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Thread: What evidence is the recovery based on?

  1. #1

    What evidence is the recovery based on?

    The overwhelming consensus among the "experts" is that we are going to have a recovery this year and next. Is this based on anything other than hope? I'm predicting a major collapse based on 18 trillion in debt, artificially low interest rates, 4 trillion in QE and a steady move towards socialism along with an anti-business climate (basically you should have your head examined if you are thinking of starting a business in the US!). I keep hearing people say we are headed for recovery but WHY? Based on WHAT???
    Last edited by Madison320; 04-19-2014 at 07:38 AM.



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  3. #2
    Propaganda that will likely succeed and become self-fulfilling prophecy. Although it seems that most people living in the real world saw through the "green shoots" BS of past years.
    "The journalist is one who separates the wheat from the chaff, and then prints the chaff." - Adlai Stevenson

    “I tell you that virtue does not come from money: but from virtue comes money and all other good things to man, both to the individual and to the state.” - Socrates

  4. #3
    I think the only thing that will be seen this yr are higher food and energy prices.

  5. #4
    Pure fraud and lies. There is no recovery and won't be one until there is a radical change of affairs from the status quo.

  6. #5
    The Fed has Lost Control - Systemic Failure Flashing Warning Signals Now
    Dr. Jim Willie

    Money Velocity Falling Rapidly

    Money Velocity continues to fall rapidly in both the USEconomy and that of Canada, reaching 50-year lows in the Untied States. The indication is failure in monetary policy, as hyper inflation has killed capital on an extensive basis.

    The capital destruction is in its fourth year, probably having reached critical mass. Compared and contrasted with fast rising money supply, the systemic failure is obvious to conclude. The exception is to morons, Wall Street junkies, Big Bank criminal elite, and USGovt hacks.

    The fast decline in Money Velocity means that it is not moving in the body economic. The reason is simple. The blood system is contaminated with the USDollar, a toxic currency with no backing in a hard asset.

    The new money is toxic currency under phenomenal debasement by its own steward, the USFed itself. They redouble their harmful policy instead of abandoning it.



    The Money Velocity picture is not pretty. The declining rate has broken lows set 50 years ago. Technically, the velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically produced goods and services within a given time period, like an inventory cycle time. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. The result would be that growth (as measured in GDP) should be rising. With falling velocity of money, then fewer transactions are occurring and a recession is indicated. Such is the present case in astonishing rapid deterioration. Consumers and business are holding firm their money rather than investing it, as they see poor prospects. New capital formation is not occurring inside the USEconomy, or pitifully little. Debts are being dissolved, usually in default. It should be noted that the velocity of money has also been falling in the EU and Japan. The entire global economy is in recession, the pathogenesis shared.

    DESTRUCTION OF CAPITAL

    The claim that the QE bond monetization is stimulus is pure propaganda, and could not be further from the truth. The claim disguises the nature of the hidden Wall Street bailout, which is to cover their worthless mortgage bonds, and to cover all manner of derivatives, in addition to the obvious coverage of USTreasury Bond sales. Nobody wants the USGovt bonds anymore, except for Belgium operating as hidey hole on behalf of the Euro Central Bank, and for Japan operating as the usual lackey servant. The claim of stimulus is 180 degrees wrong. The bond monetization is pure unsterilized monetary inflation, free money shoved into the system without offset. To be sure, Bernanke had a machine to produce money at no cost, except that like with acid it ruins capital. The result is pure inflation, and extreme motivation for the entire world to take on hedge positions with energy, metals, farmland, and more in order to protect themselves from the ruin of money. The effect is felt as a rising cost structure, felt across the world, and thus shrinking profit margins for the entire global business sector.

    As businesses realize the lost profitability, they shut down and retire their capital. They turn idle their factor machinery, their design workstations, their office computers, their transportation vehicles, their company buildings and offices. The destruction of capital is the ugliest dirty secret behind the official New Normal of central bank monetary policy. They are killing the system, so as to avoid liquidating the big banks. By refusing to take the proper capitalism path in liquidating failed corporate structures, they have instead chosen to kill capital, force income engines to the sidelines, generate capital formation in other nations (like the East & Asia), and destroy the USEconomy. The US and West has forgotten capitalism and embraced socialism with a fascist twist.

