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Thread: Fantasy Football 2014

  1. #181
    I missed the all-time points scored record by 5.2, however it looks like I got the all-time record for IDP points this week at 85.5



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  3. #182
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Odds of victory for Jesse Benton's Corpse have also dropped to 3:2, leaving three matches to be decided in this final, upcoming SD-ARI game. Luck to all...
    Jesse Benton's Corpse haha...these are great names!

  4. #183
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Definitely some surprises this week... top things that caught my notice this morning were how Nirva's team blew away their projections to steal a longshot win, and two highly-rated teams who turned in some decidedly average performances.

    The top-2-scorers-playing-each-other thing is definitely happening, so my game vs. brandon is going to come down to the performance of Stafford and company. Longbombs looks to be coming in 3rd overall this week, with a big gap between his expected score (222ish) and the next best expected score (196ish).
    I almost couldn't believe it myself. That was pure luck.

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  5. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by Nirvikalpa View Post
    I almost couldn't believe it myself. That was pure luck.
    If you take those six IDP players who scored less than a point and replace them with the best available players you'll be scoring in that range more often, even without an exceptional performance on the offensive side.

    I've scored over 200 points now 12 games straight in this league going back to last season, and good IDP is the main reason why that happens. Don't leave those 30-50 points on the table!
    Last edited by thoughtomator; 09-09-2014 at 10:44 PM.



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  7. #185
    Well I have done about all I can with my team. No real choices now just options.
    Our greatest happiness does not depend on the condition of life in which chance has placed us, but is always the result of a good conscience, good health, occupation, and freedom in all just pursuits.
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  8. #186
    Good job on IDP fixin, I see you grabbed at least four players off my IDP watch list. I would bet you see at least 30 points improvement over last week.

  9. #187
    NFL drug suspension rules changed...

    Josh Gordon is suspended 10 games now. If his owner can make it to the playoffs, that will be a scary matchup!

    Welker is unsuspended immediately.

    There are a number of other lesser-impact players who will also be affected.


    In other news, Adrian Peterson may be in a heap of trouble.

  10. #188
    I have several good IDPs on my roster that I'm looking to trade.

  11. #189
    Quote Originally Posted by Bastiat's The Law View Post
    I have several good IDPs on my roster that I'm looking to trade.
    Me too! So easy with so few people having an idea of who to get, to cherry pick the best of the best.

  12. #190
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    NFL drug suspension rules changed...

    Josh Gordon is suspended 10 games now. If his owner can make it to the playoffs, that will be a scary matchup!

    Welker is unsuspended immediately.

    There are a number of other lesser-impact players who will also be affected.


    In other news, Adrian Peterson may be in a heap of trouble.
    All the stories I can find say the repeal of Welkers suspension for this week is still up in the air. I hope he's back!

  13. #191

  14. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    All the stories I can find say the repeal of Welkers suspension for this week is still up in the air. I hope he's back!
    The unsuspension is immediate, whether he'll actually be ready to play this weekend is what's up in the air - at least that's my understanding at this time. Either way, count off the games until the next concussion.



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  16. #193
    In other news, I've now traded all the IDP studs I'm willing to trade, so anyone still looking for help there can go to Bastiat. I probably gave too much for Nelson - giving up Willis in particular is going to hurt - but when I like a player enough I am willing to go overboard to get them. It was made much easier by getting Burfict on waivers yesterday. I have no idea why Vontaze Burfict was dropped... that's the IDP equivalent dropping Brandon Marshall because he spends two games out with an ankle tweak.

    I'm still willing to trade Julius Thomas, and I guess all I need moving forward are better RBs. So if someone's got a strong, healthy RB they're willing to let go in exchange for Thomas, look me up. For the right guy I'll throw in extra players too.

  17. #194
    Week 2 Fantasy Football Lesson

    For Week 2, I'm going to delve a little deeper into IDP (Individual Defensive Players) and how to handle that side of the ball. In this league, with 9 IDP spots, understanding as much as you can about how this works is quite important to being competitive. Even if you managed to overcome an IDP deficit in Week 1, statistically it's not very likely to occur and you don't want to depend on outlier performances on offense every week.

    In our league, IDP positions are divided into three groups: Defensive Backs, Defensive Linemen, and Linebackers.

    A basic review of typical NFL defensive schemes is useful in understanding IDP. All NFL teams use either a 4-3 scheme or a 3-4 scheme on defense. The first number is the amount of "down linemen" (big guys who line up on the line of scrimmage opposite the offensive line) and the second number is the number of linebackers, who will most often be just behind the linemen.

    Linemen (DL)

    Linemen come in two major flavors: Tackles (DL), and Ends (DE). In a 3-4 scheme, there will be one tackle, usually lined up in the center of the formation. This position is called "Nose Tackle". In a 4-3 scheme, there will be two of these guys, one offset to the left of the ball and the other just to the right of the ball. In those cases these guys are known as "Defensive Tackles". These are almost always the heaviest, strongest guys on a defense. In both types of schemes, there will be two "Defensive Ends", one on the left, one on the right. Statistically, ends usually have a scoring advantage over tackles, unless a tackle is a superior player. In our scoring system there is no distinction between tackles and ends; so if you do not have an elite or very-strong tackle on your roster, it is usually a good idea to fill those DL spots with ends.

