The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[amonasro]

weekly chart on stamp.

compare the 3 candles that tested/are testing 400. which one looks different? how do you read this? and why?

a clue, this past week was the lowest close since pre-bubble.

I see an incredibly oversold RSI.

I know that we don't agree on this point, but nothing about the Bitcoin protocol is broken or has changed. It's nice to muse about improvements or possible shortcomings and why we think it won't work, but that results in confirmation bias. The market doesn't really care what our opinions are, and always reflects the price people are willing to pay. It has brought us this far to these prices with the protocol in its current form, regardless of what the public thinks. In fact, the dev team recently released beta 0.9, millions of venture capital money is flowing in, Wall Street is interested, businesses are adopting, Litecoin is growing, and 500,000 coins are basically out of circulation for at least a year thanks to Gox (good news for the price). There is plenty of good news for a bright future, in my opinion, despite the fear about China taking us to pre-bubble levels.

In my music career I have faced so much rejection that sometimes I wonder why I even bother. It wears on you, slowly breaking you down. But I have a long-term outlook on my success... each time I'm rejected I grow a thicker skin, improve on my shortcomings and get back at it. All of these scary dips are essentially wearing people down, transferring coins to those who have a long-term view on cryptocurrencies with a thick enough skin to weather the storms that will come. If the weak hands don't believe in what they represent, they will distribute to those who do.

I think a lot of people lose sight and let greed get in the way. We don't need them holding bitcoins. They are not a get-rich-quick scheme, although there is money to be made here. If the Chinese don't want what Bitcoin represents, they will sell and life will go on. Satoshi summed up what crypto represents nicely:

The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. Their massive overhead costs make micropayments impossible.

A generation ago, multi-user time-sharing computer systems had a similar problem. Before strong encryption, users had to rely on password protection to secure their files, placing trust in the system administrator to keep their information private. Privacy could always be overridden by the admin based on his judgment call weighing the principle of privacy against other concerns, or at the behest of his superiors. Then strong encryption became available to the masses, and trust was no longer required. Data could be secured in a way that was physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter what. Its time we had the same thing for money. With e-currency based on cryptographic proof, without the need to trust a third party middleman, money can be secure and transactions effortless.

[PaulConventionWV]

395.00 on Huobi right now.

It's in yuan, of course, so I'm not sure exactly what bearing the dollar price has on them, if any. They may have levels of support and resistance that translate to slightly different dollar amounts.

[Dianne]

Chit, I just had my buy order filled $10.50 on LTC ... I was too late to stop it. I think I will shut down btc-e for two or three months, and not look, lolol.

[Dianne]

It's in yuan, of course, so I'm not sure exactly what bearing the dollar price has on them, if any. They may have levels of support and resistance that translate to slightly different dollar amounts.

Someone on another thread tonight hinted a group was going to test $400., and bring to upper $300.'s. They were successful on Huobi, but not btc-e (YET !).

I bought btc this past week at $550., and a few days later at $450 ... so I should have known that would be the kiss of death for btc. I have the worst luck, timing awful when it comes to investing in anything. So, guess my next buy in will be at $350.

[amonasro]

So who wants to break out the booze? How low will we go? I'm opening a bottle of hard cider, kind of like the opposite of champagne

edit: no one knows the bottom, Dianne, but buying in a bear market is the right thing to do.

[KCIndy]

I bought btc this past week at $550., and a few days later at $450 ... so I should have known that would be the kiss of death for btc. I have the worst luck, timing awful when it comes to investing in anything. So, guess my next buy in will be at $350.

Don't feel bad, Dianne. I bought in at 480 thinking it couldn't go much lower.... so you've got company. Now that I've spent my "expendable" fun money for the week, it'll probably drop to 240 and I'll be thinking, "I could have bought twice as much if I had waited!"

[newbitech]

I see an incredibly oversold RSI.

go here

https://www.tradingview.com/e/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

turn on Relative Strength Indicator and Stoch RSI. Bitcoin Wisdom shows the Stoch RSI.

RSI is oversold/overbought on 30/70. You don't get that setup with Stoch RSI. RSI on the weekly is middle of the road. It's touching oversold on the daily, but just barely.

RSI Stoch is a fast oscillator for RSI. It's and indicator of an indicator.

Perhaps what may be more telling is we are seeing a marked shift in the accumulation distribution trend. It looks like for the first time since BTC has been trading on Bitstamp we are starting to see money flow going out of the security.

[amonasro]

^^gotcha. Still, oversold when comparing past data from final capitulations. $380 is the real support, if we break below that, then we can talk

DOGE breaking below 100 satoshis. Buy target is ~80 according to the double top reversal. It may jump back to 100 if the pattern repeats a fourth time.

