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Thread: Housing Starts Rise 37% YoY Crushing Expectations

  1. #1

    Default Housing Starts Rise 37% YoY Crushing Expectations

    Starts rose 24.7% in the Midwest, 21.4% in the Northeast, 18.7% in the West and 3.8% in the South. By structure size, starts for single-family homes rose 8.1%, and increased 20.3% in buildings with at least two units.

    While starts in December were up 37% from a year earlier, rates remain far below a bubble peak of almost 2.3 million in 2006.
    http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013...es-annual-rate

    How misguided can housing bears be?



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  3. #2

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    history repeats and the fed even admitted they were intending to reinflate the housing market.
    i guess some people never learn. Inflation doesn't effect prices evenly, money flows to different areas in different amounts.
    want to know where all the new credit is going?

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  4. #3

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    One of these days, all the Fed money sitting in bank reserves and invested by banks in equities is going to come pouring into the economy. You know what it will look like in the initial stages before it drives general price levels through the roof? ^this
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    Are these new builds of the atrocious quality seen in many of the new builds between 2004-2009?
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

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    Well I'm in Florida, and am not seeing much if any construction in my areas of travels. The midwest numbers seems surprising, where are these going on at I wonder. If these housing starts are increasing, normally you and I would get a general sense of it first hand, by sight or heresay locally, wherever we live such as in the past. Today I see all these numbers and just wonder lol

  7. #6

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    Jordan - go buy housing... we'll pick it up for a 30% discount later. They want everyone to believe it's a great time to buy and many are falling for their trap hook, line and sinker.

  8. #7

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    I agree very much with Kyle Bass that US housing as a general PRICE POINT has stabilized and will go up from here in the long term. US RE is a bargain and value play INTERNATIONALLY.

    This thread, however, is not a play on current price point but a indication of current building which indicates the current demand for long term demand (if only only by the current owner).

    A lot of new starts signals long term valuations are favorable.

    Any debts incurred on these mortgages are valued in USD and the value of the USD is bleak. Remember, the CRASH is home prices has ALREADY occured. The sudden and massive revaluation of the asset price (in this case residential RE) has occured already. Housing has crashed. The CRASH is DONE (in housing).

    The next crash is a larger event. It is a debt/currency crash.

    In this next crash, which is more of a fluid and ongoing event...real assets will do just fine.

    US RE has already crashed and is PRIME in relation to **MOST** of the world.

    The largest and most destructive swing/crash in price is DONE.

    Hi, I'm Canadian and on the international market, I am BULLISH on well chosen US real estate.

    I'm more bullish on gold/silver - but US RE is a gem.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    Jordan - go buy housing... we'll pick it up for a 30% discount later. They want everyone to believe it's a great time to buy and many are falling for their trap hook, line and sinker.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  9. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013...es-annual-rate

    How misguided can housing bears be?
    I keep trying to tell you as someone who works in housing that almost all of this is being driven by the HUD!

    Without the HUD housing would be in the toliet.
    Without the Gov't funding the HUD it wouldn't exist.
    Without perpetual printing and debt that destroys your currency the Gov't couldn't fund the HUD.

    What part of this is hard to get?

    This entire economy is built a top a failing currency.


    But please... march back into this market and prove us all wrong. I'll keep stacking gold and silver and let's see who wins out...
    It's just an opinion... man...

  10. #9

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    couldn't disagree more - here's why: the market has never really crashed because it has been supported by law changes, accounting trickery and free money. household expenses are going up, not down. a 1/2% rise in interest rates cuts about $4500 off how much someone can borrow on an average house loan. there are millions of homes being held off the market artificially. boomers are downsizing. just to name a few. go buy real estate if you have money and a job ... only problem is most people don't. in general -- it's downhill for years regardless of what the stats and Bass say.
    Last edited by cbc58; 01-18-2013 at 08:16 PM.

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    I was visiting my parent's in a very rural area of Virginia recently and noticed a ton of new logging projects going on in the area. I figured that was a pretty good indication housing starts were picking up.
    Last edited by enoch150; 01-18-2013 at 08:31 PM.

  12. #11

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    I have noticed people starting to act crazy about Real Estate in AZ again. My plan right now is to get into a rental and try to sell my underwater property for what I owe while the fever going. It seems like some on RPF and Bass have different views. My question is if these views are only for the short term? Am I way off base that I feel there is another RE bubble growing?

