Page 5 of 6 FirstFirst ... 3456 LastLast
Results 121 to 150 of 158

Thread: November Car Sales Could Hit Pace Not Seen Since 2008

  1. #121

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Yeah, too bad he won't answer my question, which makes all the difference. It's interesting to me because even zippy's article posted above doesn't actually state whether these sales figures are based on dealer-to-public sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Contractually, dealers are required to take (and "buy") pretty much whatever the factory sends them. Then the manufacturers can claim record sales even while those same cars are still sitting on the dealership lot unsold.

    When you see sales numbers, they're typically factory-to-dealer. You can add context to those numbers by checking dealership inventory numbers and the average time on lot for new cars at dealerships.

    I don't have the numbers handy, but I've heard that the average time a car spends on the lot has been falling.



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #122

    Default

    Then it's really not "sales" in the sense that it's an indicator of economic improvement for the public as a whole and therefore is a misleading metric.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  4. #123

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Then it's really not "sales" in the sense that it's an indicator of economic improvement for the public as a whole and therefore is a misleading metric.
    Except it isn't because the days of inventory isn't changing dramatically up or down from seasonal trends. Days inventory is up like...13 days from last year, which given the upward trajectory in car sales isn't that earth shattering. Also, this year the automotive industry had quite a few refreshes in their models.

    Finally, inventories start building up during this part of the year in anticipation of higher sales in the first and second quarter. So, no, this economic indicator is not at all misleading, it's just pointing to a reality that you and countless others are unwilling to accept.

  5. #124

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    So, no, this economic indicator is not at all misleading, it's just pointing to a reality an interpretation of reality on my part that you and countless others are unwilling to accept.
    Fixed it for you.

  6. #125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    Except it isn't because the days of inventory isn't changing dramatically up or down from seasonal trends. Days inventory is up like...13 days from last year, which given the upward trajectory in car sales isn't that earth shattering. Also, this year the automotive industry had quite a few refreshes in their models.
    Still waiting for the proof of an "upward trajectory" and proof of these inventory figures you're claiming.

    Finally, inventories start building up during this part of the year in anticipation of higher sales in the first and second quarter. So, no, this economic indicator is not at all misleading, it's just pointing to a reality that you and countless others are unwilling to accept.
    The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  7. #126
    Member Zippyjuan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Out Of This World
    Posts
    20,140

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Still waiting for the proof of an "upward trajectory" and proof of these inventory figures you're claiming.



    The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".
    Any links to show that "car sales" figures are sales TO dealers and not sales BY dealers? Figures on dealer inventories? Thanks.

    This chart says it is "sales in retail market"- that would seem to be cars sold BY dealers- sales TO dealers would be the wholesale market (and it seems to also show "upward trajectory").
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...autosales.html
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-04-2012 at 07:08 PM.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.

  8. #127

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Any links to show that "car sales" figures are sales TO dealers and not sales BY dealers? Figures on dealer inventories? Thanks.
    I didn't post the article so it's not my job to prove a negative.

    This chart says it is "sales in retail market"- that would seem to be cars sold BY dealers- sales TO dealers would be the wholesale market (and it seems to also show "upward trajectory").
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...autosales.html
    That's the problem. "Seem to be" isn't a metric.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  9. #128

    Default

    http://blog.truecar.com/2012/11/27/n...2008-at-15-2m/

    Chrysler and Ford Have Lowest Incentive Spend Since January 2003 and September 2002, Respectively
    Incentive costs YoY in line with inflation.

    November 2011 Inventory [Average Days to Sale]
    November, 2010 - 53 Days
    October, 2011 - 50 Days
    November, 2011 - 48 Days

    Source: http://www.truecar.com/static/refere...er_2011_v2.pdf

    Average Days in Inventory
    Nov-11 47 Days
    Oct-12 54 Days
    Nov-12 54 Days

    Source: http://blog.truecar.com/2012/11/19/n...cle-inventory/

    Almost all of that [very marginal, historically] increase in days can be linked to one manufacturer: General Motors. [http://jalopnik.com/5965170/how-will...-pickup-trucks as an illustration]

  10. #129
    Member Zippyjuan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Out Of This World
    Posts
    20,140

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    I didn't post the article so it's not my job to prove a negative.



