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Thread: Here is what I see happening in this economy

  1. #31
    I don't think anyone CAN KNOW how things will unfold.THEREFORE it seems reasonable to me to spread your risk.The dollar CAN strengthen rather than collapsing.Some Gold/Silver,some Dollars,some land.All the things themselves rather than a paper derivative.



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by S.Shorland View Post
    I don't think anyone CAN KNOW how things will unfold.THEREFORE it seems reasonable to me to spread your risk.The dollar CAN strengthen rather than collapsing.Some Gold/Silver,some Dollars,some land.All the things themselves rather than a paper derivative.
    The dollar is a paper derivative, but the rest I agree with. Very short term foreign government debt wouldn't be bad either. The dollar strengthening can only happen in the intermediate term, in the end it will collapse like all other top heavy fiat manufactured currencies. Currency emerges in the market, it cannot be made by government only seized and co-opted, and it eventually peters out and dies, or violently implodes when its original traditional value is frittered away completely. Fiat or debt currency value is derived from its exchange value yesterday, and yesterdays value is derived from the day before, back in an infinite regression to the time when it was actually something people valued for other purposes besides its exchange value. (Mengarian/Misessian regression theorem). Undermine peoples confidence that a currency will have roughly the same value tomorrow that it has today and the currency is doomed. A fiat currency is valued by reputation, tradition and trust in government not to destroy it totally. This can go up in smoke very quickly and in a very disorderly manner.



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Some pieces are bigger than others though. 2008 was a big piece. Right now it's smaller pieces as bubbles are furiously reinflated. The next big piece will fall soon enough. It'll just be on their schedule, not yours.
    "They" would like to schedule it, and will try to, but they are not capable of controlling all the variables.

  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    I might argue that the guy back in 1913 had a higher standard of living when you compare stress levels, tax burdens, overall happiness, and the strength of the family unit. Many people would gladly live more simply if they could. Honestly I think technology
    has it's place but it's gotten out of hand. Is anyone here happier than they were 20 years ago? I'm not... especially with what I see coming.

    I prefer air conditioning, modern motor vehicles and not contracting deadly diseases to life in 1913, thanks.

  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Stallheim View Post
    Actually standard of living is EXACTLY what real wages is trying to approximately measure.
    The real wage is an attempt to compare the purchasing power of your wage at different points in time. To do that the wages are measured by the price vector of a specific basket of goods. That's not very suffisticated, though, because it implies that consumer preference didn't change at all. If only the composition of goods within the basket changes it's hard enough to justify the use of this method scientifically. If anything you can only use it as a heuristic tool to estimate.

    But as soon as not only the composition of goods, but also the goods themselves change, it's entirely impossible to compare wages in two different periods. If we take a representative basket of goods from the 19th century and look at today's real prices for those goods, many of them would be higher than they were today. A horse carriage is probably more expensive today than back then, when there were many manufactures. But is this relevant? Everybody substituted cars for carriages, the real price for carriages is irrelevant and the real price for cars was irrelevant back then. You can't compare the too.

  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    I prefer air conditioning, modern motor vehicles and not contracting deadly diseases to life in 1913, thanks.
    Don't forget two upcoming World Wars!

  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Danan View Post
    Don't forget two upcoming World Wars!
    I expect that a resident of Germany with the moniker "King Nothing" would've been an early enrollee on a train to greener pastures.
    "Sorry, fellows, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."

  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Romulus View Post
    I too agree with the crumble effect. The only positive is that there is time to position ourselves for it, vs a crash.
    That could be the positive. Thinking back before the 2008 hysteria happened, I was telling others I knew about what I was finding out, and that change was coming. Most didn't do anything, but some bought some guns and ammo, and people overall were doing some small changes. Today many more people are buying gold and silver and guns and ammo and food to store, and some other things, like reading books on survival. The slow grind however will eventually make people desperate and sell their goods in order to survive if they have to. A crash would cause panic and unrest almost immediately and cause people to go wait a minute, and they would begin to have to think differently. A slow grind sort of insulates those causing the mess, such as the FED, because those still doing alright will continue to keep things rolling, while the slaves simply adjust to it, basically how this society is operating already and has been for years and years.