    RAMPANT MONETARY GROWTH


    Contrast the declining Money Velocity with fast rising Money Supply growth (presented in March). The conclusion is both galloping economic recession and systemic failure, hardly a reward. Yet it continues without interruption, only the promise of interruption. The systemic failure and breakdown is upon us, the evidence stacking up, the message no longer escapable. The two charts back to back make the point convincingly. New money is wrecking the financial structures and economic systems by destroying capital. The USFed balance sheet is well over $3 trillion, and continues to grow. The new money is going largely in a hidden Wall Street bailout of their bonds and derivatives. The USFed is a grand liar, as their QE volume is growing, not tapering. They are using proxies and back doors, in addition to airborne dirigibles like the Interest Rate Swap contract. Like with the Hindenburg, the floating monsters will explode someday. The growth in money supply is frightening and alarming, evidence of the wrecked capital and wrecked system. Many have called the Jackass a lunatic and alarmist, but they seem incapable to explain the fast rise in monetary base, yet fast decline in money velocity. Monetary policy is a failure. The fiat paper money is toxic. The big banks are insolvent. The global franchise system of central banks should be shut down, except they control the governments, control the finance ministries, control the central banks, control the regulators, and control the militaries.



    LOST CRITICAL MASS IN INDUSTRY

    It is very confusing that money velocity is falling fast, yet central banks are creating new money very rapidly. Imagine a Ferrari or Lamborghini race car spinning its gears, burning its engine out, running out of oil, making no movement. It aint working, started by Alan Greenspan, amplified by Benjamin Bernanke, and to be continued by Janet Yellen. They are stuck with failed monetary policy, and cannot alter the destructive course. The Jackass has maintained that a critical error was committed by granting China the Most Favored Nation status for trade. It was actually a fatal error. The industrial investment is taking place in Asia, led by China. Wall Street and the USGovt leadership at the time, under President Clinton and Robert Rubin, betrayed the nation. They leased gold from the Chinese, in order to perpetuate the fiat paper USDollar regime. They deployed the lunatic Rubin Doctrine, to wreck next year for a few more tomorrows. In doing so, the Chinese benefited from $23 billion in foreign direct investment in the space of a mere two to three years. But the blowback was fatal. The USEconomy lost its industrial critical mass, and has inadequate traction from monetary policy in accommodation. It still has some industry, but not enough. The ultra-low interest rate makes borrowing costs low, but grotesquely inadequate new capital formation has taken place in the USEconomy. It is being done in Asia. Worse, the new industrial parks are springing up across the US landscape, operated by Chinese industrial masters. The QE is not stimulating the USEconomy because 1) the US lacks critical mass industrially, 2) the regulator burden and corporate tax burden and ObamaCare burden are too great, and 3) the nation is too busy with court cases against the big banks and waging war against fabricated enemies. This is Game Over !!!

    As David Chapman points out,

    “It all seems counter-intuitive that the velocity of money should be falling even as the ECB, the Fed, the BOJ, and the Bank of Canada have been maintaining low interest rates for years in order to encourage borrowing and keep the cost of money low. The central banks have also pumped billions of dollars into the economy through QE and other stimulative measures. The result has been an explosion in the monetary base, a sharp rise in M1 but lower growth for M2 and sluggish M3. The economies are weighed down with debt, banks are reluctant to lend, consumers and corporations are unwilling to borrow. The money instead has been used for speculation, primarily going into risk assets such as the stock market. Corporations instead of investing in new plants and investment are sitting on cash hoards or buying back their own shares. Both are non-productive.”




    CANADA DITTO ON FAILURE


    The Jackass howls in laughter at the claim that Canada is different, an independent nation, a refuge of wiser leadership, the Great White North with more integrity. What nonsense! Canada is in the US pocket, and has been for a very long time. The arguments that Canada is different or better or free from gold corruption are truly baseless and stupid. The big Canadian banks short gold with Wall Street banks, and have been doing so for a long time. See the Scotia Mocatta alliance with JPMorgan in recent months. The Canadian Govt efficiently vacated all their gold in the 1980 and 1990 decades. It was probably stolen in part by Mulroney, just like as Bush & Clinton & Rubin stole the US gold. See the hidden brisk activity at Barrick Gold, where the ex-prime minister sat on the Board of Directors. Pay close attention to the Evergreen gold contracts by Barrick, which never force under contract the delivery of gold, only the sale under dubious specious contracts. Then the big Canadian banks are deeply committed in the Wall Street and London derivative entanglements, just like the big US banks. All their big banks are hollow reeds, just like in the Untied States. Lastly, the Canadian stock exchanges engage in rampant naked shorting of the mining stocks, not by those who wish to preserve the fiat currency system, but rather by the investment banks that fund the capital requirements for the mining firms themselves. They sell more shares than granted on finance deals. The most disturbing gold factor from Canada in the last year has been the collusion of Scotia Mocatta with JPMorgan in the provision of gold bullion. They have been offered some special deal for the future, but that future will include a charred landscape and devils as warlords. Scotia Mocatta is in Satan’s service at the Wall Street altar. The old formula still holds: CANADA = UNITED STATES / 10 (just like always). The Jackass expects an extreme conflict very soon, as Canada is far more a Chinese commercial colony than the Untied States. My expectation is that Toronto, Ottawa, and Vancouver will soon begin marching to a different drummer out of Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong. A big hat tip to David Chapman for his recent article (CLICK HERE) on the Money Velocity subject, where the graphic was obtained.