    That's the problem. "Seem to be" isn't a metric.
    You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.

  11. #130

    Default

    What people don't realize about auto sales is they DON'T follow the economy in the direct sense nor can they "build them and they will come" with manufacturers. They follow 5 year patterns of buying because the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play. The year 2007 was the most profitable year in many decades so a boatload of people upgraded their cars to new ones.

    Also 2006 and 2005 were also booming years which are still contributing. The federal government dribbled this auto buying into 2008 with the "cash for clunkers" bailout of the auto industry. The current 0% interest rates to the lending industry are also propping up the industry.

    This means 2012 was a shoo-in despite the economy as is part of 2013. Not that many people are going to "drive it until the wheels fall off" and many have changed from a 2007 luxury gas guzzler to a more economic solution. Many are getting out of these expensive gas guzzlers that made sense in a booming economy with cheaper gas.

    I would not say the current car industry is in any way a reflection of a positive or healthy economy. In the same sense if the economy and currency crashed with unemployment doubling there would still be a rush of people getting out of more expensive cars into cheaper ones. Half the country would be rushing to downgrade their autos and debt is not a sign of a healthy economy.

    Conversely later in 2013 and in 2014 even if the economy kicked into gear it could be flat sales for autos because the 5 year cycle is not reset. I also look for interest rates to rise by 2014 further damaging auto sales.
    Last edited by adams101; 12-04-2012 at 08:28 PM.

  12. #131

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    You're repeating datapoints I've already debunked. The uptrend in car sales has little to do with natural disasters, dude. I've already said you should look at October sales and see how October sales were actually lower because of the storm. No one thinks "hey, a hurricane is coming, this is a great time to buy a car!"

    Americans are confident in economic recovery, and as such they are buying a car. I know this doesn't fit your ideal scenario - a poorly performing economy and weak consumer - but reality is that consumer confidence is at a four year high (discussed in another thread) and car sales are booming. Get with the times.



    Total inventory is useless. Days inventory is more important. Compare that chart to the change in car sales and you'll see why dealerships have more total inventory - it's because they're selling more per day. Research I have on hand says that there is only 13 days more inventory on the lots today than this time last year for all Big 3 automakers, and 15 days more inventory for all automakers on American lots. Days inventory is a derivative of the sales pace. Given that the trajectory is up, I'm not surprised to see that there is more total inventory, as well as more days of inventory (which is calculated against the last month's sales pace, not future projections.) When sales come in at automakers expectations, there will be no inventory build at all.

    There are 73 days of inventory for all cars and light trucks on American lots. That's hardly a lot of supply. Also, seeing as sales are increasing fairly regularly, we should only expect more inventory on the lots ahead of stronger automotive demand.



    Your comment reflects inability to engage in critical thinking and honest, real discussion about the state of auto sales.
    Have you not considered cach for clunkers depleting the supply of used cars, and driving demand for new cars?

  13. #132

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Says a guy who's already driving my Grandma's car.



    THere is literally no reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer.

    Fuck you and your opinion. What the hell is a G37? Sounds like a pussy car. Heated seats? Mp3 player? Give me something that has actual bass, thank you. I doubt it has any real style - no girl is ever going to walk up ogle that Daddy's car. Unless she's looking for a Daddy, I suppose.

    My insurance costs $60 a month. I can buy a brand new car with what I save there alone. You're just participating in planned obsolescence driven to consumers, spending lots of money for crap that nobody actually needs, but you consider yourself intellectually superior. Limousine liberal bullshit.

    Navigation system? Big Brother thanks you for your participation.

    Again, there is literally no legitimate reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer. But that's what you opened with? Apparently Inifniti drivers are assholes. But I actually already knew that. (I did have to look up a "G37" - that explained it).

    Agree on the Euro ride point. You might see one or two cars a day that aren't econo-boxes in most major European cities...and just try and spot a truck.

    A G37 is a car intended for spoiled suburban late teen early 20s females.

    Muscle cars suck, sorry. I'm a pony car guy; I've never wanted to drive a land yacht!
    ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  14. #133

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by adams101 View Post
    the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play.
    That is sad. The whole point of paying off an auto loan is to enjoy some use of the car WITHOUT any more payments for a while.

