*I use average 357.63 # 363.76 finex slave; 351.503 btce master
Last edited by presence; 11-27-2015 at 08:16 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Ok, thx for the update. Personally, I'd like to see the trend brake on OkCoin (2280).Originally Posted by presence
It feels like waiting for godot
There's still crazy volume during upward price movements, so I am not counting this bull out yet.
Last edited by fatjohn; 11-27-2015 at 11:27 PM.
I CAN READ THAT CHART
WWW.AMAGIMETALS.COM
I'm a moderator, and I'm glad to help. But I'm an individual -- my words come from me. Any idiocy within should reflect on me, not Ron Paul, and not Ron Paul Forums.
Originally Posted by @fullmetaliberty
I'm a moderator, and I'm glad to help. But I'm an individual -- my words come from me. Any idiocy within should reflect on me, not Ron Paul, and not Ron Paul Forums.
30 Day Forecast
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Well, i think you might be right pres, but I'm still holding because I'm not convinced yet. But the stop loss is placed so at the very least I'll have gained a nice 10% in btc on this move.
What I'm finding strange about the action of the last days is that if you zoom out there are about 7 volume spikes in the last 5 days. Only 3 of them correspond with violent price rises and are diminishing in volume. The other four seem to come in an interval of 25.25 hours and hold for about three hours without moving the price too much. I don't quite know what to make of it but It makes me a bit more cautious and bearish.
"Final Run of the Bulls" tends towards a round top reversal... so you should have plenty of time here to make a decision... potentially at a better exit than my team.
we're out at about 2355 on 11/27 at 3:30 to 5:30 am EST (master signal 3:25 am; unix 1448612700)
Last edited by presence; 11-29-2015 at 09:55 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Last edited by presence; 11-29-2015 at 11:43 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Hi Pres, is fractal analysis your fav ? I enjoy watching all you guys peg the market while I'm too busy with my daily grind to engage.....
I'm still of the opinion that a large cup and handle pattern is still in the cards for BTC and LTC. This time frame seems to be correlating with the current system breaking down, reckless behaviour of central planners, and peoples increasing perception of money being digital and when the flows start out of stocks i.e. dow and S$P etc. there will be a stampede into silver and gold and Cryptos........
on 5m and 15m for positions I'll hold less than a day... YES
on 12h scale...
I trade primarily simple moving average crosses.
1) because any indicator is only worth the logic you apply to it and sma is plenty good enough of an indication
2) sma takes very little time for cpu to calculate... so backtest time is optimized; therefore your computer model goes through many more rounds rounds of refinements on much broader dataset.
Now regarding that blue/green/purple tri color image of ltccny btccny and ltcbtc...
the biggest thing to note there is the clear signal you get out of a 15m MACD with standard settings as to when to exit LTC via the ltcbtc to be there in time for both the LTCfiat move AND the BTCfiat move.
At first ltccny btccny and ltcbtc are in harmony.... then you see clear divergence; purple up... green and blue down; the first sign of that during a bullish movement
is key indicator to exit ltc to btc when ltc led the bull movement
Last edited by presence; 11-29-2015 at 09:30 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
I see a 7% short in LTC's future 0106 to 0099
...but I ain't touchin' here because 12h 30/60 are crossed fat bear on the btcusd where we just flipped the Final Bull Run.
Last edited by presence; 11-29-2015 at 02:16 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Phase 1 complete... back to 330 now
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
hey Pres, this is fractal too but for a longer term trade? do you find your trades work out better when you use fractal and MA combined?Phase 1 complete... back to 330 now
I am in agreement with LP that this is the deadcat on the 1D for now.
"bought 330 and HOLDING on mechanical timer to prevent flinch
I expect push back to the market top around 410 here; see image previous post"
^^^those look like decent numbers for finex
but it says you averaged out at 357? what made it do that. seemed clear that it was not done ye to me.
Regarding fractals, consider that fractal #1 (run to $1000 and its unraveling) occurred at the top of a major bull market where everyone and their mother were loaded up to the long side. These weak hands introducing supply as the price fell were the cause, bear market was the effect.
Fractal #2 (run to $500 and its unraveling) occurred shortly after a major bottom, after the market had absorbed massive amounts of selling for ten months. The supply float is in stronger hands now. Strong hands absorbing supply are the cause, bull market is the effect.
This might affect any fractal (occurring after the 10 month bottom) to the bull side. I could see us going into a trading range similar to Oct-Dec 2014. Except this time it will be reaccumulation into a new uptrend instead of distribution into a new downtrend.
I was off by 3 weeks.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Because we must FIRST reconcile the 30x60 12h cross.
+/- thresholds and micro scale criteria:
We bought 12h ma2 bull cross up into the 30x60 capitulation zone enter the "Final Run"
We dumped 12h ma2 bull cross up over the 30x60 capitulation zone to exit the "Final Run"
...as a matter of procedure when 30 and 60 are capitulating.
That is... if ma2 enters the 30/60 capitulation zone we can expect it will slingshot through that capitulation to form a "Final Run of the Bulls".
I do have a dev fork in the works that would rebuy the tip of this event to catch the extra push we saw yesterday...
But...
1) It needs to be fitted to historic data.
2) Its too late now; just because I can come up with a quantitative reason to be holding to the tip of tips in hindsight doesn't mean its a reason to be buying the tip of tips.
3) I'd like to see that we can exit this micro scale trade at a profit before I upgrade the crew to catch the next such instance.
...so another day on the tradewave backtest engine is my destiny
Honey Badger Z28 development fork
*the underlying theory that buys the upward tip of "Final Run of the Bulls" here in this 60 day window currently fails when exposed to much broader Jan 2012 to current dataset.
In the mean time... at the extremes there was a quickie bull run from 320 to 380 since Nov 25th.
I knew about that event quantitatively over a year ago and named it "Final Run of the Bulls"
My crew rode 332 to 357 for 7.5% cash gain in 48 hours with little risk.
I'm confident we'll get our coins back sub 357
Last edited by presence; 11-30-2015 at 09:50 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Quality thinking there.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Pres, but Honeybadger itself isn't meant to be the toppiest topper or the bottomiest bottomer, especially when looking at short term charts, but rather bets on the preponderance and gets long term buys and sells, in an automated/set it and forget it kind of way (with Pres constantly watching/reevaluating updating/upgrading in the background).
I'm a moderator, and I'm glad to help. But I'm an individual -- my words come from me. Any idiocy within should reflect on me, not Ron Paul, and not Ron Paul Forums.
That's more or less it. We're after meat and potatoes. We move a substantial sum of money; all in all out every time; so we can't touch high frequency low volume.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Pres, but Honeybadger itself isn't meant to be the toppiest topper or the bottomiest bottomer, especially when looking at short term charts, but rather bets on the preponderance and gets long term buys and sells, in an automated/set it and forget it kind of way (with Pres constantly watching/reevaluating updating/upgrading in the background).
The two limiting factors:
1) we trade 12h simple moving averages because I can backtest more and faster on that simple indication; meaning the logic of my computer model goes through many more iterations of refinement.
2) I built the system to move a LOT of money; we need to know its there when we need it... so +/- 3% and Honey Badger just don't care, we're after those 10%++ chops.
The other primary focus of my system is risk managment; both in BTC terms and in USD terms.
I divide the chart in to 4 primary "Modes"
1) Green Dragon 12h 30>60>90>150 (its a bit more complex than that)
2) Capitulation
3) Red Dragon 12h 30<60<90<150 (its a bit more complex than that)
4) Cat Bounce
I always buy 1 and 4 and always sell 2 and 3 when entering the new "Mode"
1 and 3 are traded at relatively low frequency; Mode 1 the lowest; 2 and 4 are traded at higher frequency; every 2 days or so.
Then I have rules that Subclass each Mode
reasons to sell overbought and then rebuy the Green Dragon
(if high is (2.8*the gap between 12h 30 and 60) above 12h 30)
reasons to buy oversold and then resell the Red Dragon
(if low is < 75% of 12h ma55)
a method of playing the shakeout in both Capitulation and Cat Bounce... etc.
Then I have rules which stoploss my subclasses
The rule to buy into "Final Run of the bulls" is such a "stoploss assets". We typically buy Capitulation in Despair as ma2 precipitously falls below ma90... that curiously, didn't happen this time before we pushed back into the 30x60 capitulation zone.
All rules must:
1) be quantitative involving 12h sma's
2) improve profitability against the btcusd dataset 2012 to current
Every position is held a minimum of 12 hours... but some are held for 60+ days.
Some subclasses disable others by mechanical timer to prevent flinch.
(with Pres constantly watching/reevaluating updating/upgrading in the background).
Last edited by presence; 11-30-2015 at 11:08 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/i...k-surface-area
How to Increase Your Luck Surface Area
If there's one thing I've discovered in recent years it's this. The amount of serendipity that will occur in your life, your Luck Surface Area, is directly proportional to the degree to which you do something you're passionate about combined with the total number of people to whom this is effectively communicated. It's a simple concept, but an extremely powerful one because what it implies is that you can directly control the amount of luck you receive. In other words, you make your own luck.
Here's how it works. When you pour energy into a passion, you develop an expertise and an expertise of any kind is valuable. But quite often that value can actually be magnified by the number people who are made aware of it. The reason is that when people become aware of your expertise, some percentage of them will take action to capture that value, but quite often it will be in a way you would never have predicted. Maybe they'll want to hire you, or partner with you, or invest in you, or who knows what. But in whatever way it happens, it will be serendipitous.
But it's not just the expertise that's important, the very passion that created the expertise has value in its own right. This is because people want to be excited about things and passion is infectious. When you do something you're excited about you will naturally pull others into your orbit. And the more people with whom you share your passion, the more who will be pulled into your orbit.
To satisfy my mathematically oriented brain I've gone one step further and formalized the concept into the equation L = D * T, where L is luck, D is doing and T is telling. This demonstrates clearly that the more you do and the more people you tell about it, the larger your Luck Surface Area will become. And while I like equations, it's the graphical representation that really brings the concept home.
My name is Jason Roberts and I live in Pasadena, CA where I'm a serial entrepreneur, freelance coder, and co-host of the tech / startup podcast TechZing.
Last edited by presence; 11-30-2015 at 11:35 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Starting to think there is still gas left in this tank. Maybe 410?I'm confident we'll get our coins back sub 357
How i hate it when china rises 3% and the US 1%.
If I didn't have "a honey badger" I couldn't help but tend to agree it looks moon right here...
But statistically;after slingshot up through ma 12h 30x60 capituation
the next step is slingshot down through ma 12h 30x60 capitulation to a bounce off of 12h ma90.
What may be very possible after that though is a repeat of final run of the bull which proceeds a movement toward a double top @ 410-450
but first step is back down to 12h ma90 @
2150 huobi
330 finex
320 btce
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
At this point I would be very surprised to see huobi going below 2360.
I think there is real support there, trending up at 1,2%/day from the post bubble low stretching to most recent take off. This is where I set and roll my stops until a real green dragon rises.
Edit: 2350
Last edited by fatjohn; 12-01-2015 at 03:12 AM.
They just kept slamming that down at 380. Major resistance up there.
Drive down #1 to 2350 complete. Usually two more drive downs follow after each shelf is done playing around.
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