    Some general but meaningful trends we will see I believe from this slow grind will be an increase in suicides without being reported much either, money circulation continually decreasing, thereby decreasing activity out in public at restaurants and stores leading to very quiet public domains which I already see, a rapid decrease in morals (already obvious but will become intolerable)... Those are just the obvious but if someone really put their time into it I'm sure we could get a whole list going on this subject on what we could expect to see somethings, we might not even think of.

    The age bracket of 18 - 30 has been really interesting to watch though. They are the first major group living within this new degenerating economy. Imagine their kids and how different the expectations will be and advice to live, etc. In reality though, many people aren't having many kids if at all either. This evident with a lady I know who owns a day care, it's mostly immigrants having the kids in her area. Those born here are looking to survive mostly not have kids, so having kids in the future might not even be a consideration - who knows, but its possible, its sort of happening already.

  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by psi2941 View Post
    the only reason i disagree, is looking at other countries that have been in the situation mostly soviet Russia. Yea they do have the crumbling effect and it does until the masses wake up and notices whats going on. Then there is a sudden drop.

    For example oil(gas) people will be ok with gas prices increasing 20% every year for a while until people wake up and notice its not the oil prices are rising its the fact money is loosing value. Once the masses realize money is worthless and refuse to accept fiat money there will be a short collapse, like the soviet union. However things will get better real quick. I would guess you only need 3-6 months of supply of food and ammo.
    I keep trying to think of how the average Joe in this country would realize its his fiat money that is lossing its value and not the goods, but if it happened in the past in other countries, I think that would still be possible for the average Joe to realize. I could see the average Joes asking for raises at work and almost getting violent with stores at first.

    I definitely agree if we could get to a crash, shortly after that the economy would be booming no doubt about it, especially if the government was out of business and operation.

  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    In 2013, $1000 can buy you a laptop and several months of internet service. In 1913, it couldn't do that because the technology wasn't even close to existing. It could buy you, like, a telegraph, or something.

    Who has a higher standard of living? The man with the technology to mentally go anywhere on the face of the Earth (anywhere in the known universe, even), or the man with the equivalent of many, more dollars in his pocket who has to leave his house to use the bathroom and can't call anyone he knows on the magic device we carry around with us that we refer to as cell phones?

    Standard of living is not just real wages.

    Honestly, in consider that real wages were a bit higher in the 1970s.... but also that society was more violent, transportation to vacation destinations was more expensive, food more costly and less available, entertainment further from our fingertips --- Lord almighty, I'm conversing with someone I've never met, and will never even see, instantly. If we wanted, we could both download an episode of The Wire and talk about it in the chat, simultaneously. And then I could drive to a restaurant, listening to satellite radio on the way, and when I arrive I could eat fresh mozzarella that was imported from Italy this morning as an appetizer before an entre of, say, Kobe beef and Alaskan salmon, then drink a microbrew imported from Belgium. An average man is affording things that even a very wealthy couldn't have had several generations ago.


    Life is good. Seriously, life is obscenely good. Don't lose sight of that.
    Haha, hey I like your positive vibe definitely, and in life I lean that way, especially in my pursuits of work. You have to really.

    But I didn't start the thread to make everyone get all negative and such, I'm just really taking a look at what is going on in reality with people today. The most healthy perspective is to probably also include the positive aspects, of how people are adapting and the good that is happening as you are doing in your posts, which I don't disagree with completely.



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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Michigan11 View Post
    Basically all of these big events of gloom and doom aren't going to happen, the gloom and doom is coming from what the people aren't going to do to fight this. We need to perservere and spread the reality of our situation around to those close to us, and get them on our team. How would anyone want to see their closest friends and family eating mud pies in the near future?
    Which is why we all have to stay engaged and not sit back waiting for some collapse. Politically speaking, we have got to march forward with Ron's restore the GOP approach and move more of our liberty-minded people forward while continually spreading that message on the ground. Economics is on our side, let's use it to our advantage in the infowar ground game.