    I've bought two new cars in my whole life. Paid them off within a year (as quickly as possible) and drove several years without payments.
    Last edited by MozoVote; 12-04-2012 at 09:16 PM.

  15. #134

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?
    Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  16. #135

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by adams101 View Post
    What people don't realize about auto sales is they DON'T follow the economy in the direct sense nor can they "build them and they will come" with manufacturers. They follow 5 year patterns of buying because the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play. The year 2007 was the most profitable year in many decades so a boatload of people upgraded their cars to new ones.

    Also 2006 and 2005 were also booming years which are still contributing. The federal government dribbled this auto buying into 2008 with the "cash for clunkers" bailout of the auto industry. The current 0% interest rates to the lending industry are also propping up the industry.

    This means 2012 was a shoo-in despite the economy as is part of 2013. Not that many people are going to "drive it until the wheels fall off" and many have changed from a 2007 luxury gas guzzler to a more economic solution. Many are getting out of these expensive gas guzzlers that made sense in a booming economy with cheaper gas.

    I would not say the current car industry is in any way a reflection of a positive or healthy economy. In the same sense if the economy and currency crashed with unemployment doubling there would still be a rush of people getting out of more expensive cars into cheaper ones. Half the country would be rushing to downgrade their autos and debt is not a sign of a healthy economy.

    Conversely later in 2013 and in 2014 even if the economy kicked into gear it could be flat sales for autos because the 5 year cycle is not reset. I also look for interest rates to rise by 2014 further damaging auto sales.
    Your entire premise begs the question. Your reasoning is circular. Basically you're saying that people buy cars every five years because people bought cars five years ago. Do you have any evidence to suggest that this purchasing cycle actually exists?
    Last edited by KingNothing; 12-05-2012 at 06:51 AM.

  17. #136

    Default

    Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

    I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....

  18. #137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

    I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....
    Actually, I've been thinking about that lately. Normally I see a lot of new cars on the roads, lately, hardly any. A good chunk of cars are old worn out clunkers.
    My 2016 prediction: Hillary Clinton will NOT run for president.

    Rand Paul 2016

  19. #138

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BamaAla View Post

    Muscle cars suck, sorry. I'm a pony car guy; I've never wanted to drive a land yacht!
    I've driven everything from a Ford Escort to a Ford E-150. I can't imagine ever going back to a little car. Can't see! But the one thing that's important here is that I don't drive much. I put 6,000 miles a year on my cars until the hubby starts borrowing it. The gas savings of a small car is huge in percentages, but dollar-wise, it's negligible for me.

    If I had to drive to work and back every day, I'd certainly be looking for something that was more economical. But I would hate it.
    .[QUOTE]"Every great new thought was opposed. Every great new invention was denounced. The first motor was considered foolish. The airplane was considered impossible. The power loom was considered vicious. Anesthesia was considered sinful. But the men of unborrowed vision went ahead. They fought, they suffered and they paid. But they won." - Ayn Rand, The Fountainhead[/QUOTE]
    ..
    .

    I blog at Red State Eclectic, and I tweet here,.

  20. #139

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    If I had to drive to work and back every day, I'd certainly be looking for something that was more economical. But I would hate it.
    50+mpg and it'll only appreciate in value..........and it's fun!


  21. #140

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tod evans View Post
    Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

    I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....
    There you go being all "anecdotal" (lol).

    Used cars are selling very well and are in high demand according to numerous reports. I'm not seeing much in the way of new cars anywhere in my large city and my city is the 2nd largest banking city in the US. Can't remember the last time I saw a temporary tag on a new car...
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    Internet shills exposed: (Yes, there are plenty on RPF)
    http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2012/10/...eyre-real.html

    Why most RPF members are against the US involvement with Israel explained by Mini-Me:
    http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=218093
    No anti-semitism, just logic.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks Fishing Boat Rentals

  22. #141

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.
    FFS, you can make an inference from the data on days of inventory that the cars are selling. If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public.

  23. #142
    Member Zippyjuan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Out Of This World
    Posts
    20,140

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post

    Originally Posted by Zippyjuan

    You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?
    Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.
    I guess you don't read your own posts. That's OK- I can help you. Let's go back and read one. See post #125.
    The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-05-2012 at 01:10 PM.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.

