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Thread: U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops to Lowest Since December 2008

  1. #31
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    ::: spitting out the idiotic words you put in my mouth :::
    Don't you just hate that? It happens to be one of my major pet peeves. And a few too many of the folks around here like to do that.

    Once again there's the attempt to frame what I said as somehow being about the mere fact that you have or express a different view. Wouldn't that be fun to debate instead? Why, that would be so easy to knock out of the park, wouldn't it?

    Three strikes, you're now being obtuse. Go back and reread, this time applying whatever comprehension and critical thinking skills you have to what I actually wrote. (Hint: part of it starts with "There's nothing wrong with contrary opinions...")
    This guy (the OP) reminds me of all the people in the runup to the 2008 election just insisting that the economy was all sunshine and lollipops, and we who were throwing red flags everywhere were the loonies trying to get the system down lol



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  3. #32
    une plume de Libertée GunnyFreedom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Unemployment should start to rise , ea month , for the first 6 months of next yr.
    I suspect that by May-June of 2013 intense inflationary pressure will be too heavy to hide or 'explain away' anymore.

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    That's like saying the Houston Astros manage win 70 games, just because it doesn't suck as bad it still isn't an accomplishment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Awesome. Since debt is considered money, that means consumers have lots and lots more money.
    and without the incomes to repay it back....nice.
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  6. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    I suspect that by May-June of 2013 intense inflationary pressure will be too heavy to hide or 'explain away' anymore.
    I can't disagree with this strongly enough. I suspect that at some point the Student Loan Bubble will burst or at least begin to deflate, which could very well usher in a new, though less extreme, Great Recession. And even if that does not happen, there's a very real possibility that we could be in for a bit of a deflationary spell, similar to what we experienced during the Great Recession when consumers pulled back, some debts were written-off, and credit dried up - particularly if tax rates rise.
    Last edited by KingNothing; 12-08-2012 at 08:53 AM.

  7. #36

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    LOL there is no way only 7.7% of able-bodied people in this country cannot find work. If that were true this economy would be in a lot better shape.

    This number masks the real problems.

    1. Many workers are discouraged and not looking for work at all anymore.

    2. Many people are just going on government assistance instead of working instead, as "disabled"

    3. Many are taking lower paid jobs out of their field, part-time work etc

    4. Many are working for the bloated federal government

  8. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    I suspect that by May-June of 2013 intense inflationary pressure will be too heavy to hide or 'explain away' anymore.
    Yeah I've heard this since 2007. At what point will you be wrong?

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    If the economy takes off like gang busters Jan - June with tax increases, etc, I will be wrong .

  10. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by GunnyFreedom View Post
    Don't you just hate that? It happens to be one of my major pet peeves. And a few too many of the folks around here like to do that.



    This guy (the OP) reminds me of all the people in the runup to the 2008 election just insisting that the economy was all sunshine and lollipops, and we who were throwing red flags everywhere were the loonies trying to get the system down lol
    You know, Gunny, it's really beneath you to trash the poster rather than his position. There are indeed green shoots in the economy. The demand for temporary workers is rising - that's a leading indicator I've been looking for. I think that OT will rise next.

    Some of his cheerleading is over the top, but the underlying arguments seem solid and documented.

    I don't understand how this can be sustained, but they've sustained it all these years so there's no reason for me to necessarily believe that this is the end. Heck, I thought the 2008 crash was the beginning of the end. I can't believe that hyper-inflation hasn't smacked us hard, yet. But it hasn't, so maybe it won't.
    Last edited by angelatc; 12-08-2012 at 12:09 PM.
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  11. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Yeah I've heard this since 2007. At what point will you be wrong?
    bored waiting?

  12. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tpoints View Post
    bored waiting?
    Incredibly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    In this economy, consumer debt is at AN ALL TIME HIGH !

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-con...--finance.html
    Meanwhile, in places where stats are normalized by ratio...

    In the third quarter, total household liabilities were 112.7 percent of after-tax income during the third quarter, the lowest since 2003 and down from 113.4 percent in the second quarter.

    Economists are divided over how much further households have to go in this deleveraging process. Further debt reduction would leave less money for spending, slowing the wider economy.

    While total debt as a share of income remains historically high, one measure kept by the Fed has shown that monthly debt payments as a share of income in the second quarter were at the lowest since 1993.
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...,7743577.story

  13. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Incredibly.

    Meanwhile, in places where stats are normalized by ratio...

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...,7743577.story
    wouldn't even surprise me if he was only referring to total consumer debt, as if that would ever lower if population doesn't decrease.

  14. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tpoints View Post
    wouldn't even surprise me if he was only referring to total consumer debt, as if that would ever lower if population doesn't decrease.
    He was referring to total consumer debt as in consumer debt only. Really, the amount of debt you carry isn't a big deal unless you don't have the income to back it up. Luckily, Americans do have the income to back it up, as evidenced by the fact that the American consumer carries a debt burden the least costly to them since 1993. Interestingly, I don't remember the years following 1993 to be very bad times for the United States.

  15. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Yeah I've heard this since 2007. At what point will you be wrong?
    The idea that hyper-inflation is right around the corner just seems absurd to me at this point.

  16. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    The idea that hyper-inflation is right around the corner just seems absurd to me at this point.
    you know you're gonna get flogged for that, right?

  17. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    ::: spitting out the idiotic words you put in my mouth :::

    Once again there's the attempt to frame what I said as somehow being about the mere fact that you have or express a different view. Wouldn't that be fun to debate instead? Why, that would be so easy to knock out of the park, wouldn't it?

    Three strikes, you're now being obtuse. Go back and reread, this time applying whatever comprehension and critical thinking skills you have to what I actually wrote. (Hint: part of it starts with "There's nothing wrong with contrary opinions...")
    Quite obvious by now that you're more interested in finding out why I'm posting than discussing what I'm posting. I always try to bring out my best arguments backed with relevant data to the discussion. I really just want to stick to the topic at hand, which is that American unemployment is the lowest since 2008 driven by factors like near-double digit construction growth, 18 months of increases in pending home sales, housing starts reaching a 4 year high, and that the largest share of Americans EVER is confident enough to want to buy a home in the next 6 months.

    Additionally, car sales are running at a pace not seen since 2008 and household wealth is catching up to 2007 highs.

    I have my reasons for thinking the economy is improving. I've cited them. I don't know why that's such a problem.
    Last edited by Jordan; 12-08-2012 at 12:40 PM.

  18. #47

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    He was referring to total consumer debt as in consumer debt only. Really, the amount of debt you carry isn't a big deal unless you don't have the income to back it up. Luckily, Americans do have the income to back it up, as evidenced by the fact that the American consumer carries a debt burden the least costly to them since 1993. Interestingly, I don't remember the years following 1993 to be very bad times for the United States.
    This is a typical response from a Keynesian follower. "Debt isn't bad unless you can pay it." I've heard this nonsense a million times, especially from professors, and I am so tired of it.

    Debt is debt.

    The idea is NOT to be in debt.

    What are you going to say next, that WWII ended The Great Depression? That a recession is simply defined by unemployment alone?

    I personally don't have a problem with opposing views. I think it's great to post shit like this.

    I am jsut going after your comment and responding to how ridiculous it is.
    Last edited by No Free Beer; 12-08-2012 at 12:50 PM.
    "I am, therefore I'll think" - Ayn Rand

  19. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by No Free Beer View Post
    This is a typical response from a Keynesian follower. "Debt isn't bad unless you can pay it." I've heard this nonsense a million times, especially from professors, and I am so tired of it.

    Debt is debt.

    The idea is NOT to be in debt.

    What are you going to say next, that WWII ended The Great Depression? That a recession is simply defined by unemployment alone?

    I personally don't have a problem with opposing views. I think it's great to post shit like this.

    I am jsut going after your comment and responding to how ridiculous it is.
    If someone offered to lend you $100,000 at a post-tax rate of 2.8% for the next 30 years would you turn that down?

  20. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by No Free Beer View Post
    This is a typical response from a Keynesian follower. "Debt isn't bad unless you can pay it." I've heard this nonsense a million times, especially from professors, and I am so tired of it.

    Debt is debt.

    The idea is NOT to be in debt.

    What are you going to say next, that WWII ended The Great Depression? That a recession is simply defined by unemployment alone?

    I personally don't have a problem with opposing views. I think it's great to post shit like this.

    I am jsut going after your comment and responding to how ridiculous it is.
    I don't think he's saying abuse the system and get good debt, he too believes debt is always worse than non-debt.

  21. #50

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    In fact, you are justifying debt with your comment.

    It's like saying, "in a recession, we need to lower taxes and increase spending. This way, we will run up debt, but when poeple get back to work, we will be able to pay off the debt in the long run."

    Maybe I misunderstood you.
    "I am, therefore I'll think" - Ayn Rand

  22. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    If someone offered to lend you $100,000 at a post-tax rate of 2.8% for the next 30 years would you turn that down?
    please be more specific.
    "I am, therefore I'll think" - Ayn Rand

  23. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by No Free Beer View Post
    please be more specific.
    I'm offering you an amortizing loan that, after taxes, will cost you 2.8%. The loan amount is $100,000, and it will amortize over the next 30 years. Do you take my offer?

    If you're rational, you do. You realize that the cost of carry is negligible, virtually zero, in fact, and that you're getting all the time value in the world for mere pennies. Going into debt at today's low interest rates are perhaps the smartest thing you could ever do.

  24. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    I don't understand how this can be sustained, but they've sustained it all these years so there's no reason for me to necessarily believe that this is the end. Heck, I thought the 2008 crash was the beginning of the end. I can't believe that hyper-inflation hasn't smacked us hard, yet. But it hasn't, so maybe it won't.
    Just a perspective to add. remember the video on the "Morning Joe", where they had Ron Paul's quotes on the housing crash? The quotes date from 2003. That's 7-9 years after the dot-com bubble, and 5 years before the housing crash.

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    Well, it matters what it's for. If it's something I need, like a home for my family (which I doubt you can find for 100K), I would say no. I don't want 100,000 jsut to have 100K, even at 2.8%. That's stupid. Again, you seem to be promoting debt.

    The only benefit I could see (maybe) is if you obtain a tax deductible because of it. And the only way I would accept that is if I truly SAVED money.

    This is exactly the point I am trying to make. It seems as though Keynesians just say "hey, go get in debt, it's okay! Just look how great those rates are!!!" When, if I don't need it, why accept it?

    I don't want to be a slave to anyone if I can help it.

    And for you to imply that if I don't accept that, I am "irrational" is ridiculous.
    "I am, therefore I'll think" - Ayn Rand

  26. #55

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    jordan you need to be more specific. 2.8 percent a year? APR? EAR? you need to state whether or not the interest on the loan is tax deductible as well. the cost of carry is below inflation, so if you're talking about a fixed rate loan @ a cost thats less than inflation, its more advantageous than taking on debt at a rate thats higher than inflation without any tax benefits.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    I'm offering you an amortizing loan that, after taxes, will cost you 2.8%. The loan amount is $100,000, and it will amortize over the next 30 years. Do you take my offer?

    If you're rational, you do. You realize that the cost of carry is negligible, virtually zero, in fact, and that you're getting all the time value in the world for mere pennies. Going into debt at today's low interest rates are perhaps the smartest thing you could ever do.

  27. #56
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    I do not need the 100k at any interest .Not interested.

  28. #57

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    I'll safeguard your $100k for 10% annually.....

  29. #58

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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I do not need the 100k at any interest .Not interested.
    I tend to agree with you.

    But again, this is why Jordan's question, at least as it stands right now, doesn't make any sense because he's not being specific.
    "I am, therefore I'll think" - Ayn Rand

  30. #59

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    Quote Originally Posted by No Free Beer View Post
    Well, it matters what it's for. If it's something I need, like a home for my family (which I doubt you can find for 100K), I would say no. I don't want 100,000 jsut to have 100K, even at 2.8%. That's stupid. Again, you seem to be promoting debt.

    The only benefit I could see (maybe) is if you obtain a tax deductible because of it. And the only way I would accept that is if I truly SAVED money.

    This is exactly the point I am trying to make. It seems as though Keynesians just say "hey, go get in debt, it's okay! Just look how great those rates are!!!" When, if I don't need it, why accept it?

    I don't want to be a slave to anyone if I can help it.

    And for you to imply that if I don't accept that, I am "irrational" is ridiculous.
    I'm sorry you see it as slavery. I see it as opportunity, as do many Americans. Debt is okay at these rates and assuming that you have the income to cover it. Rising consumer debt levels are not a concern, anyway, seeing as the total debt Americans hold is more manageable than their debt in 1994. We're a well financed country with ample cash flow to cover our liabilities.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Binghamton Patriot View Post
    jordan you need to be more specific. 2.8 percent a year? APR? EAR? you need to state whether or not the interest on the loan is tax deductible as well. the cost of carry is below inflation, so if you're talking about a fixed rate loan @ a cost thats less than inflation, its more advantageous than taking on debt at a rate thats higher than inflation without any tax benefits.
    EAR after tax benefits. All in cost to you is 2.8%/year. But you're making this more complicated than it needs to be. Makes way more sense to borrow money today than at any point in history. And, let's be real here, if you're an inflationist, you should be grabbing every fixed rate loan you can find at today's interest rates. Debt isn't a problem, not at all.

    The point of all this: Debt is inexpensive today. It's free if you're an inflationist. Therefore, you should not fear a rising level of debt. It is manageable, and the majority of it is fixed rate. The debt Americans hold today is not like the debt of 2006; it's not debt to a mortgage lender for a negative amortization loan on a bubblicious home with rates that could reset. Catastrophe was built into the system during the debt-fueled mortgage boom of the 2000s due to negative amortization loans and resets. Those are long gone. Debt today isn't relatable to debt in the mid-2000s, and it is much less costly than it was even in 1993. Debt is hardly a weak point for the American consumer.

  31. #60
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    I honestly doubt the avg American even has a clue what they end up paying on a 100,000 dollar home on a 30 yr fixed rate loan , of any rate by thetime it is done...

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