Zogby national poll: Rand Paul 20%, Christie 13%, Bush 13%, Walker 8%, Rubio 7%

[jct74]

Rand Paul Leads the GOP Pack for 2016 -- And Not By a Little

by John Zogby
7/09/2014 @ 2:15PM

A new Zogby Analytics poll of likely Republican primary voters in 2016 shows Rand Paul starting to build a lead over better known – and more establishment – GOP figures. The poll of 282 likely and eligible voters in GOP presidential primaries was conducted June 27-29 and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-6 percentage points.

In the poll, the junior Senator from Kentucky polls 20%, followed by “Establishment” candidates New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 13% each. In fourth place is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 8%, then Florida Senator Marco Rubio 7%, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindahl 4%, and New Mexico Governor Suzanna Martinez, Ohio Governor John Kasich, and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley all with 1% each.

This is the first time a GOP candidate has reached 20% in a crowded field and the first time a Zogby poll has shown someone emerging a bit from the pack. Obviously it is too early to predict outcomes or draw lasting conclusion but here are some points to consider:

...

read more:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogb...t-by-a-little/

[limequat]

Note: no Huckabee, no Cruz

[robertwerden]

I knew from the second Rand endorsed Romney, that a deal was struck. Ron played a very strong hand in getting his son the future nomination. This was a master move.
From everything I have seen, the GOP, the media and the ground forces for positioning have been paying back Ron for the deal he made at the convention.
Now he just has to steal enough swing votes from Clinton and win the WH.

[LibertyEsq]

Note: no Huckabee, no Cruz

Good point. I think one of the two will run.

This poll is still VERY good news though! If nothing else it shows that Rand is the next choice for Cruz and Huckabee voters (which we really knew already)

[LibertyEsq]

No one should let this great news make us complacent - it should have the opposite effect. We should be working to solidify this lead, I see no reason why we can't win both Iowa and NH if we keep up the momentum...Rand has all but declared his candidacy at this point

[twomp]

front runner

[LibertyEsq]

Sent it to Realclearpolitics as a tip, we'll see if they include it

[Crashland]

What's with the stupidly small sample size though? You would think these researchers would want to give their poll more credibility than a 6% MOE

[limequat]

That's all the republicans they could find.

[William Tell]

What's with the stupidly small sample size though? You would think these researchers would want to give their poll more credibility than a 6% MOE

Yeah, I don't think it's very credible. I wish, I suppose it could be since they left Ted and Huck out.

[rprprs]

Note: no Huckabee, no Cruz

Duly noted. But why were they omitted?

[Crashland]

And oddly they sampled over twice as many Democrats for the democratic primary in the same poll. Because of the two primaries, we really need to get that margin of error down for the democrats so we can really know who the frontrunner is

[Tywysog Cymru]

No one should let this great news make us complacent - it should have the opposite effect. We should be working to solidify this lead, I see no reason why we can't win both Iowa and NH if we keep up the momentum...Rand has all but declared his candidacy at this point

Has any candidate ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost the nomination?

[LibertyEsq]

Has any candidate ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost the nomination?

I don't think so

[FSP-Rebel]

Drudged

[TomtheTinker]

Has any candidate ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost the nomination?

No non incumbent republican has ever won Iowa and nh back to back

[anaconda]

I knew from the second Rand endorsed Romney, that a deal was struck. Ron played a very strong hand in getting his son the future nomination. This was a master move.
From everything I have seen, the GOP, the media and the ground forces for positioning have been paying back Ron for the deal he made at the convention.
Now he just has to steal enough swing votes from Clinton and win the WH.

You are the only person I've seen to have said what I've suggested (no offense to the many people I missed who may have already said or thought this), which is that, for one reason or another, the establishment back channels (or a significant chunk of it) may have indeed given the green light for the libertarian to get the nomination. Might be legit. Might be a complete set-up to destroy the liberty movement once and for all. On the other hand, maybe Rand has simply been doing this pretty much on his own.

Another reason they might be being nice to Rand is that he may have hinted to the right sources that he might run third party, hand the Democrats 8 more years, and go back to a comfortable life of eye surgery.

[LibertyEsq]

You are the only person I've seen to have said what I've suggested (no offense to the many people I missed who may have already said or thought this), which is that, for one reason or another, the establishment back channels (or a significant chunk of it) may have indeed given the green light for the libertarian to get the nomination. Might be legit. Might be a complete set-up to destroy the liberty movement once and for all. On the other hand, maybe Rand has simply been doing this pretty much on his own.