[newbitech]

^^gotcha. Still, oversold when comparing past data from final capitulations. $380 is the real support, if we break below that, then we can talk

DOGE breaking below 100 satoshis. Buy target is ~80 according to the double top reversal. It may jump back to 100 if the pattern repeats a fourth time.

Not to nitpick you but there is a slight slope to the bottom of the triangle. This was the Nov 18 2013 intra day low. It was the crash the day after the huge 200 USD move up.

Anyways, you have 2 more points on that line. 378, 382, and 400. That sets you right around 410 for last line in the sand support. You really don't want to see it touch 410 if you are holding long term anywhere above 410 and want to cash out before the price corrects or the USD crashes.

[muh_roads]

pres' Dragon Slayer 2.0 is buying aggressively hard right now in the 10.80's (simulated trading). I'll keep you guys updated.

I'm also running another with RSI Stoch & SAR in the code. No idea what you guys are talking about but since it was mentioned I'm gonna fire it up and see what happens. I think it should only be used when crashing...but not 100% sure on that.

[muh_roads]

...aaaand it just sold @ 10.58 for a bit of a loss...lol

I guess it wants to wait till she bleeds out a bit more before banging away with green dildo's again.

[lotsOfCake]

What principle is that? The principle of losing money? If I were you, I would stay the hell away from litecoin at least until the next BTC bubble.

Well, on "double down. And on "buy on red candle". And no it doesn't match with market sentiment at all, I am aware.

[Dianne]

Don't feel bad, Dianne. I bought in at 480 thinking it couldn't go much lower.... so you've got company. Now that I've spent my "expendable" fun money for the week, it'll probably drop to 240 and I'll be thinking, "I could have bought twice as much if I had waited!"

Let's be encouraged by amonasro's comment that buying in a bear market is the right thing to do. I am somewhat encouraged this morning that btc-e is not willing to dip below $400.00 without putting up a good fight. I do dread the pending blood bath this weekend though.

[PaulConventionWV]

Well, on "double down. And on "buy on red candle". And no it doesn't match with market sentiment at all, I am aware.

Unless you're planning on shorting, LTC has quite a way down to go.

I guess I should note that I'm really talking about LTC/BTC. Litecoin may very well go up, just slower.

[PaulConventionWV]

Someone on another thread tonight hinted a group was going to test $400., and bring to upper $300.'s. They were successful on Huobi, but not btc-e (YET !).

I bought btc this past week at $550., and a few days later at $450 ... so I should have known that would be the kiss of death for btc. I have the worst luck, timing awful when it comes to investing in anything. So, guess my next buy in will be at $350.

My understanding is that the reason we tend to buy at the wrong time is because we behave just like the rest of the market, in that the market can basically predict the times at which we have our hopes and fears and reacts accordingly. We feel the best when the market is just about to run out of buying pressure, and we feel our worst just when the market is about to run out of selling pressure because we are human and we behave like most other humans, generally. The goal is to do the opposite of that with the help of some technical indicators. In the words of Michael Jackson, just remember to always think twice. I really should have known better than to buy at $493 last time, but I didn't think twice. It was just so predictable, and now I'm kicking myself for missing the real lows.

[PaulConventionWV]

On a positive note, the overwhelming sentiment on tradingview.com seems to be that the bears are finally out of fuel and we are at the point of a low-risk entry point. There will still be a lot of fear as bitcoin slowly moves away from the lows, but it should recover in time.

[Dianne]

On a positive note, the overwhelming sentiment on tradingview.com seems to be that the bears are finally out of fuel and we are at the point of a low-risk entry point. There will still be a lot of fear as bitcoin slowly moves away from the lows, but it should recover in time.

That makes sense. Are you still in ltc as well?

[PaulConventionWV]

That makes sense. Are you still in ltc as well?

Nope. I think the downtrend has already started. LTC/BTC is looking bearish long-term due to the clear break below EMA 135, but that's not to say you can't use the LTC swings with something like pres's dragon slayer bot to make a nice profit. I may start using a LTC bot once we establish a true BTC bull.

Also, on the 3d chart you can see the 45 MA crossing below the 95 MA, at which point the price tries to stay with the 95 MA but makes a clear breakthrough. This also explains the divergence in the 45 and 95 MAs on the 1w chart.

I'm starting to like this technical analysis thing.

[newbitech]

Nope. I think the downtrend has already started. LTC/BTC is looking bearish long-term due to the clear break below EMA 135, but that's not to say you can't use the LTC swings with something like pres's dragon slayer bot to make a nice profit. I may start using a LTC bot once we establish a true BTC bull.

Also, on the 3d chart you can see the 45 MA crossing below the 95 MA, at which point the price tries to stay with the 95 MA but makes a clear breakthrough. This also explains the divergence in the 45 and 95 MAs on the 1w chart.

I'm starting to like this technical analysis thing.

So I got to thinking about this. BTC Bull's apparently are all horn and no huff. Given the fact that every time BTC has entered "Bull Market" it turns into an enormous spike like the tip of a bull horn.

I think I might draw a picture like that.

[PaulConventionWV]

So I got to thinking about this. BTC Bull's apparently are all horn and no huff. Given the fact that every time BTC has entered "Bull Market" it turns into an enormous spike like the tip of a bull horn.

I think I might draw a picture like that.

Quit being a hater. It looks like it's going to turn bullish this time, and who knows what will happen after that? I'm certainly not claiming it's absolutely the future of money or free of risk, but it's worth a shot.

[newbitech]

Quit being a hater. It looks like it's going to turn bullish this time, and who knows what will happen after that? I'm certainly not claiming it's absolutely the future of money or free of risk, but it's worth a shot.

It is what it is.

[muh_roads]

Having the worst luck lately. Was out of town during the last LTC bull run to 034. Now pres is out of town for the next 3 weeks while we go thru this red dragon turmoil.

[muh_roads]

The chart is semi-logarithmic. The price ticks are equidistant based on percentage. So a move from 10 to 100 would be the same as a move from 100 to 1000.

The analysis which produced the chart has a couple of misrepresentations.

1.) A pennant pattern is a symmetrical triangle. There isn't a "falling" pennant pattern. A flag would be horizontal as well.

2.) The chart doesn't show volume. In flag and pennant patterns, volume is important for validating the trend (as in most trend patterns).



So yes this is an interesting view of the percentage price moves. I do spot the rising trend in this chart and I do recognize the patterns. I don't however give this analysis more weight than the arithmetic chart analysis that shows volume and linear price history.

I believe proper trend analysis and pattern spotting needs to be done in light of other indicators. Indicators which are arithmetic based price and not log based price.

I think a simpler explanation is the chart I posted looks like it scaled things down on the y-axis if your pivot point is at the bottom. (Pretending we're in an art program like maya or something)

Is that deceptive? I thought the picture the way it is shows the "bubbles" from a different perspective. That our trajectory is an upward s-curve based on supply & demand adoption. We will have $#@! tons of volatility between each new attained level of course. This is where those red dragon bots come in.

[newbitech]

I think a simpler explanation is the chart I posted looks like it scaled things down on the y-axis if your pivot point is at the bottom. (Pretending we're in an art program like maya or something)

Is that deceptive? I thought the picture the way it is shows the "bubbles" from a different perspective. That our trajectory is an upward s-curve based on supply & demand adoption. We will have $#@! tons of volatility between each new attained level of course. This is where those red dragon bots come in.

well yeah it's a log scale, the trend lines aren't really lines tho, they are curves. It does show the bubbles from a different perspective but it's not much different than looking at the US debt in the log scale.

No one is going to claim that curve is sustainable. Right?

[lotsOfCake]

I'm just waiting for that moment where the market decides that "OK this is the bottom, right here", and we turn towards a longer uptrend.

Because if I knew perfectly when that was, i would buy back some LTC at that time (even if it might tank until the next bubble). If i knew.
Since I don't know, I have already bought. So I am betting on there being an upturn as the market flips.

So I'm waiting for an upturn. Might have to wait past the infamous April 15th, even if it is bull.

---------

Another thing; there are the repeating bubble patterns in BTC/USD. Some of them, back in 2012 and such, look different. They tank with red dragons to the pre-bubble prices. That's at the back of my mind sometimes when i look at the long-term bubble patterns.

That said, I think crypto is here to stay, that the network effect is, well, in effect, and i think BTC is the most famous "brand name" in crypto.
So then I am thinking, what could possibly replace BTC ?
In terms of code quality, some of the best "open source ish" code comes from private corporations like Google sponsoring development for part of the code base (for example, Android based on Linux). It is just that:
1. a "privately owned source code" or even just "closed source code" wouldn't be trusted by crypto experts, and the opinions of crypto experts are starting to matter.
2. any coin that tries to profit from a major improvement... well, that part can be added to the Bitcoin source code (as long as they don't change the nature of the blockchain)

So yeah something better might come along and take over but, it is definitely not here yet, and hopefully we will be able to see it coming. No, i isn't embedding text in the blockchain, it isn't auto-mixing, it isn't Scrypt (+variants like lite, doge, ultra), it isn't primecoin, and it isn't mastercoin. They are only sidekicks. There will continue to be GPU-mined sidekick coins, and while we can make money on speculation in them, they will not take over the "dedicated hardware" mining market for BTC.

Anything that could threaten BTC's market position would have to have some revolutionary difference.

