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Thread: Fantasy Football 2014

  1. #211



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  3. #212
    Don't forget JJ Watt catching touchdown passes and Chandler Jones and some LB from the Redskins having 20+ point games on the defensive side of the ball.

    Strange. Funny. Tragic. And lessons in morality. Has all the making for a Greek tragedy.

  4. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.
    Perhaps 5 years and thousands of collisions ago, Willis could be the equivalent to Bowman. There's a reason Bowman was the lead LB for the 49ers last season - it's because he's better than Willis at this point in their careers. Willis isn't going to come close to 170 points this season.

    There are no WR on the wire that are projected to score more than about 6 points a game, compared to Nelson's 15+, unless you want to bank on Odell Beckham to save the Giants' season in a few weeks.

    TL;DR you can find replacements for Willis and Woodyard on your wire. You can't find a replacement for Nelson. If Nirv wanted an upgrade at LB, she could have just dropped the bums she traded you and picked up replacements (as you are going to do), while keeping who might be the top scoring WR, and a potential top 20 player in points period. Stop the false modesty, you hoodwinked a competitor and got the clear best end of the deal.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Paul
    Perhaps the most important lesson from Obamacare is that while liberty is lost incrementally, it cannot be regained incrementally. The federal leviathan continues its steady growth; sometimes boldly and sometimes quietly. Obamacare is just the latest example, but make no mistake: the statists are winning. So advocates of liberty must reject incremental approaches and fight boldly for bedrock principles.
    The epitome of libertarian populism

  5. #214
    We'll see... it's not like I got a guy posting top-5 QB numbers every week and a high-end WR2 for a QB everyone who was paying attention knew would get hurt, and suck badly until he did, plus a WR who already sucks. Now that would be hoodwinking.

    I'll confess that I did encourage everyone to fix their IDP lineups to deplete the wire and increase the trade value of the guys I had, but once it was, the value was good. Last week I could have replaced those guys a lot more easily than I can this week. When I make trade offers I always make sure the other side is getting decent value, so that they'll trade with me again in the future. Just because Nelson just posted the game of his life (which I won't benefit from) doesn't make it a bad deal.

    Bowman is better than Willis (I had Bowman last year), but he's out for a long duration, and they're both star quality. Willis has been a reliable high floor IDP guy which is what his value is, and he was only one of three good LBs I traded away. Yahoo thinks he's due to finish #4 at his position and all the IDP ADP lists seem to agree. If you think you can find guys of this quality on the wire, name them. I'm not bad at picking LBs and there's nobody (left) on my watch list that strikes me as a replacement for the ones traded, and I wouldn't have used mid-round picks on all the best IDP I could get my hands on if I thought there was a chance they'd be wire-replaceable. If those guys were replaceable, then I wouldn't have been able set a league IDP record (getting no single score over 15 points) last week by using them.

    update: just checked my list... there's exactly one uninjured LB left on it when I had 15 last week, not even enough to fill the vacated spots in my roster
    Last edited by thoughtomator; 09-15-2014 at 09:06 AM.

  6. #215
    Stop the false modesty, you hoodwinked a competitor
    Yea I would have voted to veto that trade if I realized it was happening.

  7. #216
    I think you guys may be quite surprised at how much the trade ends up helping Nirva's team over the long run, IDP zeros week after week are a sure-fire team killer. She's got a shot at the playoffs now when she didn't before. Yahoo eval gave her a +188 point net on the trade, and while I don't think it was quite that good overall it still improved her team significantly.



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  9. #217
    We all agree that zeros are a killer but the point is there's tons of dudes on the wire that are projected to score 7 or 8 points. There was no reason to trade for a defensive player when they are plentiful in FA.
    Last edited by brandon; 09-15-2014 at 09:57 AM.

  10. #218
    There are exactly 2 uninjured LB on the wire projected to score more than 95 points over the whole season. There are also exactly 2 LB available projected to score more than 7 points in week 3. If everybody were filling their spots properly there would be none over 70 points projected, or week 3 over 5 points. Feel free to check it out yourself. If you believe I know the game better, then ask yourself why I was the first to pull IDP in the draft - the value over baseline of these players is real and significant which is why I stocked up on them. You'll notice other high-scoring teams did the same - I'm not the only one who sees that value.