    BLACK HOLE DYNAMICS


    Bernanke was correct. The cost of newly printed electronic money is zero. But he left out the other half of the statement, since he is a lousy economist. The value of the newly printed electronic money is zero. Due to his pathetic education, Bernanke overlooked or fails to comprehend the effect of hyper monetary inflation. Endless spigots of new fiat money are not the salvation of a system, but rather a cornucopia of new capital formation can lift the system in an effective legitimate manner. The unchecked inflation results in the destruction of capital, the wreckage of income producing engines, the extreme ruin of jobs. The new money goes down a drain. The curvature to the drain is defined by toxic bonds even as the inflection is marked by harmful derivatives. The stubborn behavior of the central bank franchise system operations, their deep collusion, their phony patches to the bond structures, their self-dealing $23 trillion in near zero interest loans to themselves, their waged war to protect the King Dollar regime, it is all destructive. Sooner or later the people and madding crowds will awaken, surely very late in the end game.

    GOLD STANDARD PROTECTION, SOLUTION, FUTURE


    The protection is with Gold & Silver bars & coins. The solution is not more bond purchases, broader monetization programs, more liberalized bank reserve rules, or suspended accounting rules. The solution is liquidation of the big dead zombie banks, and a return to the Gold Standard. It will be put in place. It will be installed. It will arrive with a vast new structure of legitimacy. It will include barter systems and decentralized mechanisms. It will include new Letters of Credit based in Gold Trade Notes. But the East led by Russia, China, and followed by India, Japan, and South Korea will be the promoters, installers, and architects of the new strong stable equitable Gold Standard system that the Untied States dreads and fears. The West will continue its rapacious confiscation of wealth and its vicious devotion to war until the platform they stand on built of USD ceramic tiles and USTBond cables and SWIFT pylons collapses. The return of the Gold Standard will relieve the global economy of the burden and wreckage of central bank ruinous and criminal actions. The damage will be extensive. The survivors will be owners of Gold & Silver. The rest will become debt slaves in a nasty fascist state.

    THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

    From subscribers and readers:

    At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

    “Not only have I seen many of the things you talk about in the public arena come to pass, but I have seen many of the things you say repeated three months later by the other analysts. Congratulations!”

    (MannyM in England)

    “Your Hat Trick Letters reports are like the food I like to eat, nutrient dense, high fibre, many rich single and combined flavours, unadulterated, very colourful, (especially your turn of phrase, unique), tidbits from all over the world. I always look forward to them too, a very satisfying feed/read, with original connections between ingredients and forward culinary thinking leading to new dishes from heretofore un-imagined recipes that are obvious from hindsight and take some time to chew and digest.”

    (Nick from Australia)

    “Jim Willie is a gift to our age who is the only clear voice sounding the alarm of the extreme financial crisis facing the Western nations. He has unique skills of unbiased analysis with synthesis of information from his valuable sources. Since 2007, he has made over 17 correct forecast calls, each at least a year ahead of time. If you read his work or listen to his interviews, you will see what has been happening, know what to expect, and know what to do.”

    (Charles in New Mexico)

    “A Paradigm change is occurring for sure. Your reports and analysis are historic documents, allowing future generations to have an accurate account of what and why things went wrong so badly. There is no other written account that strings things along on the timeline, as your writings do. I share them with a handful of incredibly influential people whose decisions are greatly impacted by having the information in the Jackass format. The system is coming apart on such a mega scale that it is difficult to wrap one’s head around where all this will end. But then, the universe strives for equilibrium and all will eventually balance out.”

    (The Voice, a European gold trader source)


    Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com

    www.goldenjackass.com

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat.../flashing.html
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    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


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  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    The Fed has Lost Control - Systemic Failure Flashing Warning Signals Now
    Dr. Jim Willie

    Money Velocity Falling Rapidly

    Money Velocity continues to fall rapidly in both the USEconomy and that of Canada, reaching 50-year lows in the Untied States. The indication is failure in monetary policy, as hyper inflation has killed capital on an extensive basis.

