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Thread: China bubble getting ready to bust!

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    Default China bubble getting ready to bust!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17390729

    They have many empty cities with no one living in them.



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    Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor- to places like Vietnam.
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    The problem is that, like here, they are propping the housing market up. Some places, 70%, despite the empty cities that could be put on the open market, to drive down housing to affordable levels.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ely-empty.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by BAllen View Post
    The problem is that, like here, they are propping the housing market up. Some places, 70%, despite the empty cities that could be put on the open market, to drive down housing to affordable levels.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ely-empty.html
    Unlike here, when there's real financial trouble, civil unrest can get truly ugly in ways that doesn't ever happen here. There's a steady history of that in China, and a reason why a common "how do you do" greeting there is "Have you eaten yet?" A long, long fuse of longsuffering and patience eventually becomes Off With Their Fucking Heads time when actual mortality, and not just 'survival', is threatened. And nobody knows that better than the Chinese government. But...not to worry, as they're trying to follow their own version of our model. And look at us! If it wasn't for that whole Reserve Currency Petrodollar thingy, and the fact that the RMB is so internal-only and highly controlled, they'd be able to export their inflation as well.

    I lived in a "small" city of nearly 6 million people, up from 1 million in 1990 as a couple of decades of populations steadily abandoned the more rural farming areas and poured in from all the poorer provinces looking for any opportunities they could find. There are more than 20 million people living in Shanghai alone (it's really quite something to see in person). Anyone not from Shanghai is treated as a foreigner, and taxed at a fairly heavy rate as an outsider...which pushes them outward, to the steadily growing lower rent outskirts. When that bubble pops, it implodes before it explodes, underscoring one of the biggest fundamental problems with wealth centralization.

    Their problem is not going to be housing. That's only truly scarce in the inner cities--where all the money is. Their problem is going to be normal access to food, not to mention the means for everyone to pay for it, which is already hanging from a thread. And the Chinese have no problem with price fixing, despite the massive shortages that come as a result, because those fundamentals have nothing to do with politics, or edicts from anyone, regardless how mighty and powerful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Unlike here, when there's real financial trouble, civil unrest can get truly ugly in ways that doesn't ever happen here. There's a steady history of that in China, and a reason why a common "how do you do" greeting there is "Have you eaten yet?" A long, long fuse of longsuffering and patience eventually becomes Off With Their Fucking Heads time when actual mortality, and not just 'survival', is threatened. And nobody knows that better than the Chinese government. But...not to worry, as they're trying to follow their own version of our model. And look at us! If it wasn't for that whole Reserve Currency Petrodollar thingy, and the fact that the RMB is so internal-only and highly controlled, they'd be able to export their inflation as well.

    I lived in a "small" city of nearly 6 million people, up from 1 million in 1990 as a couple of decades of populations steadily abandoned the more rural farming areas and poured in from all the poorer provinces looking for any opportunities they could find. There are more than 20 million people living in Shanghai alone (it's really quite something to see in person). Anyone not from Shanghai is treated as a foreigner, and taxed at a fairly heavy rate as an outsider...which pushes them outward, to the steadily growing lower rent outskirts. When that bubble pops, it implodes before it explodes, underscoring one of the biggest fundamental problems with wealth centralization.

    Their problem is not going to be housing. That's only truly scarce in the inner cities--where all the money is. Their problem is going to be normal access to food, not to mention the means for everyone to pay for it, which is already hanging from a thread. And the Chinese have no problem with price fixing, despite the massive shortages that come as a result, because those fundamentals have nothing to do with politics, or edicts from anyone, regardless how mighty and powerful.
    Are you saying that there are iron laws of economics that cannot be overruled by government?
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    I recall seeing something in 2010-1 about the empty cities on BBC. And that article is from March. What makes you think it is getting ready to bust in the very near future?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BAllen View Post
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17390729

    They have many empty cities with no one living in them.
    unlike us, right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them.
    Wait, they did that on their own?? I thought that was the government's job
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    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Wait, they did that on their own?? I thought that was the government's job
    Nobody ever claims it is the government's job to demand better pay or better work conditions, nobody wants bad pay or bad working conditions, it's just whether people believe government should be involved in enforcing such demands. I have not seen one country where government forces workers to be treated better than workers want themselves as a norm (I'm sure there's always weird exceptions).

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    That dumbass city (Ordos) has been empty for years. Maybe they are waiting for Shoeless Joe, Ty Cobb, and their friends to pop out of the cornfields and populate this ghost city.