    Based on projections alone, I got Nelson with a season projection of 256 points, or about 130 over baseline. I gave up LBs with +80, +45, and +25 projections over baseline, or +150 total. There's no significant injury risk to alter the projected value. I paid a 20-point-over baseline premium for Nelson, and I did so because a) I think he'll exceed his projection; and b) I think I'll make better-than-average guesses on the LBs I'll pull to fill in the spots. Nelson may be a big-name player but on pure calculations alone this is a favorable deal for the other side.

    If you think I'm trying to spin this, offer me a deal that, based on my baseline calculations and season projections, give me a +20 net. If I'm not being offered a load of injury risk in the package I'll be highly likely to take it.

    Compared to the deals I struck to get Demaryius Thomas and Nelson last year, this is quite even. Last year those trades I made were +100 or more in my favor - each - but nobody seemed to think they were even slightly unfair.

  11. #219
    In other news, Injury Week is even worse than previously reported. JC out 4-6 weeks; Mark Ingram, who was suddenly becoming a viable fantasy RB, out 6 weeks with a hand injury. RG3 out 6-8 weeks and probably will be a backup when healthy anyway as Cousins is a much better QB. Also add Eric Decker (hamstring) to the injury list. Matthews is listed as 4-5 weeks with a sprained MCL, which is actually good news compared to yesterday. Carson Palmer is out indefinitely with a nerve issue. Vernon Davis was spotted on crutches. Moreno is listed as out 4-8 weeks.

    On the not-so-bad injury side of things, DeSean Jackson looks like he'll be OK for next week, and AJ Green's toe injury doesn't look like it will keep him out of any games.

    If you'd asked me at season start to name the five highly-drafted players most likely to get injured, I'd have named Arian Foster, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson, and probably DeMarco Murray as the last. Oddly enough, none got hurt in any serious way on a day when injuries are ravaging teams in a big way.

  12. #220
    I might be willing to trade Knile Davis for a solid WR.

  13. #221

  14. #222
    What the hell, may as well play along. We can revisit this at end of season to see who was right.


  15. #223
    aaaaaand Injury Week, also known as Week 2, is now in the record books!

    The devastation and carnage left only 2 200+ point teams this week; Voluntaryist Victory with a very strong 227 point performance, and the Argonauts who slipped in at 207. Most everyone else is looking at the ugly results of the biggest stream of injuries in one week in living memory.

    Two big upsets and a little one, as Freedom Fanatics and Jesse Benton's Corpse pull it out this week. Danno also pulls the upset, squeaking in a victory over Taxachusetts.

    In the non-upset category, Yvonne's Dolphins and No Money Big Mouths manage to hold off uncomfortably close challenges to win this week; the latter saved by the surprise performances of Bobby Rainey and Ahmad Bradshaw, two players who may well wrest the starting jobs on their respective teams with superior play, which augurs well for NMBM's future. The other five games were not particularly close and all won by the favorites.

    In the unlikely-heroes category for the week, Darren Sproles decided he'd try out as an elite WR and did pretty well at it. Delanie Walker continues to do his best Jimmy Graham impression for the second week in a row - do we have an emerging elite TE here? Jay Cutler posts a second week of elite QB scores, once again depositing them on the bench. Antonio Gates clearly time-traveled into the past to swap places with his former self this week, and Sammy Watkins - for one game at least - lives up to his top rookie receiver billing.

    After only two weeks there are a mere five undefeated teams left - so far it's looking like a more competitive league than last year.

  16. #224
    Just giving you crap thoughtomator. Jordy is an early 2nd round talent.



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  18. #225
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    I might be willing to trade Knile Davis for a solid WR.
    Anyone?

  19. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    Anyone?
    What are you thinking?

  20. #227

  21. #228
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    Anyone?
    I couldn't offer you any better than Jon Brown right now, but if I had Torrey Smith I'd be seriously considering offering him up in exchange.

