Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016
Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016
Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016
How can we profit from this? CDS seem to be the most profitable, but those generally aren't available to us. Anyone know much about iTraxx, or any other way we can get in on the action?
Shorting the yen while generally a good idea relies too much on timing I think. Lot of risk if you go in too soon. I also think the returns would be bigger with a CDS
The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.
I haven't heard of this guy before. Is he a libertarian?
Also, +rep to the first person who can post me an amusing picture of an adult diaper fashion show
Well, I'm not really sure what would be considered "amusing" in this context ... but I'll give it a shot:Originally Posted by emazur
Frederic Bastiat
When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law. - The Law Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Government
He's telling the truth but at the same time.... Japan is in the "too big to fail" group.
Can isolate Greece by spending 10 years building a firewall around it.
But Japan? no.
The rest of the world might as well start the Japanese bailout right now. That would be almost as big as letting the entire Eurozone fail all at one time.
Last edited by Agorism; 01-04-2013 at 07:44 PM.
It's worse than the Eurozone and certainly much worse than Greece.
The Eurozone's demographic nightmare is decades out and their financial crisis issues remain to be seen. If you support Austrian economics then cutting spending should resolve a debt issue...
As mentioned in the video, Japan is the most Xenophobic nation -and- their people don't reproduce. So their demographic nightmare is right now and you can't change that.
Europe's average age: 39.9 (source: http://en.worldstat.info/Europe/List...tal_median_age)
USA's average age: 37.2 (source: http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/b...c2010br-03.pdf)
Japan's average age: 44.6 (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._by_median_age)
If that number holds true, the USA would be where Japan is in 20 to 30 years. Europe getting there a little sooner. Both examples assume nothing changes... no wars, no baby booms, etc.
What concerns me most is that Ben Bernanke is following the Japan road map. Japan is 20 years into it and is starting to implode. Bernanke started down the road in 2008...
I believe buying puts on the FXJ is the best way for an average joe, but you can't buy them 4 years out. I think Jan 2014 or 15 is the farthest you can go.
To those who view an imminent collapse of the US Bond market - take note.
One of the smartest and well spoken humans on this planet doesn't even view Japans bond market collapse as imminent. 2016.
Japan is, structurally, a catastrophe when compared to the US and it's structural issues. The US may be in rough shape but it is in WAY better shape than Japan.
I saw an interview with Kyle Bass (from Oct 2012) stating that he thought the major cracks in the Japanese bond market would surface in 2013 - but COLLAPSE may not occur until 2016. I'm inclined to agree.
Japan/UK/USA - these are HUGE countries, effectively, superpowers...these sort of things take a lot of time to ferment.
Japan is FIRST in the collapse.
When I say collapse...I do not mean just the collapse of an aspect of it's credit markets...I mean the entire way that it is structured as an economy.
Japan will go down BEFORE the US.
Relative to the other sinking ships, the US (it's dollar and bond markets) are likely to sink the LEAST quickly.
"Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park
Saved to watch for later when I have time.
"Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness"
great video. + rep. Im gonna look up more from this guy.
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