    The capital destruction is in its fourth year, probably having reached critical mass. Compared and contrasted with fast rising money supply, the systemic failure is obvious to conclude. The exception is to morons, Wall Street junkies, Big Bank criminal elite, and USGovt hacks.

    The fast decline in Money Velocity means that it is not moving in the body economic. The reason is simple. The blood system is contaminated with the USDollar, a toxic currency with no backing in a hard asset.

    The new money is toxic currency under phenomenal debasement by its own steward, the USFed itself. They redouble their harmful policy instead of abandoning it.



    The Money Velocity picture is not pretty. The declining rate has broken lows set 50 years ago. Technically, the velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically produced goods and services within a given time period, like an inventory cycle time. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. The result would be that growth (as measured in GDP) should be rising. With falling velocity of money, then fewer transactions are occurring and a recession is indicated. Such is the present case in astonishing rapid deterioration. Consumers and business are holding firm their money rather than investing it, as they see poor prospects. New capital formation is not occurring inside the USEconomy, or pitifully little. Debts are being dissolved, usually in default. It should be noted that the velocity of money has also been falling in the EU and Japan. The entire global economy is in recession, the pathogenesis shared.

    DESTRUCTION OF CAPITAL

    The claim that the QE bond monetization is stimulus is pure propaganda, and could not be further from the truth. The claim disguises the nature of the hidden Wall Street bailout, which is to cover their worthless mortgage bonds, and to cover all manner of derivatives, in addition to the obvious coverage of USTreasury Bond sales. Nobody wants the USGovt bonds anymore, except for Belgium operating as hidey hole on behalf of the Euro Central Bank, and for Japan operating as the usual lackey servant. The claim of stimulus is 180 degrees wrong. The bond monetization is pure unsterilized monetary inflation, free money shoved into the system without offset. To be sure, Bernanke had a machine to produce money at no cost, except that like with acid it ruins capital. The result is pure inflation, and extreme motivation for the entire world to take on hedge positions with energy, metals, farmland, and more in order to protect themselves from the ruin of money. The effect is felt as a rising cost structure, felt across the world, and thus shrinking profit margins for the entire global business sector.

    As businesses realize the lost profitability, they shut down and retire their capital. They turn idle their factor machinery, their design workstations, their office computers, their transportation vehicles, their company buildings and offices. The destruction of capital is the ugliest dirty secret behind the official New Normal of central bank monetary policy. They are killing the system, so as to avoid liquidating the big banks. By refusing to take the proper capitalism path in liquidating failed corporate structures, they have instead chosen to kill capital, force income engines to the sidelines, generate capital formation in other nations (like the East & Asia), and destroy the USEconomy. The US and West has forgotten capitalism and embraced socialism with a fascist twist.

    RAMPANT MONETARY GROWTH


    Contrast the declining Money Velocity with fast rising Money Supply growth (presented in March). The conclusion is both galloping economic recession and systemic failure, hardly a reward. Yet it continues without interruption, only the promise of interruption. The systemic failure and breakdown is upon us, the evidence stacking up, the message no longer escapable. The two charts back to back make the point convincingly. New money is wrecking the financial structures and economic systems by destroying capital. The USFed balance sheet is well over $3 trillion, and continues to grow. The new money is going largely in a hidden Wall Street bailout of their bonds and derivatives. The USFed is a grand liar, as their QE volume is growing, not tapering. They are using proxies and back doors, in addition to airborne dirigibles like the Interest Rate Swap contract. Like with the Hindenburg, the floating monsters will explode someday. The growth in money supply is frightening and alarming, evidence of the wrecked capital and wrecked system. Many have called the Jackass a lunatic and alarmist, but they seem incapable to explain the fast rise in monetary base, yet fast decline in money velocity. Monetary policy is a failure. The fiat paper money is toxic. The big banks are insolvent. The global franchise system of central banks should be shut down, except they control the governments, control the finance ministries, control the central banks, control the regulators, and control the militaries.