  22. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by Bastiat's The Law View Post
    What are you thinking?
    I'm not sure. I was hoping someone would offer me a WR and then I'd look at the stats and decide if I wanted to take it or not. I have enough RBs that I don't strictly NEED Knile. I was curious if whoever has Jamaal Charles might be interested in a trade along those lines, but I'd potentially trade with anyone that has any WR that's better than what I currently have. I can only play 3RBs at a time.

  23. #230
    anyone who stocked up on Atlanta players is having a good night tonight... crazy numbers in this game and it's still mid 3rd quarter - 7 TD all Atlanta, 7 fumbles between the two teams

  24. #231
    this game is turning into one of the all-time greatest ass kickings the NFL has ever seen... time to go look up the record books

  25. #232
    Looks like I'm going to take my first loss since Week 4 of last season... 15 game streak, broken. Still got a 1 in 4 chance of pulling it out, but not counting on it. Not much rolled right for me this week.



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  27. #233
    Wow, go on vacation for a few days and my team implodes..
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
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  28. #234
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Wow, go on vacation for a few days and my team implodes..
    That's how it goes in fantasy football. Incredibly random and things change on a dime.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Paul
    Perhaps the most important lesson from Obamacare is that while liberty is lost incrementally, it cannot be regained incrementally. The federal leviathan continues its steady growth; sometimes boldly and sometimes quietly. Obamacare is just the latest example, but make no mistake: the statists are winning. So advocates of liberty must reject incremental approaches and fight boldly for bedrock principles.
    The epitome of libertarian populism

  29. #235
    Playing pretty much the same guys my scoring has dropped by more than half in 2 weeks. One thing fantasy football is not, is predictable - that's why my strategy is centered around trying to tweak probabilities, because certainties don't exist.

  30. #236
    Talk about outliers - 6/9 on IDP, and 6/10 in the standard roster, scored season lows all at the same time. None of the guys who didn't really went off this week. The two guys I benched this week scored season highs (and it wouldn't have mattered if I played them, still lose). Ouch!

  31. #237
    An interesting Week 3 for RPF league. 3 of the 5 undefeated teams fell this week, leaving Voluntaryist Victory and Jesse Benton's Corpse at the top of the league with 3-0 records. Four teams remain winless. Nearly 3/4 of the league fell under projected score, with only one 200-point score this week (Philadelphia Martyrs with 213), and only four teams scored above 180 points, which was good enough to win in each case. In a statistical curiosity, four teams scored between 139.2 and 139.5 points, posting a collective 1-3 record among them this week.

    Julio Jones and DeMarco Murray are the only WR/RB/TE players above 80 points through week 3; four more have above 70 points, and three of those are on the Philadelphia Martyrs team. The 25th ranked skill position player (Knile Davis) has 52 points on the season; the 50th-ranked (Victor Cruz) has 42; 75th-ranked (Markus Wheaton) has 34; and the 100th-ranked (Allen Robinson) has 28.

    In the QB department, top draft picks Manning, Brees, and Rogers are currently in 4th, 8th, and 10th places respectively. Dark horse QB1 Jay Cutler is in 5th, who is owned by the same team that owns Nick Foles at #2 (No Money Big Mouths).

    In the IDP department, the top-ranked player is surprisingly LB Jelani Jenkins with 38 points; the top DB is Antoine Cason with 33; and the top DL is Chandler Jones with 28.

    From here on in, per-game averages become more meaningful than overall accumulated points, as bye weeks screw with the numbers.

  32. #238
    couldn't sleep worth a damn tonight, but my consolation is getting first dibs on free agents this morning

    and I noticed that Alex Jones Forever has so many starters on bye this week (10!) that they've essentially forfeit (a valid bye week management strategy, but very risky when already 0-3)

  33. #239
    I'm interested in trading for Chris Ivory and/or Lamar Miller, if you have these players and are up to trade them make me an offer.

  34. #240
    I'd be willing to trade something for Wes Welker if ISIS (lol) is willing to trade him.



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