Time to Come Clean, RPF -- Predictions for 2013 Reflections

[Jordan]

Last year, I asked RPF to make predictions about the year ahead. Being a fair and reasonable person, I made my own. Now it's time to come clean and see how what we thought would happen measures with what actually happened. I'll kick this off with my own predictions.

Here is my original post, with comments underneath each prediction.

I firmly believe that:

1) Unemployment rates will fall just below 7% from 7.7% as the economy picks back up.

Nailed it. Well, basically. Unemployment is at 7% and December's rate won't come until January.

2) New car sales will continue to build to more than 16 million cars per year, up from a recent record high of 15 million cars.

Nailed it. 16.31 million.

3) Stocks will end the year only slightly higher in 2013 than in 2012. Less than 10% returns are likely. Acquisitions will drive small cap stocks and we'll see a return of leveraged buy outs as cheap money and an improving economy encourage the obvious investments that need to be made by corporate executives.

Missed it. The bull market of 2013 was well beyond my wildest expectations. Although, small caps easily exceeded the returns of large caps.



Worth noting, though, that DELL was the biggest buyout we've seen since 2007ish.

4) Home sales will continue to rise as people go back to work, work on their balance sheets, repay debt, and realize that renting is a terrible proposition at the current price. Home sales will cross and sustain 5 million units per year.

Nailed it. Teetering at 5 million units.

5) Housing starts will reach and sustain a 900,000 annual rate, perhaps even 1 million annual starts per year, up from roughly 800k at present.

Nailed it. Over 1 million.

6) Hyperinflation will not happen.
Very obviously nailed it. No link required.

I hope the rest of you who participated in last year's thread will reflect on your own predictions, and take part in the next predictions thread, which I'll kick off in the next week.

[gwax23]

The unemployment is only going down as the labor force shrinks and people move onto part time work and jobs unrelated to their education (Making less) Official unemployment figures are bogus and are constantly revised.

[Jordan]

The unemployment is only going down as the labor force shrinks and people move onto part time work and jobs unrelated to their education (Making less) Official unemployment figures are bogus and are constantly revised.

Whatever you say, gwax23. You down for some predictions for 2014?

[FSP-Rebel]

N B4 BTC is "dead, dead, dead"

[gwax23]

Whatever you say, gwax23. You down for some predictions for 2014?

No.

Also I didnt disregard your other successful predictions, you possibly made the right predictions but its meaningless. We are in a bubble so these feel good stats are meaningless because they will end.

[Jordan]

No.

Also I didnt disregard your other successful predictions, you possibly made the right predictions but its meaningless. We are in a bubble so these feel good stats are meaningless because they will end.

As with anything, the economy is cyclical. Over the next few years, these kinds of posts will do a lot to prove that predicting the cycles is almost impossible. I'm sure we'll all be hit with a recession/boom we couldn't possibly see coming.

[Danke]

QE will continue to prop up the markets and governments will continue to lie.

[gwax23]

As with anything, the economy is cyclical. Over the next few years, these kinds of posts will do a lot to prove that predicting the cycles is almost impossible. I'm sure we'll all be hit with a recession/boom we couldn't possibly see coming.

Hence why I denied to partake in predictions, especially useless short term ones. The short term is volatile. Further the economy is only cyclical because of the Fed/Government (despite the reason for the Fed to end the business cycle) A true free market you would rarely if ever see such predictable booms and busts.

[TER]

I predict Danke will become abassador to Uzbekestan.

[helmuth_hubener]

I predict Uzbekistan will become abassador to Danke.

[helmuth_hubener]

Good job on your prediction thread, and on this follow-up. Very good. I approve.

[devil21]

I didn't make any predictions but looking at Jordan's predictions, he pretty much just predicted more gov't interference in the markets and obfuscation of data. And he was right. Good job?

[helmuth_hubener]

Prediction : Jordan will be banned before he's able to come back and examine his prophecies :P

Tpoints
Banned

Ha, ha, ha!

[devil21]

My views on your predictions and why they were accurate or somewhat accurate.

1. Unemployment rate prediction is based on lower labor force participation rate and transition to a part-time hiring model.

2. New car sales increases are based on gov't purchases. [For the first time in recent history], the most 'popular' color sold in 2013 was white. No need to explain why that is. [edit: Correction: White was most popular for the second year in a row.]

