The Litepresence Report on Cryptocurrency

[zeMan]

OkCoin now has 20x leveraged BTC trading... you can make some serious money on there if you know what you're doing

[amonasro]

OkCoin now has 20x leveraged BTC trading... you can make some serious money on there if you know what you're doing

Problem there is that you get margin called on tiny price movements... not really worth the risk.

[muh_roads]

It's just not worth selling right now if you rode it down. Might as well wait to see how 300 is tested at these levels since it is so close...

Bitfinex seems way oversold. It is usually $10 higher than btc-e. It is strange seeing it on par or below now. Lots of people must've been margin called or something on 'finex.

[PaulConventionWV]

Problem there is that you get margin called on tiny price movements... not really worth the risk.

Yeah, I'd be uber-careful trading with that much leverage. That's just asking for trouble.

[PaulConventionWV]

It's just not worth selling right now if you rode it down. Might as well wait to see how 300 is tested at these levels since it is so close...

Bitfinex seems way oversold. It is usually $10 higher than btc-e. It is strange seeing it on par or below now. Lots of people must've been margin called or something on 'finex.

I think we may get a bounce here, but I'm pretty convinced that we're going sub-300 for a panic. We still haven't seen a lot of volume yet and no real bounce which tells me this is a healthy trend which hasn't reversed yet. I think we need to see $240-260 before a real reversal. A break below $300 would be a good short opportunity and then go long somewhere around the $250 area when you see high volume and fast, panicky selling because that's when it's bound to reverse.

[RonPaulIsGreat]

20x trading. hrmmmm....

20 x 40=800 BTC, so 800 bucks per dollar price swing. hrmmm...

So, to make a 100K bucks. BTC would have to gain 125 dollars at full leverage.

That might be worth it it if caught a rapid price dip.

[PaulConventionWV]

20x trading. hrmmmm....

20 x 40=800 BTC, so 800 bucks per dollar price swing. hrmmm...

So, to make a 100K bucks. BTC would have to gain 125 dollars at full leverage.

That might be worth it it if caught a rapid price dip.

It would have to be fast, and it almost certainly wouldn't be THAT fast. Imagine how quick the fees would stack up.

[Crashland]

Putting money in bitcoin this early is already only for those with extremely high risk tolerance. 20x leverage is straight up casino gambling

[RonPaulIsGreat]

Putting money in bitcoin this early is already only for those with extremely high risk tolerance. 20x leverage is straight up casino gambling

Naw, putting money in bitcoin this early is for people that hate the banks, and understand that in large part power extends from the financial system. Also it's for people that value decentralized systems as opposed to centralized systems that are easily corruptible.

It bothers me that the price is falling, but what good is money if not to try to kill that which you hate. If a better solution comes about I'll get into that as well. Also as soon as openbazaar gets "finalized" I'll start searching there first for online buys.

Decentralization is the only real way to change anything, it's to easy to control a few choke points, but try to control 100000 points, and it becomes more difficult.

Essentially I support any legit system that promotes decentralization of anything, bitcoin is one tech. 3d printers another, openbazaar another, ethereum will be another. Sooner or later something is going to stick, and the world will be better for it.

[Barrex]

I thought that "Microsoft implementing Bitcoin" would keep the price from falling or get it even higher.

[Crashland]

I thought that "Microsoft implementing Bitcoin" would keep the price from falling or get it even higher.

In my view, the whole problem with 2014 has been that vendor acceptance of bitcoin has boomed, and it has boomed much faster than the customer demand to actually acquire bitcoins. People who already had bitcoins were spending them in all the new places, and then those vendors were selling it for fiat. If companies were as quick to start offering to pay some or all of employee wages/salary in bitcoin, then that would have counteracted the selling pressure. Imagine the effect if Microsoft, instead of just adding bitcoin as a payment method, if they had also offered their 128,000 employees the option to receive some or all of their paycheck in bitcoin. If that starts happening, bitcoin will, as they say, "go to the moon". The question is when, or if, that will happen.

[muh_roads]

I thought that "Microsoft implementing Bitcoin" would keep the price from falling or get it even higher.

btw, there are rumors that Ford Motors will be the next big Fortune 500 company to accept BTC.

