New home prices bust past bubble time peak

[Seraphim]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...me%20Price.jpg

NEW Home sales are now priced higher than the PEAK of the housing bubble.

Discussion;

Is this a double top or an indication that the USD is going all toilet paper on us?

I'm really starting to count the days down to currecy collapse (a major one). It won't be the USD first (cough, YEN, cough). HOWEVER the implications of that will have negative impacts on American markets.

The FED is already inflating to keep up with Japanese money printing.

[EBounding]

Houses in my neighborhood that would have sold for $100K a year ago are now being listed at $180K. It's like 2006 deja-vu, except this time the economy is even weaker...

[Seraphim]

My inkling is not double bubble - it's currency collapse.

I think people who fixed their rates and bought after the bubble burst will see the value of the loan they took out plumment as currencies get torched.

Houses in my neighborhood that would have sold for $100K a year ago are now being listed at $180K. It's like 2006 deja-vu, except this time the economy is even weaker...

[Jordan]

It's an indication that new home sales are primarily in more expensive markets, like San Francisco, and not in places where prices haven't yet recovered. Using aggregates is silly.

[cbc58]

double bubble.

[Yieu]

It's an indication that new home sales are primarily in more expensive markets, like San Francisco, and not in places where prices haven't yet recovered. Using aggregates is silly.

Thanks. You seem to have your hands in this market more than others so I was looking for your response.

Seraphim,

While I do think a currency collapse is the direction currencies are being pushed, and things can happen very quickly, I don't think it will happen quite that quickly.

[thoughtomator]

Currency destruction. Real value is still substantially less. Since the last high on that chart we've added about $10T in federal debt, printed in excess of $30T - much of which was aimed at the housing market very specifically - and added another $10T in student debt, which is defaulting at record (and rising) rates.

[tod evans]

Pay attention to the price they sell, not what they're listed for..

[KingNothing]

It's an indication that new home sales are primarily in more expensive markets, like San Francisco, and not in places where prices haven't yet recovered. Using aggregates is silly.

Totally agree with this assessment.

[Seraphim]

I agree that aggregates are not the holy grail the Keynes clap traps claim it to be - but aggregates are what are used to determine recessions and booms.

Consistent use of metrics does provide some feedback.

It's an indication that new home sales are primarily in more expensive markets, like San Francisco, and not in places where prices haven't yet recovered. Using aggregates is silly.

[KingNothing]

These metrics are tricky. Is this just list price? If so, with interest rates so freaking low, new-home-buyers are able to go after bigger, better, more expensive houses for lower monthly payments. On a $300,000 loan, every 1-percent decrease in interest rates knocks about $175 off the monthly payment. That implies that between now and the peak, the monthly mortgage could be about $350 cheaper, for the same exact home. Put another way, off the top of my head, I think this means that due only to mortgage rate differences, the monthly payment on a house today is equivalent to the monthly payment on a house ~$80k more expensive several years ago.

You've got to make sure you're comparing apples to apples. Places like Zerohedge are good sources of information, but they're so often bombastic and willfully, knowingly, ignoring important details.

[No1butPaul]

This article from the Seattle Times gives great insight to what is happening in that market at least.

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...estorsxml.html

This is just the beginning of a huge wave of investment

[BAllen]

They can put whatever price they want on a house. What happens when nobody buys?

[libertyjam]

A house I know just sold for 8G's over his already ridiculously high listing price.

[tod evans]

A house I know just sold for 8G's over his already ridiculously high listing price.

Where?

Nothings moving in the Ozarks.

[libertyjam]

Where?

Nothings moving in the Ozarks.

N. of Dallas, I could seriously think of moving to MO, except they have a property tax on everything there, your car, your house, your tractor, your land, your livestock, probably even the dog.

[oyarde]

N. of Dallas, I could seriously think of moving to MO, except they have a property tax on everything there, your car, your house, your tractor, your land, your livestock, probably even the dog.

When you get settled in , pm me for tips to avoid livestock & dog tax.

[Fredom101]

It's an indication that new home sales are primarily in more expensive markets, like San Francisco, and not in places where prices haven't yet recovered. Using aggregates is silly.

I own a house in Corpus Christi- not exactly an expensive market- and it's gone from a low of $159k a year ago to worth around $175k today. It's not just the expensive markets that are rising, it's everywhere.

[oyarde]

I own a house in Corpus Christi- not exactly an expensive market- and it's gone from a low of $159k a year ago to worth around $175k today. It's not just the expensive markets that are rising, it's everywhere.

I have never bought one that was three figures to start with.

[nobody's_hero]

They can put whatever price they want on a house. What happens when nobody buys?

Banks that sit on the assets will be bailed out and therefore continue to sit on the assets while the little guy gets ****ed in the rear. Same as 2008.

Without a bailout, these banks would be forced to liquidate the assets and it could mean getting many people into homes they would like to buy but can't afford. So, yeah, that's not gonna happen.

Been looking at a house myself, lately. Don't know whether to buy or keep saving.

[Keith and stuff]

Home prices are substantially below the bubble prices in New Hampshire. I suspect that chart is a lie or just referring to new homes as it says. Since labor and material prices continue to rise, I'm not surprised that new home prices would increase. That makes a lot of sense. However, they will continue to go up for years, overall, unless something crazy happens.

[Michigan11]

I agree with Jordan on what he said.

A couple other things, is that there are ALOT fewer homes for sale if you look around pretty much any where. The past few years I have been living in Vero Beach, FL and South East Michigan. I travel the areas far outside of where I live on a regular basis.

There are alot of areas that are still way under what the peak price was, but there aren't many in those areas selling anymore. Those areas are generally the older suburban neighborhoods from what I have noticed.

The newer areas, or where the area is very stable by a concentration of more well to do individuals however... these areas also don't have as many homes for sale, but they are generally able to sell their homes quickly and it's varying lately.

If you look at the landscape of trends, alot of the huge metropolis suburbs of old are turning into large swaths of renters, and prices generally go down in those areas, and they aren't exactly magnets for jobs as they once were. Essentially as this country is lossing its good jobs, the minority of Americans still making a go at it, is moving into smaller suburban areas and that is where these price increases may be coming from.

As time goes on thought these economic statistics are not meaninful for the average American in concern to his/her own well doing. These numbers better reflect the shrinking minority of Americans still moving along.

[Brian4Liberty]

All of the empty homes have been sold (in areas other than war-zones like Detroit). The question is, how many people long ago stopped paying their mortgages, yet are still in their homes?

[Brian4Liberty]

This article from the Seattle Times gives great insight to what is happening in that market at least.

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...estorsxml.html

I tend to agree. A lot of this is investment (again). Just like the last bubble.

And once again, there is a large share of foreign investment. All of those US dollars are coming home to roost.