IA win might be becoming part of his strategy for NH or its possible he's positioning himself to win the nomination while placing 2nd in NH.

I just think NH is more out of reach than we realize.

[LibertyEsq]

That Romney poll is pretty scary.
Rand is doing good in polls now and I expect him to be competitive but I don't expect him to win if that many people like Romney there. I just have a hard time believe Rand and Romney will have THAT much overlap in support.

This could also explain why he seems to making more of a play for Iowa right now. Its an unending argument on these forums that I'm not wanting to rehash but gaining momentum from an IA win might be becoming part of his strategy for NH or its possible he's positioning himself to win the nomination while placing 2nd in NH.

I just think NH is more out of reach than we realize.

I can't think of a single scenario where NH is less winnable than South Carolina or Florida...we need BOTH IA and NH

[TomtheTinker]

As I have been ranting on for years, NH is a bedroom community of Massachusetts.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/art...altered_state/

Massholes have assimilated most of NH politics and each year more and more Massholes jump the border. Further diluting most last remnants of the "Live Free or Die" state - which actually died in the 90s. NH is full of first generation people (who were 2nd and 3rd generation Massholes) and the people who were multi-generation NH or true "Live Free or Die" left decades ago. It is a nice slogan for the license plates though.

Mass-holes (Southern NH residents) like their Republicans to be "Checked Pants" like Romney, Christie, McCain, Dole, etc.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...t%20Republican


P.S. Ignoring poll results was a mistake in 2008 with Ron... Hopefully the same mistakes are not made in 2016 with Rand.

(Queue F.S.P. to deny reality)

to be fair my cousin grew up in Mass and moved to NH in his early 20s. He is one of the most free minded and liberty orientated person I have ever known.

[TomtheTinker]

I can't think of a single scenario where NH is less winnable than South Carolina or Florida...we need BOTH IA and NH

January
Monday, January 18 Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, January 26 New Hampshire
February
Tuesday, February 2 Colorado caucuses
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri
Utah
Saturday, February 6 Nevada caucuses
Saturday, February 13 South Carolina
Tuesday, February 16 North Carolina
Tuesday, February 23 Arizona
Michigan

Read more at http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...JOSTmAxIHzD.99

If this is correct I don't see south Carolina being nearly as important as is was last time around.

[LibertyEsq]

January
Monday, January 18 Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, January 26 New Hampshire
February
Tuesday, February 2 Colorado caucuses
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri
Utah
Saturday, February 6 Nevada caucuses
Saturday, February 13 South Carolina
Tuesday, February 16 North Carolina
Tuesday, February 23 Arizona
Michigan

Read more at http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...JOSTmAxIHzD.99

If this is correct I don't see south Carolina being nearly as important as is was last time around.

Whoa! The Colorado and Minnesota caucuses got seriously moved up. Is this confirmed? That seems like VERY good news for us

[Vanguard101]

I could see Paul winning South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire. He has to convince Haley. Hopefully, Tim Scott will rally behind him. We know Mark Sanford will. Not sure how every1 here feels about Gowdy, but I think he could also help. Michigan could be great if Amash and Mcmillin can convince some of the others to help rally for him as well.