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Thread: Predictions for December 31 2013

  1. #61

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    Prediction: Obama will be given even more power, as Congress continues to willingly relinquish its effectiveness.
    More amendments will be added to the Patriot Act; NDAA; and Obamacare, that will tax us more, and take more of our freedoms.
    Federal Reserve will have issued QE6 or 7.
    Americans will continue to accept the slow boil.
    Possible false flag, or natural disaster, subsequent martial law in various areas of the nation.
    Diversity finds unity in the message of freedom.

    Dilige et quod vis fac. ~ Saint Augustine

    Quote Originally Posted by HOLLYWOOD View Post
    If anything, this situation has proved the government is nothing but a dictatorship backed by deadly force... no different than the dictatorships in the banana republics, just more polished and cleverly propagandized.



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  3. #62

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Let's make some one year predictions about where the economy will be by December 31, 2013 - roughly one year from today.

    I firmly believe that:

    1) Unemployment rates will fall just below 7% from 7.7% as the economy picks back up.

    2) New car sales will continue to build to more than 16 million cars per year, up from a recent record high of 15 million cars.

    3) Stocks will end the year only slightly higher in 2013 than in 2012. Less than 10% returns are likely. Acquisitions will drive small cap stocks and we'll see a return of leveraged buy outs as cheap money and an improving economy encourage the obvious investments that need to be made by corporate executives.

    4) Home sales will continue to rise as people go back to work, work on their balance sheets, repay debt, and realize that renting is a terrible proposition at the current price. Home sales will cross and sustain 5 million units per year.

    5) Housing starts will reach and sustain a 900,000 annual rate, perhaps even 1 million annual starts per year, up from roughly 800k at present.

    6) Hyperinflation will not happen.
    Mid year update:

    1) Missing on unemployment. Employment is up, but people are returning to the workforce.
    2) Damn near hit this one half-way through as SAAR rises to 15.89. 16M cars is within reach.
    3) Stocks are up big time, baby! M&A is great; DELL is the biggest buyout in YEARS.
    4) Home sales SAAR crossed 5 million in June, up 15% year over year.
    5) Housing starts above 800k after crossing 900k in May.
    6) Duh.

    So, it looks like I'm on track to be right on 5 out of 6.

    Cubical, the only person to actually make predictions out of the dissenters, is right on 2/5. Stocks reached all time highs, and oil is averaging $100 a barrel. Props to him for playing the game, not just criticizing the opinions of others.

    Just a few months left to see how well RPF can truly predict the future.

  4. #63
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    Real Unemployment is far higher then the BLS numbers. Where are you getting the "People are turning to the workforce" bit?

    Stocks are up because of QE3 and the Fed Policies. Same with housing. Both are inflated as Bernanke is blowing a new bubble, further, neither should be looked at as proper indicators for the condition of the economy as a whole. They are both disconnected from the core economic fundamentals.

    Hyperinflation will happen its not a matter of if but when.

  5. #64
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    WAGing it but, the frog in the pot keeps inching up. A small series of expansions and contractions continues to leave the picture cloudy, some low grade inflationary pressure, some increase in unemployment YoY, people will still be saying 'were just fine' while consumers are feeling harder and harder pinched. Stock market still boosting on QE3 will continue higher, inflating the bubble. Government regulations will force people to spend money they otherwise wouldn't, improving construction and auto sectors via distortion, and we will basically be sitting in the same place we are now, just under a lot more pressure one year from today.
    still on course.

  6. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Let's make some one year predictions about where the economy will be by December 31, 2013 - roughly one year from today.

    I firmly believe that:

    1) Unemployment rates will fall just below 7% from 7.7% as the economy picks back up.

    2) New car sales will continue to build to more than 16 million cars per year, up from a recent record high of 15 million cars.

    3) Stocks will end the year only slightly higher in 2013 than in 2012. Less than 10% returns are likely. Acquisitions will drive small cap stocks and we'll see a return of leveraged buy outs as cheap money and an improving economy encourage the obvious investments that need to be made by corporate executives.

    4) Home sales will continue to rise as people go back to work, work on their balance sheets, repay debt, and realize that renting is a terrible proposition at the current price. Home sales will cross and sustain 5 million units per year.

    5) Housing starts will reach and sustain a 900,000 annual rate, perhaps even 1 million annual starts per year, up from roughly 800k at present.

    6) Hyperinflation will not happen.
    Personally, I myself don't expect any real trouble till around 2015 when the currency wars will begin to heat up with B.R.I.C.S.
    However what was interesting was that Bernenke had to backtrack his predictions on when Q.E. will end as drastically effected treasury yields.
    For the Republic! For the Cause!
    The Truth About Central Banking and Business Cycles
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaxIPPMR3fI#t=186

  7. #66
    Member KrokHead's Avatar
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    I won't consider the economy to be 'recovered' until I can safely quit a job like mine and expect to get another one at the same salary I make. I know I'm stuck because it's what I'm doing or flipping burgers.
    "What is mind, don't matter. What is matter, never mind."
    - H. J. Simpson

  8. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by cubical View Post
    I will shoot

    The unemployment number will be 8%, though people will continue to drop out of the workforce in large numbers.

    Stocks will break to new all time highs.

    Gold breaks 2000.

    Oil averages ~$100 per barrel.

    $1 trillion+ budget deficit.
    2 out of 4 so far.

    Though I am under a different impression in regards to the price of gold. I firmly believe the pricing mechanism is not correct, so the price is not indicative of what I thought it would be. Whether I am right on that, I doubt we find out this year.

    And I am still pretty close to the 8% unemployment number. My prediction is a specific 8%, so I probably won't hit it.
    What I say is for entertainment purposes only!

    Mark 10:45 The Son of Man did not come to be served, but to serve, and to give His life as a ransom for many.

  9. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubical View Post
    2 out of 4 so far.

    Though I am under a different impression in regards to the price of gold. I firmly believe the pricing mechanism is not correct, so the price is not indicative of what I thought it would be. Whether I am right on that, I doubt we find out this year.

    And I am still pretty close to the 8% unemployment number. My prediction is a specific 8%, so I probably won't hit it.
    They all made sense to me , I would never have guessed though that stocks would be this high....

  10. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by John F Kennedy III View Post
    Buy Bitcoins. They're 12 times more valuable than USD.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    Not if the internet is quiesced. Then they are worth nothing.

    Technology-dependent money is very risky stuff. May look great on paper, but when things go sour and that technology becomes unavailable even for relatively short periods, people vested in such money stand to find themselves in some warm and possibly very deep water.

    The technologies that support bit coins will go <poof> well before conditions favoring gold and silver fail, so consider the order of your dominoes before committing.

    Just a friendly reality check.
    on 12/21/12 BTC were $3.8 so you would have been able to take JFK's advise and bought 26.31578947btc on the exchange one year later.....

    BTC was high at $669.00 for the day.... you would now have $17605.26

    JFK was wrong on his prediction.... BTC has gone up way more then 12x

    At the high for the year BTC was $1242.00 which would have been worth $32684.21!!!!


    Damn wish I had taken his advise.

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