Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 50

Thread: What if Rand Paul wins the 2013 CPAC straw poll?

  1. #1

    Default What if Rand Paul wins the 2013 CPAC straw poll?

    How do you see things unfolding? Will the media cover it or try to dismiss it?

    I'm willing bet that if Rand wins the media will play it down, but if Rubio wins the media will headline that story for the entire week. I'll be very interested to see what kind of bounce the winner gets and how many media appearances they garner from it.



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #2

    Default

    If he wins, it will be dismissed by the MSM. Even the conservative commentators (aside from Church, Doyle and Beck) will say it was only because of YAL and C4L giving "the Paul people" cheap admission, just as they did when Ron won.
    My 2014 Liberty Picks:
    • Randy Brogdon OK
    • Lee Bright SC
    • Paul Broun GA
    • Chris McDaniel MS
    • Igor Birman CA-7
    • Mia Love UT-4
    • Tom Emmer MN-6
    • Andrew Walter AZ-9

  4. #3

    Default

    Are YAL and C4L offering cheap tickets this year?

  5. #4
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Youngsville, NC
    Posts
    21,231
    Blog Entries
    5

    Default

    Depends, if the victory is sick lopsided that means every kind of conservative present climbed on board. Even the pundits are articulate enough to pull that one out if it goes down that way.
    Monday, December 22, 2014. The newly elected Congressmen and Legislators prepare to get to work as something happens and trillions of overseas dollars begin to repatriate as fast as they can be brought in. Monetary volume within the United States doubles in 40 days. What is Congress to do? Who did you elect to Congress in November?

  6. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by TokenLibertarianGuy View Post
    Are YAL and C4L offering cheap tickets this year?
    I'm not sure if they are sponsoring anything, but tickets are cheaper for young conservatives 24 and younger.

    Are we going sponsor other forum members to attend?

  7. #6

    Default

    I'm not sure it will matter either way. Personally I think we need to get rid of the "tea-party" lable if we're going to even come close to closing the gap between the D's and R's.

  8. #7

    Default

    I don't think it will be a big deal regardless of who wins - unless it's a surprise underdog like Ted Cruz or Christie.

    The one next year will be a bit more important.
    Original supporter of Ron Paul since 2007 and I stand with Rand.

  9. #8

    Default

    It seems like Rand has lost some support with conservatives since he voted to confirm Hagel. That might make it harder for him to win the CPAC straw poll. We'll see.
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    1 John 2:2

    He Himself is the propitiation for our sins; and not for ours only, but also for those of the whole world.

  10. #9

    Default

    It won't be covered if he wins.

  11. #10
    Mr. Republitarian FSP-Rebel's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    A^2
    Posts
    10,247
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    As we've said in past times with Ron: let's win it to stave off an opportunity for the media to go gaga over the likes of Roob or whoever. We might not get mass recognition but we'll get our usual dose of internet notoriety and likely it'll at least make Drudge where no one on the right will be able to not see it. That said, I think Rand will get some right wing press out of this as even Ron got a little. In the overall scheme of things, this isn't a prez year nor is Rand perceived as this outsider status that Ron was dealt so his winning won't be as divisive w/i the GOP imo.

  12. #11

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by FSP-Rebel View Post
    let's win it to stave off an opportunity for the media to go gaga over the likes of Roob or whoever.

    Exactly, it matters even if we get no press coverage at all. They haven't managed to plant Rubio in people's minds as the inevitable one yet.

  13. #12

    Default

    A CPAC win is important for the following reasons:

    -It validates that Ron Paul's grassroots army has fully gotten behind Rand. There are a few very loud people who seem to do whatever they can to bring Rand down, and this would be the ultimate statement that those people are a small minority.

    -It shows that the CPAC crowd is sympathetic to Rand Paul and considers him to be one of them.

    -Even if there were no straw poll happening, liberty oriented groups and individuals need to become familiar faces at events like this. We are not just a part of the conservative movement, we ARE the conservative movement, and CPAC is the biggest event of the year for conservatives.

