Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 58

Thread: Schiff Backs Down from Hyperinflation Debate

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1

    Schiff Backs Down from Hyperinflation Debate

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...om-debate.html


    Schiff's changing his tune. In a recent interview he said, "I still say that hyperinflation is a worst case scenario. I never say we are going to have it for sure."

    He's also backing down from a commitment to debate Mish about hyperinflation.



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #2
    Schiff in 2009 on Glen Beck (repeated in the NY Times December 2011):
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...n-predictions/
    Peter Schiff on Glenn Beck, Dec. 28, 2009:


    PAYNE: So, where are you then, Peter, with respect to inflation? Do you think this is going to be the big story of 2010?

    SCHIFF: You know, look, I know inflation is going to get worse in 2010. Whether it’s going to run out of control or it’s going to take until 2011 or 2012, but I know we’re going to have a major currency crisis coming soon. It’s going to dwarf the financial crisis and it’s going to send consumer prices absolutely ballistic, as well as interest rates and unemployment.

    PAYNE: And what does that mean? For people watching this show, what does that mean for the average American?

    SCHIFF: It means their life is going to get a lot more difficult. It means things that they need to buy, things like food and energy, are going to be much more expensive. Ultimately, interest rates are going to rise and their entire standard of living is going to plunge.

    And I’m hoping the government doesn’t respond to this inflation with price controls because that’s going to make it even worse. Now, you’re going to be waiting in long lines to get basic food items or to get energy because there’s going to be shortages. People might be going to the black market.

    PAYNE: You’re talking you’re talking Zimbabwe, Weimar, Germany — I mean, you’re really talking about something like that actually happening in this country.

    SCHIFF: It will happen if we don’t change policies. There is still time to change.

    PAYNE: Right.

    SCHIFF: I mean, I’m running for the United States Senate, so I can try to change that myself. But if we don’t reverse course, if we continue to stimulate, then we will end up with hyperinflation and it will be like Zimbabwe.

  4. #3
    Schiff has nearly always qualified the hyperinflation call as a worst case scenario and not guaranteed. The only time he doesn't qualify the hyperinflation call is when he's on some combative panel of CNBC idiots and he gets all worked up. Schiff has a gigantic chip on his shoulder from being laughed at for years on financial media.

  5. #4
    Just curious- has Schiff ever had anything positive to say about the economy- even before the current economic crisis- or is he always bearish?

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Just curious- has Schiff ever had anything positive to say about the economy- even before the current economic crisis- or is he always bearish?
    Since he has been on record, have we ever had a true free market with sound money? then no, he has been bearish and for all the right reason. have you read how an economy grows and why it doesn't?
    rewritten history with armies of their crooks - invented memories, did burn all the books... Mark Knopfler

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Just curious- has Schiff ever had anything positive to say about the economy- even before the current economic crisis- or is he always bearish?
    There is nothing positive to say about the economy for about the last 30 years.
    My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right, tend to be unwilling or unable to accept blame )

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    I have yet to hear any reasonable explanation of how the US government can pay its debts and meet its promises. That means it will either default by not paying or it will "meet" its debts and obligations by creating money. If someone has another escape route, I would like to hear it.

    Given the two choices of simply NOT making the payments versus making the payments with a vast flood of new, devalued money, I predict the second path because it can delay the day of wreck-oning. Politicians are mostly cowards who will postpone facing reality.

    The dramatic expansion of the money supply needed to "meet" its obligations WILL cause inflation. Hard to say if it will be a hyperinflation, but that would be my guess. In any event it will be enough inflation to turn the economy on its head and ruin millions of lives.

    Adding to this...

    Schiff says in the exact same interview that if we get inflation of 30-40% and maintain ourselves is that not still a hyperinflation of sorts? I think what Schiff is pointing out is that a full scale collapse will not happen but a serious devaluation is still possible and in his mind still on the horizon.

    That or he's peddling doom to sell his gold and silver...
    It's just an opinion... man...

  9. #8
    It's probably wiser that he doesn't.

    I mean, if we go on and on preaching to heavily about hyper-inflation (however possible it may be), and yet people see that we don't have hyper-inflation, then it sort-of ruins our credibility. We can keep talking about it, but you know, just don't over-do it and don't give a definite date of "okay we'll see hyperinflation on june 3rd, 2013" or something. Because if it doesn't happen, then it looks like the people who are always talking about how the world is gonna end on such a date, and then nothing happens.

    It's better just to wait until the event occurs and then be like, "see, I told you, but you idiots wouldn't listen."
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.



  10. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Just curious- has Schiff ever had anything positive to say about the economy- even before the current economic crisis- or is he always bearish?
    Heh....Henry Hazlitt wrote in the 1940s that Brenton woods would collapse...it took 30 years for that to occur. Was he wrong?

    Ron Paul spoke in the 1970s about the collapse of the Federal. Reserve system and the collapse of fiat money. 40 years later, we are still using paper money. Is Ron Paul wrong?

    Schiff said in 2002 that we would have high inflation. We do already. Gasoline a decade ago was a buck a gallon...now it's 4 fold that. Commodity prices are much higher than a decade ago. Plus, inflation also acts to prevent prices from falling, so while computers and HD TVs are cheaper and better than they were a decade ago, you have to ask if they would be even cheaper today had we less inflation.

    Also, if Schiff's predictions come to fruition, is it really a big deal if he's off by a few years given what he's predicting? I mean, when an entire financial system melts down, does it really matter if it's 2008 vs. 2014? Unless you plan on dying before it collapses, I would think it's immaterial whether it happens this year or next year. It's something that hasn't occurred in 200 years in this country: a collapse of the dollar. You're complaining because Schiff's predictions were a few years off given the perspective of what he' s predicting? Lol....

    Besides, as I said, we have had high inflation. Look at everything from houses to stocks to bonds to commodities for the past decade.

  12. #10
    Interview in 2002 when he was also predicting doom. He said we were entering a bear market and was predicting high inflation in the next couple years back then as well. Prediction was for the DOW to go down to 2000 and NASDAQ to 500 and interest rates "through the roof". DOW was 10,000.


  13. #11
    Think this is bad someone should do a "best of Alex Jones" (hello Hot Topics)

    I for one find apocalyptic rhetoric and the idea that abolishing the fed is a cure all to be dangerous.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by thequietkid10 View Post
    Think this is bad someone should do a "best of Alex Jones" (hello Hot Topics)

    I for one find apocalyptic rhetoric and the idea that abolishing the fed is a cure all to be dangerous.
    Dangerous to who? The fed?

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by sgt150 View Post
    Dangerous to who? The fed?
    Yes I'm sure that the fed is quite afraid of critics who have made repeated specific predictions of incoming doom due to fed actions and repeatedly have been wrong.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by thequietkid10 View Post
    Yes I'm sure that the fed is quite afraid of critics who have made repeated specific predictions of incoming doom due to fed actions and repeatedly have been wrong.
    Like predicting the housing collapse that happened for instance?

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by thequietkid10 View Post
    Think this is bad someone should do a "best of Alex Jones" (hello Hot Topics)

    I for one find apocalyptic rhetoric and the idea that abolishing the fed is a cure all to be dangerous.
    Schiff doesn't even advocate getting rid of the Fed. He talks how bad its mismanaged in regards to bailouts and interest rates but I've never heard him blame the Fed for all of our problems.

    I listen to his radio show almost every weekday, he puts blame on congress much more than the Fed and I never heard him say if we just end the Fed all problems will be solved.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Interview in 2002 when he was also predicting doom. He said we were entering a bear market and was predicting high inflation in the next couple years back then as well. Prediction was for the DOW to go down to 2000 and NASDAQ to 500 and interest rates "through the roof". DOW was 10,000.
    And Gold was under 400.