  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Henry Rogue View Post
    A long grind does scare me more than a sudden crash. Maybe the young Generation can see hope in their future. I think older Generations staring retirement in the face and are unprepared, are looking at a stark reality. Some will make the best of it many will not.
    You know, looking at the age group of 18-30, many of them are like the RP people leading the wave of liberty happening right now, thankfully that is the positive. But it's not pretty looking at that age groups adjustments really, many of them are living at home and aren't really sure what the hell is going on in order to find a job. I think watching this group is looking into the future. Let's hope many more push for liberty due to their circumstances. The boomers on the other hand, are the most optimistic group in this worlds history it seems, even in the face of dismall reality haha! No joke that group for the most part does not like where things are headed yet they always have an optimistic view somehow, most likely due to the past. Overall however many in that group aren't going to be retiring, and they all admit it, but they really are the status quo in this country it seems, keeping change from happening just yet, and no I am not blaming our problems on them either, because I have gotten some of them to donate to our causes over and over again.

  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Tod View Post
    The slower the downward grind, the less likely violence as people become accustomed to new lower standards of living.

    There is every reason to believe that the government is preparing for a more rapid decline than preferable for reasons of peace, however, with the militarization of the police, the arming of gov't agents, the stockpiling of weapons, the urban military drills, the desensitizing against shooting previously mostly taboo persons such as the pregnant lady on the target, the calls for gun controls, etc.

    Better to be prepared than not on our end too, and devise ways to opt out to the extent possible to retain independence. That doesn't mean we won't be called upon to defend ourselves, but it is always better to be fighting to maintain independence than to gain it when it has been lost entirely.
    I think the government is getting armed up in order to have a more complete control, but a slow grind will not awake people to hit the streets in mass chaos like a sudden event would.

    Imagine as this slow grind proceeds, with an occasional stumble down a step or two like 08' and 00' and previous points... the younger generation is already mostly living at home still with their parents, unprepared and unable to live independently, preparing their minds even further for authoritarian government. While those lossing jobs or investments begin to move back with their families, have less kids if any kids at all. The whole society is slowly being restructured. One family member falls down, another family member provides positive support "you will eventually find a job, etc..."

  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by FSP-Rebel View Post
    Which is why we all have to stay engaged and not sit back waiting for some collapse. Politically speaking, we have got to march forward with Ron's restore the GOP approach and move more of our liberty-minded people forward while continually spreading that message on the ground. Economics is on our side, let's use it to our advantage in the infowar ground game.
    Excellent Point! It is our path to successfully regaining not only our liberties and freedom but the prosperous economy America was always known for.

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    I prefer air conditioning, modern motor vehicles and not contracting deadly diseases to life in 1913, thanks.
    Most people would. Statist of all kinds like to say things like this. "Back when we had smaller government and less taxes we had slavery, polio, no air condition, etc..."

    This has nothing to do with whether a collapse is coming or how bad it will be. A currency collapse isn't going to care whether you have air conditioner or a laptop. The car was around when the soviet union went belly up.

    The simple fact is that until the debt is clear, the economy is done. And all that debt could have be used by free people to make even more advances in technology. Stablity sets the stage for advances.

    Currency devalutions can happen in a single day. The United States has become morally corrupt and arrogant, that the thought of something like that is the farthest thing from their minds.

  19. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    In 2013, $1000 can buy you a laptop and several months of internet service. In 1913, it couldn't do that because the technology wasn't even close to existing. It could buy you, like, a telegraph, or something.

    Who has a higher standard of living? The man with the technology to mentally go anywhere on the face of the Earth (anywhere in the known universe, even), or the man with the equivalent of many, more dollars in his pocket who has to leave his house to use the bathroom and can't call anyone he knows on the magic device we carry around with us that we refer to as cell phones?

    Standard of living is not just real wages.

    Honestly, in consider that real wages were a bit higher in the 1970s.... but also that society was more violent, transportation to vacation destinations was more expensive, food more costly and less available, entertainment further from our fingertips --- Lord almighty, I'm conversing with someone I've never met, and will never even see, instantly. If we wanted, we could both download an episode of The Wire and talk about it in the chat, simultaneously. And then I could drive to a restaurant, listening to satellite radio on the way, and when I arrive I could eat fresh mozzarella that was imported from Italy this morning as an appetizer before an entre of, say, Kobe beef and Alaskan salmon, then drink a microbrew imported from Belgium. An average man is affording things that even a very wealthy couldn't have had several generations ago.


    Life is good. Seriously, life is obscenely good. Don't lose sight of that.
    People can have a big screen TV, but they can't own a home.

  20. #47
    Just because some are satisfied with their payoffs, to turn their head to the looting, doesn't mean you all need to buy in to it.

    Sure we have some nice things now but what would we of had if we weren't looted to begin with. Some would have been able to retire. Some could have bought into others dreams and no tellings what we could have created here on earth.

    We've been reamed. Not only do we not own what we once owned we've financed our own destruction.

    Our life earnings ripped off.

    Our life savings gone.

    Lassie can't help us now. (Oh sure she was pointing and all excited there for a while trying to tell us something was wrong, but that was years ago.)

    Now I'm just starting to babble.

    Can the drones read lips?

  21. #48
    The internet let me see how small a box I was living in.It also let me (really) know I'm a slave.I think I'm better off knowing I'm a slave.It also brought me economic understanding and that something really bad is about to happen and maybe I should 'struggle' at that time,as there may be an opportunity against the masters.It also got me into religion again.Which is voluntary slavery.



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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Michigan11 View Post
    Haha, hey I like your positive vibe definitely, and in life I lean that way, especially in my pursuits of work. You have to really.

    But I didn't start the thread to make everyone get all negative and such, I'm just really taking a look at what is going on in reality with people today. The most healthy perspective is to probably also include the positive aspects, of how people are adapting and the good that is happening as you are doing in your posts, which I don't disagree with completely.

    In reality, life is exponentially better now than it has ever been for a gigantic swath of the global population, as well as America.

    Even Americans living in poverty now have dishwashers, air conditioning, big TVs, wireless internet, cell phones, FOOD, access to medical care, vaccines that have eradicated diseases that plagued mankind, an ability to travel more cheaply than ever before, safe streets in almost every town and city, no fear of being eaten by wild animals or invaded by a Mongol horde or blitzkrieging Nazis.

    When I said that life was good, I meant it. In reality, all Americans are better off today than they were a century ago and an amazingly massive, overwhelming percentage of people are better off than they were 20 years ago.

  24. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeeder View Post
    Most people would. Statist of all kinds like to say things like this. "Back when we had smaller government and less taxes we had slavery, polio, no air condition, etc..."
    I hate the state in every form and fashion. Were it not for the state stealing wealth from productive people and lavishing it on connecting elites and the war and prison industries, we'd probably have achieved some form of Utopia by now. With that said, in spite of what seems like the State's best efforts, society has advanced to a point where our lives are all more comfortable and safe than they have ever been.

    This has nothing to do with whether a collapse is coming or how bad it will be. A currency collapse isn't going to care whether you have air conditioner or a laptop. The car was around when the soviet union went belly up.
    We are literally nothing remotely like the Soviet Union.

    The simple fact is that until the debt is clear, the economy is done. And all that debt could have be used by free people to make even more advances in technology. Stablity sets the stage for advances.
    Debt is bad. Stability is good. Correct. This does not mean that a total collapse of western society is pending.


    Currency devalutions can happen in a single day. The United States has become morally corrupt and arrogant, that the thought of something like that is the farthest thing from their minds.
    Yes, and hyperinflationists have been saying this about America since 1972.

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by UWDude View Post
    People can have a big screen TV, but they can't own a home.

