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Thread: "Abortion Restriction is Still a Winning Issue" (discusses "Ron Paul Youth")

  1. #1

    "Abortion Restriction is Still a Winning Issue" (discusses "Ron Paul Youth")

    Last night, I was having some discussions about the future of the GOP (I mentioned these in my post yesterday), and I was asked whether we need to give up on abortion, moot it as an issue, and focus on less sensitive issues (like the economy) in order to win over young people, especially Ron Paul supporters. I said that we did not need to do that. In fact, I believe, it would be counter-productive; backing down on abortion abolition would not only be a grave injustice, but would actually injure us in our ground game and at the polls.

    This is not conventional wisdom, and I could tell that there was more than one skeptic at the table when I said what I did. So I figured I’d better spend a little time today pulling together some data.

    First, about the Ron Paul folks: Ron Paul was the most ardently pro-life candidate in the 2012 race. Rick Santorum had the reputation as the die-hard social conservative, but that was not quite true when it came to abortion. Paul signed the Personhood Pledge, authored Personhood legislation before it was cool, and put together the most innovative and promising federal abortion legislation in years. That’s why Norma McCorvey (the original “Roe” in Roe v. Wade, now a devoted pro-lifer) supported Ron Paul for President. Clearly, when it comes to Ron Paul supporters, opposing abortion is not a deal-breaker.

    And this matches up neatly with my experience in “the movement.” Ron Paul supporters fell into three categories on abortion: those who were devotedly pro-life and did not want to support a “pro-life with exceptions” candidate (e.g. Romney), those who were pro-choice but did not consider it a “make-or-break” issue, and those who simply had no strong opinions on abortion. (DISCLAIMER: I was one of those pro-lifers. For more on why I backed Ron Paul, read my endorsement from last year, “Why I Support Ron Paul for President.”) If Republicans want to win Ron Paul supporters, some can be enticed with stronger positions on abortion. To be fair, though, most of those Paulites already voted for Romney (or Virgil Goode), with only a few exceptions. The rest of Paul’s supporters considered Paul’s abortion position a neutral or a negative, but those supporters are motivated by other issues, so the Republican outreach to them should begin with those issues, not with abortion.

    Indeed, Paul helped awaken a division in movement libertarianism as a whole: there are some libertarians, like Gary Johnson, who see abortion as a matter of women’s liberty, and therefore support legal abortion. But there are others in the liberty movement, like Ron Paul himself, who see abortion as a matter of fetal liberty (the first, most fundamental liberty being the right not to be killed unjustly), and therefore support treating fetuses like the people they are under state and federal law. Repositioning Republicans on abortion to appeal to the pro-abortion libertarian caucus would do them few favors with the anti-abortion libertarian caucus, and would alienate traditional social conservatives (i.e. “Santorum conservatives”) to no good end.

    So much for abortion and the Ron Paul kiddies. But the question I was asked was not about us Paulbots. It was about young people as a whole, and how they view abortion.
    More, and internal links, here: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2013/03/...winning-issue/
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden



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  3. #2
    To be fair, though, most of those Paulites already voted for Romney (or Virgil Goode), with only a few exceptions.
    Wha? The pro-life Ron Paulers went to Romney?
    Last edited by tfurrh; 03-20-2013 at 09:34 PM.
    "It's probably the biggest hoax since Big Foot!" - Mitt Romney 1-16-2012 SC Debate

  4. #3
    My stance on abortion: THE 10 GRAM RULE

    The pro life movement needs to get off of the hail mary pass mantra. This country will never go from RVW to zero tolerance in one step.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  5. #4
    Very interesting statistics in OP's article. Agrees with what I've seen before.
    Original supporter of Ron Paul since 2007 and lifelong supporter of liberty and the Constitution. I stand with Rand.

  6. #5
    first.. make it illegal to abort just because someone had a mistake with a one night stand. (satisfies pro-lifers partly and satisfies social conservatives).

    then go from there.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by alucard13mmfmj View Post
    first.. make it illegal to abort just because someone had a mistake with a one night stand. (satisfies pro-lifers partly and satisfies social conservatives).

    then go from there.
    A unintended consequence of that could be that you have a increase in the amount of false rape charges.

  8. #7
    Great points. Ron Paul most certainly was the most pro-life presidential candidate there was.

