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Thread: U.S. unemployment rate at lowest since 2008. Don't buy into the Hype.

  1. #1

    U.S. unemployment rate at lowest since 2008. Don't buy into the Hype.

    Today the Government supposedly had released (Feel good jobs data) just after last week showing that the economy was going back to the 2008 levels in other terms that the economy was heading towards a slowdown. But today that all changed. Don't buy into the Hype.
    U.S. unemployment rate at lowest since 2008
    U.S. economy creates 165,000 jobs in April


    From MarketWatch.

    The pace of U.S. hiring partly snapped back in April after a surprising dip in March, suggesting that job creation is holding steady despite a raft of signs pointing to a third straight midyear slowdown in the economy.
    “It’s a heck of a lot better than other economic indicators were suggesting,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
    The acceleration in hiring also nudged the unemployment rate down to 7.5% from 7.6% in March. That’s the lowest level since December 2008, the month before President Obama took office.
    The unemployment rate fell even though the size of the labor force increased, which is a good sign. People enter the labor force when they think there’s a better chance of finding work.
    As some people whom arent buying into the hype these government funded jobless data numbers don't count the people who already stopped looking for work since 08 as unemployed.

    Here's another report from MarketWatch.
    According to the report by MarketWatch even though the size of the labor force increased, the government said Friday. What's more, hiring in March and February were revised up by a combined 114,000. The increase in hiring in April beat Wall Street's forecast.

    Meanwhile, the number of new jobs created in March was revised up to 138,000 from 88,000, the Labor Department said, while February's figure was revised up to 332,000 from 268,000. The number of jobs created in February was the highest since November 2005 for any month that did not include temporary Census bureau hiring. In April, professional services added 73,000 workers; bars and restaurants hired 38,000 people; and the retail business generated 29,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and construction shed 6,000 jobs, perhaps due to colder than normal weather in the month. Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents to $23.87
    Notice how quickly the MSM pundits blamed the weather for the reason why construction shed 6,000 jobs? seriously now blaming the weather for and perhaps due to colder than normal weather in the month? thats rather quite ridicules.

    The picture says it all to them its all a huge laugh and an joke. Notice the hats? they already had them even before the DOW had hit 15000.


    The dark side of the data.
    Dark side to jobs report: Big drop in hours worked
    But there was a dark side to the report: Total hours worked fell sharply, and the total amount of money earned by U.S. workers actually declined from the month before.
    For instance, some analysts applauded the 29,000 gain in retail-sector jobs in April as a sign that consumer spending is holding up well in the face of the fiscal drag caused by the tax hikes and government spending cuts.
    The reality of the new unemployment rate and jobs data is that these supposed jobs that were included weren't high wages paying jobs they were low paying wages jobs. From retail stores to restaurants and farms.In other forums i am hearing how some members in there companies are actual hiring people but as usual i highly doubt such claims.

    New update.
    US factory orders down 4 percent in March

    Another example.

    "The report Friday from the Labor Department was a reassuring sign that the U.S. job market is improving".

    Two days ago: "The Toronto stock market closed sharply lower amid indications of slowing growth in the Chinese and American economies."
    And now all of a sudden its good news by lowing paying jobs? something isn't right with this picture.



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  3. #2
    Whatever ,Nobody is buying BS, fewest people actually working, in most of your Lifetimes, most on on Food stamps, most drawing social security disability ... Trillions of debt that can never be pd . , no budget, no cuts , oh yes , the future may be bright , just not for most . I am old , I have worked myself to a point where , I should already be dead.Considering I had done this so many times before , and gotten by with it, I guess I can commit to at least three more days , Lord willing , LOL. I wish all of you the best ! Godspeed.

  4. #3
    LOL! That doesn't take into account those who have no work but just ran out of benefits, or those who have part time work but want full time. You want to see the real picture? Try this chart Ron tweeted a couple of months ago (it is updated at the link regularly):

    Data extracted on: May 4, 2013 (2:02:14 AM)

    Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

    Series Id: LNS12300000
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
    Labor force status: Employment-population ratio
    Type of data: Percent or rate
    Age: 16 years and over



    https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/297366676222128129
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  5. #4
    Big drop in hours plus 165,000 more jobs? Weird, if they are dropping hours you think they wouldn't be hiring more.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Whatever ,Nobody is buying BS, fewest people actually working, in most of your Lifetimes, most on on Food stamps, most drawing social security disability ... Trillions of debt that can never be pd . , no budget, no cuts , oh yes , the future may be bright , just not for most . I am old , I have worked myself to a point where , I should already be dead.Considering I had done this so many times before , and gotten by with it, I guess I can commit to at least three more days , Lord willing , LOL. I wish all of you the best ! Godspeed.
    How old are you and what kind of work do you do?