Another reason they might be being nice to Rand is that he may have hinted to the right sources that he might run third party, hand the Democrats 8 more years, and go back to a comfortable life of eye surgery.

I think the Republican establishment itself has different factions, but I don't think the Romney-type, northeastern establishment is cold to Rand at all. I think they recognize the need to actually expand the party and win. People may think northeastern Repubs are crony/corporate welfare types, but that's not completely true. Many of those people are full-on with the Democratic party now. I've listened to executives, professors who are ex-executives, finance types and other business people speak, and a lot of them sound JUST LIKE Rand and Ron when it comes to economic and monetary issues. It's the neocon establishment that will be against Rand, and I've been saying this since 2011, that establishment is different from the traditional northeast business establishment.

[Vanguard101]

Damn we were right. No Cruz=20% with ease

[56ktarget]

One poll doesn't mean much. Its the compilation that matters.

[anaconda]

I think the Republican establishment itself has different factions, but I don't think the Romney-type, northeastern establishment is cold to Rand at all. I think they recognize the need to actually expand the party and win. People may think northeastern Repubs are crony/corporate welfare types, but that's not completely true. Many of those people are full-on with the Democratic party now. I've listened to executives, professors who are ex-executives, finance types and other business people speak, and a lot of them sound JUST LIKE Rand and Ron when it comes to economic and monetary issues. It's the neocon establishment that will be against Rand, and I've been saying this since 2011, that establishment is different from the traditional northeast business establishment.

Do you see this group as willing to part with the Federal Reserve as their holy grail?

[LibertyEsq]

Do you see this group as willing to part with the Federal Reserve as their holy grail?

It depends on who you talk to. A lot of the people I mentioned think the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates artificially low for political reasons. Whether that means they want to shut it down or not I don't know. I don't think the issue disqualifies Rand for many of them like Iraq does for the neocons.

Certaily it's worth at least trying to make the coalition.

[Peace&Freedom]

This poll is useful not for its accuracy (since it omits potential rivals) but for the momentum it fosters for Rand. It does not prove a deal was struck to make Rand the 'inside track' guy in 2016, as I think the Romney endorsement deal was a gambit to grant him a reprieve, to position Rand as somebody "who didn't abandon the GOP" when Ron didn't win in 2012. That gambit prevented the establishment from marginalizing Rand in the interim period (2013 - early 2015), but it won't help him come late '15 primary season, when the crunch time comes down.

The media and GOP establishment will be pushing Christie/Bush/Huck/Santorum hard at that point, and likely depress Rand to second tier contender at best. Events of recent weeks (Ukraine, Iraq, etc) show how effortlessly the neocon/pro-war/pro-surveillance set bounce back to life when a pretext for a new intervention emerges. More such pretexts will doubtless magically appear just in time to provide a drumbeat for the establishment guys.

[Brett85]

This is nice, but I doubt if this poll will even be included in the RCP average.

[anaconda]

It depends on who you talk to. A lot of the people I mentioned think the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates artificially low for political reasons. Whether that means they want to shut it down or not I don't know. I don't think the issue disqualifies Rand for many of them like Iraq does for the neocons.

Certaily it's worth at least trying to make the coalition.

This is probably naive and silly, but sometimes I wonder if Rand can actually inspire some of these establishment types into recovering a bit of patriotic pride for a bustling free and energetic society. Something they may have idealized at one time or another but became jaded to and cynical of.

[IndianaPolitico]

Pushing this on my Rand Paul facebook pages. (As should everyone else...)

[idiom]

Eye on the ball lads.

Ryan is the internal nominee. He gets Bush+Christie = 26% ++ the other dregs.

Rand has to at least double his take.

[RickyJ]

I knew from the second Rand endorsed Romney, that a deal was struck. Ron played a very strong hand in getting his son the future nomination. This was a master move.
From everything I have seen, the GOP, the media and the ground forces for positioning have been paying back Ron for the deal he made at the convention.
Now he just has to steal enough swing votes from Clinton and win the WH.

You believe there is honor among these people? They have no honor and lie constantly. No deal can ever be made with the devil and turn out good.

[Matt Collins]

1- this is Zogby, and they are Democrats, and not that accurate...

2- if this is true, it worries me, if he's at the top, that means he has one direction he can go.... don't want to peak too early

[jtstellar]

One poll doesn't mean much. Its the compilation that matters.

for me i would say the most up to date information is the most relevant