Depends on if Hal Rodgers retires in KY-5. If so, I really hope Rand or Massie know someone they could both endorse, the demographics are pretty much the same as Massie's district and it would be an easy pick-up for a lifetime seat.
Depends on if Hal Rodgers retires in KY-5. If so, I really hope Rand or Massie know someone they could both endorse, the demographics are pretty much the same as Massie's district and it would be an easy pick-up for a lifetime seat.
I appreciate everyone's replies. Hope to see more from our various members.
"Your mother's dead, before long I'll be dead, and you...and your brother and your sister and all of her children, all of us dead, all of us..rotting in the ground. It's the family name that lives on. It's all that lives on. Not your personal glory, not your honor, but family." - Tywin Lannister
IA-2 Dave Loebsack(D) elected in 2006 edged out long time moderate Republican incumbent Jim Leach with 51%. In his last 3 elections he received 57%, 51%(the constitution party and libertarian party candidates got 3% of the vote), and most recently 55.5%. He is not unbeatable although the district leans Democratic.
In the 2010 election where he garnered 51% he ran against the same candidate from 2008. The candidate increased her name recognition to make a close race. Governor Branstad also came out of retirement to run in 2010 (and win IA-2) for governor again which helped Republican candidates across the state. Branstad will most likely be running again in 2014 which increases the chances of any REP candidate doing better than expected.
Currently, no one has stepped forward to run against Loebsack, Republican or otherwise.
Last edited by Uriah; 01-23-2013 at 10:48 AM.
I wasn't going to post but here goes.
Calvert's district.
There is almost no one with the balls to challenge him, he's got total control of the local GOP. Stone might theoretically challenge him. Fiscally conservative.
List of Liberty-minded candidates for Congress in 2013-2014
Mark Sanford (R-SC-1), Dr. Greg Brannon (R-NC), Gurley Martin (R-KY). Paul Broun (R-GA) Nancy Mace (R-SC), Miller (R-AK)
Draft 2014: Baldwin (MT-Sen),Forsythe (NH-Sen), Mansoor (CA-Rep)
Party: Libertarian (since registration) / Religion: none (Ignostic, traditional Atheist, Anti-Theist)
I'm in Dingle's district and it's highly democratic as one might imagine. I'll be helping Kerry stave off a primary by the local party shitheads presuming they're still in charge down the line.
??Originally Posted by Matt Collins
Can't talk about it yet
AL-1
I wouldn't think there are many places where a first time candidate would have a good shot at a house seat against an incumbent. What kind of costs would be associated with even having a chance? How do you determine what kind of winning probability you have?
Last edited by jtap; 01-23-2013 at 01:21 PM.
The 2nd District in KY. It's probably not winnable against the incumbent (Guthrie), but in 2015 he might run for governor, opening the seat if he wins. A million or two would probably be enough to win, and we have some counties where we are very strong in a primary. We need to have someone ready when the opportunity arises. There are some possibilities which we can discuss them if/when it becomes relevant.
I agree about Calvert. He is worthless and vulnerable to the right challenger. My good friend Eric Linder just got elected to the State Assembly from that area. He would be a great candidate should he chose to try and move up.
AZ-1, Ann Kirkpatrick won the seat in 2008 lost in 2010 and won the seat back in 2012. It's +5 GOP and the Libertarian candidate has had over 6% in the past 2 elections.
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