    LOST CRITICAL MASS IN INDUSTRY

    It is very confusing that money velocity is falling fast, yet central banks are creating new money very rapidly. Imagine a Ferrari or Lamborghini race car spinning its gears, burning its engine out, running out of oil, making no movement. It aint working, started by Alan Greenspan, amplified by Benjamin Bernanke, and to be continued by Janet Yellen. They are stuck with failed monetary policy, and cannot alter the destructive course. The Jackass has maintained that a critical error was committed by granting China the Most Favored Nation status for trade. It was actually a fatal error. The industrial investment is taking place in Asia, led by China. Wall Street and the USGovt leadership at the time, under President Clinton and Robert Rubin, betrayed the nation. They leased gold from the Chinese, in order to perpetuate the fiat paper USDollar regime. They deployed the lunatic Rubin Doctrine, to wreck next year for a few more tomorrows. In doing so, the Chinese benefited from $23 billion in foreign direct investment in the space of a mere two to three years. But the blowback was fatal. The USEconomy lost its industrial critical mass, and has inadequate traction from monetary policy in accommodation. It still has some industry, but not enough. The ultra-low interest rate makes borrowing costs low, but grotesquely inadequate new capital formation has taken place in the USEconomy. It is being done in Asia. Worse, the new industrial parks are springing up across the US landscape, operated by Chinese industrial masters. The QE is not stimulating the USEconomy because 1) the US lacks critical mass industrially, 2) the regulator burden and corporate tax burden and ObamaCare burden are too great, and 3) the nation is too busy with court cases against the big banks and waging war against fabricated enemies. This is Game Over !!!

    As David Chapman points out,

    “It all seems counter-intuitive that the velocity of money should be falling even as the ECB, the Fed, the BOJ, and the Bank of Canada have been maintaining low interest rates for years in order to encourage borrowing and keep the cost of money low. The central banks have also pumped billions of dollars into the economy through QE and other stimulative measures. The result has been an explosion in the monetary base, a sharp rise in M1 but lower growth for M2 and sluggish M3. The economies are weighed down with debt, banks are reluctant to lend, consumers and corporations are unwilling to borrow. The money instead has been used for speculation, primarily going into risk assets such as the stock market. Corporations instead of investing in new plants and investment are sitting on cash hoards or buying back their own shares. Both are non-productive.”




    CANADA DITTO ON FAILURE


    The Jackass howls in laughter at the claim that Canada is different, an independent nation, a refuge of wiser leadership, the Great White North with more integrity. What nonsense! Canada is in the US pocket, and has been for a very long time. The arguments that Canada is different or better or free from gold corruption are truly baseless and stupid. The big Canadian banks short gold with Wall Street banks, and have been doing so for a long time. See the Scotia Mocatta alliance with JPMorgan in recent months. The Canadian Govt efficiently vacated all their gold in the 1980 and 1990 decades. It was probably stolen in part by Mulroney, just like as Bush & Clinton & Rubin stole the US gold. See the hidden brisk activity at Barrick Gold, where the ex-prime minister sat on the Board of Directors. Pay close attention to the Evergreen gold contracts by Barrick, which never force under contract the delivery of gold, only the sale under dubious specious contracts. Then the big Canadian banks are deeply committed in the Wall Street and London derivative entanglements, just like the big US banks. All their big banks are hollow reeds, just like in the Untied States. Lastly, the Canadian stock exchanges engage in rampant naked shorting of the mining stocks, not by those who wish to preserve the fiat currency system, but rather by the investment banks that fund the capital requirements for the mining firms themselves. They sell more shares than granted on finance deals. The most disturbing gold factor from Canada in the last year has been the collusion of Scotia Mocatta with JPMorgan in the provision of gold bullion. They have been offered some special deal for the future, but that future will include a charred landscape and devils as warlords. Scotia Mocatta is in Satan’s service at the Wall Street altar. The old formula still holds: CANADA = UNITED STATES / 10 (just like always). The Jackass expects an extreme conflict very soon, as Canada is far more a Chinese commercial colony than the Untied States. My expectation is that Toronto, Ottawa, and Vancouver will soon begin marching to a different drummer out of Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong. A big hat tip to David Chapman for his recent article (CLICK HERE) on the Money Velocity subject, where the graphic was obtained.

    BLACK HOLE DYNAMICS


    Bernanke was correct. The cost of newly printed electronic money is zero. But he left out the other half of the statement, since he is a lousy economist. The value of the newly printed electronic money is zero. Due to his pathetic education, Bernanke overlooked or fails to comprehend the effect of hyper monetary inflation. Endless spigots of new fiat money are not the salvation of a system, but rather a cornucopia of new capital formation can lift the system in an effective legitimate manner. The unchecked inflation results in the destruction of capital, the wreckage of income producing engines, the extreme ruin of jobs. The new money goes down a drain. The curvature to the drain is defined by toxic bonds even as the inflection is marked by harmful derivatives. The stubborn behavior of the central bank franchise system operations, their deep collusion, their phony patches to the bond structures, their self-dealing $23 trillion in near zero interest loans to themselves, their waged war to protect the King Dollar regime, it is all destructive. Sooner or later the people and madding crowds will awaken, surely very late in the end game.