  24. #143

    Default

    Confirmed channel stuffing and the lame street media is reporting it now.
    From Zerohedge about new WSJ article on the big 3.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...uffing-scandal

    WSJ link
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

  25. #144

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Trimbeaux View Post
    Confirmed channel stuffing and the lame street media is reporting it now.
    From Zerohedge about new WSJ article on the big 3.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...uffing-scandal

    WSJ link
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj
    Again, one firm does not the market make. I already posted actual industry wide numbers a few pages back and the days-to-sale number has been relatively flat over the past year.

  26. #145

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Trimbeaux View Post
    Confirmed channel stuffing and the lame street media is reporting it now.
    From Zerohedge about new WSJ article on the big 3.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...uffing-scandal

    WSJ link
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj



    Wow. So much for "If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public."

    Well, since globalism, consumerism and socialism is the obvious panacea, I'm just waiting for the notion that no American should be denied the basic fundamental right to own a new car, and a "No American Driver Left Behind" program, where the government steps in and subsidizes the loans once the lenders back off from scraping the rest of the bottom of the barrel, and find themselves running out of lending courage gas. Top that with a provision similar to student loans -- that government subsidized car loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy -- and the sky's the limit! Everything should go swimmingly after that.
    Last edited by Steven Douglas; 12-05-2012 at 01:50 PM.

  27. #146

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post


    Wow. So much for "If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public."

    Well, since globalism, consumerism and socialism is the obvious panacea, I'm just waiting for the notion that no American should be denied the basic fundamental right to own a new car, and a "No American Driver Left Behind" program, where the government steps in and subsidizes the loans once the lenders back off from scraping the rest of the bottom of the barrel, and find themselves running out of lending courage gas. Top that with a provision similar to student loans -- that government subsidized car loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy -- and the sky's the limit! Everything should go swimmingly after that.
    Wow, if only people would read the whole thread before posting.

    I've already shown that days inventory is mostly unchanged. And LibertyIn08 has already pointed out that GM's inventory levels are the highest of any car company, and well above the average.

    P.S. I like how that chart starts with the bottom in car sales on an annualized basis. It's designed to be misleading, given that it shows inventory without respect to annual sales. Obviously total inventories will be higher when cars are selling faster. I wonder if you guys would be surprised to learn that Walmart carries more inventory than a convenience store.
    Last edited by Jordan; 12-05-2012 at 02:09 PM.

  28. #147
    Member Zippyjuan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Out Of This World
    Posts
    20,140

    Default

    Looks like BOTH sales and inventories are up. That does not necessarily mean that the sales figures come from what is sold to dealers and not sales from dealers to customers. Say I had 100 cars and sold 50. End of month I have 50 cars left. I order 100 more but sell 60. My inventory is now 90 at the end of month which is higher but my sales also increased.

    Check this out:
    http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance...to-start-dying

    The Auto sector graduated from our emerging to our mature bull list in this week's sector performance review. According to Reuters, car sales hit a five-year high in November stepping in the gas by rising 15% to 1.14 million vehicles.

    With news like that, it's no wonder that auto sector is catching the eye of investors. Many car industry experts believe the trend will carry into 2013. However, troubling times could be ahead for automakers as incentives and a troubling rise in inventories could hit profits hard in in 2013.

    This morning, the Wall Street Journal reported, "Detroit auto makers are piling up big stocks of passenger cars at dealers despite brisk new-vehicle sales in the U.S.—a problem that executives vowed to avoid since their painful downturn three years ago." The more things change, the more they stay the same.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.

  29. #148
    "Sorry, guys, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."
    "What is this, a home owner's association? Why the need to try and control other people's behavior?"



  30. #149

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tod View Post
    There sure has been a spate of optimistic news lately about the US economy:

    Anyone care to speculate why that is?
    The economy is actually improving, that's why.

  31. #150

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    The economy is actually improving, that's why.
    So are you saying that the Keynesians' policies are good, or that the economy is improving despite their policies?

    Is the condition of the economy more dependent upon the amount of faith in it than on monetary and legislative policy?
    "Sorry, guys, the rebellion is off. We couldn't get a rebellion permit."
    "What is this, a home owner's association? Why the need to try and control other people's behavior?"



Page 5 of 6 FirstFirst ... 3456 LastLast




« Previous Thread | Next Thread »


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •