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Thread: Palladium is a screaming (paper) short (Jan 25th)

  1. #1

    Lightbulb Palladium is a screaming (paper) short (Jan 25th)


    source of the first chart: http://cotsignale.de/artikel/52-meta...e-20130126.pdf -> p. 5

    The interesting part of the chart is the commercials (red) vs large speculators (green) positioning in paper markets. Speculators are massively long and commercials are massively short. A massive correction is basicly a certainty. I'm opening a paper short tomorrow. Target $690 (50 dma) for starters.

    The 50dma has massively diverged from the 200dma and the spot price has diverged massively from the 50dma. That's a classical indication that a correction is overdue.



    Palladium's long term seasonality is also turning bearish in February:




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  3. #2

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    i own PAL , pallidium has a great story , russia is running out.

    large speculators are right much more the commercials , as the commercials are selling forward their production.

  4. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by ILUVRP View Post
    i own PAL , pallidium has a great story , russia is running out.
    Yes, but that's not my point here. I'm looking for short term gains.

    large speculators are right much more the commercials,
    No, definitely not. You can look into any precious metal market and see that the returns of commercials have been better than those of specs.
    Silver and gold are the most extreme examples, but it also applies to pgms.

    as the commercials are selling forward their production.
    Yes, they are doing that. But they're timing these forward sales in anticipation of falling prices. That's why they're so heavily short at record levels right now. You also have to keep in mind that "commercials" are not only producers, but supply chain managers and even coin dealers, too.
    Last edited by swissaustrian; 01-27-2013 at 01:58 PM.

  5. #4

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    you should short PALL then as it is the pallidium etf , i believe in pallidium much more than gold/silver , i would spread pallidium against gold or silver .

    good luck , it won't be long before pallidium is over $900/oz,

    but then again if i knew anything i would be in the south pacific sucking up my-ties .

  6. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by ILUVRP View Post
    you should short PALL then as it is the pallidium etf , i believe in pallidium much more than gold/silver , i would spread pallidium against gold or silver .

    good luck , it won't be long before pallidium is over $900/oz,

    but then again if i knew anything i would be in the south pacific sucking up my-ties .
    Longterm I don't disagree with your take. Short term a correction is very likely.
    In terms of vehicles to play the short: I'm using over the counter options, i.e. contracts that are individually negotiated with my bank.

  7. #6

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    Should I sell all my belt buckles?
    My 2016 prediction: Hillary Clinton will NOT run for president.

    Rand Paul 2016

  8. #7

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    I bought a 1 oz pamp suisse bar for a little over $300 in 09 I believe
    So much things to say!

    Truth is stranger than fiction.
    - Mark Twain

    BLog

  9. #8

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    Just locked in my short at $740, strike $700, duration June13

  10. #9
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    Still $742 , last I looked, I should have bought some , a very short time ago @ $600.

  11. #10

  12. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Neocon View Post
    I'm guessing OP bought here?
    No, bought in April 09 sold in April 10. Didn't have a position since then.

    ---

    Yesterday's COMEX closing bang was pretty massive, exactly what one would expect given the extreme commercial short positioning in the futures market. At the opening of the overnight Globex session somebody pulled the trigger again. That's classic stop hunting. It always happens when commercials are trying to trigger waterfall declines.

  13. #12

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    head and shoulders formations are one of the strongest chart patterns there is , look at the 2011 h/s , now we are setting up for a hugh reverse h/s , with sept 2011 to the present as the reverse head .

    this is a long term move .

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