  13. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrock View Post
    I have noticed people starting to act crazy about Real Estate in AZ again. My plan right now is to get into a rental and try to sell my underwater property for what I owe while the fever going. It seems like some on RPF and Bass have different views. My question is if these views are only for the short term? Am I way off base that I feel there is another RE bubble growing?
    I think it's a return to rationality. Every month renters see their rising rental bills and compare them to the monthly cash flow required to finance a home. Buying a home at current prices is much cheaper and buyers can build equity. Naturally, people are coming back in the market to buy. There's nothing bubblicious about it; buying is a much better proposition than the alternative.

  14. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    Jordan - go buy housing... we'll pick it up for a 30% discount later. They want everyone to believe it's a great time to buy and many are falling for their trap hook, line and sinker.
    No way you'll get it cheaper than you can right now. That's pure delusion and time will confirm that.

  15. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    Jordan - go buy housing... we'll pick it up for a 30% discount later. They want everyone to believe it's a great time to buy and many are falling for their trap hook, line and sinker.
    No way you'll get it cheaper than you can right now. That's pure delusion and time will confirm that.

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    Contributing Member Henry Rogue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    I think it's a return to rationality. Every month renters see their rising rental bills and compare them to the monthly cash flow required to finance a home. Buying a home at current prices is much cheaper and buyers can build equity. Naturally, people are coming back in the market to buy. There's nothing bubblicious about it; buying is a much better proposition than the alternative.
    Return to rationality? What do you mean by that, are you saying people were being irrational when they were being foreclosed on? Come on Jordan, the crash wasn't caused by "The Animal Spirits".
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  17. #16

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    Well, as long as you have are purchasing something with clear title right?

    And of course the mortgage is going to be held at the originating place and not shipped off before the ink is dry...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    I think it's a return to rationality. Every month renters see their rising rental bills and compare them to the monthly cash flow required to finance a home. Buying a home at current prices is much cheaper and buyers can build equity. Naturally, people are coming back in the market to buy. There's nothing bubblicious about it; buying is a much better proposition than the alternative.
    In my area rent for the same house next store is $300 less per month.

    Do you at least acknowledge that once interest rates go up, the prices of homes will decline?

  19. #18

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    No way you'll get it cheaper than you can right now. That's pure delusion and time will confirm that.
    Put your money where your mouth is. Go buy a house - not invest in a flipping company - actually buy something yourself. I was selling houses in the 80's and this time reminds me of then.... same old - "never a better time to buy" - then rates went up to 15% and prices got pummeled. Worse this time because taxes and energy costs are at least double what they were then. Pull the punchbowl of free/cheap money and there is going to be one hell of hangover.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    Jordan - go buy housing... we'll pick it up for a 30% discount later. They want everyone to believe it's a great time to buy and many are falling for their trap hook, line and sinker.
    I had a friend suggest I do that with my property. It is still not down to what I paid for it originally (1999). Meanwhile I have it all paid off now. If I had listened to him I would either be a renter still or would have purchased it at a higher price and owed more money and faced higher property taxes today.

    Let's say you are paying $1000 a month in rent today and decide to wait two years for prices to come down more. That is $24,000 more you have paid into rent and gotten nothing for instead of using that to pay down the principle on a place today. And that assumes that prices are the same or lower in the future- if they continue to rise (as they are in most markets now) you will need more money due to higher prices of homes. As low as interest rates are today it not likely the borrowing costs will be any cheaper (and could very well be higher) and you will be two more years away from having it paid off. Those two more years cost you on the other end as well- two more years of mortgage payments and interest instead of being mortgage free.

    In my opinion, the best time to buy a house is anytime you can afford it. You cannot predict what prices will do in the future.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 01-20-2013 at 12:54 PM.
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    Why such disparities between regions? I live in the 3% south and there's definitely few starts (or sales, really) going on here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michigan11 View Post
    Well I'm in Florida, and am not seeing much if any construction in my areas of travels. The midwest numbers seems surprising, where are these going on at I wonder. If these housing starts are increasing, normally you and I would get a general sense of it first hand, by sight or heresay locally, wherever we live such as in the past. Today I see all these numbers and just wonder lol
    Same. No construction around me, but houses are starting to sell which is good.
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    Contributing Member Henry Rogue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    In my opinion, the best time to buy a house is anytime you can afford it. You cannot predict what prices will do in the future.
    I think this is sound advice, buy a house when you can afford it and I might add if you need it and or want it. I don't look at a house as an investment any more than a car is an investment. I don't think i will ever get out of my house what I put into it (principal plus interest, taxes and maintenance), but performs the purpose that I had intended for it. I know some people will make a profit from real estate investments, but certainly not all. Real estate isn't the sure thing that the keynesians will have you believe, 2008 proved that, but that doesn't mean you should never buy.
    Last edited by Henry Rogue; 01-20-2013 at 08:33 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by enoch150 View Post
    I was visiting my parent's in a very rural area of Virginia recently and noticed a ton of new logging projects going on in the area. I figured that was a pretty good indication housing starts were picking up.
    Or people selling timber to pay the taxes ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOneButPaul View Post
    I keep trying to tell you as someone who works in housing that almost all of this is being driven by the HUD!

    Without the HUD housing would be in the toliet.
    Without the Gov't funding the HUD it wouldn't exist.
    Without perpetual printing and debt that destroys your currency the Gov't couldn't fund the HUD.

    What part of this is hard to get?

    This entire economy is built a top a failing currency.


    But please... march back into this market and prove us all wrong. I'll keep stacking gold and silver and let's see who wins out...
    HUD math is pretty much the math I have seen....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry Rogue View Post
    I think this is sound advice, buy a house when you can afford it and I might add if you need it and or want it. I don't look at a house as an investment any more than a car is an investment. I don't think i will ever get out of my house what I put into it (principal plus interest, taxes and maintenance), but performs the purpose that I had intended for it. I know some people will make a profit from real estate investments, but certainly not all. Real estate isn't the sure thing that the keynesians will have you believe, 2008 proved that, but that doesn't mean you should never buy.
    I agree with Henry & Zip , as long as we are talking about a property you plan to reside at, basically , forever .Not "investment " property .

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoOneButPaul View Post
    I keep trying to tell you as someone who works in housing that almost all of this is being driven by the HUD!

    Without the HUD housing would be in the toliet.
    Without the Gov't funding the HUD it wouldn't exist.
    Without perpetual printing and debt that destroys your currency the Gov't couldn't fund the HUD.

    What part of this is hard to get?

    This entire economy is built a top a failing currency.


    But please... march back into this market and prove us all wrong. I'll keep stacking gold and silver and let's see who wins out...
    Silver, $31.91 , Gold, $1689.30. Yeah, I will have a beer now

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    Any of young folks, I offer this, make sure you have a plan in place to keep up your payments if you lose a job that will be difficult to replace .

  29. #28

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    This is where people like myself and Kyle Bass diverge from you;

    This interest rate rise you speak of does not bankrupt households first. It bankrupts the GOVERNMENT and TBTF banks FIRST.

    The Bernank will print money and buy bonds. He is a student of the Great Depression and is and will CONTINUE to mimmick the mistakes of the Great Depression in OPPOSING MIRROR IMAGE FASION.

    Interest rates going up will occur at some point, BUT NOT UNTIL A NEW CURRENCY/MONETARY ORDER IS ESTABLISHED.

    To openly state that RE prices have not crashed yet is irresponsible. How many DRAMATICALLY underwater mortgages are there in the USA? Please re-evaluate your position.

    I've stated this before. RE will go down in value in relation to gold/silver/wheat/rice etc...but in terms of it's DOLLAR valuation, it has seen the worst of it's mess already occur.

    I am cautiously bullish on American Real estate. Not jumping for joy for the opportunity...but if you do things right, there is ample opportunity to build yourself a nice nest.

    Speculative gains a la 2001-2006 WILL NOT OCCUR.

    A massive crash that rips your face off a la 2009 WILL NOT OCCUR.

    Put a down payment, pick a nice place to live, fix the rate for as long as you can and there are very few places (IF ANY) in the world I'd rather buy a home than in America.

    Quote Originally Posted by cbc58 View Post
    Put your money where your mouth is. Go buy a house - not invest in a flipping company - actually buy something yourself. I was selling houses in the 80's and this time reminds me of then.... same old - "never a better time to buy" - then rates went up to 15% and prices got pummeled. Worse this time because taxes and energy costs are at least double what they were then. Pull the punchbowl of free/cheap money and there is going to be one hell of hangover.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  30. #29

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    yes. yes and yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I agree with Henry & Zip , as long as we are talking about a property you plan to reside at, basically , forever .Not "investment " property .
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  31. #30

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    This interest rate rise you speak of does not bankrupt households first. It bankrupts the GOVERNMENT and TBTF banks FIRST.
    You are woefully misinformed. Rising interest rates REDUCE buying power and borrowing power of EVERYONE. The GOVT raises taxes to cover their increased costs. The GOVT and BANKS own millions upon millions of mortgages on homes with negative equity. Big mother air pocket under everything. Not every market is the same but it ain't over yet.... sorry.

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