    GOLD STANDARD PROTECTION, SOLUTION, FUTURE


    The protection is with Gold & Silver bars & coins. The solution is not more bond purchases, broader monetization programs, more liberalized bank reserve rules, or suspended accounting rules. The solution is liquidation of the big dead zombie banks, and a return to the Gold Standard. It will be put in place. It will be installed. It will arrive with a vast new structure of legitimacy. It will include barter systems and decentralized mechanisms. It will include new Letters of Credit based in Gold Trade Notes. But the East led by Russia, China, and followed by India, Japan, and South Korea will be the promoters, installers, and architects of the new strong stable equitable Gold Standard system that the Untied States dreads and fears. The West will continue its rapacious confiscation of wealth and its vicious devotion to war until the platform they stand on built of USD ceramic tiles and USTBond cables and SWIFT pylons collapses. The return of the Gold Standard will relieve the global economy of the burden and wreckage of central bank ruinous and criminal actions. The damage will be extensive. The survivors will be owners of Gold & Silver. The rest will become debt slaves in a nasty fascist state.

    THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

    From subscribers and readers:

    At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

    “Not only have I seen many of the things you talk about in the public arena come to pass, but I have seen many of the things you say repeated three months later by the other analysts. Congratulations!”

    (MannyM in England)

    “Your Hat Trick Letters reports are like the food I like to eat, nutrient dense, high fibre, many rich single and combined flavours, unadulterated, very colourful, (especially your turn of phrase, unique), tidbits from all over the world. I always look forward to them too, a very satisfying feed/read, with original connections between ingredients and forward culinary thinking leading to new dishes from heretofore un-imagined recipes that are obvious from hindsight and take some time to chew and digest.”

    (Nick from Australia)

    “Jim Willie is a gift to our age who is the only clear voice sounding the alarm of the extreme financial crisis facing the Western nations. He has unique skills of unbiased analysis with synthesis of information from his valuable sources. Since 2007, he has made over 17 correct forecast calls, each at least a year ahead of time. If you read his work or listen to his interviews, you will see what has been happening, know what to expect, and know what to do.”

    (Charles in New Mexico)

    “A Paradigm change is occurring for sure. Your reports and analysis are historic documents, allowing future generations to have an accurate account of what and why things went wrong so badly. There is no other written account that strings things along on the timeline, as your writings do. I share them with a handful of incredibly influential people whose decisions are greatly impacted by having the information in the Jackass format. The system is coming apart on such a mega scale that it is difficult to wrap one’s head around where all this will end. But then, the universe strives for equilibrium and all will eventually balance out.”

    (The Voice, a European gold trader source)


    Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com

    www.goldenjackass.com

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat.../flashing.html
    I take it this means you do not expect dramatic recovery this summer to go along with higher grocery , gasoline , electric & Nat gas prices ?

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Based on WHAT???
    Higher minimum wage and massive savings on health care. :-)
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Higher minimum wage and massive savings on health care. :-)
    Ha! Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm looking for even though we both know those things will make the economy worse. Even if it's totally wrong what is the recovery based on? What's changed? My guess is the only thing they have to point to is a higher stock market and gradual improvement in the unemployment rate. But for one thing that ignores the 8 trillion in borrowing and 4 trillion in money printing that made those meager gains possible. But more importantly the supposed improvement in employment HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. You can't project out employment gains into the future. That's like saying since Lebron James has made his last 5 shots he'll make the next 5. It's a statistical fallacy. If you are predicting a recovery you need to be able to point to some concrete changes that are going to make that possible.



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  11. #9
    I'm pretty sure they must be talking about THEIR economy.

    I've seen nothing going for ours for the last fifty years.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    Ha! Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm looking for even though we both know those things will make the economy worse. Even if it's totally wrong what is the recovery based on? What's changed? My guess is the only thing they have to point to is a higher stock market and gradual improvement in the unemployment rate. But for one thing that ignores the 8 trillion in borrowing and 4 trillion in money printing that made those meager gains possible. But more importantly the supposed improvement in employment HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. You can't project out employment gains into the future. That's like saying since Lebron James has made his last 5 shots he'll make the next 5. It's a statistical fallacy. If you are predicting a recovery you need to be able to point to some concrete changes that are going to make that possible.
    The unemployment rate is meaningless. Labor Force Participation is in decline.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Higher minimum wage and massive savings on health care. :-)
    I am saving a bunch on health care .When I read the first bill I went and dropped my health plan at work and negotiated a flat rate cash price with my Doctor and bought an $18 a month dental plan.LOL

  14. #12
    Wall St recovered at the expense of Main St. Nobody measures Main St tho, just Wall St. Unemployment numbers are completely fabricated and by design exclude as many people that are looking for work for whatever reason they can. Housing manufacturing is in dire straights as are home sales. However, if you have a Realtors License, even if you did not make a dime last year, you are NOT considered unemployed because you have that license, and this is just one of many examples of the fictional recovery. Most of the jobs that were lost were Middle Class jobs, however the jobs that have been created are mostly minimum wage part time no benefit service sector jobs where employees are disposed of instead of given raises.