  14. #13

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    Depends, if the victory is sick lopsided that means every kind of conservative present climbed on board. Even the pundits are articulate enough to pull that one out if it goes down that way.
    Rand can simply remind the MSM that Ron won two years in a row, so if Rubio wins it really doesn't count.

  15. #14

    Default

    The media only cares about straw polls when they want to. Remember all the straw polls Ron Paul won that were irrelevant, but then they jolted Herman Cain to front-runner status simply because he won a straw poll in Florida?

  16. #15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dinosaur View Post
    Exactly, it matters even if we get no press coverage at all. They haven't managed to plant Rubio in people's minds as the inevitable one yet.
    It seems Rubio's bump from giving the national Republican response lasted about 2 weeks. He'll get another week of air in his sails if he wins the CPAC straw poll. I'd love to throw a monkey wrench into that plan.

  17. #16

    Default

    For Rand Paul to win, he almost certainly need to have groups coming in that came expressly to support him. With no "help," I would guess that he still finishes top 4, which would be a solid showing.

    I see Rand Paul being like Jack Nicklaus throughout all of this. He'll hang around the leaderboard but he won't get as much attention as others for a long time because he isn't as flashy. In the end, Rand Paul has the goods to back it up though and will be in the mix.
    Last edited by misean; 03-01-2013 at 07:26 PM.

  18. #17

    Default

    I think this straw poll will be a big determiner of just this question. I know personally many young conservative professionals coming in job hunting who are all solid Rand votes. I wouldn't be surprised if this prediction turns out wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by misean View Post
    For Rand Paul to win, he almost certainly need to have groups coming in that came expressly to support him. With no "help," I would guess that he still finishes top 4, which would be a solid showing.

  19. #18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Rocco View Post
    I think this straw poll will be a big determiner of just this question. I know personally many young conservative professionals coming in job hunting who are all solid Rand votes. I wouldn't be surprised if this prediction turns out wrong.
    You might be right. I still don't think the needle of support has moved far enough in his direction and I'm not sure it would be great if he supernova'd and won. I really don't think it would be good for him to be put in the crosshairs this soon.

  20. #19
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Youngsville, NC
    Posts
    21,231
    Blog Entries
    5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by misean View Post
    You might be right. I still don't think the needle of support has moved far enough in his direction and I'm not sure it would be great if he supernova'd and won. I really don't think it would be good for him to be put in the crosshairs this soon.
    On the other hand, if he is the 'presumptive nominee' for THREE YEARS before the primary, then the 'inevitability' bit is on our side.
    Monday, December 22, 2014. The newly elected Congressmen and Legislators prepare to get to work as something happens and trillions of overseas dollars begin to repatriate as fast as they can be brought in. Monetary volume within the United States doubles in 40 days. What is Congress to do? Who did you elect to Congress in November?

  21. #20

    Default

    It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    1 John 2:2

    He Himself is the propitiation for our sins; and not for ours only, but also for those of the whole world.

  22. #21
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Youngsville, NC
    Posts
    21,231
    Blog Entries
    5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?
    I think he was just positioning capital to block Brennan. we well see when/if that happens, but if he fights Brennan for all he's worth then I am pretty sure he will make much of that back.
    Monday, December 22, 2014. The newly elected Congressmen and Legislators prepare to get to work as something happens and trillions of overseas dollars begin to repatriate as fast as they can be brought in. Monetary volume within the United States doubles in 40 days. What is Congress to do? Who did you elect to Congress in November?

  23. #22

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    I think he was just positioning capital to block Brennan. we well see when/if that happens, but if he fights Brennan for all he's worth then I am pretty sure he will make much of that back.
    He basically said that he'll even vote to confirm Brennan when it actually comes to the final vote, because he believes that the President should get to choose his cabinet. In the interview with Beck he basically said that the only consistent position is to vote against all of President Obama's cabinet nominees or to vote to confirm all of them, so he's likely going to vote to confirm all of them in order to be consistent.
    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    1 John 2:2

    He Himself is the propitiation for our sins; and not for ours only, but also for those of the whole world.

