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I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
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Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
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BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
Wonder if the 3-day bank run had a ripple affect on btc somehow...
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-sheyang...2--sector.html
One thing is clear...China can clearly move BTC moreso than the West.
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=8vxafo&s=8
bull vs bear : > can't decide whether to panic or not
So basically "touching the baseline" and giving a pretty strong rise signal? i guess? I can never tell, with red dragons.
BTC-Stamp, bounce off of 400 in 7-10 days, the channel is pretty obvious (daily and weekly), btc has been trading on technicals since peak at the beginning of the year. Will we finally get to see a 7/30 MA cross on the weekly chart? Hmm.. I think so. Hasn't happened since the coming out party that peaked almost 1 year ago.
If I'm wrong and BTC somehow manages to break counter trend resistance, I'd look for a rapid rebound to 700 in the same time frame. Considerable selling pressure as volume is beginning to ramp on the downside for the daily.
Good luck out there, I see some heavy losses coming after the bounce off 400 and new resist levels are established. I don't see this trend losing any steam anytime soon, regardless of news/developments or fiat investment.
This is a technical correction that is long over due, and the real test comes when the april 2013 peak support is breached, which I believe MUST happen to bring the technicals back in to harmony.
Hi litepresence,
(I'm also LibertyTeeth at BTC-e.) On Saturday, I signed up. I think it's neat the way I did it as well; I was using a different computer than I have a wallet on, so I used Coinbase to buy $51 worth (a bit extra, just in case I need for fees etc), and signed up for a month at CryptoTrader. Then I bought $100 worth to sign up for a month of Dragon Slayer A.
I really like that I did it that way! This aligns with "the future", in terms of it being a payment method, which I've read a few times on CoinDesk.
I want to report results, as well, which are so far really neat. I started with X amount of Litecoins, then sent some more in, and just to be careful turned the bot off and back on (looks like I didn't need to do that). It sold them all, in the first few hours. I also had recorded the price when I turned the bot on, so I could calculate both the total Litecoins (X) as well as the dollar value ($Y).
It bought; sold; bought; sold; the maximum draw-down was to one half of one percent below my initial $Y. Then yesterday, it sold out, ending about 24 hours ago; final sale was at $16.4.
Today, it's down significantly; right now near the low of $13.65, at $13.78. So it's already bringing me a "profit"! The dollar amount is two cents higher than $Y -- and the LTC equivalent (since I'm all in fiat right now) has increased X by 7.8%.
This all in a week, all at a time that's a bit early for the "bull run".
I am already very happy with my purchase! If it can do better than 1% a day at a time when it's not the best time to run it? I can't wait to see what it does this summer!
Life, love, and liberty,
LibertyTeeth
PS I love that it cancels an open order after exactly 1776 seconds. And not, for instance, 1788 seconds.
Wow some whale is dumping hard.
I'm thinking we have Wolves on Wall Street now, since IRS pretty much gave their blessing to btc yesterday. Wolves driving the panic sellers out the door (Chinese and American), getting as low as they can go; before they buy up everything they can get cheap, and up we go.
Just my humble opinion. But this is an orchestrated "crash", and too much of a coincidence a day or two after IRS legitimized btc for the hedge funds to invest.
Trading is such an emotional hobby.
I sold at 16 and bought back in at 15 and 14.5. I should be happy right?
No I am sad because I could have bought back at 12.50.....
It's really a technical sell off more than anything else. The way I read it, this is very healthy for any security that has seen such a meteoric rise. I don't even think the lows of this "bear" are in yet. The price was never really justified technically once it skyrocketed over the 260 level from the last bubble.
In fact, a really instructive analysis if you are all in to "curve fitting" as many appear to be, take a look at the 3 bubbles BTC has had.
First bubble launched from $1.20 (mtGox) to a peak of $31.91 (mtGox).
Second bubble launched from $17.59 (mtGox) and $17.60 (stamp) to a peak of $260 (mtGox) and $259.34 (stamp).
Third bubble launched from $163 (mtGox) and $147.39 (stamp) to a peak of $1242 (mtGox) and $1163 (stamp).
now, that is not the interesting part. The interesting part is the corrective lows.
First bubble corrective low $1.99 (mtGox).
Second bubble corrective low $50.01 (mtGox) and $45 (stamp).
Third bubble corrective low???
Let's curve fit.
Low/Launch = target ratio
1st Bubblit
1.99/1.20 = 1.658 (mtGox)
2nd Bubblit
50.01/17.59 = 2.843 (mtGox)
45/17.6 = 2.557 (stamp)
3rd Bubblit
x/163 = z (mtGox)
y/147.39 = z (stamp)
Since we are just have the 3 data points, lets smooth those out with averaging and let z (target ratio) be
(1.658+2.843+2.557)/3 = 2.353 and solve for x (corrective low mtGox) and y (corrective low stamp)
x/163 = 2.353
x = 163 * 2.353 = 383.54
y/147.39 = 2.353
y=147.39 * 2.353 = 346.81
Now for something REALLY interesting. Lets focus in on stamp for a minute. Stamp has posted a cyclical low of 382.21.
How does that fit our really simple linear regression model?
Plug in y!
382.21/147.39 = 2.593.
Whoa!
So, question now becomes, is the low in for stamp? I think it is (until it isn't), BUT, this is technical chart analysis. We must recall ALWAYS that past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is simply another way of stating that a one dimensional analysis based on a couple of peaks and troughs won't help you make any short term trading gains.
And if you are serious about cashing in on the upcoming volatility and not getting caught on the wrong side of a head fake paradigm shift, you'll consider one key point that I've always tried to make here regarding the bitcoin exchanges.
The free market makes technical analysis easy as pie.
So forgetting all the curve fitting which I just showed to work marvelously by the way, you really only need to watch one thing and one thing only in the coming week.
That is the weekly volume bars. If you pull up any bitchart site and look at any exchange, set it to weekly and zoom all the way out. Make sure obviously that you have the volume indicator on.
Couple of really really basic technical analysis observations.
Notice how the volume bars are getting bigger as the price falls?
Notice how the volume bars are getting smaller as the price rises?
Rising volume means conviction. Declining volume means doubtful.
Now, look at this week red (so far) volume bar.
If that volume bar passes the last green volume bar and it's red, then the price correction will be over and should sit somewhere well below the curve fit we just analyzed.
If it's green? Well you won't be too late to buy it because it will likely mean a counter trend reversal is in full effect and I believe the euphoria will once again take hold and another fractal rise will occur.
*note* weekly intraday figures
*disclosure* I have a very small position in BTC about 0.2 that I am holding for novelty purposes. I see this market correcting into the sub 200's before the end of the year. I'd like to see it get back down to around $100 or so before I seriously consider playing in it again.
From what I see in the full scale weekly charts, sub 100 is certainly not out of the question.
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
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BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
Stupid question, but how do you zoom in and out on bitcoinwisdom charts?
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
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BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
China buying like crazy still.
http://www.fiatleak.com/
Looks like we can now watch coins fly into Brazil as well.
Supposedly, the Chinese Central Bank is banning the ability to withdraw from exchanges. Bitcoin isn't banned, that was a mistranslation on Weibo (Chinese Twitter). But without being able to move funds in or out via traditional bank transfer, things just got more complicated.
This isn't 100% confirmed but similar reports are starting to pop up.
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
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BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel
BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
Bitfinex is an interesting exchange if you're feeling frisky. Can trade on Margin and deal with USD Swaps.
Buying some PPC. $2.30 is tough to resist.
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel
BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
I dunno, I managed to grab .0265. I bought higher too, at .027 just in case. I was backstage at a show nervously checking my phone before I had to go on. It filled just a few minutes before my entrance--what a rush! Presence's call @ $13 was spot on.
I used to think manipulation was at hand too (and I'm sure there's orchestrated manipulation going on in a market this small, sure, even if it's just whale friends calling each other up, "hey, you going to sell today?") but I don't think it happens as often as people think. People just get nervous about any sort of uncertainty, and the smart investors take advantage. Hopefully Wall Street was watching. I have a friend who sells securities and he asks me about Bitcoin every time I see him. He says it's talked about quite often in the trader circles, and they are very interested. The sense I get from him is that the risk and lack of regulated exchanges makes them nervous to invest, also the tech is very hard to understand.
Me too. This is very likely the final chance at cheap coins. In a year, "cheap" may have a new relative value.
Plus you can store your coins there to lend to margin traders for crazy interest rates. It's risky, but when demand is high you can earn returns you'd never see on traditional investments.
Looks like a bull trap is forming on LTC.
amonasro, you play in a band?
Does just holding the coins there earn interest?
edit: oh $#@! me no. swaps for BTC. That is gonna gox itself.
Last edited by muh_roads; 03-28-2014 at 01:47 AM.
Suffering from unexpected (for me anyway) turns in ltc, but then i look at this
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kpMvlGEj/
and i feel ok :-P
Wonder what will happen when additional trade tools and safety measures are added to the crypto ecosystem. Should result in more stable btc rates.
Wow, I gotta say I was freaked out by that drop because I thought consolidation had already occurred, but when I look at your graph, it looks like it's right where it's supposed to be. It seems like everyone underestimated the time it would take for this to occur, including pres. It's okay, though, pres, you're still great.
When I looked at the bitcoinwisdom charts and noticed the difference between the Gox post-consolidation and what I thought was post-consolidation this time, they just didn't match up and I figured something was wrong, but now it just looks like we had our timing off.
What I'm wondering now is whether it will continue to go lower. Any thoughts?
Last edited by PaulConventionWV; 03-28-2014 at 07:06 AM.
I'm an adventurer, writer and bitcoin market analyst.
Buy my book for $11.49 (reduced):
Website: http://www.grandtstories.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeviGrandt
Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/grandtstori...homepage_panel
BTC: 1NiSc21Yrv6CRANhg1DTb1EUBVax1ZtqvG
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