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Thread: Excellent Kyle Bass interview from today

  1. #1

    Excellent Kyle Bass interview from today

    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park



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  3. #2
    One key point for you younger RP'ers - he states the downside on American residential property, overall, is mostly bottomed. The downside of a fixed rate term that you can afford is minor. Upside is low as well. In short, mostly stable. Which is structurally important for any property market.

    Holding/adding to gold.

    Long US equities.

    Portfolio mostly on the long side.

    Short Japanese markets at about 1% of portfolio allocation - upside of 300-1. Incredible. Not much else is held as a short position. Mosly long USA. Ironically enough, the US is one of the strong horses in a race where the competitors are all slowly down.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  4. #3
    I can say as a mostly unbiased Canadian - the USA is in a world of hurt but it's still the best game in town. You aren't the only ones facing challenges. The others are WORSE off. By a wide margin.

    If the Union can stay together on sound fiscal and social terms, the 21st Century will not be owned by the Chinese. It will be owned by the USA and China (primary super powers).

    Remember, the rest of the world...is in a world of hurt.

    The Stallion remains the USA.

    Whip it back into lead horse shape.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  5. #4
    Here is the problem with Japan. Put your head in the mind of a massive private holder of JGBs. The 10 year bond trades for 32.5 bps and the central bank has stated they will print and devalue the yen. Now further assume that the nominal price of JGBs and other debt can not go down in yen.

    Under these assumptions: There is 0 reason to hold the yen denominated debt and every reason to eliminate the risk of a currency depreciation and sell. Basically, the boj has the risk that everyone just says "sold" to their insane bid for bonds through QE. The amount of money to essentially buy the bond market in Japan will make the boj print an absurd amount higher than "only" doubling the monetary base. If this happens, rates will not move down (although there will be a lot of volatility), and the currency could get destroyed from boj printing along with private selling of the yen denominated assets in exchange for other currencies. Things could get very interesting.



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