    In terms of fantasy relevance, elite DL players offer the strongest statistical advantage of all IDP players. This is because the drop-off from the top guys to the baseline player is a good deal steeper than at other positions. The equivalent on the offensive side of the ball is the TE position; you have a few guys in the elite category and everyone else is way below them. So even though DL players score less on average than linebackers, the best ones can offer you more points above baseline than the best linebackers. Mind you, this is points above the DL baseline, not points above the baseline for all defensive players - the linebacker baseline is significantly higher, so playing a DL in a D-flex spot is not advised.

    Linemen tend to be relatively consistent because they rarely come off the field, even when alternate defensive formations designed to protect against the pass ("nickel", "dime" defenses) are in play.

    On a very rare occasion, a lineman will be used on offense as a heavy running back at the goal line. The theory behind this is it's a hell of a job to stop a 330-lb guy with a head of steam behind him, when he only needs one yard or less to score. (NYJ is notorious for using Sheldon Richardson this way.) It does happen but it's very rare. Still, it's great for your team when this happens.


    Defensive Backs (DB)

    Defensive backs are on the other end of the defense; these are the guys who cover wide receivers and sometimes pass-catching tight ends. Defensive backs come in three flavors; in general order of fantasy desirability, there is the Strong Safety (SS), who plays mid-deep on the stronger side of the offensive formation (whichever side the offense's TE is lined up at); the Free Safety (FS), who plays deeper and most often assists with covering receivers; and the Cornerback (CB) who is devoted specifically to covering a WR in most cases. In terms of fantasy points, strong safeties tend to score the most because they help in run defense more often than FS and CB positions do, and thus can get extra opportunities to make tackles for points. Very good FS and CB players can still score more than an average SS, but generally across the board SS is the position most desirable for fantasy purposes.

    DBs of all types are far more likely to get INTs and pick-6 chances by virtue of their pass-covering roles.

    Of particular note are "shutdown corners", guys like Darelle Revis. These players are the ones you would want on your NFL team, but you do NOT want them on your fantasy team. The reason why is that the ball rarely gets thrown in their direction because they are so incredibly good at defending passes and covering receivers. As a result, they counter-intuitively have fewer opportunities for interceptions and tackles, as offenses avoid them, and are thus mediocre point-scorers. A good-but-not-great CB is a better bet for fantasy purposes.

    Linebackers (LB)

    Linebackers are the simplest of the three groups to come to terms with. Linebackers will always be listed as position LB in the player list. On their teams, they may be listed as "MLB" (middle linebacker), "ILB" (inside linebacker), or "OLB" (outside linebacker). In a 4-3 scheme there are three linebackers, so the guy in the middle is a MLB, and the guys on the outside are OLBs. In a 3-4 scheme, there are two guys in the middle, and these are called ILBs.

    What you want most in a linebacker is a player who will stay on the field even in nickel and dime packages - "three down" linebackers. In those sub-packages, a linebacker or two is typically removed from the defense in favor of adding extra cornerbacks - this is to compensate for offensive formations with 3, 4, or 5 WR on the field, who generally require a CB to cover them. Linebackers who stay on the field in these cases get more opportunities than those who get lifted for a CB.

    MLB/ILB generally get more tackle opportunities as they're likely to be closer to the ball, being in the middle of the field. OLBs get more sack opportunities as they are more likely to be called on to blitz. An OLB is more likely to be lifted in a sub-package.

    Consistency vs. Big-Play

    Just like on the offensive side of the ball, there are defensive players who consistently and reliably stack up tackles every game, by the virtue of the role they play on defense. Linebackers have a heavy advantage in this category. Consistent scoring has a lot of virtue in a fantasy scenario; they will score some points every game and will rarely stick you with a zero. DBs and DLs (especially DEs) generally rely more on interceptions and sacks, respectively, to compile points. While these are more points per, they are far rarer than a simple tackle. A defense will rack up dozens of tackles during the course of a game, but usually only 1-2 INTs and 2-6 sacks.

    I personally prefer to use linebackers for consistency, as the position lends itself to high-tackle-number players, while using DBs and DLs for their big-play opportunities.

  18. #195
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    In other news, I've now traded all the IDP studs I'm willing to trade, so anyone still looking for help there can go to Bastiat. I probably gave too much for Nelson - giving up Willis in particular is going to hurt - but when I like a player enough I am willing to go overboard to get them. It was made much easier by getting Burfict on waivers yesterday. I have no idea why Vontaze Burfict was dropped... that's the IDP equivalent dropping Brandon Marshall because he spends two games out with an ankle tweak.

