Last year, I asked RPF to make predictions about the year ahead. Being a fair and reasonable person, I made my own. Now it's time to come clean and see how what we thought would happen measures with what actually happened. I'll kick this off with my own predictions.
Here is my original post, with comments underneath each prediction.
I hope the rest of you who participated in last year's thread will reflect on your own predictions, and take part in the next predictions thread, which I'll kick off in the next week.I firmly believe that:
1) Unemployment rates will fall just below 7% from 7.7% as the economy picks back up.
Nailed it. Well, basically. Unemployment is at 7% and December's rate won't come until January.
2) New car sales will continue to build to more than 16 million cars per year, up from a recent record high of 15 million cars.
Nailed it. 16.31 million.
3) Stocks will end the year only slightly higher in 2013 than in 2012. Less than 10% returns are likely. Acquisitions will drive small cap stocks and we'll see a return of leveraged buy outs as cheap money and an improving economy encourage the obvious investments that need to be made by corporate executives.
Missed it. The bull market of 2013 was well beyond my wildest expectations. Although, small caps easily exceeded the returns of large caps.
Worth noting, though, that DELL was the biggest buyout we've seen since 2007ish.
4) Home sales will continue to rise as people go back to work, work on their balance sheets, repay debt, and realize that renting is a terrible proposition at the current price. Home sales will cross and sustain 5 million units per year.
Nailed it. Teetering at 5 million units.
5) Housing starts will reach and sustain a 900,000 annual rate, perhaps even 1 million annual starts per year, up from roughly 800k at present.
Nailed it. Over 1 million.
6) Hyperinflation will not happen.
Very obviously nailed it. No link required.
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