China bubble getting ready to bust!

[carclinic]

The Chinese bubble is supposedly different than hours in the same way the Japanese bubble was: most of the property is already 50% paid down. They don't have 0% or 5% down loans. So, if the value of the property was twice as much as it should be and the value collapsed 50%, the banks don't really lose anything = no major crisis. The United States has the whole world paying for their QE2 and 3 through devalued currency. The RMB doesn't have that benefit any more than the Yen. But, like Japan, their obnoxiously high property values are supported by substantial down payments.

[FindLiberty]

... Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor...

It's a wild ride indeed.

China Shrugged?

But even John Galt had to eat...

[osan]

Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor- to places like Vietnam.

That can be readily taken care of with a little tightening of the noose. Restrict freedoms more, say nothing about it, make arrests, send convicts off to factories to pay their debts to "society".

Some will say this is nonsense, but if China's agenda is threatened I do believe there is nearly nothing to which they would resort to get what they want. There is nothing fancier going on here than the same old thing: power acquisition, maintenance, and cultivation. No analytic rocket surgery required for understanding.

[osan]

Unlike here, when there's real financial trouble, civil unrest can get truly ugly in ways that doesn't ever happen here.

I have a friend, we will call him Michael. He lived in Beijing for 15 years or more, married a Chinese woman and has a few children. Long ago he alerted me to the fact that "terrorist" bombings were a daily occurrence in China, and he meant EVERY DAY without fail. Imagine that! He's back in the USA now several years and I have no idea whether the bombings are still going on, but it would not surprise me to learn that they were.

There's a steady history of that in China, and a reason why a common "how do you do" greeting there is "Have you eaten yet?" A long, long fuse of longsuffering and patience eventually becomes Off With Their Fucking Heads time when actual mortality, and not just 'survival', is threatened.

That is what we need here because it now appears there is nothing less that will spur Americans to action. Consider the endless parade of police atrocities committed every single day, yet not a single crooked, murdering cop has been hunted and aired out. That tells us something very basic about who and what Americans are today and I am ashamed to say I am not better than the average on that account... though who can say what tomorrow may bring.

Their problem is not going to be housing. That's only truly scarce in the inner cities--where all the money is. Their problem is going to be normal access to food, not to mention the means for everyone to pay for it, which is already hanging from a thread. And the Chinese have no problem with price fixing, despite the massive shortages that come as a result, because those fundamentals have nothing to do with politics, or edicts from anyone, regardless how mighty and powerful.

Seeing China implode will cause me no sleepless nights. One rotten government down is better than none. I pray for it to happen here, though from what I have as yet observed it appears the degree of collapse required to get the average American idiot shaken into some vague semblance of reason appears to be frighteningly high. To that all I can say is if you can get out of urban areas, get out now. Cities are the last places anyone with any brains will want to be when it comes, and I suspect it WILL come. We cannot go on like this indefinitely.

[BAllen]

I have a friend, we will call him Michael. He lived in Beijing for 15 years or more, married a Chinese woman and has a few children. Long ago he alerted me to the fact that "terrorist" bombings were a daily occurrence in China, and he meant EVERY DAY without fail. Imagine that! He's back in the USA now several years and I have no idea whether the bombings are still going on, but it would not surprise me to learn that they were.

That is what we need here because it now appears there is nothing less that will spur Americans to action. Consider the endless parade of police atrocities committed every single day, yet not a single crooked, murdering cop has been hunted and aired out. That tells us something very basic about who and what Americans are today and I am ashamed to say I am not better than the average on that account... though who can say what tomorrow may bring.



Seeing China implode will cause me no sleepless nights. One rotten government down is better than none. I pray for it to happen here, though from what I have as yet observed it appears the degree of collapse required to get the average American idiot shaken into some vague semblance of reason appears to be frighteningly high. To that all I can say is if you can get out of urban areas, get out now. Cities are the last places anyone with any brains will want to be when it comes, and I suspect it WILL come. We cannot go on like this indefinitely.

My sentiments exactly! They've been cheating on trade for decades, and their pollution is so bad, it creeps into california. Fuck China!

[BAllen]

China owes U.S. for bonds:
1 trillion dollars!
http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html

[Zippyjuan]

China owes U.S. for bonds:
1 trillion dollars!
http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html

China does not owe the US $1 trillion. They do hold US Treasury notes which are presently worth $1.15 trillion (they already gave us the money) http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html but they won't want to cash them all in at once (likely will allow them to mature and get paid off naturally). If they did dump them, the value of their currency relative to the US dollar would soar and their exports would suddenly be incredibly expensive and the US would stop buying things from them- severly depressing their economy. The US would have a much easier time exporting our own goods to them since the change in exchange rate would make it much cheaper to buy from us. As for this alleged $1 trillion they owe us-

According to the link, http://americanbondholdersfoundation.com/

BACKGROUND:

From 1900 to 1940, the Chinese Government issued millions of dollars in sovereign debt – most notably, a large tranche of £25,000,000 issued at 5% in 1913 set to mature in 1960. This massive bond funded the modernization of China’s infrastructure and was widely acquired at the time by governments, banks, and investors across the globe. However, in 1938 China defaulted on its "binding engagement upon the Government of the Republic of China and its Successors," leaving millions of global creditors unpaid. In accordance with the terms of the bond, successor government doctrine, and accounting standards, the United States can and should hold China accountable to its obligations.

WHO HOLDS THE BONDS:

The Chinese bonds in question are held throughout the world by treasuries, banks, companies, and over 20,000 private U.S. investors – many of which are active in seeking remuneration. Critically, the U.S. Treasury and Departments of Justice and State are understood to hold substantial portions of this Chinese sovereign debt. These holdings have not been fully cataloged nor has the U.S. Government moved to hold China accountable for its debt obligations.

The Chinese government which would have issued those bonds was overthrown in 1949 by the Communists. Mao renounced the debt of his predicessors so good luck trying to collect on it.

[Pauls' Revere]

Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor- to places like Vietnam.

yep, and this cycle will repeat itself over and over as it travels around the globe. I see Africa becoming the next emerging marketplace.

[KCIndy]

China does not owe the US $1 trillion. They do hold US Treasury notes which are presently worth $1.15 trillion (they already gave us the money)

HA!! What suckers!!! Gosh, they're sure gonna be sorry they gave us that cash when they watch our dollar crash and burn and become completely and totally worthless... ha ha!! HA HA HA!!! Heh heh heh.... umm..... of course, it'll mean a lot of the U.S. will be left destitute and eating dog food stew...

[osan]

The Chinese government which would have issued those bonds was overthrown in 1949 by the Communists. Mao renounced the debt of his predicessors so good luck trying to collect on it.

Mao may have been one of the grand douches of all time, but this was the smart move. We should be so smart.