  12. #11

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    The Chinese bubble is supposedly different than hours in the same way the Japanese bubble was: most of the property is already 50% paid down. They don't have 0% or 5% down loans. So, if the value of the property was twice as much as it should be and the value collapsed 50%, the banks don't really lose anything = no major crisis. The United States has the whole world paying for their QE2 and 3 through devalued currency. The RMB doesn't have that benefit any more than the Yen. But, like Japan, their obnoxiously high property values are supported by substantial down payments.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    ... Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor...
    It's a wild ride indeed.

    China Shrugged?

    But even John Galt had to eat...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor- to places like Vietnam.
    That can be readily taken care of with a little tightening of the noose. Restrict freedoms more, say nothing about it, make arrests, send convicts off to factories to pay their debts to "society".

    Some will say this is nonsense, but if China's agenda is threatened I do believe there is nearly nothing to which they would resort to get what they want. There is nothing fancier going on here than the same old thing: power acquisition, maintenance, and cultivation. No analytic rocket surgery required for understanding.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Unlike here, when there's real financial trouble, civil unrest can get truly ugly in ways that doesn't ever happen here.
    I have a friend, we will call him Michael. He lived in Beijing for 15 years or more, married a Chinese woman and has a few children. Long ago he alerted me to the fact that "terrorist" bombings were a daily occurrence in China, and he meant EVERY DAY without fail. Imagine that! He's back in the USA now several years and I have no idea whether the bombings are still going on, but it would not surprise me to learn that they were.

    There's a steady history of that in China, and a reason why a common "how do you do" greeting there is "Have you eaten yet?" A long, long fuse of longsuffering and patience eventually becomes Off With Their Fucking Heads time when actual mortality, and not just 'survival', is threatened.
    That is what we need here because it now appears there is nothing less that will spur Americans to action. Consider the endless parade of police atrocities committed every single day, yet not a single crooked, murdering cop has been hunted and aired out. That tells us something very basic about who and what Americans are today and I am ashamed to say I am not better than the average on that account... though who can say what tomorrow may bring.

    Their problem is not going to be housing. That's only truly scarce in the inner cities--where all the money is. Their problem is going to be normal access to food, not to mention the means for everyone to pay for it, which is already hanging from a thread. And the Chinese have no problem with price fixing, despite the massive shortages that come as a result, because those fundamentals have nothing to do with politics, or edicts from anyone, regardless how mighty and powerful.
    Seeing China implode will cause me no sleepless nights. One rotten government down is better than none. I pray for it to happen here, though from what I have as yet observed it appears the degree of collapse required to get the average American idiot shaken into some vague semblance of reason appears to be frighteningly high. To that all I can say is if you can get out of urban areas, get out now. Cities are the last places anyone with any brains will want to be when it comes, and I suspect it WILL come. We cannot go on like this indefinitely.
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    ignominia et contemptum tyrannis

    Habeo excelsum artem; afflixerim cum crudelitate illis qui laedas me

    Shelley's thinly veiled warning to tyrants:

    The monster saw my determination in my face and gnashed his teeth in the impotence of anger. "Shall each man," cried he, "find a wife for his bosom, and each beast have his mate, and I be alone? I had feelings of affection, and they were requited by detestation and scorn. Man! You may hate, but beware! Your hours will pass in dread and misery, and soon the bolt will fall which must ravish from you your happiness forever. Are you to be happy while I grovel in the intensity of my wretchedness? You can blast my other passions, but revenge remains--revenge, henceforth dearer than light or food! I may die, but first you, my tyrant and tormentor, shall curse the sun that gazes on your misery. Beware, for I am fearless and therefore powerful. I will watch with the wiliness of a snake, that I may sting with its venom. Man, you shall repent of the injuries you inflict.

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    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    I have a friend, we will call him Michael. He lived in Beijing for 15 years or more, married a Chinese woman and has a few children. Long ago he alerted me to the fact that "terrorist" bombings were a daily occurrence in China, and he meant EVERY DAY without fail. Imagine that! He's back in the USA now several years and I have no idea whether the bombings are still going on, but it would not surprise me to learn that they were.

    That is what we need here because it now appears there is nothing less that will spur Americans to action. Consider the endless parade of police atrocities committed every single day, yet not a single crooked, murdering cop has been hunted and aired out. That tells us something very basic about who and what Americans are today and I am ashamed to say I am not better than the average on that account... though who can say what tomorrow may bring.



