More Americans than ever Plan to Buy a Home in the next 6 Months

[Jordan]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-p...3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Slowing foreclosures, improving job data, and pent up demand boost housing prices for the biggest gain since 2010.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...four-year-high

6.9% of Americans plan to buy a home in the next six months, the highest reading on record since 1964 when consumer confidence was first measured. Confidence reaches a four year high.

[Steven Douglas]

Estimates for consumer confidence ranged from 65 to 79.1 in the Bloomberg survey of 75 economists.

Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

(Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.

The Demand Institute illuminates how consumer demand is evolving around the world. We are on a mission to strengthen the growth and vitality of the global economy by helping senior leadership teams align their investments to where consumer demand is headed across industries, countries and markets.

Why we created The Demand Institute
Consumer demand—the desire to purchase, coupled with the money to act on that desire—is the primary engine that drives the world economy.

Over the long-term, the work of the Demand Institute can help lead the way to driving growth and prosperity across our global economy. In particular, the world will become more productive when we collectively find new ways to better align demand and supply.

Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.

The Conference Board's Bart Van Ark: Income Inequality Hurts Economy

A major business membership group warns that increasing income inequality in the United States is stifling economic growth.

See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

• Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
• Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
• ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
• Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
• Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
• Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm

And in 2008?

• Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
• HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
• Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
• Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
• How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness

And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?

A Crisis of Confidence
12 January, 2009 | Executive Action Report
Despite ongoing concerns that the current economic crisis could end up resembling The Great Depression, data so far shows that this recession is in far better shape than the circumstances of 1929.

Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):

The new report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, predicts that average home prices will increase by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012. By 2014, home prices will increase by as much as 2.5 percent. From 2015 to 2017, the study projects annual increases between 3 and 4 percent. This recovery will not be uniform across the country, and the strongest markets could capture average gains of 5 percent or more in the coming years.

“In these initial years, the prime driver of recovery won’t be new home construction, but rather demand for rental properties,” said Louise Keely, Chief Research Officer at The Demand Institute and a co-author of the report. “This is a remarkable change from previous recoveries. It is a measure of just how severe the Great Recession has been (It's not 2009 any more. They finally acknowledge that things are, well, shitty. But ROSY, and LOOKING UP!) that such a wide swath of Americans had to delay, scale back, or put off entirely their dreams of home ownership.”

“In the long-term, we don’t expect home ownership rates to change,” said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board and co-author of the report. “Over 80 percent of Americans in recent surveys still agree that buying a home is the best long-term investment they can make. What will be intriguing to watch is how their aspirations around home ownership are affected by this period of extended austerity.”

Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!

[Jordan]

Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

(Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.



Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.



See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

• Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
• Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
• ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
• Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
• Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
• Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm

And in 2008?

• Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
• HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
• Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
• Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
• How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness

And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?



Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):



Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!

All that work and all you had to do was Google how the Consumer Confidence Index works:

The CCI is based on the data from a monthly survey of 5000 US households. The data is calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country’s nine census regions. The survey consists of five questions on the following topics: i) current business conditions, ii) business conditions for the next six months, iii) current employment conditions, iv) employment conditions for the next six months, v) total family income for the next six months. After all surveys are collected, each question’s positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The resulting relative value is then used as an “index value” and compared against each respective monthly value for 1985. That year was chosen as a benchmark year because it was neither a peak nor trough in the business cycle. The index values for all five questions are averaged together to produce the CCI. The average of index values for questions i and iii form the Present Situation Index, and the average of index values for questions ii, iv and v form the Expectations Index.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_confidence

Please don't be so ignorant about economic data and forecasts. The Conference Board surveys 5000 people then calculates the index value as explained above. Meanwhile, economists forecast what they think the reading will be. That little bite-sized piece that you used to say too much about nothing simply said that the median estimates of the actual reading from 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg came to 73. The actual reading achieved by surveying 5000 ordinary Americans came out to 73.7, beating consensus.

Also, other well respected surveys agree. Take the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which is now at a 5 year high.

[thoughtomator]

incoming disappointments

[Danke]

[Steven Douglas]

All that work and all you had to do was Google how the Consumer Confidence Index works:

Why, when it was so much more fun to be a Toto, draw back the curtain to show 75 73 wrinkled butts, poke fun at them, and let everyone here draw their own conclusions?

Also, other well respected surveys agree.

And, as well, I'm sure, in ways that No True Scotsman would dispute.

[AuH20]

I have substantial liquid cash at my disposal and there is no way I am buying a home, given the carnage I see. I guess that's why we derisively refer to them as sheep. I've never seen a more deluded group of people in my life. Two years from now, strategic defaults will be the norm after this frenzy of sales.

[oyarde]

A bunch of them will lose jobs between Jan and July ...

[angelatc]

I have substantial liquid cash at my disposal and there is no way I am buying a home, given the carnage I see. I guess that's why we derisively refer to them as sheep. I've never seen a more deluded group of people in my life. Two years from now, strategic defaults will be the norm after this frenzy of sales.

If I had money, I'd be buying homes. We're moving away from an ownership society, and it will be better to be an owner rather than a renter.

[Brian4Liberty]

"Lazy Americans just watch tv while we work". - non-American in America.