3. Stock markets = QE, followed by cutting labor forces and reduced quality and quantity of input materials.

4. Umm.....people didn't "go back to work" so I'll give you a 50% mark on that prediction. Another rate bubble and much of the buys are Chinese investment and speculation purchases from Fannie Mae.

5. New starts was accurate. For reasons see #4.

6. Nope, no hyperinflation yet.

Your predictions were pretty accurate. Too bad they trivialize the overall deteriorating economic environment.

[gwax23]

My views on your predictions and why they were accurate or somewhat accurate.

1. Unemployment rate prediction is based on lower labor force participation rate and transition to a part-time hiring model.

2. New car sales increases are based on gov't purchases. For the first time in recent history, the most 'popular' color sold in 2013 was white. No need to explain why that is.

3. Stock markets = QE, followed by cutting labor forces and reduced quality and quantity of input materials.

4. Umm.....people didn't "go back to work" so I'll give you a 50% mark on that prediction. Another rate bubble and much of the buys are Chinese investment and speculation purchases from Fannie Mae.

5. New starts was accurate. For reasons see #4.

6. Nope, no hyperinflation yet.

Your predictions were pretty accurate. Too bad they trivialize the overall deteriorating economic environment.

This

[oyarde]

OE will continue to prop up the markets and governments will continue to lie.

I think Danke is onto something with this gubmit dishonesty. I will buy him a beer now . I am certain he is correct !

[cubical]

Let's give it a go. I think was 2 for 5 last year.

Gold will fall below $1000.

The 10 year will touch 4%.

QE will not end.

Home prices will finish lower.

S&P will finish higher on the year.

[oyarde]

I predict Danke will become abassador to Uzbekestan.

Cool , I always wanted to go rainbow trout fishing in Uzbekestan with a spinning rod . Danke is the bomb .

[TER]

Cool , I always wanted to go rainbow trout fishing in Uzbekestan with a spinning rod . Danke is the bomb .

Hopefully he will be able to join us on the trip. I'm sure he will be busy arrainging energy deals, promoting Coca-Cola, and other such important diplomatic work.

[oyarde]

Let's give it a go. I think was 2 for 5 last year.

Gold will fall below $1000.

The 10 year will touch 4%.

QE will not end.

Home prices will finish lower.

S&P will finish higher on the year.

#2 Sounds reasonable , #3 is certain, #4 sounds correct to me , I have no idea about the other two and would have missed on them last time ....

[RJB]

Gold will shoot to $5,000.00 an ounce or it will drop to $500.00 an ounce.

Most likely it will go somewhere between those two numbers.

[oyarde]

Hopefully he will be able to join us on the trip. I'm sure he will be busy arrainging energy deals, promoting Coca-Cola, and other such important diplomatic work.

I will even pitch in a Silver Eagle towards his Coca Cola/ energy deal expense account . I know he will have a bunch of new consumers to wine & dine ....

[TER]

Gold will shoot to $5,000.00 an ounce or it will drop to $500.00 an ounce.

Most likely it will go somewhere between those two numbers.

I think you are dead wrong on this prediction. I'm guessing somewhere between $5,001.00 and $499.00

[TER]

I will even pitch in a Silver Eagle towards his Coca Cola/ energy deal expense account . I know he will have a bunch of new consumers to wine & dine ....

You mean vodka & dine.

[gwax23]

Whats this Uzbekistan thing all about...

[TER]

Whats this Uzbekistan thing all about...

we weren't suppossed to say anything until the New Year, but Danke got a promotion.

[oyarde]

Whats this Uzbekistan thing all about...

How do you like your freshly caught trout cooked ? I like mine over an open fire , some potatoes , eggs.The good life ....

[heavenlyboy34]

Hopefully he will be able to join us on the trip. I'm sure he will be busy arrainging energy deals, promoting Coca-Cola, and other such important diplomatic work.

I don't understand the Uzbeks' language, but if y'all can use my Russian skills (pretty sure there's still Russian influence there), I'll tag along.

[TER]

I don't understand the Uzbeks' language, but if y'all can use my Russian skills (pretty sure there's still Russian influence there), I'll tag along.

ROAD TRIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[osan]

As with anything, the economy is cyclical.

I was just about to ignore this silly thread when you started talking real $#@! here, the implication that cyclical is an organic character of the business cycle. Boom-bust periodicity is an artifact of manipulation coupled with usury in the form of debt currency. There is nothing "natural" about it. It is pure artifice.