    Seeing China implode will cause me no sleepless nights. One rotten government down is better than none. I pray for it to happen here, though from what I have as yet observed it appears the degree of collapse required to get the average American idiot shaken into some vague semblance of reason appears to be frighteningly high. To that all I can say is if you can get out of urban areas, get out now. Cities are the last places anyone with any brains will want to be when it comes, and I suspect it WILL come. We cannot go on like this indefinitely.
    My sentiments exactly! They've been cheating on trade for decades, and their pollution is so bad, it creeps into california. Fuck China!

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    China owes U.S. for bonds:
    1 trillion dollars!
    http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by BAllen View Post
    China owes U.S. for bonds:
    1 trillion dollars!
    http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html
    China does not owe the US $1 trillion. They do hold US Treasury notes which are presently worth $1.15 trillion (they already gave us the money) http://www.americanbondholdersfounda...ion_alert.html but they won't want to cash them all in at once (likely will allow them to mature and get paid off naturally). If they did dump them, the value of their currency relative to the US dollar would soar and their exports would suddenly be incredibly expensive and the US would stop buying things from them- severly depressing their economy. The US would have a much easier time exporting our own goods to them since the change in exchange rate would make it much cheaper to buy from us. As for this alleged $1 trillion they owe us-

    According to the link, http://americanbondholdersfoundation.com/

    BACKGROUND:

    From 1900 to 1940, the Chinese Government issued millions of dollars in sovereign debt – most notably, a large tranche of 25,000,000 issued at 5% in 1913 set to mature in 1960. This massive bond funded the modernization of China’s infrastructure and was widely acquired at the time by governments, banks, and investors across the globe. However, in 1938 China defaulted on its "binding engagement upon the Government of the Republic of China and its Successors," leaving millions of global creditors unpaid. In accordance with the terms of the bond, successor government doctrine, and accounting standards, the United States can and should hold China accountable to its obligations.

    WHO HOLDS THE BONDS:

    The Chinese bonds in question are held throughout the world by treasuries, banks, companies, and over 20,000 private U.S. investors – many of which are active in seeking remuneration. Critically, the U.S. Treasury and Departments of Justice and State are understood to hold substantial portions of this Chinese sovereign debt. These holdings have not been fully cataloged nor has the U.S. Government moved to hold China accountable for its debt obligations.
    The Chinese government which would have issued those bonds was overthrown in 1949 by the Communists. Mao renounced the debt of his predicessors so good luck trying to collect on it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Their "labor cost" advantage is shrinking. They used to be able to bring thousands to their cities who would be willing to take any job for whatever the jobs paid. Now they are becoming more demanding both in the type of jobs they are willing to do as well as the pay they are willing to accept to do them. They are starting to face labor shortages in some areas and rising wages they have to pay to attract labor. Some industries are actually leaving China in search of cheaper labor- to places like Vietnam.
    yep, and this cycle will repeat itself over and over as it travels around the globe. I see Africa becoming the next emerging marketplace.
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  20. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    China does not owe the US $1 trillion. They do hold US Treasury notes which are presently worth $1.15 trillion (they already gave us the money)
    HA!! What suckers!!! Gosh, they're sure gonna be sorry they gave us that cash when they watch our dollar crash and burn and become completely and totally worthless... ha ha!! HA HA HA!!! Heh heh heh.... umm..... of course, it'll mean a lot of the U.S. will be left destitute and eating dog food stew...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The Chinese government which would have issued those bonds was overthrown in 1949 by the Communists. Mao renounced the debt of his predicessors so good luck trying to collect on it.
    Mao may have been one of the grand douches of all time, but this was the smart move. We should be so smart.
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    ignominia et contemptum tyrannis

    Habeo excelsum artem; afflixerim cum crudelitate illis qui laedas me

    Shelley's thinly veiled warning to tyrants:

    The monster saw my determination in my face and gnashed his teeth in the impotence of anger. "Shall each man," cried he, "find a wife for his bosom, and each beast have his mate, and I be alone? I had feelings of affection, and they were requited by detestation and scorn. Man! You may hate, but beware! Your hours will pass in dread and misery, and soon the bolt will fall which must ravish from you your happiness forever. Are you to be happy while I grovel in the intensity of my wretchedness? You can blast my other passions, but revenge remains--revenge, henceforth dearer than light or food! I may die, but first you, my tyrant and tormentor, shall curse the sun that gazes on your misery. Beware, for I am fearless and therefore powerful. I will watch with the wiliness of a snake, that I may sting with its venom. Man, you shall repent of the injuries you inflict.

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    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    Mao may have been one of the grand douches of all time, but this was the smart move. We should be so smart.
    Good idea! Just take the ledger and put a 0 for any money owed to China.





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