  24. #23

    Default

    I dont like how Ron was painted as Libertarian (not Republican) and now Rand is painted as Tea Party (and less as a Republican)...

    =|

  25. #24

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    On the other hand, if he is the 'presumptive nominee' for THREE YEARS before the primary, then the 'inevitability' bit is on our side.
    There's certain barriers to cultural awareness and cultural acceptance as well. Most people come to their conclusions of a particular candidate through casual feedback from hearing about them in the news, on tv, and word-of-mouth. A substantial portion are not political junkies like we are so they get their information in passing. These people tend to have their guard up and are skeptical of a potential candidates. And who can blame them really? It takes time to break through that wall so they'll actually give your candidate the time of day. It could take years to reach a saturation point where the majority of the population know who your candidate is and what they stand for. It's doubled hard if there's no media push behind you or if some outside force defines you to the electorate before you define yourself. You could see this phenomenon well in Ron Paul's run in 2007-2008. There was initial reluctance during the first campaign, but in time and considerable effort we managed to break through and get people to hear us out.

    It might take a three full years to raise Rand's profile to reach that saturation point where everyday people know of him and openly discuss his ideas around the water cooler. This could be picking up steam of course because Rand has been a relentless voice in the media the past few months. I thought it would take 12-18 months for public sentiment to start to crystallize behind a two-man race between Rand and Rubio. To my surprise it has already started to appear. If this continues to build steam we might very well be on the verge of 'inevitability'. In conclusion, I think the positives of winning CPAC far out weigh any potential negatives. And it would also prevent one of our rivals from the spotlight as someone else said above.

  26. #25

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Traditional Conservative View Post
    It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?
    He was bound to piss these Israel-firsters off eventually. If Rand is seriously trying to thread the needle between the neocons and the liberty movement, it will not be an easy task. The notion that he can be so covert as to never anger the establishment, yet still take principled stands is ridiculous. The hardcore Likudites in the GOP are a small group that’s only getting smaller each day.

  27. #26

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Marky View Post
    He was bound to piss these Israel-firsters off eventually. If Rand is seriously trying to thread the needle between the neocons and the liberty movement, it will not be an easy task. The notion that he can be so covert as to never anger the establishment, yet still take principled stands is ridiculous. The hardcore Likudites in the GOP are a small group that’s only getting smaller each day.
    The true Israel-firsters are a relatively small crowd, though. The Beck/Hannity/Rush audience are mostly America-firsters with sympathy towards Israel. Rand will piss off Beck, but can he get through to Beck's audience in the meantime...and can Beck find enough real ammo to sucessfully trash Rand's reputation?

  28. #27

    Default

    There's been no real organization for getting Rand to win CPAC, so we're kidding ourselves if we think he'll win. I'll be there and I'll vote for him, but I see him coming in second at most.
    Zack Brown
    zack.brown@me.com

  29. #28

    Default

    I'b bullish on the media. I thinkthey're coming around. I don't think they'll dismiss it as easily as they did with his father.

  30. #29
    Mr. Republitarian FSP-Rebel's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    A^2
    Posts
    10,247
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    I'd think YAL would be teaming up with the likes of SFL and maybe even C4L to offer discount rates for the youth to attend. Does anyone know if this is happening or is there a lack of interest?

  31. #30

    Default

    mark my words,feel free to rinse and repeat this. bottom line, if the gop does not nominate Rand Paul in 2016 and have a republican that supports 2/3rd's of the colorado voter base,colorado constitution(medical/personal marijuana). Then that presidential republican candidate can throw the swing state of colorado out the door.

    Doesn't matter if dem is for or against. If the republican opposes individual liberty/ marijuana. They will lose colorado. You can count on it.
    Ron Paul supporter since 2007, I do not stand with rand as is!!!

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast




« Previous Thread | Next Thread »


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •