The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[presence]

we moved back to fiat this morning.

This is the sma interaction we're playing until the consolidation breaks.... its not really to profit; although we've gained 3% coins twice... we're playing it to be on the right side when consolidation breaks.

image may extend off forum frame "right click view image"



removing the price noise; signal shows down now




out at small loss after +3% shares twice earlier



"resistance" still ominously downhill showing sma30 and sma60 12h continue to converge bearishly. tough call out into the future... if up we're looking towards 20% $360 break... if down a flash crash to $250 is very possible here; so this is an important consolidation to watch and be on the right side of as it breaks.

[presence]

'You're up against the adoption curve'

Circle, Bitreserve, and BitPay
are turning their backs on bitcoin

• Nov. 22, 2015, 11:42 AM

Some of the most high-profile and well-funded startups looking at bitcoin are now pivoting their businesses and distancing themselves from the digital currency, less than two years after the hype around bitcoin blew up.


Circle, BitPay, and Bitreserve — who between them have raised over $130 million — have all shifted away from bitcoin in one way or another in recent months.



That's after people failed to adopt it in the way entrepreneurs and venture capitalists had hoped.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/circle...option-2015-11

I don’t think bitcoin is going to be anywhere near as important as people say it is today.

Bitcoin itself may never be more than a curiosity.

If you invest in bitcoin thinking 'oh my god bitcoin is happening in the next 2 years and we should hire up and staff up really quick for that' you're probably going to feel some pain.

[kpitcher]

I will agree that it's harder to get people to start using bitcoin than say paypal, surprisingly so. When coinbase was offering $75 for a new account referral I tried to get all my facebook friends to sign up, splitting it with them. Free $40 for a few minutes of effort would seem to be an easy thing to get people to do. I had 1 do it. Not sure why it's any harder than paypal, same basic idea when using coinbase.

[muh_roads]

Look at ichimoku. I double my cloud settings to 52 on cryptowat.ch because bitcoin is non-stop 24-7.

Bullish kumo twist with the least amount of resistance coming up on the 2h. If the fiat hoarding bullwhales want to take advantage of the opportunity to mimic the fractal, that window of opportunity is approaching.

Currently bouncing hard off the bottom of the 2h bband.

[presence]

[djthistle01]

But this totally discounts any movement for halving in the late spring early summer. I can't get behind that.

the 4 wave up idea (wave 1 top already in) is one idea, but another thing you all should be looking at is the btc & drk/dash chart. btc double top has to be considered.

[djthistle01]

a chartless update from my groups calls is: all-in backed up the truck 230's, and then full bail at 477. I focused on shorting the dragons down versus buying the dip, though I did once. Shorting has been a better trade for sure.

I still have not given a buy call. looking at charts tonight for this week though. ltc fractal interests me, more so LTC/BTC ratio. there is a pattern in there that should send it back to 0.019-0.022 though it has failed 1 time historically, so not 100%.

lots of decent alts are all making the same pattern so I think we should get a short alts season before christmas still.

as for stocks i think GPRO is worth watching. getting hammered and technicals have it bouncing to 37 and perhaps 49 after it bottoms. with leverage on 1broker, simple or whatever...tradersway, idgaf lol, but building a leverage position should pay off well for the traders.

oil smashed and still has so many reasons to go lower technically, though it is winter so heating costs tend to add demand. oil is another that will pay off big for strong hands and a confirmed buy signal.

[presence]

HUGE MANIPULATION UNDERWAY IN LITECOIN



SELL 215,000 LTC @ 0.00967

[presence]

That's about 2000 BTC; $3,000,000.

[presence]

9554 Bitcoin Belonging To ISIL Seized By Hactivists

newsBTC-16 hours ago

[presence]

[fatjohn]

Pres, this doji is only on btc-e.
A 30 min candle with a 400 btc volume.

Why would these 400 btc's push the market in a direction?
on all exchanges combined this is probably an average 15 seconds of trading volume.

[presence]

Pres, this doji is only on btc-e.
A 30 min candle with a 400 btc volume.

Why would these 400 btc's push the market in a direction?
on all exchanges combined this is probably an average 15 seconds of trading volume.

A long legged doji and the action it contains doesn't push the market; it segments it. Everything before the long legged doji (on recent 30m candles) is like a link of sausage... and everything thereafter a new sausage link. A long legged doji is a big shake up... even when it occurs on just one exchange. Price opens and closes almost exactly the same but shows wild action for just one candle... Initially its going to go sideways for 7 or 8 candles within the shadow of the long legs... So the way you read a long leg or "spinning top", in my experience; especially in a sideways market... is wait 10 ten candles, and compare where the market is to where it was at the doji main body. If its below the doji close after ten... you're headed down... if its above the doji close after ten you're headed up.

Sometimes you'll get one in a strong trending market... if so I usually wait just 4 or 5 candles after the long leg to assess the trend.

When they show up after sideways action; 10 ticks into the future you get a pretty solid stoploss call.

When the show up after trending action; 5 ticks into the future you get a pretty solid reversal or continuation call.