    Well, home ownership rates are higher than they were 50 years ago. So there's that. People can own homes, and are owning homes. And their homes are bigger now with more amenities.

    The doom and gloom, "life is terrible" crowd is troubling. Things are no where near as good as they should be, and because of that we have to fight for liberty at every turn, but things are STILL better in aggregate. To ignore the benefits of technological advance is to shut out the second brightest light that mankind shines -- the desire for progress is second only to the desire for freedom.
    Last edited by KingNothing; 02-22-2013 at 06:39 AM.

  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    From where I sit, my own standard of living has dropped by 75% in the last 5 years. Everybody I know without exception is materially worse off than they were 4 years ago. Who are these people maintaining their standard of living you are speaking of? Because I've not met them.
    That's a shame. 75-percent is massive. Because of state actions, things aren't anywhere near where they should be. But, at the same time, your unfortunate circumstance is atypical. Luckily most people have slowly chugged along, neither gaining nor losing much over the last four years.

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Tod View Post
    I expect that a resident of Germany with the moniker "King Nothing" would've been an early enrollee on a train to greener pastures.
    And another thing: today, we have a wealth of Metallica music to listen to. What did they have in 1913? Nothing good, I know that much.

    Then it all crashes down
    And you break your crown
    And you point your finger
    But there's no one around
    Just want one thing
    Just to play the king
    But the castle's crumbled
    And you're left with just a name

    Where's your crown, King Nothing?
    Last edited by KingNothing; 02-22-2013 at 06:50 AM.

  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeeder View Post
    Most people would. Statist of all kinds like to say things like this. "Back when we had smaller government and less taxes we had slavery, polio, no air condition, etc..."

    This has nothing to do with whether a collapse is coming or how bad it will be. A currency collapse isn't going to care whether you have air conditioner or a laptop. The car was around when the soviet union went belly up.

    The simple fact is that until the debt is clear, the economy is done. And all that debt could have be used by free people to make even more advances in technology. Stablity sets the stage for advances.

    Currency devalutions can happen in a single day. The United States has become morally corrupt and arrogant, that the thought of something like that is the farthest thing from their minds.
    Well said.

    And to be clear, King Nothing, I don't want to give the impression that all these technological advances aren't wonderful; They are true testaments to American hard work, free market principles and great ingenuity, yet the government has absolutely nothing to do with creating any of this, in fact all of this development is despite the increasing tax grabs, regulations and arbitrary litigiousness.
    Last edited by Stallheim; 02-22-2013 at 07:36 AM.

  29. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    I hate the state in every form and fashion. Were it not for the state stealing wealth from productive people and lavishing it on connecting elites and the war and prison industries, we'd probably have achieved some form of Utopia by now. With that said, in spite of what seems like the State's best efforts, society has advanced to a point where our lives are all more comfortable and safe than they have ever been.
    Well put. I was misreading your positive note as complacency or even support for comfortably soft tyranny; Really sorry about that.

  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    Well, home ownership rates are higher than they were 50 years ago. So there's that. People can own homes, and are owning homes. And their homes are bigger now with more amenities.

    The doom and gloom, "life is terrible" crowd is troubling. Things are no where near as good as they should be, and because of that we have to fight for liberty at every turn, but things are STILL better in aggregate. To ignore the benefits of technological advance is to shut out the second brightest light that mankind shines -- the desire for progress is second only to the desire for freedom.
    Well said: The last sentence is outstanding! thank you for that.



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  32. #57
    In the USA;

    A higher percentage of the population is currently, or has been, incarcerated than ever before.

    A higher percentage of the population is receiving government assistance.

    A higher percentage of the population must have both parents employed just to make ends meet.

    A higher percentage of urban areas resemble third world war zones than ever before.

    More "wars" have been waged in the name of democracy since WW-2 than in all the years prior, including wars on the citizenry.





    But by God, we've got internet and 'puters, battery powered cars and McMansions with amenities.......All hail progress!

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    In the USA;

    A higher percentage of the population is currently, or has been, incarcerated than ever before.