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    Big drop in hours plus 165,000 more jobs? Weird, if they are dropping hours you think they wouldn't be hiring more.
    they drop hours to avoid Obamacare (under 30 hours means they don't have to provide it) but if they need the employee time they hire more people, who are also under 30 hours.
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by sailingaway View Post
    they drop hours to avoid Obamacare (under 30 hours means they don't have to provide it) but if they need the employee time they hire more people, who are also under 30 hours.
    That makes a lot of sense, but Obama Care doesn't go into effect until next year I think.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    How old are you and what kind of work do you do?
    Well , I cannot type, spell , roof , survey ,make anything square, or any woodworking, but am knowledgable in geology, archeology , metallurgy, paleontology , horticulture , botany,anthropology, agriculture,numistics , drinking ,smoking , cussing, but mostly , for a main living , I have always been a manager of some sort , mostly mnfg of diferent types , and use the others on the side.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    That makes a lot of sense, but Obama Care doesn't go into effect until next year I think.
    Enrollment is October. They are doing it now.
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    That makes a lot of sense, but Obama Care doesn't go into effect until next year I think.
    it takes time for employers to adapt, especially when it comes to major personnel changes.
    "Sorry, fellows, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by sailingaway View Post
    Enrollment is October. They are doing it now.
    Nice to know, so maybe there will be a real hiring boom for PT workers. When you have nothing, that is at least something. It just sucks for all those former full timers that are now part timers.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    Nice to know, so maybe there will be a real hiring boom for PT workers. When you have nothing, that is at least something. It just sucks for all those former full timers that are now part timers.
    I don't know about a boom. If there are ten 30 hour workers they only need one more to reduce them all below that, but it would be more people, yes.
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  15. #13
    Interesting analysis on market-ticker: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=220385.

    The basic gist of it is that the hours worked went down .2 hours on average and that if they had kept hours the same and laid off instead, it would have resulted in a 700k drop.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by sailingaway View Post
    LOL! That doesn't take into account those who have no work but just ran out of benefits, or those who have part time work but want full time. You want to see the real picture? Try this chart Ron tweeted a couple of months ago (it is updated at the link regularly):

    Data extracted on: May 4, 2013 (2:02:14 AM)

    Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

    Series Id: LNS12300000
    Seasonally Adjusted
    Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
    Labor force status: Employment-population ratio
    Type of data: Percent or rate
    Age: 16 years and over



    https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/297366676222128129
    As has been said before, running out of benefits has zero effect on you being considered in or out of the work force. What matters is if you say you are actively looking for work. If you are receiving benefits, you must be actively looking for work. If you stop receiving benefits but continue to actively search for work, you are still in the work force- even if your benefits have expired. If you do stop looking for work when the benefits run out then yes, you are no longer considered in the work force but it was the looking or not looking which made the determination- not the benefits.

    As for the chart, the work force participation has fallen from a high of 63% in 2008 to about 58.5% today- a drop but not as huge as it may seem. Also note that the chart indicates that the work force participation rate has pretty much stabilized since late 2009. It is not continuing to shrink (but neither has it grown much- it has slightly incresed).

    High paying jobs vs low paying jobs. Another thing to consider. If you lost a job after being with a company for several years, you had probably worked yourself up to a higher salary and benefits. If you have to start at another company even doing the exact same job, you will again be starting at the bottom so your salary will not be at the same level it was with the old company until you again work your way up. This will also help show that new jobs pay less than old ones.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 05-04-2013 at 11:56 AM.

  17. #15
    I think the drop is significant , and permanent .Not good .

  18. #16
    funny...i LOST my job in April...
    FLIP THOSE FLAGS, THE NATION IS IN DISTRESS!


    why I should worship the state (who apparently is the only party that can possess guns without question).
    The state's only purpose is to kill and control. Why do you worship it? - Sola_Fide

    Baptiste said.
    At which point will Americans realize that creating an unaccountable institution that is able to pass its liability on to tax-payers is immoral and attracts sociopaths?



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  20. #17
    Factory orders, down 1.9 % Feb , down .4 % March, Cummins sales, down about 38 % fron one yr ago , Cat slashed earnings projections for 2013.Global slowdown looks to be on the way ?

  21. #18
    Fed Res does not expect any chance of unemployment falling to 6 % until at least 2015. Considering the number of people who will be entering the work force , my guess , is never.

  22. #19
    Still at the lowest labor force participation rate since about May, 1979 , best I can tell. I would guess economic growth of less than 2 percent for the current quarter.
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-04-2013 at 05:25 PM.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jkr View Post
    funny...i LOST my job in April...

    BUT TV SEZ THINGS R IMPROVING!



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