----

Anyway I think the red dragons will end, possibly with a spectacular event followed by relative stability and a single altcoin bubble followed by a long altcoin tank until the formation of the next bubble. Why? Because that's what happened in April 2013<->Nov 2014. That's all i got, the rest is guesstimation based on market indicators etc etc, like 5/11 Moving Averages on 1h candles of USD/BTC and USD/LTC. And others.

The only thing that lets me make guesses about movement in LTC/BTC is;
When BTC was in the same phase of the bubble->burst->dragons->tank->low->bubble thing, LTC/BTC behaved a certain way at certain times. Such an even right now (within 2 weeks) seems likely.

TL;DR all i got is "guess what will happen nov2013->July2014, based on what happened April2013->Nov2013"

[lotsOfCake]

Just wanted to clarify the "spectacular event" thing, it sounded odd.
Could be something like:
China bans bitcoin.
Some other big country bans bitcoin.
Bitcoin ATMs for buying(but not selling) bitcoin pops up all over U.S. (texas?)
U.S. makes some sort of federal law about bitcoin, positive or negative.
Some country that is easy to trade with officially adopts Bitcoin for some purpose or other.

Any of those would make a strong impact on the market. I'll be watching Bitcoin related news for the months to come :-> And holding.

[PaulConventionWV]

Having the worst luck lately. Was out of town during the last LTC bull run to 034. Now pres is out of town for the next 3 weeks while we go thru this red dragon turmoil.

I was wondering where pres went. I was afraid he had quit the thread because he was wrong about the charts.

[PaulConventionWV]

well yeah it's a log scale, the trend lines aren't really lines tho, they are curves. It does show the bubbles from a different perspective but it's not much different than looking at the US debt in the log scale.

No one is going to claim that curve is sustainable. Right?

I guess it depends on your definition of sustainable.

Was it sustainable for radio? Color TV? The internet?

[PaulConventionWV]

I'm just waiting for that moment where the market decides that "OK this is the bottom, right here", and we turn towards a longer uptrend.

Because if I knew perfectly when that was, i would buy back some LTC at that time (even if it might tank until the next bubble). If i knew.
Since I don't know, I have already bought. So I am betting on there being an upturn as the market flips.

So I'm waiting for an upturn. Might have to wait past the infamous April 15th, even if it is bull.

---------

Another thing; there are the repeating bubble patterns in BTC/USD. Some of them, back in 2012 and such, look different. They tank with red dragons to the pre-bubble prices. That's at the back of my mind sometimes when i look at the long-term bubble patterns.

That said, I think crypto is here to stay, that the network effect is, well, in effect, and i think BTC is the most famous "brand name" in crypto.
So then I am thinking, what could possibly replace BTC ?
In terms of code quality, some of the best "open source ish" code comes from private corporations like Google sponsoring development for part of the code base (for example, Android based on Linux). It is just that:
1. a "privately owned source code" or even just "closed source code" wouldn't be trusted by crypto experts, and the opinions of crypto experts are starting to matter.
2. any coin that tries to profit from a major improvement... well, that part can be added to the Bitcoin source code (as long as they don't change the nature of the blockchain)

So yeah something better might come along and take over but, it is definitely not here yet, and hopefully we will be able to see it coming. No, i isn't embedding text in the blockchain, it isn't auto-mixing, it isn't Scrypt (+variants like lite, doge, ultra), it isn't primecoin, and it isn't mastercoin. They are only sidekicks. There will continue to be GPU-mined sidekick coins, and while we can make money on speculation in them, they will not take over the "dedicated hardware" mining market for BTC.

Anything that could threaten BTC's market position would have to have some revolutionary difference.

----

Anyway I think the red dragons will end, possibly with a spectacular event followed by relative stability and a single altcoin bubble followed by a long altcoin tank until the formation of the next bubble. Why? Because that's what happened in April 2013<->Nov 2014. That's all i got, the rest is guesstimation based on market indicators etc etc, like 5/11 Moving Averages on 1h candles of USD/BTC and USD/LTC. And others.

The only thing that lets me make guesses about movement in LTC/BTC is;
When BTC was in the same phase of the bubble->burst->dragons->tank->low->bubble thing, LTC/BTC behaved a certain way at certain times. Such an even right now (within 2 weeks) seems likely.

TL;DR all i got is "guess what will happen nov2013->July2014, based on what happened April2013->Nov2013"

To be honest, I think we already saw the bottom. Just look at the 1d chart for the capitulation point after the last bubble. They look very similar so far.

[newbitech]

I guess it depends on your definition of sustainable.

Was it sustainable for radio? Color TV? The internet?

the parabolic curve up? No it wasn't. Nothing in this world can/will sustain parabolic growth for the simple fact that human population cannot grow parabolic on this planet forever. Perhaps when humans are able to colonize other bodies in the universe, parabolic growth will be possible and sustainable. Until then, things like adoption of the radio, color tv, and the internet will reach a point where the growth curve will become a simple function of human population growth.