As price moves outside the shadow of the candle wicks you can expect a measured move the length of that candle.


At least that's the theory

[presence]

We have 12h 30/60 cross down btcusd


BEAR MARKET CROSS

2:30 PM EST

NEW MODE: CAPITULATION






...and that concludes the October 2015 Green Dragon

[presence]

that long legged doji image from earlier got corrupted... I'll repost the fallout here, the candle in question is midchart




You can see clearly that the call can be made comfortably 10 candles after the long legged doji; and as expected the bear call is true; we're trending towards a measured move down; stack that on the 30/60 12h cross bear and things are looking pretty ominous here. Glad to be in fiat.

[muh_roads]

amon, you said u wanted to flip your monitor chart upside-down. Here u go.

http://upside-down.website/flipper/i...finex%2Fbtcusd

[amonasro]

amon, you said u wanted to flip your monitor chart upside-down. Here u go.

http://upside-down.website/flipper/i...finex%2Fbtcusd

Amazing, love it! Always good for a perspective change

[djthistle01]

here is my midterm view going into summer: http://www.coinstreetnews.com/2015/1...d-nov-25-2015/

[fatjohn]

that long legged doji image from earlier got corrupted... I'll repost the fallout here, the candle in question is midchart




You can see clearly that the call can be made comfortably 10 candles after the long legged doji; and as expected the bear call is true; we're trending towards a measured move down; stack that on the 30/60 12h cross bear and things are looking pretty ominous here. Glad to be in fiat.

I'm confused I saw a trendline breakout on high volume (massive spike on OKCoin) today and went long. Then I checked here after not being here for a couple of days and see you saying the total opposite.

[presence]

I'm confused I saw a trendline breakout on high volume (massive spike on OKCoin) today and went long. Then I checked here after not being here for a couple of days and see you saying the total opposite.

read this:

https://discuss.tradewave.net/t/the-...u=litepresence

...so with this mornings bullish action... I got to thinking...
has a 12h 30/60 capitulation reversal ever happened before?
how could I quantify a capitulation reversal?
is it possible to buy high and sell higher during capitulation?
hmmmmm...

[fatjohn]

read this:

https://discuss.tradewave.net/t/the-...u=litepresence

Ok good to know you could turn bull soon. Since I do not want to over trade I'll stay long for now and exit in case we would retrace to 2050.
However, I'd like to point out two things.

1) your downward sloping resistance on btc-e was broken for an hour and is now being flirted with

2) today was the highest volume day on Huobi and the second highest volume day on OKCoin. Ever! (well the record was established a month ago but still) (the last hour volume has died though)

[presence]

[presence]

The marketplace Honey Badger took a stoploss shares position last night; intrusion beyond threshold into the 12h 30/60 bear cross zone by 12h ma(2) was the trigger.

[presence]

fairly rare event to have happened yesterday, only twice before has there been a breach of the 30/60 bear cross. I did a lot of backtesting yesterday and was able to improve my Honey Badger algo from 3500X btc since 2012 to about 4200X by adding in a stoploss at the crossing. Of the 21 "Capitulation" calls the algo has made since 2012; only 3 have turned back bullish; this being the 3rd.

[nayjevin]

So it bought 330 sold 345?

Unrelated question:

If there were a verified distributed/decentralized exchange that made fake orders impossible, how would that affect the price of Bitcoin, if any?

(or is there something about my thinking that makes this question not make sense)

Thanks

[presence]

[presence]

So it bought 330 sold 345?

Thanks

bought 330 and HOLDING on mechanical timer to prevent flinch

I expect push back to the market top around 410 here; see image previous post

Unrelated question:

If there were a verified distributed/decentralized exchange that made fake orders impossible, how would that affect the price of Bitcoin, if any?

(or is there something about my thinking that makes this question not make sense)

You can fake volume but you really can't fake price. That is, if youre a big enough fish and you're comped 0% maker and 0% taker... you could put up orders and buy them back yourself just to pump the volume... Volume tends to lead price like a dog on a leash... so these methods can be used to spoof desire. I suspect that is what happened at ltcbtc 00967 the other day. It gives an illusion of high volume buying and overcoming a stick in the mud sell wall... but it might just be one giant fish taking a 0.2% loss on his bank (less comp) to hocus pocus the crowd... then wall goes bust... price spikes 10-20% on "real" volume and the magician can exit with prestige.

So would this process be stopped on a distributed zero fee p2p exchange? probably not.


------------

Now if you're talking about the exchanges themselves "faking volume". I tend to look at that like tinfoil; it would be disastrous on a PR level, and potentially at this juncture on a legal level, if such accounting irregularities were ever proved by the public. I just don't think its happening. I believe the high chinese volume can be entirely explained by

1) lots of chinese people
2) lots of really rich chinese people
3) zero fee trading on chinese exchanges


+ the proliferation of algo trading

[presence]

this is just the breakout and touchback from the bear pennant stop, I expect continuation to 400-420 btce

[presence]

I see a 7% short in LTC's future 0106 to 0099

[presence]