More Americans than ever Plan to Buy a Home in the next 6 Months

[Steven Douglas]

SOURCE
Housing recovery shaky despite uptick in prices
....
Patrick Newport, U.S. analyst for IHS Global Insight, says a combination of low interest rates, declining inventory and investor activity are behind the price increases. He expects prices to continue rising, in line with inflation, over the next five years -- with some dips in between.
....
"These indexes are seasonal," Newport noted in a press release. "Unless demand picks up sharply, we are likely to see the not-seasonally adjusted indexes drop for a few months starting next month. Given low and declining inventories, the seasonally adjusted indexes should continue moving up."
...
According to analysts at financial services and research firm Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, falling off the fiscal cliff would impact global banks and the 10-year Treasury, halting both refinancing and new mortgage lending activity. Consumers could lose jobs, causing a decline in spending, and confidence in the economy would almost certainly go down the tubes -- all bad news for a recovery that's teetering on the edge.

Sorry, but this is a parade that I'm more than pleased to rain on. The Ponzi economy we're all trapped in was designed to die, and needs to die. It will happen on someone's watch no matter what happens. I'd rather it be on me than on my children or theirs. It would be truly ugly now, or even uglier and deadlier later, but nothing even has a chance of getting truly better until the Keynesian madness finally comes to its well-deserved ends.


I truly wish that Keynes was here to witness how his "emergency" methadone solution managed to turn into a full-scale global heroine trafficking operation.

[Arklatex]

A major negative to ownership is TAXES - they do nothing but rise. Every year.

[oyarde]

That is correct , they will raise assessments as needed to raise revenue.

[mad cow]

LOL dead cat.

[RickyJ]

These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.

[devil21]

Green shoots!

However....

Ive been looking at real estate some but for reasons other than an "improving economy". Definitely in no rush and it has to be the right situation in practically all areas. Planning to buy something isn't a statistic that I consider valuable.

[Bossobass]

"... Americans... plan to BUY a home..."

That's the problem right there.

It should read : "... Americans... plan to PAY DOUBLE THE PURCHASE PRICE of a home while the bank holds the deed and demands they also purchase insurance from their sister company which plans to increase rates by 10X the published rate of inflation and while the local government raises their rent every 3 years. Those Americans also promise to maintain and improve the home they don't own while the Fed Gov considers eliminating the mortgage interest deduction..."

[angelatc]

"... Americans... plan to BUY a home..."

That's the problem right there.

It should read : "... Americans... plan to PAY DOUBLE THE PURCHASE PRICE of a home while the bank holds the deed and demands they also purchase insurance from their sister company which plans to increase rates by 10X the published rate of inflation and while the local government raises their rent every 3 years. Those Americans also promise to maintain and improve the home they don't own while the Fed Gov considers eliminating the mortgage interest deduction..."

It just dawned on me. They'll take away the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners, but rental property owners will still write it off as an expense. Again, we're moving to a rental society. Land barons will be the new corporate power brokers.

[AuH20]

These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.

Correct. Any type of purchase near a dying metropolis is a poor investment, because of the uncertain cost variables that will likely choke your finances like vines. If I was to buy, I would make sure that this property was in a low regulatory and property tax zone with plenty of ample acrage.

[PaulConventionWV]

Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

(Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.



Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.



See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

• Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
• Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
• ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
• Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
• Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
• Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm

And in 2008?

• Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
• HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
• Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
• Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
• How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness

And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?



Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):



Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!

What effect does this have on housing prices? Could this positive reinforcement from the Conference Board and the media be creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, or are they simply lying through their teeth? I suppose it could be both, but overall, I'm wondering what you think the net direction is for housing prices.