Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey [Paul first...again]

[carlton]

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Rand Paul 15% [16%] (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
• Kelly Ayotte 13% [13%] [5%] (10%)
• Paul Ryan 13% [6%] (9%) {8%} [11%] (11%)
• Chris Christie 12% [9%] (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
• Jeb Bush 7% [3%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
• Ted Cruz 7% [3%] (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
• Donald Trump 5% [4%]
• Bobby Jindal 3% [2%] (2%)
• Scott Walker 3% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
• Marco Rubio 2% [6%] (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
• Rick Perry 1% [2%] (1%) {4%}
• Rick Santorum 1% (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%)
• Rob Portman 0% [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)
• Someone else 3% [6%] (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
• Don’t know yet 15% [18%] (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)

(Open-Ended) If the Republican primary for president were held today, who would you support for the Republican nomination?

NOTE: This question was asked prior to respondents hearing the names of any potential candidates.

• Rand Paul 9%
• Chris Christie 7%
• Ted Cruz 6%
• Mitt Romney 3%
• Scott Brown 3%
• Paul Ryan 2%
• Jeb Bush 2%
• Someone else 6%
• Did not give name 62%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Paul Ryan 60% [48%] (54%) {66%} [68%] (61%) / 15% [20%] (17%) {18%} [13%] (19%) {+45%}
• Marco Rubio 52% [42%] (41%) {47%} [59%] (56%) / 12% [11%] (18%) {14%} [8%] (6%) {+40%}
• Rand Paul 56% [49%] (52%) {57%} [54%] (45%) / 21% [14%] (24%) {20%} [19%] (26%) {+35%}
• Kelly Ayotte 61% [48%] [71%] (68%) / 27% [27%] [14%] (24%) {+34%}
• Scott Walker 38% [30%] (29%) {42%} [38%] (37%) / 12% [9%] (8%) {13%} [8%] (14%) {+26%}
• Ted Cruz 42% [37%] (32%) {29%} [21%] (18%) / 18% [18%] (19%) {17%} [12%] (14%) {+24%}
• Bobby Jindal 30% {39%} [30%] (31%) / 17% {12%} [16%] (21%) {+13%}
• Jeb Bush 45% [46%] (47%) {53%} [48%] (53%) / 35% [25%] (27%) {27%} [34%] (31%) {+10%}
• Rick Perry 36% [32%] (36%) {39%} / 30% [27%] (30%) {37%} {+6%}
• Rick Santorum 36% (39%) {44%} [39%] (40%) / 31% (27%) {37%} [38%] (42%) {+5%}
• Chris Christie 43% [43%] (49%) {59%} [56%] (60%) / 42% [33%] (23%) {24%} [26%] (21%) {+1%}
• Rob Portman 11% [15%] (14%) {15%} [13%] (20%) / 15% [8%] (8%) {19%} [11%] (14%) {-4%}
• Donald Trump 23% [29%] / 66% [59%] {-43%}

Survey of 187 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 1-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 7.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 7-16, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-29, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Lol, Kelly Ayote in 2nd?

[menciusmoldbug]

Lol, Kelly Ayote in 2nd?

Well, she is their Senator. People tend not to get elected Senator of a state if they aren't popular there.

[rprprs]

Gotta love the headline from the poll itself:

CLINTON ALONE ON TOP IN NH, NO GOP FRONTRUNNER

[anaconda]

Does this mean Christie would have been alone at the top without Bridgegate? And Paul "two-hour-and-fifty-something marathon time" Ryan should be much farther down.

[Anti Federalist]

Well, she is their Senator. People tend not to get elected Senator of a state if they aren't popular there.

Ayotte is awful.

John McCain with tits.

[menciusmoldbug]

Does this mean Christie would have been alone at the top without Bridgegate?

Quite possibly. The man was very popular in New England before that bit went down.

[menciusmoldbug]

Ayotte is awful.

John McCain with tits.

You'll hear no argument from me. Understand what this implies about the voters of New Hampshire, however - they are pretty awful as well.

[qh4dotcom]

You'll hear no argument from me. Understand what this implies about the voters of New Hampshire, however - they are pretty awful as well.

NH gullible voters can't be any dumber....they nominated McCain and Romney the last two primaries....Obama won the state the last two general elections.

[jjdoyle]

NH gullible voters can't be any dumber....they nominated McCain and Romney the last two primaries....Obama won the state the last two general elections.

It's throughout the U.S.
Romney got 60,000,000 votes. President Obama got 60,000,000 votes. I can't think of one single Romney voter I know that can explain to me why Romney was better than President Obama, only that he WASN'T President Obama at the very base of their reasoning.

Some of these people waited HOURS in line to vote for someone they couldn't tell you why other than he WASN'T the other person.

[FSP-Rebel]

NH gullible voters can't be any dumber....they nominated McCain and Romney the last two primaries....Obama won the state the last two general elections.

They are pretty greedy ya know. They keep rejecting seatbelt laws and income/sales taxes yet tend to dump on the rest of us with the federal picks.

[mrsat_98]

Ayotte is awful.

John McCain with tits.

Ewwwwwww.

[menciusmoldbug]

It's throughout the U.S.
Romney got 60,000,000 votes. President Obama got 60,000,000 votes. I can't think of one single Romney voter I know that can explain to me why Romney was better than President Obama, only that he WASN'T President Obama at the very base of their reasoning.

Some of these people waited HOURS in line to vote for someone they couldn't tell you why other than he WASN'T the other person.

Mitt Romney is an incredibly bright, accomplished man with strong family values and a commitment to keeping America great. As President, I am confident that he would have enforced the country's immigration laws rather than disregard them as Obama has done. If I lived in a swing state, I would have voted for him.

Your failure to distinguish between Obama and Romney is nothing more than a symptom of sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

[jjdoyle]

Mitt Romney is an incredibly bright, accomplished man with strong family values and a commitment to keeping America great. As President, I am confident that he would have enforced the country's immigration laws rather than disregard them as Obama has done. If I lived in a swing state, I would have voted for him.

Your failure to distinguish between Obama and Romney is nothing more than a symptom of sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

Your posts have been full of nothing but digital diarrhea. The fact you would believe Mitt Romney on anything, when his basic political consistency, was inconsistency, shows the one who has sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

[menciusmoldbug]

Your posts have been full of nothing but digital diarrhea. The fact you would believe Mitt Romney on anything, when his basic political consistency, was inconsistency, shows the one who has sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

I would be happy to bet infinite dollars - or my life - that Mitt Romney and I would both score at least one standard deviation higher than you on any widely-respected measure of general intelligence.

Your opinions, attitude, [mod delete]

Let it burn.

[jjdoyle]

I would be happy to bet infinite dollars - or my life - that Mitt Romney and I would both score at least one standard deviation higher than you on any widely-respected measure of general intelligence.

Your opinions, attitude, [mod delete]

Let it burn.

LOL. I doubt it. Unless you and Mitt pay the teacher for a higher score.

[Tinnuhana]

Ayotte won because the liberty-type vote was split between two other candidates in the primary. In the general she beat Paul Hodes, who voted with Ron Paul on several things, like Audit the Fed.
IIRC

[anaconda]

It's throughout the U.S.
Romney got 60,000,000 votes. President Obama got 60,000,000 votes. I can't think of one single Romney voter I know that can explain to me why Romney was better than President Obama, only that he WASN'T President Obama at the very base of their reasoning.

Some of these people waited HOURS in line to vote for someone they couldn't tell you why other than he WASN'T the other person.

This is a remarkable testament to the power and influence of the Council On Foreign Relations-controlled main stream media. The fact that 120 million registered voters accept that they have just two choices is nothing less than spectacular. I tip my hat to the banksters - a job well done. This is what Rand is going to be fighting against over the next two years.

[anaconda]

Your failure to distinguish between Obama and Romney is nothing more than a symptom of sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

The grand scope of what Romney and Obama have in common is what is germane. We can make many distinctions between Stalin and Hitler and still decree that they are both utterly unacceptable. Both Romney and Obama advocate for, or tacitly approve of, a fiat money central bank, a spurious interest rate policy, an accelerating police state, the elimination of civil liberties, a monstrous military budget, staggering unfunded liabilities, a brutal and imperialist interventionist agenda, unfathomably large deficits, propaganda, lies, disinformation, flip flops, breathtaking abdication of enforcement of the of the law as it pertains to themselves, a revolving door of corporatist influence in government, relentless regulatory capture that makes oversight nonexistent, a prison-industrial complex, and a steady increase in the size and complexity of the federal register.

[menciusmoldbug]

This is a remarkable testament to the power and influence of the Council On Foreign Relations-controlled main stream media. The fact that 120 million registered voters accept that they have just two choices is nothing less than spectacular. I tip my hat to the banksters - a job well done. This is what Rand is going to be fighting over the next two years.

120 million registered voters understand that they have just two reasonable choices. This will always be true in a first-past-the-post system. To vote for a third party candidate in a competitive election is the height of silliness.

I always vote Republican in local races, which tend to be pretty close where I live.

[menciusmoldbug]

The grand scope of what Romney and Obama have in common is what is germane. We can make many distinctions between Stalin and Hitler and still decree that they are both utterly unacceptable. Both Romney and Obama advocate for, or tacitly approve of, a fiat money central bank, a spurious interest rate policy, an accelerating police state, the elimination of civil liberties, a monstrous military budget, staggering unfunded liabilities, a brutal and imperialist interventionist agenda, unfathomably large deficits, propaganda, lies, disinformation, flip flops, breathtaking abdication of enforcement of the of the law as it pertains to themselves, a revolving door of corporatist influence in government, relentless regulatory capture that makes oversight nonexistent, a prison-industrial complex, and a steady increase in the size and complexity of the federal register.

If Stalin and Hitler were the (D) and (R) candidates, respectively, I would have no hesitation whatsoever about pulling the lever for Hitler.

You use the words "utterly unacceptable" as if they meant something. Do you imagine that it matters whether you "accept" a candidate? The winner of the election will be imposed upon you whether you like them or not - your acceptance or lack thereof is irrelevant. Voting is simply a minuscule act of violence in the constant Cold Civil War that is democracy. Voting for a third party candidate is like firing into the air. Voting for a sub-optimal Republican (like Romney) is akin to firing at the enemy horde. Voting for a Democrat is like turning around and firing at your own.

[FriedChicken]

If Stalin and Hitler were the (D) and (R) candidates, respectively, I would have no hesitation whatsoever about pulling the lever for Hitler.

You use the words "utterly unacceptable" as if they meant something. Do you imagine that it matters whether you "accept" a candidate? The winner of the election will be imposed upon you whether you like them or not - your acceptance or lack thereof is irrelevant. Voting is simply a minuscule act of violence in the constant Cold Civil War that is democracy. Voting for a third party candidate is like firing into the air. Voting for a sub-optimal Republican (like Romney) is akin to firing at the enemy horde. Voting for a Democrat is like turning around and firing at your own.

I've noticed your posts the past few days and have thought you had very good, valid and correct points in many of them.
But tonight I've noticed several, like this one, that I don't agree with.

I'm not as much of a purist voter as I use to be. In fact I've voted for a D. before in an effort to keep the R. candidate out - not because I had any desire for the the D. to be my rep but because the R. wasn't good enough and I thought it was worth waiting for another shot to put a good candidate in the seat.

In many posts you sound very common sensical but in others you just sound like a straight ticket voter.

I'm strategic with voting. If there is a liberal repub running for a seat that in the next election a conservative repub has a chance at I'll vote to keep the seat "available" for the conservative.
But if its a seat thats almost always won by a Dem I'll vote for a liberal repub just because it really is the best that can be done.

And sometimes I'll vote for a libertarian candidate if I really like them and don't care if the repub wins to send a message that the liberty message does carry some votes to the GOP and try to make that a group they wish to court.

I get a ton of flack from my local group of Ron Paul supporters for being this way.
I think it best, in the long run, that Romney lost. I didn't vote for him (or Obama ...) and wrote in Ron Paul for principle.

Sure, Romney would have been better in someways, I believe that. But he wouldn't have been good in any vital area, would have prob served 2 terms and after which a liberal democrat would probably win next and stay in office for 8 years.

So we had to put up with 4 more years of crap from Obama, but thats better than 16 years of crap from Romney and whoever followed him just to get another shot at a liberty candidate.

[Keith and stuff]

They are pretty greedy ya know. They keep rejecting seatbelt laws and income/sales taxes yet tend to dump on the rest of us with the federal picks.

So we defeated the adult seat belt law in 2009 when the Democrats controlled the state. The Democrats have been too afraid to reintroduce the bill since then because it's politically toxic. Now, the rumor is that the adult seat belt lady won't even run again. Heck, there is even a rumor that the lady that said the free state is the single biggest threat to NH won't run again. Another rumor is the Concord city council that pushed for the BEARCAT won't run again. These statists are getting a lot of attention and running scared.

Anyway, it's good to see Rand Paul on top in New Hampshire, just like 4 out of the last 5 polls I've seen. This is a nice change from Ron Paul, who never topped a poll in New Hampshire.

[devil21]

Mitt Romney is an incredibly bright, accomplished man with strong family values and a commitment to keeping America great. As President, I am confident that he would have enforced the country's immigration laws rather than disregard them as Obama has done. If I lived in a swing state, I would have voted for him.

Your failure to distinguish between Obama and Romney is nothing more than a symptom of sloppy and unsophisticated thinking.

wtf? Why is anyone talking about Romney and Obama?? Get with the now.

[anaconda]

120 million registered voters understand that they have just two reasonable choices. This will always be true in a first-past-the-post system. To vote for a third party candidate in a competitive election is the height of silliness.

I always vote Republican in local races, which tend to be pretty close where I live.

Silliness is what we have. And what 120 million registered voters vote for.

[anaconda]

If Stalin and Hitler were the (D) and (R) candidates, respectively, I would have no hesitation whatsoever about pulling the lever for Hitler.

You use the words "utterly unacceptable" as if they meant something. Do you imagine that it matters whether you "accept" a candidate? The winner of the election will be imposed upon you whether you like them or not - your acceptance or lack thereof is irrelevant. Voting is simply a minuscule act of violence in the constant Cold Civil War that is democracy. Voting for a third party candidate is like firing into the air. Voting for a sub-optimal Republican (like Romney) is akin to firing at the enemy horde. Voting for a Democrat is like turning around and firing at your own.

I disagree because history shows that paradigms change and minorities can become majorities. But they never got that way by supporting their status quo. Romney lost because a significant and growing (key word here: "growing") segment took the "utterly unacceptable" approach. And now change is being negotiated in the GOP. No thanks to anyone who voted for Mr. Romney.

[KingNothing]

It's throughout the U.S.
Romney got 60,000,000 votes. President Obama got 60,000,000 votes. I can't think of one single Romney voter I know that can explain to me why Romney was better than President Obama, only that he WASN'T President Obama at the very base of their reasoning.

Some of these people waited HOURS in line to vote for someone they couldn't tell you why other than he WASN'T the other person.

I would NEVER vote for Romney, but I think it's pretty obvious that he'd be a better president than Obama. He's run businesses before. He's been part of the real world. That alone gives him a credibility and a perspective Obama does not possess.

[mosquitobite]

I would NEVER vote for Romney, but I think it's pretty obvious that he'd be a better president than Obama. He's run businesses before. He's been part of the real world. That alone gives him a credibility and a perspective Obama does not possess.

And if Romney had won, we'd have to wait til 2020 for Rand. No thanks.

Not only that, but mainstream republicans would go back to their false sense of safety that "everything is all right" now.

[jbauer]

If Stalin and Hitler were the (D) and (R) candidates, respectively, I would have no hesitation whatsoever about pulling the lever for Hitler.

You use the words "utterly unacceptable" as if they meant something. Do you imagine that it matters whether you "accept" a candidate? The winner of the election will be imposed upon you whether you like them or not - your acceptance or lack thereof is irrelevant. Voting is simply a minuscule act of violence in the constant Cold Civil War that is democracy. Voting for a third party candidate is like firing into the air. Voting for a sub-optimal Republican (like Romney) is akin to firing at the enemy horde. Voting for a Democrat is like turning around and firing at your own.

Great, you'd vote for Hitler instead of Stalin. You can claim a vote for a 3rd party is a throw away but if there is ever to be a 3rd party that is sustainable those votes have to START somewhere. Understanding that there are studies that say a 3rd party will never be viable. However, discerning the level of evilness between two almost identical candidates isn't a choice. Saying one is better than the other even by a tiny margin isn't a choice. Voting outside the box is a choice. Its a statement of whats wrong with the current political culture. I look forward to making more statements about whats wrong in future elections.

[Keith and stuff]

And if Romney had won, we'd have to wait til 2020 for Rand. No thanks.

Not only that, but mainstream republicans would go back to their false sense of safety that "everything is all right" now.

You make some interesting points to think about. I noticed that many Republicans were substantially less bad in 1994, because Clinton won in 1992. The same thing happened in 2010. Plus, a ton of additional Republicans were elected in 2010, because of Obama winning in 2010. And it the states that elected governors or state senators every 4 year, many of those Republicans are still in offer, partly due to the backlash against Obama in 2010. Then, in some of the Southern states like AR and NC, the backlash against Obama (with groups organizing and so on) in 2012 to help Southern Republicans pick up even more group.

[Keith and stuff]

So we defeated the adult seat belt law in 2009 when the Democrats controlled the state. The Democrats have been too afraid to reintroduce the bill since then because it's politically toxic. Now, the rumor is that the adult seat belt lady won't even run again. Heck, there is even a rumor that the lady that said the free state is the single biggest threat to NH won't run again. Another rumor is the Concord city council that pushed for the BEARCAT won't run again. These statists are getting a lot of attention and running scared.

Anyway, it's good to see Rand Paul on top in New Hampshire, just like 4 out of the last 5 polls I've seen. This is a nice change from Ron Paul, who never topped a poll in New Hampshire.

Now it has come out that the horrible NH Speaker of the House (she is perhaps located in the most Democratic district in NH) will not seek reelection. While the Republicans are expected to take back the NH House, there is now hope that the Democratic Party leader might be more of a moderate. Plus, whomever it is, the person will not know protocol as well, so he will likely be a less effective leader (hopefully).