To try and answer your question, whales are $#@!ing around as they always do. I know a few first-hand that are constantly accumulating for more via consolidation.

Play the swings. The Bitcoin ecosystem will work itself out again. Right now there is a perfect $#@!storm of a ridiculously high mining hashrate...combined with centralized mining where the ASIC makers are overcharging too much...combined with large retail adoption where Bitpay & Coinbase are dumping for fiat.

When next-gen ASIC is affordable again in a way that makes sense with the difficulty...and suppliers/distributors/retailers are keeping more and more of their sales in BTC by exchanging between each other directly, cashing out fiat less and less (it will happen) is when things will get nuts again, IMO.

People say 2015 will be the year for Bitcoin, but the more I think about it, the more I believe 2016 will be the big year. The mining reward per block will halve from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC in 2016. 2015 I think will still be a really good year. Especially for those who are accumulating and learning how to trade.

Trading BTC requires balls of steel. Eyes on the prize. Financial freedom is not an overnight thing.

[presence]

The noteworthy thing we can all glean right now about that bot:

12/09 12:00 SELL $346

holding cash

more on this...

that was 12h candles, but at a finer resolution on 5m candles; the same code yeilds:

[2014-12-09 06:45:00] RED DRAGON
[2014-12-09 06:45:00] SELL: 1000.00 BTC

in the code "mode 3" was just triggered

when entering mode three the first rule is sell

if ((resistance < MA150) and (MA2 < MA90) and (MA2 < MA150)):
   red_dragon = True

MA150 etc are 12h candle SMA's of their respective number.

I consider resistance a "proprietary" line, but you can see it plotted here with the last 3 occurances of the beginning of what I'm calling a "red_dragon" event pinpointed in white:



The image is of the past two year: April 2013 (gox) and November 2013 (china) bubbles until present. Per the way I've been defining a long bear slide: The beginning of a fourth "red dragon" is Dec 9th 2014.



image may extend off edge of screen; right click "view image" for full



litepresence says:


to da flo



anyone wanna relay that one for me to btc-e trollbox; maybe with a link to the image or this post?

You has been banned. 779916 min left

eta: nevermind... litepresence2 account still live

[muh_roads]

The MACD on the 4H looks good for a potential run.

Ultimately tho, ya...to da flo. $200? Not for a little while tho IMO...many elliot wave bounces will happen before arrival.

Bounce feels close. If 300 w/ a margin of error (-5%) doesn't show resistance I'll be surprised.

[presence]

I'm looking for 2+ weeks of bear slide.

[presence]

image may extend off edge of screen; right click "view image" for full

This chart shows breadth marks of both "green_dragon" and "red_dragon" events from 1/2013 to present. I use these events as upper level indicators to break my code into 4 phases:



1. Green Dragon
2. Post Green Dragon
3. Red Dragon
4. Post Red Dragon



I trade each of the 4 types of events under a different set of rules. This has been a hallmark of my trading theory since I got into bot building.

Here's the April 2013 bubble zoomed in:

[PaulConventionWV]

Possibly looking for a big move down to the $250 level, which I think is the most likely outcome right now. This is a very good opportunity because it just so happens that the end of a huge, year-long triangle meets right at that point with the long-term uptrend line that has never been broken yet. If we bounce strong there, then we could be headed to new all-time highs. I'm looking to buy at $250 and hold long-term. If that doesn't happen, however, watch to see if $350 level is broken, and look for a possible buy there.

Here's my last chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/yjL30BU0/

Good luck!

[Dianne]

Possibly looking for a big move down to the $250 level, which I think is the most likely outcome right now. This is a very good opportunity because it just so happens that the end of a huge, year-long triangle meets right at that point with the long-term uptrend line that has never been broken yet. If we bounce strong there, then we could be headed to new all-time highs. I'm looking to buy at $250 and hold long-term. If that doesn't happen, however, watch to see if $350 level is broken, and look for a possible buy there.

Here's my last chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/yjL30BU0/

Good luck!

Do you think we will continue going sideways through the rest of December?

[PaulConventionWV]

Do you think we will continue going sideways through the rest of December?

I doubt it. According to my model and other people I follow, this last crash should happen relatively quickly. If it were to move sideways for an extended period of time, I would start becoming more bullish. I'm bullish long term anyway, but I wouldn't be expecting a crash first if that were the case.

