Bitcoin: To Buy or Not to Buy?
Now, for the $640 question! Would I buy Bitcoin at today's price? No, and not because I am a Luddite that is convinced that digital currencies will not work. It is because I have never been good at calling currency movements and consequently have never bet on them. Since I would not bet on the dollar strengthening relative to the Euro or on the future price of gold, why would I try to do so with Bitcoin?
I believe that there will be a digital currency in wide use a decade or two from now. The question, of course, is whether that digital currency will be Bitcoin or a competitor. If you are a Bitcoin enthusiast, the pathway to its success requires three developments: the computer algorithm underlying the currency has to stay transparent, robust and protected, the usage of Bitcoins has to spread beyond the narrow band of enthusiasts to the broader marketplace and the infrastructure for securing, transporting and saving Bitcoins has to be strengthened. That will require true believers to accept compromises to both their vision (of a truly decentralized currency with no regulatory authorities or power) and their practices (anonymity, for instance, might become a casualty to commerce). Anarchy is a great disruptor of the status quo, but long-lasting currencies require order and predictability, and Bitcoin's biggest promoters seem to have little fondness for either.
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