    Some places have been hit harder than others. Just look at Detroit. Its dead. Not dying, it is dead. Other places are hit just as bad. Then they want to say that the economy has recovered because of the value of a bunch of stocks that 99% of the lower class do not own. We call that a recovery? We call stagflation a recovery? We call higher cost of living continuing with no way to pay for those higher prices a recovery? We call flat out lies about the unemployment rate (wheres Zippy to say "nothing to see here") being artificially low? We call skyrocketing cost of education for shiny pieces of paper with very little actual knowledge being shared a recovery? We call exporting jobs to every other country on earth a recovery? We call record number of people on food stamps a recovery? We call more people on welfare than working at roughly 2 to 1 a recovery? We call Median Household Income going down while prices continue to rise a recovery? We call the ever increasing number of homeless a recovery? We call record credit card debt and default a recovery?

    If this "recovery" is the change that was promised, then keep the change.
    1776 > 1984

    The FAILURE of the United States Government to operate and maintain an
    Honest Money System , which frees the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators, is the single largest contributing factor to the World's current Economic Crisis.

    The Elimination of Privacy is the Architecture of Genocide

    Belief, Money, and Violence are the three ways all people are controlled

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Our central bank is not privately owned.

  15. #13
    Paul Krugman just got a lot of money. Everything is going to be a O.K.
    Libertarians - trying to improve the world through ideas and free markets rather than legislation and prisons.

  16. #14
    Even if you ignore the underlying fundamentals, like the debt, aren't we due pretty soon for a cyclical downturn? It's been 5 years since the last crash.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Money Velocity Falling Rapidly
    "Money Velocity continues to fall rapidly in both the USEconomy and that of Canada, reaching 50-year lows in the Untied States. The indication is failure in monetary policy, as hyper inflation has killed capital on an extensive basis."
    I don't get this. I thought as the money supply gets inflated, the value of the currency starts dropping and the velocity INCREASES as people try to spend their currency quickly before it loses value. If US dollar velocity is currently low, I would think that means we are still at the point where people are not perceiving the loss of purchasing power to their dollars. Personally I don't think there's much value to the velocity stat. I don't think it's a good predictor of future price inflation. I think debt and QE are much better indicators. I think the velocity and price increases happen simultaneously BECAUSE of the debt and QE. TO me using money velocity to predict price inflation is like using wet sidewalks to predict rain.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I don't get this. I thought as the money supply gets inflated, the value of the currency starts dropping and the velocity INCREASES as people try to spend their currency quickly before it loses value. If US dollar velocity is currently low, I would think that means we are still at the point where people are not perceiving the loss of purchasing power to their dollars. Personally I don't think there's much value to the velocity stat. I don't think it's a good predictor of future price inflation. I think debt and QE are much better indicators. I think the velocity and price increases happen simultaneously BECAUSE of the debt and QE. TO me using money velocity to predict price inflation is like using wet sidewalks to predict rain.
    That came from an article by Dr Willie that Danke put up . Cannot say if I agree or disagree , only velocity I am familiar with is ballistics



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  20. #17
    "Recovering" means things improving- not necessarily back to the "good old days". Are we better off than in 2007/ 2008?

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I don't get this. I thought as the money supply gets inflated, the value of the currency starts dropping and the velocity INCREASES as people try to spend their currency quickly before it loses value. If US dollar velocity is currently low, I would think that means we are still at the point where people are not perceiving the loss of purchasing power to their dollars. Personally I don't think there's much value to the velocity stat. I don't think it's a good predictor of future price inflation. I think debt and QE are much better indicators. I think the velocity and price increases happen simultaneously BECAUSE of the debt and QE. TO me using money velocity to predict price inflation is like using wet sidewalks to predict rain.
    Velocity is how fast money is rolling over. You get a dollar- how long before you spend it. This is independent of the supply of money. People aren't spending that much so velocity is low. That is why all the money the Fed has pushed out so far has had little impact on price inflation. If people do start spending money faster, then inflation will move higher. How far and how fast inflation rises will depend on how fast people increase their spending.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "Recovering" means things improving- not necessarily back to the "good old days". Are we better off than in 2007/ 2008?
    Depends on who you mean by "we".
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  23. #20

    Thumbs up thread winner

    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Higher minimum wage and massive savings on health care. :-)

    LOL !

