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Thread: Fox News Poll: Christie, Bush and Paul are top GOP picks -- today -- for 2016

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    Fox News Poll: Christie, Bush and Paul are top GOP picks -- today -- for 2016




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    Great news! A liberal Republican from NJ vs another BIG GOVT Bush vs a conservative. I smell a Randslide!
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  5. #4
    Am I the one who has to rain on everybody's parade and point out that the top two establishment candidates out-poll Rand Paul by a margin of better than two to one? If Bush doesn't run, how many of his supporters will switch to Rand and how many would switch to Christie? I'd suggest that Christie would win that battle by a rather comfortable margin.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not disappointed that Rand is in the top tier, but I think we should recognize that a lot of work still has to be done. The good news is that the first four states under the new GOP rules will be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Three of those states have strong Ron Paul organizations and even South Carolina is probably competitive for Paul. So he has a good chance of building early momentum. But at this point, Rand has the support of only 14% of the GOP vote, and we shouldn't overlook that when the others, except for Cruz, are all establishment candidates.

    I would like to see how Rand does one-on-one against these guys, but it is too early to do that kind of polling.

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  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    Great news! A liberal Republican from NJ vs another BIG GOVT Bush vs a conservative. I smell a Randslide!
    Despite the deployment of increasingly sophisticated measuring equipment by scientists, the most reliable sign of an impending Randslide remains the overpowering sulfurous odor often reported by those in the vicinity immediately preceding the Randslide. Scientists speculate that this is an effect of neocons voiding their bowels in terror.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by boneyard bill View Post
    Am I the one who has to rain on everybody's parade and point out that the top two establishment candidates out-poll Rand Paul by a margin of better than two to one? If Bush doesn't run, how many of his supporters will switch to Rand and how many would switch to Christie? I'd suggest that Christie would win that battle by a rather comfortable margin.
    The open seat will push 2 strong establishment candidates into the race, see McCain v. Romney in 2008, Bush v. McCain in 2000 and Bush v. Dole in 1988.
    Don't get me wrong. I'm not disappointed that Rand is in the top tier, but I think we should recognize that a lot of work still has to be done. The good news is that the first four states under the new GOP rules will be Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Three of those states have strong Ron Paul organizations and even South Carolina is probably competitive for Paul. So he has a good chance of building early momentum. But at this point, Rand has the support of only 14% of the GOP vote, and we shouldn't overlook that when the others, except for Cruz, are all establishment candidates.
    Crosstabs have shown Rand has been pulling moderate voters too recently. Cruz's presence in the Senate has had the impact of making Rand look more moderate by comparison.

  9. #8
    Rand has high favorability overall and with independents, his numbers actually look pretty good but like everyone has been saying, still too early. It is nice to see Rand stabilize and maintain top tier presence after his filibuster though. His numbers and support has been maintained despite the media pushing, plagiarism, iran, and neocon attacks.
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  11. #9
    Same poll, 4 years ago:

    Mitt Romney 19%
    Mike Huckabee 17
    Sarah Palin 9
    Donald Trump 8
    Newt Gingrich 7
    Ron Paul 7
    Herman Cain 4
    Tim Pawlenty 3
    Michele Bachmann 3
    Rick Santorum 3
    Mitch Daniels 2
    Jon Huntsman 1
    Gary Johnson 1
    Fred Karger 1
    Roy Moore 1
    Someone else 1
    Too soon to say 9
    Don't know 4

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by boneyard bill View Post
    Am I the one who has to rain on everybody's parade and point out that the top two establishment candidates out-poll Rand Paul by a margin of better than two to one? If Bush doesn't run, how many of his supporters will switch to Rand and how many would switch to Christie? I'd suggest that Christie would win that battle by a rather comfortable margin.
    The poll included: Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal. While we here might consider Rubio, Walker, Perry and Jindal part of the establishment, the average voter does not. Rand has the ability to win the support of those who are supporting what they view as a "conservative" candidate.

    Also, if you look at the full poll, 57% of GOP voters approve of the Tea Party, that works in Rand's favor. Then when you look at Rand's favorability/unfavorability numbers he polls the best in favorability when you combine Reps and Inds. Again, good news.

    Early polls like this are less about seeing who is on top and more about seeing how the wind is blowing. Just look at the 2011 poll, if you were a Santorum supporter you would have packed it in if all you went by was the polling. But come 2012 he did much better than expected.

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    But Santorum was a different story than rand will be, capt...

    Rand will never have the media support that establishment types get.

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    Very good! Paul has a chance of winning.

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    I understand polls like this are really just about name recognition. I wouldn't be surprised if the lion's share of the people who voted for Jeb confused him for G.W.

    Now I would like to think once the primary season heats up, and people start smelling the fresh breeze of air that is Rand, that his numbers will improve. Then reality sets in. While you and I are busy with new families, carriers, and homes, the geriatric wing of the Republican base are the ones voting. The Vietnam era conservatives have too much love for government. They still trust these criminals. When they hear words like liberty, they envision dirty hippies with hairy armpits, and even hairier pubic regions, burning bras and sleeping with strangers. While we might have the greatest distrust of government for any generation ever seen in America, we as a collective are just too busy with life to get out and vote, let alone know all the issues. My elderly neighbors wait all day to get their trash cans after the garbage trucks come on trash day. They are out there like clockwork 30 seconds after the truck leaves.

    I can't see much changing until those of us in our 20s - 40s are in our 40s - 60s. Yeah, not for twenty years!



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