  9. #8
    I disagree, completely. I think at least a third of Ron Paul's support was from people who were pr o-choice (including myself). Furthermore, with the old-hat baby-boomers dying off, abortion is going to become a bipartisan issue within the next 15 years. This is going to be a pro-"choice" nation, for better or for worse, and you'd be better off accepting that. I don't necessarily agree with abortion, but I am pro-choice because I think there aren't enough opportunities in the world for new life to thrive.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Sayzak View Post
    I disagree, completely. I think at least a third of Ron Paul's support was from people who were pr o-choice (including myself). Furthermore, with the old-hat baby-boomers dying off, abortion is going to become a bipartisan issue within the next 15 years. This is going to be a pro-"choice" nation, for better or for worse, and you'd be better off accepting that. I don't necessarily agree with abortion, but I am pro-choice because I think there aren't enough opportunities in the world for new life to thrive.
    re bolded, and if you read the article it says that. That Ron's supporters were eiterh STRICTLY pro life, or pro choice but driven by other issues more important to them (so he suggests approaching people like you on those issues that drew you) or didn't have it as a major issue/weren't clear on the issue.
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

  12. #10
    ...backing down on abortion abolition would not only be a grave injustice, but would actually injure us in our ground game and at the polls...

    I have every confidence that Ron Paul BELIEVES this, and equal confidence that he is WRONG.

    "Abortion Abolition", fiddle dee dee. Labeling it criminal, labeling it murder, labeling it "abolished", dividing the citizenry, derailing elections, wailing and gnashing teeth...NONE of it will end abortion.
    Last edited by cheapseats; 03-21-2013 at 05:48 AM.

  13. #11
    I hope Rand reads this.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Sayzak View Post
    I disagree, completely. I think at least a third of Ron Paul's support was from people who were pr o-choice (including myself). Furthermore, with the old-hat baby-boomers dying off, abortion is going to become a bipartisan issue within the next 15 years. This is going to be a pro-"choice" nation, for better or for worse, and you'd be better off accepting that. I don't necessarily agree with abortion, but I am pro-choice because I think there aren't enough opportunities in the world for new life to thrive.
    You did not read the article linked in the OP. You should go do that before commenting on it, I think.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    I hope Rand reads this.
    Here is an even better one, imo: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    I have every confidence that Ron Paul BELIEVES this, and equal confidence that he is WRONG.
    Linking to this twice, because I believe it's important: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/

    Cliff Notes: Your confidence is misplaced. You are mistaken, Ron Paul is right. This is not a matter of opinion. You are simply wrong about the way the world (and, more specifically, the electorate) is.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    "Abortion Abolition", fiddle dee dee. Labeling it criminal, labeling it murder, labeling it "abolished", dividing the citizenry, derailing elections, wailing and gnashing teeth...NONE of it will end abortion.
    What's your point? We're talking about winning votes here, not whether a particular policy is wise or not. For the record, I'm pro-life past the point of viability, pro-choice before it, and I think there are good reasons why this is the correct place to draw the line. But my personal beliefs (and yours) are completely irrelevant to the question of what wins elections.
    Last edited by spladle; 03-21-2013 at 09:52 AM.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by spladle View Post
    You are mistaken, Ron Paul is right. This is not a matter of opinion.
    I refer you to the 2012 election results.



    What's your point? We're talking about winning votes here, not whether a particular policy is wise or not.
    I am talking about BOTH.

    Would you be content to "win" votes via UNWISE policies?


    For the record, I'm pro-life past the point of viability, pro-choice before it, and I think there are good reasons why this is the correct place to draw the line.
    Sounds sane to ME.

    But CORRECT is presumptuous. Everyone thinks THEIR line is "correct"...that's why they hold whichever beliefs they hold.


    But my personal beliefs (and yours) are completely irrelevant to the question of what wins elections.
    Depends how many people SHARE our personal beliefs.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    I refer you to the 2012 election results.
    Okay. The election results bear out what I am saying and are in complete conflict with what you are saying. Perhaps you could be a bit more explicit about what you believe the election results show? I'm reasonably confident that you haven't read the articles linked to in this thread. You should go do that before commenting further.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    I am talking about BOTH.
    Oh, okay. Well stop it. This thread is pretty explicitly titled, and it is about whether "abortion restriction is still a WINNING issue." If you would like to discuss whether it is wise from a policy standpoint, please start another thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    Would you be content to "win" votes via UNWISE policies?
    Yes. In fact, that is literally the only way it is possible to win votes, because the vast majority of voters are unwise. Also, I am not sure why you put the word "win" in quotes. Could you please explain that decision?

    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    Sounds sane to ME.

    But CORRECT is presumptuous. Everyone thinks THEIR line is "correct"...that's why they hold whichever beliefs they hold.
    Right, the correctness of a conclusion depends on the priors you hold, and different people hold different priors. I don't think it follows from this that use of the word "correct" is incorrect. =P

    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    Depends how many people SHARE our personal beliefs.
    If the only point you are making here is that popular opinions are popular, then of course I agree. I'm not clear on why you'd feel the need to point that out though.



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  20. #17
    Abortion is a red herring; a losing issue. No one will be happy. It will always be used to demonize, especially the "mean white men" of the GOP. Hillary/Michelle 2016!
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Abortion is a red herring; a losing issue. No one will be happy. It will always be used to demonize, especially the "mean white men" of the GOP. Hillary/Michelle 2016!
    I am going to continue linking to this until people start reading it: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Abortion is a red herring; a losing issue. No one will be happy. It will always be used to demonize, especially the "mean white men" of the GOP.
    More like, RED MEAT.


    ...The conventional explanation for what has happened in the forty years since Roe is known as the backlash argument. It sees the Court as having overreached, by acting ahead of both state legislatures and public opinion, leading to grassroots protest, the birth of the pro-life movement, and, ultimately, a debased form of partisanship. In 2011, the legal scholars Reva Siegel and Linda Greenhouse published an essay in the Yale Law Journal called “Before (and After) Roe.” They argued that the backlash argument gets the story both backward and upside down. Opposition to the legalization of abortion, they claimed, wasn’t bottom-up but top-down, and it wasn’t backlash; it was frontlash. Siegel and Greenhouse demonstrated that turning abortion into a partisan issue had been part of a strategy, crafted by Nixon’s advisers, to reinvent the G.O.P. and get Nixon reëlected—before Roe. “No American woman should be denied access to family planning assistance because of her economic condition,” Nixon said in 1969. Anticipating the opponents he would face in his run for reëlection, Nixon began to rethink his positions on contraception and abortion. “If the President should publicly take his stand against abortion, as offensive to his own moral principles,” Patrick Buchanan advised, in a memo dated March 24, 1971, “we can force Muskie to make the choice between his tens of millions of Catholic supporters and his liberal friends at the New York Times and the Washington Post.” A week later, Nixon issued a statement expressing his “personal belief in the sanctity of human life—including the life of the yet unborn.”

    Beginning in the nineteen-eighties, pro-life activists began steering away from attempts to overturn Roe and toward efforts to weaken it, chiefly by lobbying for new laws, especially in state legislatures, restricting access to abortion. A new record was set in 2011, when ninety-two new abortion-restriction provisions were passed across the country, followed by forty-three in 2012...

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...oe-v-wade.html

    Small government, ROFLMAO. Big Government...REEEALLY big government...lavishing the RIGHT people with paychecks drawn on taxpayers' money.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by spladle View Post
    I am going to continue linking to this until people start reading it: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/

    Just to add to this. Being seen as the party of greedy rich people didn't help either. Especially with minorities but with working class whites as well.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by spladle View Post
    I am going to continue linking to this until people start reading it: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/
    Speculation and hypothesis. Based on that article, running Pat Buchanan is a guaranteed winner.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by eating_nachos View Post
    Just to add to this. Being seen as the party of greedy rich people didn't help either. Especially with minorities but with working class whites as well.
    +1

    Required reading for anyone with an interest in electoral politics, imo: http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/...ical-typology/

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by spladle View Post
    I am going to continue linking to this until people start reading it: http://www.jamesjheaney.com/2012/11/...-enough-votes/
    From the article/theory:

    "...If Trende and I are right about the “missing whites,” then Romney could have won this election — handily — without a single additional Hispanic voter. All he had to do was get the 2004 Bush base to the polls."

    "...It turns out that, even if Romney had matched Bush’s 2004 performance among female voters, Romney still would have lost the popular vote and the election. It would have been closer, but gender itself was not a determinative factor.

    Much more interesting than that is the breakdown by race. When we change the racial composition back to the composition of 2004, but leave all else the same, we find that the growing gender gap is not a result of women leaving the Republican party. It is the result of non-whites in general, and non-white women especially, becoming more prolific and more monolithic liberal voters. This racial demographic change is surfacing in the gender statistics and makes a modest women problem look like a very big one..."
    Therefore, throw women under the bus and dangle the AMNESTY carrot in front of Illegal Immigrants...who will proceed to vote for Democrats & Benefits?

    No one is saying anything new at this point, so I guess "we'll see" whether anti-abortion rhetoric swells or shrinks the 'R' base.
    Last edited by cheapseats; 03-21-2013 at 10:55 AM.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Speculation and hypothesis.
    I prefer the term "data-driven analysis," but rather than quibble over labels I'd ask, "Do you know what those words mean?" If you have a non-anecdotal argument for why abortion restriction is not a winning issue, I'd love to hear it. If I'm wrong, I want to know. Do you feel the same way?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Based on that article, running Pat Buchanan is a guaranteed winner.
    How do you figure? I did a ctrl-f search of the article and couldn't find a single mention of Pat Buchanan.



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by cheapseats View Post
    Therefore, throw women under the bus and pander to Illegal Immigrants?

    No one is saying anything new at this point, so I guess "we'll see" whether anti-abortion rhetoric swells or shrinks the 'R' base.
    Yeah, I just checked your post history and realized I've been wasting my time treating you like a human being. Apologies to the actual people reading this thread who have been fooled by my decision to engage this animal into thinking it is a person. I promise not to make that mistake again.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by spladle View Post
    How do you figure? I did a ctrl-f search of the article and couldn't find a single mention of Pat Buchanan.
    Pat Buchanan is well known for an anti-abortion stance. If that is all it takes to win, he should be a shoe-in.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Pat Buchanan is well known for an anti-abortion stance. If that is all it takes to win, he should be a shoe-in.
    Pat didn't win for the same reason Ron didn't. He's just a little too honest.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Pat Buchanan is well known for an anti-abortion stance. If that is all it takes to win, he should be a shoe-in.
    Whom do you believe has argued that "all it takes to win" is "an anti-abortion stance"?

  33. #29
    Election 2012 Results: Republicans Lost Because of the Ultra Right Wing Agenda:
    http://www.policymic.com/articles/18...ht-wing-agenda

    "... The American Enterprise Institute tallied final demographic results and the conclusions to be drawn are pretty obvious.

    In a nutshell, Republicans committed political suicide by allowing a minority of right wing ideologues to dominate the stage. Their rhetoric completely turned off a huge swath of the nation against the party enabling the president to achieve a significant electoral victory...

    Republicans Learn the Cost of Alienating Women Voters:
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...en-voters.html

    "...A larger-than-usual gender gap, 18 points, is a central factor in returning President Obama to the White House for a second term. The skepticism among women about Mitt Romney dates back to the Republican primaries, when the former governor, eager to court social conservatives, said he supported a “personhood” amendment that would confer full legal rights on a fertilized egg and potentially criminalize some forms of contraception, and that if elected president he would “get rid of” Planned Parenthood.

    Romney’s attack on the venerable Planned Parenthood turned out to be a gold mine for Democrats.

    ...What struck women as a GOP obsession with contraception began during the primaries when Rick Santorum, who is Catholic and the father of seven children, introduced the idea of a state ban on contraceptives. Asked if he would support such a ban, Romney replied that he supported contraception, adding, “It’s working just fine.”

    It was a rare instance when Romney didn’t adopt the most extreme position of his party.

    ...Romney had a much greater numbers and attitudes challenge than the relative handful of disaffected Clinton voters posed for Obama. “There is an element of the Republican Party that is significantly out of the mainstream,” says the GOP strategist, “and they’re loud, and whether they’re talking about abortion or building a wall on our southern border, they don’t sound like someone you want running the country.”

    ...Republicans have lost four of the last six presidential elections, five if you count losing the popular vote in 2000, so there should be plenty of soul searching...

    White Elephants: Are Republicans an Endangered Species?
    http://www.theamericanconservative.c...gered-species/

    "...the party will continue to thrive in many states, where residential polarization and gerrymandering give it a built-in advantage.

    But it’s tough to see how Republicans can remain a national force so long as their their support is limited to a shrinking cohort. On this point, centrist historians and Pat Buchanan agree. David Brooks, ever the optimist, recently suggested the foundation of a “second G.O.P.” based in the coastal cities, as if two parties with limited, mutually hostile constituencies would fare better than one. They shoot elephants, don’t they?

    US election: Tories turned off by 'extreme' Republican party
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...can-party.html

    "...The Tory party is mounting a fence-mending mission to the Republican convention after a senior MP admitted that their American sister-party's "extreme" positions on abortion, health care and religion had alienated many Conservatives..."

    Former New Jersey REPUBLICAN Governor Christine Todd Whitman was on the Daily Rundown this morning:

    "In Washington to attend a green energy event, former New Jersey Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman talked about her party's effort to re-brand itself, and told guest host Chris Cillizza on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown that simply adding more female candidate and surrogates will do little to help the party.

    "It's not about the messaging, it's the message," Whitman said. "You can't just say, 'we've got to say it better.' When you vote against the Violence Against Women Act, that raises some serious concerns among women."

    "When you start imposing as good "conservatives" government in the bedroom, that also turns people off," Whitman said of the party's efforts to legislate women's reproductive rights..."

    http://thecontributor.com/civil-righ...ng-its-message
    Last edited by cheapseats; 03-21-2013 at 11:41 AM.

  34. #30
    cheapseats, do you literally know a single actual human woman who could care less about the vote on the violence against women act, rather just using its name to demonize people? Because I don't. Consultants are paid to sound like they know something, but as far as i am concerned, they don't have their finger on the pulse of any but each other.

    They WANT a result and pretend achieving it is popular.
    "Integrity means having to say things that people don't want to hear & especially to say things that the regime doesn't want to hear.” -Ron Paul

    "Bathtub falls and police officers kill more Americans than terrorism, yet we've been asked to sacrifice our most sacred rights for fear of falling victim to it." -Edward Snowden

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