    I'm still willing to trade Julius Thomas, and I guess all I need moving forward are better RBs. So if someone's got a strong, healthy RB they're willing to let go in exchange for Thomas, look me up. For the right guy I'll throw in extra players too.
    You didn't give up anywhere near too much for Nelson. Nelson is a likely top 10 WR, and there are multiple - as many as 10 - players still on the wire at LB who may score within 10% of Willis' season total. There are 0 WR on the wire who will score within 50% of Nelson's total.
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  19. #196
    Quote Originally Posted by Feeding the Abscess View Post
    You didn't give up anywhere near too much for Nelson. Nelson is a likely top 10 WR, and there are multiple - as many as 10 - players still on the wire at LB who may score within 10% of Willis' season total. There are 0 WR on the wire who will score within 50% of Nelson's total.
    I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.

  20. #197
    This week is injury/suspension carnage... key players all over the place going down. Ugly!

  21. #198
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    I hope you are right, but I don't think that there are any LB available that are going to score even 2/3 of Willis' output this season. With Bowman out, he is the man for SF on defense, with #1 overall potential and rock-solid consistency - 150+ point scorer this year. The wire might get me a 100-point scorer if I luck out on a pickup. Look at last year's numbers, LBs who score in the 130+ range are rare, and those in the 150+ range as rare as a 250-point RB. There's actually only 11 other LB total in the league projected within 10% of Willis (projected #4 overall), and I have three of them. I doubt you will see any other IDP player of his caliber traded this year. Willis is taking over the responsibilities for Bowman who scored 178 last year, just a half point away from #1 overall. Check out last year's stats and this year's projections - you might be surprised at how far above baseline these top LBs are. They are as far above baseline as a WR2. If we were to convert the LBs to WR equivalents, I essentially gave up a WR2 and 2x WR3 for a WR1. She needs the depth, and I needed the quality, so it's a win-win for the two of us to make the swap.
    That be how the market works

  22. #199
    This is shaping up to be the oddest week of football I have seen in years. Eli Manning suddenly a good QB? Mohammad Sanu a WR1 and part-time QB? Backup QBs for multiple teams all performing well? Spiller 102yd return TD? Graham pulling a zero for a full half then posting 26 points in 6 minutes? Dallas playing competent defense? Bears with not enough WRs on the roster to play a normal game?

  23. #200
    crazy low scoring this week... only 5 teams are beating projections, and only 1 team is currently projected to be over 200 points



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  25. #201
    3 potential big upsets on the table, all from teams projected to be down 30 points or more... Danno, Benton's Corpse, and Freedom Fanatics all poised to win as serious underdogs

  26. #202
    Now Jamaal Charles exits early... what a massacre on name players this week. This is on top of both CHI WR1s, RG3, AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Carson Palmer, Lamar Miller, Roy Helu, Burfict again, Jon Beason, MJD, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Cameron, Cecil Shorts (plus more I can't list all right now) being injured and out, as well as Peterson and Hardy being behavioral scratches.

  27. #203
    More crazy injuries... Allen Hurns leaves on crutches, Toby Gerhart suffering more ankle problems, Gerald McCoy (a Pro Bowl DL) with a broken hand... not even at halftime on the midday games. It's possible we don't get a single 200-point team this week.

  28. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Now Jamaal Charles exits early... what a massacre on name players this week. This is on top of both CHI WR1s, RG3, AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Carson Palmer, Lamar Miller, Roy Helu, Burfict again, Jon Beason, MJD, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams, Jordan Cameron, Cecil Shorts (plus more I can't list all right now) being injured and out, as well as Peterson and Hardy being behavioral scratches.
    Knile Davis is playing really well right now, 18 points and counting. Too bad I didn't start him this time

    What was Charles' injury? How bad was it?

  29. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomFanatic View Post
    Knile Davis is playing really well right now, 18 points and counting. Too bad I didn't start him this time

    What was Charles' injury? How bad was it?
    Knile Davis always plays well when he gets the opportunity. Charles' injury seems relatively minor right now but we're waiting on more details.

  30. #206
    Quote Originally Posted by thoughtomator View Post
    Knile Davis always plays well when he gets the opportunity. Charles' injury seems relatively minor right now but we're waiting on more details.
    I knew Davis was a steal in the last round (may have been second to last, which wouldn't change that) since there's lots of potential there.

  31. #207
    Ryan Matthews just carted off the field with a serious leg injury... this would be comical if it weren't so tragic.

    and now add Eric Berry with an ankle injury

    Tavon Austin with a "potentially serious" knee injury too
    Last edited by thoughtomator; 09-14-2014 at 04:57 PM.

  32. #208
    JBC and Freedom Fanatics are running away with their upsets... Danno in a nail-biter... and now the Direwolves have a chance to be big upset #4 this week. Everything's gone haywire with all the injuries!



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  34. #209
    Holy Cow WRT Davis' numbers. 26 points and counting. Absolutely insane.

  35. #210
    I am greatly relieved that KC is on bye the week I play you

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