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Thread: November Car Sales Could Hit Pace Not Seen Since 2008

  1. #151

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Looks like BOTH sales and inventories are up. That does not necessarily mean that the sales figures come from what is sold to dealers and not sales from dealers to customers.
    And this is why Im still asking for a clarification which metric is being used by the articles you two pump monkeys are posting. There's waaaay too much subjective terminology going on in this thread.

    Say I had 100 cars and sold 50. End of month I have 50 cars left. I order 100 more but sell 60. My inventory is now 90 at the end of month which is higher but my sales also increased.
    So we're engaging in hypotheticals now. Here's mine. Say I had 100 cars and sold 20. I didn't order any more but the manufacturer sent me another 100 anyway since Im contractually obligated to take them. Manufacturer claims 200 sales. I claim 20. WSJ calls the manufacturer for comment, not me, and manufacturer claims "brisk new vehicle sales", which gets printed.

    See my point?

    I caught that line you bolded but then realized that the article mostly undercuts both you and Jordan's arguments (incentives are killing what little profit margins exist, thus the investing angle of the auto industry is worrisome), plus there's no source for the "brisk sales" comment.
    Last edited by devil21; 12-05-2012 at 06:10 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

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    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
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  3. #152

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    I guess you don't read your own posts. That's OK- I can help you. Let's go back and read one. See post #125.
    You forgot the context of my comment. It was in response to Jordan claiming a ramp up in inventory in anticipation of increased sales. That is not sales except from manufacturer to dealer and is not a metric indicating anything except the manufacturer and dealer hope to sell them. No one has bought those cars.
    Last edited by devil21; 12-05-2012 at 06:00 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  4. #153

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    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    And this is why Im still asking for a clarification which metric is being used by the articles you two pump monkeys are posting. There's waaaay too much subjective terminology going on in this thread.



    So we're engaging in hypotheticals now. Here's mine. Say I had 100 cars and sold 20. I didn't order any more but the manufacturer sent me another 100 anyway since Im contractually obligated to take them. Manufacturer claims 200 sales. I claim 20. WSJ calls the manufacturer for comment, not me, and manufacturer claims "brisk new vehicle sales", which gets printed.

    See my point?



    I caught that line you bolded but then realized that the article mostly undercuts both you and Jordan's arguments (incentives are killing what little profit margins exist, thus the investing angle of the auto industry is worrisome), plus there's no source for the "brisk sales" comment.
    From your iStock article:

    We can see evidence of this by comparing the auto manufacturers account receivables (ARs) growth against sales growth
    Umm, no you can't. International account receivables and sales are not US sales and sales pace. Irrelevant data is irrelevant.

  5. #154

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    It's not my article! lol

    You and zippy are now arguing against each other but you don't realize it yet.

    hehe
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  6. #155

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    From your iStock article:



    Umm, no you can't. International account receivables and sales are not US sales and sales pace. Irrelevant data is irrelevant.
    Sure you can.

    Obviously the declining European sales are a result of a weak American market. /s
    Last edited by LibertyIn08; 12-06-2012 at 08:08 AM.

  7. #156

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tod View Post
    So are you saying that the Keynesians' policies are good, or that the economy is improving despite their policies?

    Is the condition of the economy more dependent upon the amount of faith in it than on monetary and legislative policy?
    The economy is getting better because it is the natural course of things. It will continue to improve, very slowly, over time, regardless of what immediate actions our government takes, so long as a total collapse is avoided (which it will be, at all costs).

    We are not going out on a limb by saying the auto market is not as bad as it was several years ago. During that time of fear and panic, auto sales were horrendous. Predictably, things are a bit better now.

  8. #157

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Wow. So much for "If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public."

    Well, since globalism, consumerism and socialism is the obvious panacea, I'm just waiting for the notion that no American should be denied the basic fundamental right to own a new car, and a "No American Driver Left Behind" program, where the government steps in and subsidizes the loans once the lenders back off from scraping the rest of the bottom of the barrel, and find themselves running out of lending courage gas. Top that with a provision similar to student loans -- that government subsidized car loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy -- and the sky's the limit! Everything should go swimmingly after that.
    Dude, who are you debating right now? What are you talking about? Lighten up, Francis.

  9. #158

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingNothing View Post
    The economy is getting better because it is the natural course of things. It will continue to improve, very slowly, over time, regardless of what immediate actions our government takes, so long as a total collapse is avoided (which it will be, at all costs).

    We are not going out on a limb by saying the auto market is not as bad as it was several years ago. During that time of fear and panic, auto sales were horrendous. Predictably, things are a bit better now.
    As I said before, the auto industry is cyclic. Any banner year in the past will have a directly corresponding year or two in the future when those cars first reach "end of loan or $60mo" and then 100K miles. At 100K the cars fall off the chart with devaluation, warranty's long expired etc so prior to that is when the rest of the people trade in.

    So what the current trend says is that 5 years ago was a banner year for car sales "and it was". It was the absolute peak of the mortgage bubble. People making $40K a year had homes that tripled in value over the previous couple of years. The whole darn state of California was rolling in money and buying new cars from real estate sales profits and refinancing money out to spend.

    2007 to 2012 puts the average car at 75k miles and has been off the 36K bumper to bumper warranty for about 35K miles and is completely off the 60K miles powertrain. The first $1400 computer chip failure these people are running back for a warranty situation again. Most people budget much better with a payment and warranty than having to cough up $1000 at any given moment. They simply don't have a couple thousand laying around and putting it on a credit card at 19% gets old fast.

    The rest of the rush is from the 2005 and 2006 buyers who are now ready to hit 100K miles and faced with taking a massive devaluation for trade in value so they are moving forward with new purchases. They are already putting money into their cars and dealing with breaking down etc while driving a car that does not represent the rest of those in their job and income class (stupid I know).

    So we have a huge Tsunami hitting the 2012 and 2013 car sales from a massive economy boom from 2005 to 2007. This has NOTHING to do with an economy getting better. There are no unemployment numbers plummeting and people getting raises or moved up the ladder with promotions etc. There are no home values moving up enough for people to take money out of their homes for new cars etc. There are no new manufacturing plants opening up.

    I read that 73% of all the jobs created in the last 5 months are government jobs. They are borrowing to promote employment to keep unemployment rates artificially low. We now have over 50 MILLION on food stamps alone (borrowing). If we took away the EBT cards and made them all shop at a couple government stores you would see lines for miles of people broke and unable to support their families. They are hiding that. The entire stockmarket is propped up on FED infusions into the banks/investment houses with 0% unsecured loan money created out of thin air.

    I do not know how anyone could see this economy "turning around" and moving forward. The only predictable thing is "As long as you keep doing the same thing, you will get the same results". There have been ZERO major changes to our economy.

    http://cnsnews.com/news/article/73-n...are-government
    Last edited by adams101; 12-07-2012 at 08:09 PM.

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