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Thread: 2014 -- What's your district? Could a good candidate win there? My district is...

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    Moderatorus Emeritus Cowlesy's Avatar
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    Default 2014 -- What's your district? Could a good candidate win there? My district is...

    NY-12; Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney. There is a 0% chance that a Republican could beat her.

    So I am out.


    Let's list some districts and figure out if we could win them.
    "Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister




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    Phil Gingrey. Not half bad but also not going anywhere.

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    My idea with this thread is to start thinking about resource optimization; given our limited resources, where can we focus, get coordinated early, and be beyond ready when the time comes.

    It creeps up on us.
    "Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister


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    Where are there going to be empty seats?
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    Quote Originally Posted by sailingaway View Post
    Where are there going to be empty seats?
    I don't know. What's your district? Maybe we can find out.
    "Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister


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    I'm afraid my district isn't a possibility, although I'd be happy to support someone who wanted to try. It only changed hands Dem to Dem in the redistricting because there were two incumbants running against eachother. Berman had a 17% approval rating and won resoundingly every time, before that.
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    TX-3
    No chance. Sam Johnson will have this seat for as long as he wants it.

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    Can't talk about it yet
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    I'm in PA-15... I don't think Dent is leaving anytime soon. I would love to see Jake Towne run again, though.
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    I'm no help here:

    Mike Rogers might run for Levin's seat, which would free up Michigan 8. We have a state Senator here, Joe Hune, that is at least liberty friendly. I would hope he might step up and run Rogers' seat. Call me a sell out, because he isn't 100% Ron Paul, but I would support him.

    In turn, I think that Cindy Denby would move up to the State Senate, and then possibly my friend Phillip, currently the mayor of Howell, might step into her seat. He hasn't said anything, but he is a Ron Paul guy through and through.

    Never know, he might decide to run for the State Senate instead. Or he might not run for anything ever again - hard to tell. But I just don't see him running for the House seat against Hune.
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    Depends on if Hal Rodgers retires in KY-5. If so, I really hope Rand or Massie know someone they could both endorse, the demographics are pretty much the same as Massie's district and it would be an easy pick-up for a lifetime seat.

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    I appreciate everyone's replies. Hope to see more from our various members.
    "Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister


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    IA-2 Dave Loebsack(D) elected in 2006 edged out long time moderate Republican incumbent Jim Leach with 51%. In his last 3 elections he received 57%, 51%(the constitution party and libertarian party candidates got 3% of the vote), and most recently 55.5%. He is not unbeatable although the district leans Democratic.

    In the 2010 election where he garnered 51% he ran against the same candidate from 2008. The candidate increased her name recognition to make a close race. Governor Branstad also came out of retirement to run in 2010 (and win IA-2) for governor again which helped Republican candidates across the state. Branstad will most likely be running again in 2014 which increases the chances of any REP candidate doing better than expected.

    Currently, no one has stepped forward to run against Loebsack, Republican or otherwise.
    Last edited by Uriah; 01-23-2013 at 10:48 AM.

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    I wasn't going to post but here goes.

    Calvert's district.

    There is almost no one with the balls to challenge him, he's got total control of the local GOP. Stone might theoretically challenge him. Fiscally conservative.
    List of Liberty-minded candidates for Congress in 2014
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    Mr. Republitarian FSP-Rebel's Avatar
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    I'm in Dingle's district and it's highly democratic as one might imagine. I'll be helping Kerry stave off a primary by the local party shitheads presuming they're still in charge down the line.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    Can't talk about it yet
    ??

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    AL-1

    I wouldn't think there are many places where a first time candidate would have a good shot at a house seat against an incumbent. What kind of costs would be associated with even having a chance? How do you determine what kind of winning probability you have?
    Last edited by jtap; 01-23-2013 at 01:21 PM.

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    The 2nd District in KY. It's probably not winnable against the incumbent (Guthrie), but in 2015 he might run for governor, opening the seat if he wins. A million or two would probably be enough to win, and we have some counties where we are very strong in a primary. We need to have someone ready when the opportunity arises. There are some possibilities which we can discuss them if/when it becomes relevant.
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    I agree about Calvert. He is worthless and vulnerable to the right challenger. My good friend Eric Linder just got elected to the State Assembly from that area. He would be a great candidate should he chose to try and move up.

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    AZ-1, Ann Kirkpatrick won the seat in 2008 lost in 2010 and won the seat back in 2012. It's +5 GOP and the Libertarian candidate has had over 6% in the past 2 elections.

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    Quote Originally Posted by QWDC View Post
    Depends on if Hal Rodgers retires in KY-5. If so, I really hope Rand or Massie know someone they could both endorse, the demographics are pretty much the same as Massie's district and it would be an easy pick-up for a lifetime seat.
    Does Chris Hightower live in that district?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FSP-Rebel View Post
    I'm in Dingle's district and it's highly democratic as one might imagine. I'll be helping Kerry stave off a primary by the local party shitheads presuming they're still in charge down the line.
    That seat has been held by a John Dingle since 1933. Dingle Jr has held the seat since 1955 and his dad held it before him.

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    PA-13, Allyson Schwartz (d) is serving her 5th term. She got 69% of the vote in 2012. She's beatable but only by an extremely well funded seasoned professional politician. I don't see any chance for one of our guys making a play here. She will likely hold the seat until it is gerrymandered back to Republicans.
    Last edited by brandon; 01-24-2013 at 06:25 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Confederate View Post
    Does Chris Hightower live in that district?
    He lives in KY-1
    List of Liberty-minded candidates for Congress in 2014
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    OH DIST 8
    BONNER LAND
    RAN UNOPPOSED & RECEIVED 95% OF VOTE

    has recently been revealing his self as a collaborator, he is vulnerable but well supported.
    definitely in need of REPLACEMENT by a true Liberty candidate that knows, supports, & understands the declaration, constitution, & bill 'o rights and will use that understanding to defend the individual

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    If I had a telecommuting job I would seriously contemplate moving to a winnable area if I had backing.

    What constitutes being a "resident"? Is it based on the time you have lived there?

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    Mr. Republitarian FSP-Rebel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Confederate View Post
    That seat has been held by a John Dingle since 1933. Dingle Jr has held the seat since 1955 and his dad held it before him.
    Except that now, the redistricting made the district even more entrenched to democrats. Granted, less dems voted in 2010 but he got 121k votes then and 216k in 2012 which shows how much the redistricting benefitted him. Got 61% of the votes in 2010 and 68% recently, the republican got 29% (+3%LP) in 2012 compared to 35% (+2%LP/CP) in 2010.

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    IL-10

    Represented by Bob Dold (R) until he was beaten and Brad Schneider (D) moved in. District is very wealthy in the south and blue collar in the north. It is a swing district, but there are very few liberty-minded politicians.

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    TX-8

    Kevin Brady (R) is pretty firmly ensconced but should he ever step down, this would be a great opportunity. Wikipedia says the Cook partisan voting index is R+26. Brady has also been saying a lot of nice things about Ron Paul all of the sudden which I take to mean there are a substantial number of us in this district.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pisces View Post
    TX-8

    Kevin Brady (R) is pretty firmly ensconced but should he ever step down, this would be a great opportunity. Wikipedia says the Cook partisan voting index is R+26. Brady has also been saying a lot of nice things about Ron Paul all of the sudden which I take to mean there are a substantial number of us in this district.
    Perhaps he is playing defense. Trying to prevent a primary challenger.

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