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    . I keep hearing people say we are headed for recovery but WHY? Based on WHAT???

    Recovery is kind of like a hangover, First you throw up, then you gradually get over it. I suspect we are in the throwing up stage at best.

    Last edited by mrsat_98; 04-20-2014 at 09:01 AM.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "Recovering" means things improving- not necessarily back to the "good old days". Are we better off than in 2007/ 2008?
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Depends on who you mean by "we".


    I'm sure as heck not.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post

    I'm sure as heck not.
    You should have gone into investment banking. Or Security technology.
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "Recovering" means things improving- not necessarily back to the "good old days". Are we better off than in 2007/ 2008?
    There's two problems with this statement. One is that it you have to ignore the 10 trillion in debt and QE, to say we are better off. I can max out my credit and buy an expensive home, and an expensive car and finance all the latest gadgets, but does that mean I'm better off? Or does it only appear that I'm better off in the short run, but in the long run I'm worse off.

    Second is that just because things are dubiously "improving" doesn't mean they will continue to improve. There is no correlation between past growth and continued future growth, just like a basketball player who makes 5 shots in a row doesn't mean he'll make the next 5.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Velocity is how fast money is rolling over. You get a dollar- how long before you spend it. This is independent of the supply of money. People aren't spending that much so velocity is low. That is why all the money the Fed has pushed out so far has had little impact on price inflation. If people do start spending money faster, then inflation will move higher. How far and how fast inflation rises will depend on how fast people increase their spending.
    I not sure velocity is independent of the money supply. I would argue that as money is printed and prices start rising, velocity will increase.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I am not sure velocity is independent of the money supply.
    It is.

    Velocity is a completely different stat. You are saying "I would argue that as the number of 3-pointers John Stockton scores goes up, the percentage of rebounds that are gotten by him will increase as well." They are two totally different things, and not correlated in any necessary way. MV=PQ.

    Here's another way to look at it that may be simpler than learning that equation: price inflation is when the price of goods generally rise in terms of money. We can state it backwards just as truly: price inflation is when the price of money falls in terms of goods.

    What determines the price of money?

    Well, what determines the price of anything?

    What say you, Madison? What determines a thing's price?

    To save time and because you may not reply to me (as is sometimes your wont) let me give my answer: supply and demand!

    In this case, supply is the money supply. Demand is the inverse of the money velocity. The more people desire (demand) dollars for their own sake, to hold on to them, the slower the velocity. If, on the other hand, people decide they want to hold fewer dollars, they become kind of like a hot potato. Instead of hanging around in people's wallets or bank accounts, they are getting traded in for other goods the people desire more.

    If the central bank inflates at a 50% rate, the price of money could fall by 50% (that is, price inflation could be 50%), but it could also fall by only 10% due to increasing demand. Or it could even increase by 50% due to tremendous growth in demand.

    If Tyco increases the number of Tickle-Me-Elmos by 50%, the price of Elmos could fall by 50% (that is, price inflation could be 50%), but it could also fall by only 10% due to increasing demand. Or it could even increase by 50% due to tremendous growth in demand.

    Make sense?

  31. #27
    The Feds want to appear that conditions are improving and that they're steering the economy in the right direction... Really all they can do to HELP the economy is to boost America's confidence in them, hoping that it will boost our confidence in spending, hiring, etc... Inflation will NOT help. Debt and QE are bad for the Dollar... Here's what Peter Schiff has to say about Janet Yellin and the Federal Reserve.

  32. #28
    Money supply is used to calculate velocity. I'm not sure the actual calculation they use but say for instance we have a money supply of 3 trillion with a GDP of 17 trillion, velocity would be 17T/3T. Then you add 3 or 5 or however many trillions of additional supply the fed has over the last few year with no growth and it looks like 17T/6T, therefore you get a lower velocity.

    --
    Ron and many others warned about the housing bubble for a decade before the actual event happened. Two things come to mind that can spawn such an event. The numbers no longer work (ie 2009) or that enough people wake up thinking the same as you; that the dollar is worthless and with the realization that the debt can't be repaid. I don't think that they (the fed) can defy reality forever, so its just a matter of time before one of the two happen. And I think it must be said that IF you have the desired currency during/after the collapse opportunity will be abound, but the opportunity to make money to open those same opportunities will be scarce. It pays to work hard now and hope your magic 8-ball leads you to the "right" currency.

  33. #29
    What if I told you there was to be no recovery ? Wages will not go up , the housing market cannot drive the economy and the number of people employed is not going to go up . Only thing rising will be food and energy prices .

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    You should have gone into investment banking. Or Security technology.
    Or better still, insider trading.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    We believe our lying eyes...

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