[presence]

How to plot a “cloud” indicator

[Dianne]

I doubt it. According to my model and other people I follow, this last crash should happen relatively quickly. If it were to move sideways for an extended period of time, I would start becoming more bullish. I'm bullish long term anyway, but I wouldn't be expecting a crash first if that were the case.

Thanks !! I'll be sure to set my buys tonight before bed. Are you also looking at XPY/Paycoin. The trollbox is on fire for this coin.

[amonasro]

I see a fairly traditional Wyckoff accumulation phase playing out right now. I've been trading it since the bottom out at $275 when I got a piece of the $300 30,000 coin sell wall. A high-volume selloff and subsequent "no-supply" or automatic rally define the high and low areas of the trading range. If it is true accumulation, we should see sell volume taper off at the lows of the range (~$280-300) and increase at the range highs (~$400-$430) as the available coin supply is absorbed by whales, smart money and professional interests who want to buy at wholesale prices and sell to the general public during a markup phase.

Anyway, I'm long at $305. The sellers are clearly running out of ammo, even though there is not a lot of buying pressure (probably due to the holidays) so the price has been drifting up.

[PaulConventionWV]

Thanks !! I'll be sure to set my buys tonight before bed. Are you also looking at XPY/Paycoin. The trollbox is on fire for this coin.

No, I only trade BTC. I don't pay any attention to the trollbox.

[PaulConventionWV]

I see a fairly traditional Wyckoff accumulation phase playing out right now. I've been trading it since the bottom out at $275 when I got a piece of the $300 30,000 coin sell wall. A high-volume selloff and subsequent "no-supply" or automatic rally define the high and low areas of the trading range. If it is true accumulation, we should see sell volume taper off at the lows of the range (~$280-300) and increase at the range highs (~$400-$430) as the available coin supply is absorbed by whales, smart money and professional interests who want to buy at wholesale prices and sell to the general public during a markup phase.

Anyway, I'm long at $305. The sellers are clearly running out of ammo, even though there is not a lot of buying pressure (probably due to the holidays) so the price has been drifting up.

That pump really put a dent in my bearish outlook. I'm not necessarily looking for a large drop anymore, but I'm still watching to see if I have an excuse to go full bull. There may be another pullback to $320s even if we don't go lower than that. The average trader is starting to wise up to the fact that the bear market might be ending, and it could lead to a massive accumulation phase followed by possibly another mania phase, aka bubble.

[PaulConventionWV]

I would hold off on those buy orders for a little while longer. It may still go down. I think I underestimated how little of December was left, but it may take a bit longer to reach the bottom. If it breaks above $340, then I would consider that a buy signal, but I really don't expect that to happen just yet.

[Dianne]

I would hold off on those buy orders for a little while longer. It may still go down. I think I underestimated how little of December was left, but it may take a bit longer to reach the bottom. If it breaks above $340, then I would consider that a buy signal, but I really don't expect that to happen just yet.

I'll keep my eyes on it. It wish it would do something, one way or the other.

[PaulConventionWV]

I'll keep my eyes on it. It wish it would do something, one way or the other.

Patience, young grasshopper. We've been in a year-long descending wedge, and things are bound to get less volatile toward the end. We'll find out soon enough, but now probably isn't the best time to buy in yet.

[muh_roads]

Well that's what I get for supporting 330...it then decides to drop to 320. Gotta love that whale $#@!ery.

On a side note, the big Tampa Bay ESPN Bitcoin Bowl is starting and goes on for a week I think?

[Dianne]

Well that's what I get for supporting 330...it then decides to drop to 320. Gotta love that whale $#@!ery.

On a side note, the big Tampa Bay ESPN Bitcoin Bowl is starting and goes on for a week I think?

I bought at $332. last night ... sigh. I should have warned you guys a drop was sure to come. I am the kiss of death for bitcoin when I buy.

[presence]

image may extend off edge of screen
Honey Badger v3.0 says last trade was

[2014-12-19 11:00:00] CRYPTO LONG = MOON
[2014-12-19 11:00:00] BUY: 92783.74074449 BTC (at 312.00 USD)


I'm working on getting a live simulation up.