    A higher percentage of the population is receiving government assistance.

    A higher percentage of the population must have both parents employed just to make ends meet.

    A higher percentage of urban areas resemble third world war zones than ever before.

    More "wars" have been waged in the name of democracy since WW-2 than in all the years prior, including wars on the citizenry.


    But by God, we've got internet and 'puters, battery powered cars and McMansions with amenities.......All hail progress!
    And in spite of all that, literally billions of people worldwide have moved out of abject poverty and squalor. Rights globally, and domestically, have increased for minorities even as government has encroached on our privacy, taxed us, and moved -generally- in undesirable directions. Things should be better than they currently are, but things are certainly better than they were.

    You realize that people used to be stricken with Polio and Small Pox, right? That black people were once slaves and women couldn't vote? That Mao and Stalin imprisoned and murdered millions upon millions of people? That a huge landmass in Eurasia was being subjugated by communist tyranny? That we're approaching cures, or at least more humane treatments of, cancer and Alzheimers? That, much as you denigrate creature comforts, our houses are larger and filled with things that make our lives easier, like washing machines, microwaves, dishwashers, air conditioners, wireless routers, laptops, cell phones, HDTVs, refrigerators, heaters, showers and toilets? That these things you disregard are what is offering you the time and ability to post on a message board and cultivate conversations and ideas with someone you've never met, feeding your deep desire to foster the growth of liberty?

    Disregarding the progress that humanity has made just seems... so pessimistic. It's worse than seeing the glass half-empty. It's refusing to acknowledge that there is any water in the glass at all. It's ignoring history and reality and bestowing a totally unjustified sense of nostalgia on a past that was not kind to literally billions of humans. Life was not good. It may have been "simpler" in some senses, but it was much more difficult, much more painful, and much shorter. It afforded billions of people less opportunities to dream and even fewer opportunities to achieve. But yeah, we had a strong dollar! Who cares if one of your kids had polio, another had whooping cough, and the eastern bloc and most of Asia were being oppressed by a hard tyranny? And I'm not linking the devaluation of the dollar to progress we've made - I'd much rather have free markets and a society free of all government/bank manipulation. I'm just saying that you can't only consider the things you dislike about modern society. It is intellectually dishonest and, to me at least, it makes it seem like you're either lying to yourself or totally without perspective.

    Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to close my internet browser and walk down the hall to go to the bathroom which is inside this building and contains running water and excellent sanitary conditions. What hell this modern society is! I'd much rather piss in a bucket outside in the cold and communicate only with people I can see in person!
    Last edited by KingNothing; 02-22-2013 at 08:21 AM.

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    Well, home ownership rates are higher than they were 50 years ago. So there's that. People can own homes, and are owning homes. And their homes are bigger now with more amenities.

    The doom and gloom, "life is terrible" crowd is troubling. Things are no where near as good as they should be, and because of that we have to fight for liberty at every turn, but things are STILL better in aggregate. To ignore the benefits of technological advance is to shut out the second brightest light that mankind shines -- the desire for progress is second only to the desire for freedom.
    FWIW
    Since 1960, the homeownership rate in the United States has remained relatively stable having increased 5.6% since 1960 when 62.1% of American households owned their own home. However, homeowner equity has fallen steadily since World War II and is now less than 50% of the value of homes on average.[4]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeown..._United_States
    We will be known forever by the tracks we leave. - Dakota


    Go Forward With Courage

    When you are in doubt, be still, and wait;
    when doubt no longer exists for you, then go forward with courage.
    So long as mists envelop you, be still;
    be still until the sunlight pours through and dispels the mists
    -- as it surely will.
    Then act with courage.

    Ponca Chief White Eagle

  35. #60
    All this "modern prosperity" is financed rather than owned. All the gadgets and little luxuries, so-called home ownership where the actual ownership of the home is less than previously as moostraks pointed out.......it is built on sand, sand that will wash away once the inability to repay is fully realized.
    "Sorry, fellows, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."

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