    If you took his advice then, you would be up over 300% with gold vs. 30% in the DOW.
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

    Openly Straight Man, Danke, Awarded Top Rated Influencer. Community Standards Enforcer.


    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of appointment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.



  19. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Danke View Post
    And Gold was under 400.

    If you took his advice then, you would be up over 300% with gold vs. 30% in the DOW.
    I think Schiff does a disservice to himself by assigning specific timetables toward his predictions. He's like Alex Jones in that regard. Other than that, he's great. A big reason why Ron Paul is so fantastic is that he knows better than to do this.

  21. #18
    Lol been a while..
    The ultimate minority is the individual. Protect the individual from Democracy and you will protect all groups of individuals
    Rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the rights of the individual. - Thomas Jefferson
    I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

    - Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

  22. #19
    Mish is a bloodsucker and Schiff doesn't want to feed him with his blood.

  23. #20
    I have yet to hear any reasonable explanation of how the US government can pay its debts and meet its promises. That means it will either default by not paying or it will "meet" its debts and obligations by creating money. If someone has another escape route, I would like to hear it.

    Given the two choices of simply NOT making the payments versus making the payments with a vast flood of new, devalued money, I predict the second path because it can delay the day of wreck-oning. Politicians are mostly cowards who will postpone facing reality.

    The dramatic expansion of the money supply needed to "meet" its obligations WILL cause inflation. Hard to say if it will be a hyperinflation, but that would be my guess. In any event it will be enough inflation to turn the economy on its head and ruin millions of lives.
    The proper concern of society is the preservation of individual freedom; the proper concern of the individual is the harmony of society.

    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow." - Byron

    "Who overcomes by force, hath overcome but half his foe." - Milton

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Given the two choices of simply NOT making the payments versus making the payments with a vast flood of new, devalued money, I predict the second path because it can delay the day of wreck-oning.
    I'm not sure about that. The problem with it is that the federal government's obligations with Social Security and Medicare extend way out into the indefinite future. It's not something where you can pay it off with worthless money and be done with it.

  25. #22
    Hyperinflation isn't tied to expansion of the money supply. Its tied to a loss of faith in the currency. This causes the velocity of money to explode.

    QE is causing serious inflation, but its uneven as it is fighting massive deflationary forces as defaults are causing the money supply to collapse.
    In New Zealand:
    The Coastguard is a Charity
    Air Traffic Control is a private company run on user fees
    The DMV is a private non-profit
    Rescue helicopters and ambulances are operated by charities and are plastered with corporate logos
    The agriculture industry has zero subsidies
    5% of the national vote, gets you 5 seats in Parliament
    A tax return has 4 fields
    Business licenses aren't a thing
    Prostitution is legal
    We have a constitutional right to refuse any type of medical care

  26. #23
    While you make a good point, ultimately the loss in faith stems from expansion of the base money supply by GOVERNMENT. That is to say, arbitrary expansion without the required growth in capital creation to back more units of trade.

    Confidence does not evaporate "Just because". Confidence is eroded by bad policy.

    It is bad policy to paper over debt problems with confetti.

    Quote Originally Posted by idiom View Post
    Hyperinflation isn't tied to expansion of the money supply. Its tied to a loss of faith in the currency. This causes the velocity of money to explode.

    QE is causing serious inflation, but its uneven as it is fighting massive deflationary forces as defaults are causing the money supply to collapse.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  27. #24
    I assume Schiff has made money for his investors in Euro Pacific, but his public punditry has been bearish for as long as I can remember.



  28. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  29. #25
    It's also possible that the goal of the people in charge is not to let it go into hyperinflation, but just to continue as they always have done, which is playing off of centrally-planned cycles of inflation and deflation. Take the housing crisis, for example. The deflationary period that happened in the housing market was a chance for the big players to consolidate their holdings, and now we're going up again, so the cycle will probably repeat. Last year was a hard year for Georgia banks because it seemed like every week you heard about the FDIC folding a smaller bank into a larger one.

    We create some gigantic financial institutions thanks to the boom-bust cycles. Buy low, sell high. Buy low, sell high. Buy low, sell high. And if you have friends at the Fed who can let you know when to expect a low and when to expect a high, it's a rigged market.
    Last edited by nobody's_hero; 11-30-2012 at 07:39 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
    T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." - Plato

    We Are Running Out of Time - Mini Me

    Quote Originally Posted by Philhelm
    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  30. #26
    Just because Schiff sees whats coming earlier than anyone else doesn't mean he is wrong. I feel hyperinflation is certainly in the cards. Schiff's mistake was not seeing the rest of the world following in the US's footsteps proping us up for a while.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by cubical View Post
    Just because Schiff sees whats coming earlier than anyone else doesn't mean he is wrong. I feel hyperinflation is certainly in the cards. Schiff's mistake was not seeing the rest of the world following in the US's footsteps proping us up for a while.
    Yeah, but if I say that the United States will cease to be a country in the future, I'll be right considering the fact that no country lasts forever, but I'll lose credibility because it's not going to happen in any kind of foreseeable future.

    Hyperinflation is NOT likely to happen in the United States within any kind of workable future. I know many doomsayers will disagree, but it's not.
    Quote Originally Posted by jllundqu View Post
    god damn vipers, all of them.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ShaneEnochs View Post
    Yeah, but if I say that the United States will cease to be a country in the future, I'll be right considering the fact that no country lasts forever, but I'll lose credibility because it's not going to happen in any kind of foreseeable future.

    Hyperinflation is NOT likely to happen in the United States within any kind of workable future. I know many doomsayers will disagree, but it's not.
    He said there was a housing/debt bubble in 2002, he was right 4 years later. Don't act like nothing he says has come true. He was wrong on the strength of the dollar, but will soon be right.

    I disagree about hyperinflation. I think it will occur soon(less than 10 years). The pressure on rates to move higher will be too great.

  33. #29
    Hyperinflation is inevitable, as the US dollar loses its reserve status and the mind-boggling amount of US dollars held in reserve by the rest of the world comes flooding back here. Same thing happened to Weimar Germany, they paid other countries in printed marks, those marks came flooding back in and hyperinflation resulted.

    Now this isn't to say that it's going to happen tomorrow, but it will happen. Fiat currencies are doomed in the zero-trust environment created by the world's central bankers and deficit-spending governments.

  34. #30
    Lemme know when a Union wants to get paid in Euros or gold rather than more dollars.
    In New Zealand:
    The Coastguard is a Charity
    Air Traffic Control is a private company run on user fees
    The DMV is a private non-profit
    Rescue helicopters and ambulances are operated by charities and are plastered with corporate logos
    The agriculture industry has zero subsidies
    5% of the national vote, gets you 5 seats in Parliament
    A tax return has 4 fields
    Business licenses aren't a thing
    Prostitution is legal
    We have a constitutional right to refuse any type of medical care

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast


Similar Threads

  1. Gary Johnson Backs Out of Debate Moderated by
    By afwjam in forum Liberty Campaigns
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 05-10-2016, 07:15 PM
  2. National Inflation Association backs Schiff, urges coverage
    By coolerx in forum Peter Schiff Forum 2010
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 06-25-2010, 03:47 AM
  3. Ron Paul, Marc Faber, and Peter Schiff Say Prepare for Hyperinflation
    By bobbyw24 in forum Peter Schiff Forum 2010
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 01-19-2010, 02:41 PM
  4. Replies: 11
    Last Post: 08-31-2009, 10:09 AM
  5. Peter Schiff: Hyperinflation Risk High, Stocks Will Crater
    By disorderlyvision in forum Peter Schiff Forum 2010
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 08-20-2009, 09:05 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •