Gold and Silver Predictions for 2014

[Seraphim]

Silver just posted it's longest winning streak in 46 years. I believe that's 13 straight +/green days (trading days) in a row.

[Acala]

It is intersting that rising housing prices means a bubble and rising gold prices are simply "what must happen".

The housing market is built on credit (newly created money) while the gold market is not. So, although the price of both gold and housing goes up and down, and there is an element of speculation in both, as between the two, only the housing market lives or dies directly on monetary policy. So, while you might have a short-lived speculative bubble in both, you will only have an inflationary bubble in housing.

[DFF]

Silver just posted it's longest winning streak in 46 years. I believe that's 13 straight +/green days (trading days) in a row.

Ya, and today was a big volume day. 93k contracts traded hands. Highest volume so far this year.

[Seraphim]

I usually agree with you but gold does the opposite of what you stated.

When credit and currency fail (or are severely inflated, particularly currency), liquidity storms into gold (for protection) and creates bubbles of EPIC proportion, because of inflation and inflationary expectations.

The last secular bull market in gold (1965-1980) is a prime example of that.

This current secular bull in gold, which is orders of magnitude larger then the last, will also end in an inflation/currency collapse driven bubble.

The housing market is built on credit (newly created money) while the gold market is not. So, although the price of both gold and housing goes up and down, and there is an element of speculation in both, as between the two, only the housing market lives or dies directly on monetary policy. So, while you might have a short-lived speculative bubble in both, you will only have an inflationary bubble in housing.

[Madison320]

So gold can always and only go up, eh?

That's not what I said, read my post.

[Acala]

I usually agree with you but gold does the opposite of what you stated.

When credit and currency fail (or are severely inflated, particularly currency), liquidity storms into gold (for protection) and creates bubbles of EPIC proportion, because of inflation and inflationary expectations.

The last secular bull market in gold (1965-1980) is a prime example of that.

This current secular bull in gold, which is orders of magnitude larger then the last, will also end in an inflation/currency collapse driven bubble.

Yes. The collapse of a currency due to inflation will cause the price of gold in that currency to go up, but indirectly due to the devaluation of the currency. And, as I indicated, there can be some speculation. I didn't want to go into it because I was trying not to get too complicated. What is important to understand is that normal inflation (as opposed to hyper inflation) does not enter the market uniformly. It enters where government and banking pour the new money in and prices at or near the point of entry go up dramatically faster than in the rest of the market. This creates a direct inflationary bubble. Housing is the perfect example with prices increasingas a direct result of new money entering the system. Gold is generally NOT paid for with new currency and so its price is not inflated directly by new currency creation.

Stated another way, there are two kinds of bubbles: speculative and inflationary. Speculative bubbles are market phenomena that self-correct. inflationary bubbles are monetary phenomena that collapse economies. Gold is subject to speculative bubbles but not inflationary bubbles, except indirectly when inflation causes speculation. Housing is subject to both types of bubble - direct subsidy by creation of credit money and speculation built on top of it.

[Seraphim]

Inflationary forces always find themselves effecting the price of desired assets; including gold.

I do agree that there is a disproprotionate amount of the inflation that goes to the housing sector as a result of gov't policy (subsidies).

Yes. The collapse of a currency due to inflation will cause the price of gold in that currency to go up, but indirectly due to the devaluation of the currency. And, as I indicated, there can be some speculation. I didn't want to go into it because I was trying not to get too complicated. What is important to understand is that normal inflation (as opposed to hyper inflation) does not enter the market uniformly. It enters where government and banking pour the new money in and prices at or near the point of entry go up dramatically faster than in the rest of the market. This creates a direct inflationary bubble. Housing is the perfect example with prices increasingas a direct result of new money entering the system. Gold is generally NOT paid for with new currency and so its price is not inflated directly by new currency creation.

Stated another way, there are two kinds of bubbles: speculative and inflationary. Speculative bubbles are market phenomena that self-correct. inflationary bubbles are monetary phenomena that collapse economies. Gold is subject to speculative bubbles but not inflationary bubbles, except indirectly when inflation causes speculation. Housing is subject to both types of bubble - direct subsidy by creation of credit money and speculation built on top of it.

[PaulConventionWV]

Gold could go below $1000 this year.

You must be joking.

[PaulConventionWV]

So gold can always and only go up, eh?

What's the other side of inflation... Anybody?

[DFF]

Gold just broke out of a bull flag on the hourly chart...could take us to around 1350.

[westkyle]

Sorry, if I'm derailing, but where's the best place online to buy gold coins anyways, fellars?

[thoughtomator]

gold is going up
silver is going up faster

[oyarde]

Sorry, if I'm derailing, but where's the best place online to buy gold coins anyways, fellars?

I would find a local place.

[hated]

Sorry, if I'm derailing, but where's the best place online to buy gold coins anyways, fellars?

Depends on what you want.. https://comparegoldprices.com/

Check out their companion sites for the different PM's, too. There is a section for dealer reviews for you to read up on, if you'd like. Keep in mind, snail-mail a check and it's going to take forever. Do it with plastic and you're going to incur the fee.

[NoOneButPaul]

Sorry, if I'm derailing, but where's the best place online to buy gold coins anyways, fellars?

Apmex is the easiest way to buy, maybe not the best, but easiest. For extra money you can use a debit card and they ship quick.

I do prefer shopping around locally though.

[oyarde]

$1326.10 .

[Peter4Paul2016]

Silver Price Chart
Silver Price ticker is updated every 10 minutes to reflect the current spot price of silver and the chart will display the silver history for the silver price today with your choice or 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, 5 year and 10 year silver price history graph.

Silver Price Chart

Edit: I posted a very cool interactive price chart... but it doesn't show properly in the forum, so here's a link to a silver price chart instead! Oh well, hope it's still useful!

[Madison320]

Apmex is the easiest way to buy, maybe not the best, but easiest. For extra money you can use a debit card and they ship quick.

I do prefer shopping around locally though.

Yup. I've been using them also. No problems.

[DFF]

Somebody keeps banging gold and silver down at 7 pm during the asian session.

[oyarde]

Somebody keeps banging gold and silver down at 7 pm during the asian session.

$1324.20 right now .

[DFF]

Welp, complete reversal since I made that last post. Silver's broken out of it's range and is now at $22.07. Gold has broken out as well. More upside coming for both.

[oyarde]

Welp, complete reversal since I made that last post. Silver's broken out of it's range and is now at $22.07. Gold has broken out as well. More upside coming for both.

Yep , $1336.90 , $22.06 right now .

[Peter4Paul2016]

Wall St Journal -
Precious Metals Rally on China Data
Gold Prices Up to Highest Level Since Late October

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...?mg=reno64-wsj

[smokemonsc]

Wall St Journal -
Precious Metals Rally on China Data
Gold Prices Up to Highest Level Since Late October

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...?mg=reno64-wsj

I don't think it's debatable any longer that gold is 1337.

That is all.

[oyarde]

I don't think it's debatable any longer that gold is 1337.

That is all.

Currently @ $1342.40

[oyarde]

I figured it would be $1350 today .....

[DFF]

Gold has been outperforming silver the past couple of days.

[oyarde]

Gold has been outperforming silver the past couple of days.

I am a bit surprised it is only sitting around $22 , but that gives somebody a chance to pick a little up if they wish, so , maybe a good thing ....

[DFF]

The banks intentionally short sell silver to keep the price artificially low. If you look at the CME's commitment of traders, the commercials (banks) are ALWAYS more short than long.

[oyarde]

The banks intentionally short sell silver to keep the price artificially low. If you look at the CME's commitment of traders, the commercials (banks) are ALWAYS more short than long.

I have never looked at it , but always suspected that was the case .