November Car Sales Could Hit Pace Not Seen Since 2008

[Qdog]

You're repeating datapoints I've already debunked. The uptrend in car sales has little to do with natural disasters, dude. I've already said you should look at October sales and see how October sales were actually lower because of the storm. No one thinks "hey, a hurricane is coming, this is a great time to buy a car!"

Americans are confident in economic recovery, and as such they are buying a car. I know this doesn't fit your ideal scenario - a poorly performing economy and weak consumer - but reality is that consumer confidence is at a four year high (discussed in another thread) and car sales are booming. Get with the times.



Total inventory is useless. Days inventory is more important. Compare that chart to the change in car sales and you'll see why dealerships have more total inventory - it's because they're selling more per day. Research I have on hand says that there is only 13 days more inventory on the lots today than this time last year for all Big 3 automakers, and 15 days more inventory for all automakers on American lots. Days inventory is a derivative of the sales pace. Given that the trajectory is up, I'm not surprised to see that there is more total inventory, as well as more days of inventory (which is calculated against the last month's sales pace, not future projections.) When sales come in at automakers expectations, there will be no inventory build at all.

There are 73 days of inventory for all cars and light trucks on American lots. That's hardly a lot of supply. Also, seeing as sales are increasing fairly regularly, we should only expect more inventory on the lots ahead of stronger automotive demand.



Your comment reflects inability to engage in critical thinking and honest, real discussion about the state of auto sales.

Have you not considered cach for clunkers depleting the supply of used cars, and driving demand for new cars?

[BamaAla]

Says a guy who's already driving my Grandma's car.



THere is literally no reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer.

Fuck you and your opinion. What the hell is a G37? Sounds like a pussy car. Heated seats? Mp3 player? Give me something that has actual bass, thank you. I doubt it has any real style - no girl is ever going to walk up ogle that Daddy's car. Unless she's looking for a Daddy, I suppose.

My insurance costs $60 a month. I can buy a brand new car with what I save there alone. You're just participating in planned obsolescence driven to consumers, spending lots of money for crap that nobody actually needs, but you consider yourself intellectually superior. Limousine liberal bullshit.

Navigation system? Big Brother thanks you for your participation.

Again, there is literally no legitimate reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer. But that's what you opened with? Apparently Inifniti drivers are assholes. But I actually already knew that. (I did have to look up a "G37" - that explained it).

Agree on the Euro ride point. You might see one or two cars a day that aren't econo-boxes in most major European cities...and just try and spot a truck.

A G37 is a car intended for spoiled suburban late teen early 20s females.

Muscle cars suck, sorry. I'm a pony car guy; I've never wanted to drive a land yacht!

[MozoVote]

the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play.

That is sad. The whole point of paying off an auto loan is to enjoy some use of the car WITHOUT any more payments for a while.

I've bought two new cars in my whole life. Paid them off within a year (as quickly as possible) and drove several years without payments.

[devil21]

You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?

Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.

[KingNothing]

What people don't realize about auto sales is they DON'T follow the economy in the direct sense nor can they "build them and they will come" with manufacturers. They follow 5 year patterns of buying because the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play. The year 2007 was the most profitable year in many decades so a boatload of people upgraded their cars to new ones.

Also 2006 and 2005 were also booming years which are still contributing. The federal government dribbled this auto buying into 2008 with the "cash for clunkers" bailout of the auto industry. The current 0% interest rates to the lending industry are also propping up the industry.

This means 2012 was a shoo-in despite the economy as is part of 2013. Not that many people are going to "drive it until the wheels fall off" and many have changed from a 2007 luxury gas guzzler to a more economic solution. Many are getting out of these expensive gas guzzlers that made sense in a booming economy with cheaper gas.

I would not say the current car industry is in any way a reflection of a positive or healthy economy. In the same sense if the economy and currency crashed with unemployment doubling there would still be a rush of people getting out of more expensive cars into cheaper ones. Half the country would be rushing to downgrade their autos and debt is not a sign of a healthy economy.

Conversely later in 2013 and in 2014 even if the economy kicked into gear it could be flat sales for autos because the 5 year cycle is not reset. I also look for interest rates to rise by 2014 further damaging auto sales.

Your entire premise begs the question. Your reasoning is circular. Basically you're saying that people buy cars every five years because people bought cars five years ago. Do you have any evidence to suggest that this purchasing cycle actually exists?

[tod evans]

Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....

[ronpaulfollower999]

Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....

Actually, I've been thinking about that lately. Normally I see a lot of new cars on the roads, lately, hardly any. A good chunk of cars are old worn out clunkers.

[angelatc]

Muscle cars suck, sorry. I'm a pony car guy; I've never wanted to drive a land yacht!

I've driven everything from a Ford Escort to a Ford E-150. I can't imagine ever going back to a little car. Can't see! But the one thing that's important here is that I don't drive much. I put 6,000 miles a year on my cars until the hubby starts borrowing it. The gas savings of a small car is huge in percentages, but dollar-wise, it's negligible for me.

If I had to drive to work and back every day, I'd certainly be looking for something that was more economical. But I would hate it.

[tod evans]

If I had to drive to work and back every day, I'd certainly be looking for something that was more economical. But I would hate it.

50+mpg and it'll only appreciate in value..........and it's fun!

[devil21]

Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....

There you go being all "anecdotal" (lol).

Used cars are selling very well and are in high demand according to numerous reports. I'm not seeing much in the way of new cars anywhere in my large city and my city is the 2nd largest banking city in the US. Can't remember the last time I saw a temporary tag on a new car...