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Thread: More Americans than ever Plan to Buy a Home in the next 6 Months

  1. #1

    Default More Americans than ever Plan to Buy a Home in the next 6 Months

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-p...3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

    Slowing foreclosures, improving job data, and pent up demand boost housing prices for the biggest gain since 2010.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...four-year-high

    6.9% of Americans plan to buy a home in the next six months, the highest reading on record since 1964 when consumer confidence was first measured. Confidence reaches a four year high.
    Last edited by Jordan; 11-27-2012 at 01:16 PM.



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  3. #2

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    Estimates for consumer confidence ranged from 65 to 79.1 in the Bloomberg survey of 75 economists.
    Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

    (Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

    If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.

    The Demand Institute illuminates how consumer demand is evolving around the world. We are on a mission to strengthen the growth and vitality of the global economy by helping senior leadership teams align their investments to where consumer demand is headed across industries, countries and markets.

    Why we created The Demand Institute
    Consumer demand—the desire to purchase, coupled with the money to act on that desire—is the primary engine that drives the world economy.

    Over the long-term, the work of the Demand Institute can help lead the way to driving growth and prosperity across our global economy. In particular, the world will become more productive when we collectively find new ways to better align demand and supply.
    Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.

    The Conference Board's Bart Van Ark: Income Inequality Hurts Economy

    A major business membership group warns that increasing income inequality in the United States is stifling economic growth.
    See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

    And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

    • Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
    • Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
    • ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
    • Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
    • Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
    • Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm



    And in 2008?


    • Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
    • HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
    • Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
    • Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
    • How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness



    And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?

    A Crisis of Confidence
    12 January, 2009 | Executive Action Report
    Despite ongoing concerns that the current economic crisis could end up resembling The Great Depression, data so far shows that this recession is in far better shape than the circumstances of 1929.
    Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

    The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

    What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

    Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
    Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
    50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
    47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
    45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

    So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):

    The new report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, predicts that average home prices will increase by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012. By 2014, home prices will increase by as much as 2.5 percent. From 2015 to 2017, the study projects annual increases between 3 and 4 percent. This recovery will not be uniform across the country, and the strongest markets could capture average gains of 5 percent or more in the coming years.

    In these initial years, the prime driver of recovery won’t be new home construction, but rather demand for rental properties,” said Louise Keely, Chief Research Officer at The Demand Institute and a co-author of the report. “This is a remarkable change from previous recoveries. It is a measure of just how severe the Great Recession has been (It's not 2009 any more. They finally acknowledge that things are, well, shitty. But ROSY, and LOOKING UP!) that such a wide swath of Americans had to delay, scale back, or put off entirely their dreams of home ownership.”

    In the long-term, we don’t expect home ownership rates to change,” said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board and co-author of the report. “Over 80 percent of Americans in recent surveys still agree that buying a home is the best long-term investment they can make. What will be intriguing to watch is how their aspirations around home ownership are affected by this period of extended austerity.”
    Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!

  4. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

    (Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

    If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.



    Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.



    See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

    And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

    • Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
    • Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
    • ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
    • Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
    • Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
    • Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm



    And in 2008?


    • Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
    • HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
    • Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
    • Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
    • How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness



    And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?



    Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

    The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

    What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

    Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
    Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
    50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
    47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
    45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

    So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):



    Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!
    All that work and all you had to do was Google how the Consumer Confidence Index works:

    The CCI is based on the data from a monthly survey of 5000 US households. The data is calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country’s nine census regions. The survey consists of five questions on the following topics: i) current business conditions, ii) business conditions for the next six months, iii) current employment conditions, iv) employment conditions for the next six months, v) total family income for the next six months. After all surveys are collected, each question’s positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The resulting relative value is then used as an “index value” and compared against each respective monthly value for 1985. That year was chosen as a benchmark year because it was neither a peak nor trough in the business cycle. The index values for all five questions are averaged together to produce the CCI. The average of index values for questions i and iii form the Present Situation Index, and the average of index values for questions ii, iv and v form the Expectations Index.[1]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_confidence

    Please don't be so ignorant about economic data and forecasts. The Conference Board surveys 5000 people then calculates the index value as explained above. Meanwhile, economists forecast what they think the reading will be. That little bite-sized piece that you used to say too much about nothing simply said that the median estimates of the actual reading from 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg came to 73. The actual reading achieved by surveying 5000 ordinary Americans came out to 73.7, beating consensus.

    Also, other well respected surveys agree. Take the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which is now at a 5 year high.
    Last edited by Jordan; 11-27-2012 at 05:59 PM.

  5. #4

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    incoming disappointments
    “If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”

    - SAMUEL ADAMS

  6. #5

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    Quiz: Test Your "Income" Tax IQ!

    Short Income Tax Video

    The Income Tax Is An Excise, And Excise Taxes Are Privilege Taxes

    The Federalist Papers, No. 15:

    Except as to the rule of apportionment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

  7. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jordan View Post
    All that work and all you had to do was Google how the Consumer Confidence Index works:
    Why, when it was so much more fun to be a Toto, draw back the curtain to show 75 73 wrinkled butts, poke fun at them, and let everyone here draw their own conclusions?

    Also, other well respected surveys agree.
    And, as well, I'm sure, in ways that No True Scotsman would dispute.

  8. #7

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    I have substantial liquid cash at my disposal and there is no way I am buying a home, given the carnage I see. I guess that's why we derisively refer to them as sheep. I've never seen a more deluded group of people in my life. Two years from now, strategic defaults will be the norm after this frenzy of sales.
    Last edited by AuH20; 11-27-2012 at 09:45 PM.
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    A bunch of them will lose jobs between Jan and July ...

  10. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    I have substantial liquid cash at my disposal and there is no way I am buying a home, given the carnage I see. I guess that's why we derisively refer to them as sheep. I've never seen a more deluded group of people in my life. Two years from now, strategic defaults will be the norm after this frenzy of sales.
    If I had money, I'd be buying homes. We're moving away from an ownership society, and it will be better to be an owner rather than a renter.
    .[QUOTE]"Every great new thought was opposed. Every great new invention was denounced. The first motor was considered foolish. The airplane was considered impossible. The power loom was considered vicious. Anesthesia was considered sinful. But the men of unborrowed vision went ahead. They fought, they suffered and they paid. But they won." - Ayn Rand, The Fountainhead[/QUOTE]
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  12. #11

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    SOURCE
    Housing recovery shaky despite uptick in prices
    ....
    Patrick Newport, U.S. analyst for IHS Global Insight, says a combination of low interest rates, declining inventory and investor activity are behind the price increases. He expects prices to continue rising, in line with inflation, over the next five years -- with some dips in between.
    ....
    "These indexes are seasonal," Newport noted in a press release. "Unless demand picks up sharply, we are likely to see the not-seasonally adjusted indexes drop for a few months starting next month. Given low and declining inventories, the seasonally adjusted indexes should continue moving up."
    ...
    According to analysts at financial services and research firm Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, falling off the fiscal cliff would impact global banks and the 10-year Treasury, halting both refinancing and new mortgage lending activity. Consumers could lose jobs, causing a decline in spending, and confidence in the economy would almost certainly go down the tubes -- all bad news for a recovery that's teetering on the edge.
    Sorry, but this is a parade that I'm more than pleased to rain on. The Ponzi economy we're all trapped in was designed to die, and needs to die. It will happen on someone's watch no matter what happens. I'd rather it be on me than on my children or theirs. It would be truly ugly now, or even uglier and deadlier later, but nothing even has a chance of getting truly better until the Keynesian madness finally comes to its well-deserved ends.


    I truly wish that Keynes was here to witness how his "emergency" methadone solution managed to turn into a full-scale global heroine trafficking operation.
    Last edited by Steven Douglas; 11-28-2012 at 01:34 AM.

  13. #12

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    A major negative to ownership is TAXES - they do nothing but rise. Every year.

  14. #13
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    That is correct , they will raise assessments as needed to raise revenue.

  15. #14

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    LOL dead cat.

  16. #15

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    These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.

  17. #16

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    Green shoots!

    However....

    Ive been looking at real estate some but for reasons other than an "improving economy". Definitely in no rush and it has to be the right situation in practically all areas. Planning to buy something isn't a statistic that I consider valuable.
    Last edited by devil21; 11-28-2012 at 04:39 AM.
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  18. #17

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    "... Americans... plan to BUY a home..."

    That's the problem right there.

    It should read : "... Americans... plan to PAY DOUBLE THE PURCHASE PRICE of a home while the bank holds the deed and demands they also purchase insurance from their sister company which plans to increase rates by 10X the published rate of inflation and while the local government raises their rent every 3 years. Those Americans also promise to maintain and improve the home they don't own while the Fed Gov considers eliminating the mortgage interest deduction..."

  19. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bossobass View Post
    "... Americans... plan to BUY a home..."

    That's the problem right there.

    It should read : "... Americans... plan to PAY DOUBLE THE PURCHASE PRICE of a home while the bank holds the deed and demands they also purchase insurance from their sister company which plans to increase rates by 10X the published rate of inflation and while the local government raises their rent every 3 years. Those Americans also promise to maintain and improve the home they don't own while the Fed Gov considers eliminating the mortgage interest deduction..."
    It just dawned on me. They'll take away the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners, but rental property owners will still write it off as an expense. Again, we're moving to a rental society. Land barons will be the new corporate power brokers.
    .[QUOTE]"Every great new thought was opposed. Every great new invention was denounced. The first motor was considered foolish. The airplane was considered impossible. The power loom was considered vicious. Anesthesia was considered sinful. But the men of unborrowed vision went ahead. They fought, they suffered and they paid. But they won." - Ayn Rand, The Fountainhead[/QUOTE]
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  20. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.
    Correct. Any type of purchase near a dying metropolis is a poor investment, because of the uncertain cost variables that will likely choke your finances like vines. If I was to buy, I would make sure that this property was in a low regulatory and property tax zone with plenty of ample acrage.
    “There is nothing more painful to me … than to walk down the street and hear footsteps and start thinking about robbery, then look around and see somebody white and feel relieved.” - The Reverend Jesse Jackson

  21. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Yeah, every time I want to know what consumers think, I ask 75 mainstream, liberal Keynesian-spawned economists from The Conference Board. Not to rain on your Hopium Parade, but why go through all this trouble when we could just ask Paul Krugman, or any other aggregate-spending-and-demand-is-the-panacea economist, and they can tell you pretty much anything you wanted to know.

    (Ad Hominem Alert: about to attack the credibility and ulterior motives of The Conference Board)

    If you want to know more about Aggregate Consumer Demand (aka - "How many windows do you need broken? If you tight bastards would just spend a little more, there's nothing we couldn't accomplish!"), you could turn to The Demand Institute (yeah, they call it that!) run by The Conference Board.



    Is there are a more liberal-quoted, political activist propaganda think tank than The Conference Board? HuffPo sure loves to quote it.



    See that? According to The Conference Board, if we just get rid of "income inequality" our economic growth (always with emphasis on growth for the sake of growth) won't be so stifled! Well, duh...

    And where were the heads of the brainiacs on The Conference Board back in 2007? How about a few selections from their list of past publications from that time:

    • Managing for a Carbon-Concerned Future
    • Women are everywhere in corporate America — except on boards. Here's how to change that.
    • ...today's democratized market is no place for top-down, hierarchical thinking.
    • Boomers Are Ready for Nonprofits - But Are Nonprofits Ready for Them?
    • Middle Managers: Engaging and Enrolling the Biggest Roadblock to Diversity and Inclusion
    • Risk and Opportunity in the Gathering Climate Change Storm



    And in 2008?


    • Women's Leadership: Revitalizing Women’s Initiatives
    • HIV/AIDS in the Workplace
    • Weights & Measures: What Employers Should Know about Obesity
    • Europe's Progress in Promoting Work-Life and Diversity in the Workplace
    • How Public-Private Partnerships in Education Can Enhance International Business Competitiveness



    And finally, in 2009, when they finally pulled their head partway out of the Keynesian Sand and got part of the memo?



    Oh, well! Nothing to see here, move along! Let's put our shoulders back to the wheel, and keep those machines turning, folks! Confidence Makes Free, and YES WE CAN!

    The Rasmussen Consumer Index actually measures consumer confidence by actually polling consumers--and is the only one to post results on a daily basis.

    What do Rasmussen polls and articles show?

    Just 16% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
    Just 37% Expect Their Home To Be Worth More in Five Years
    50% Expect Weaker Economy In One Year
    47% Fear Government Won’t Do Enough to Help Economy
    45% Confident In Stability of U.S. Banking Industry

    So what does The Demand Institute/Housing Demand Institute say in its report (PDF)? (emphasis mine):



    Bottom line: No big gains. A few percent here and there, with 5% or more in the coming years, and only from "the strongest markets"? No huge predictions, but anyone who can buy new houses can rent them out to those who lost theirs! BRILLIANT!
    What effect does this have on housing prices? Could this positive reinforcement from the Conference Board and the media be creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, or are they simply lying through their teeth? I suppose it could be both, but overall, I'm wondering what you think the net direction is for housing prices.
    "The greater the number of prescriptions, the more people's sense of personal responsibility dwindles." ~Hans Monderman

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  22. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arklatex View Post
    A major negative to ownership is TAXES - they do nothing but rise. Every year.
    And as a result, rent rises, probably more than taxes.
    "The greater the number of prescriptions, the more people's sense of personal responsibility dwindles." ~Hans Monderman

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  23. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.
    Why is it so important that's it's a damn farm in the middle of nowhere? Why not live on a sizeable plot close to town?
    "The greater the number of prescriptions, the more people's sense of personal responsibility dwindles." ~Hans Monderman

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  24. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    I have substantial liquid cash at my disposal and there is no way I am buying a home, given the carnage I see. I guess that's why we derisively refer to them as sheep. I've never seen a more deluded group of people in my life. Two years from now, strategic defaults will be the norm after this frenzy of sales.
    We'll assess this two years from now.

    Quote Originally Posted by mad cow View Post
    LOL dead cat.
    Helpful commentary.

    Quote Originally Posted by RickyJ View Post
    These must be the Obama houses. I would waste my money on real estate unless it was a farm out in the country, even then I would probably buy silver, gold and guns instead.
    I didn't know the choice was between owning a home and simply living for free elsewhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bossobass View Post
    "... Americans... plan to BUY a home..."

    That's the problem right there.

    It should read : "... Americans... plan to PAY DOUBLE THE PURCHASE PRICE of a home while the bank holds the deed and demands they also purchase insurance from their sister company which plans to increase rates by 10X the published rate of inflation and while the local government raises their rent every 3 years. Those Americans also promise to maintain and improve the home they don't own while the Fed Gov considers eliminating the mortgage interest deduction..."
    Time value of money, dude. Borrowing here is the smartest move one can make.

    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    It just dawned on me. They'll take away the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners, but rental property owners will still write it off as an expense. Again, we're moving to a rental society. Land barons will be the new corporate power brokers.
    I really doubt the mortgage interest deduction will go away any time soon. Too many people have their hands in it - lenders, real estate agents, etc. all want it to stay around for their selfish purposes. If it does go away, though, you have a great point. Interest will always be deductible as a business expense.

  25. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arklatex View Post
    A major negative to ownership is TAXES - they do nothing but rise. Every year.
    Renters are paying the same taxes. They are hidden though- included as part of your rent. If you buy, you lock in your monthly payments and if you pay off the property it goes to zero (aside from the taxes portion). Rents will not go to zero but will likely rise over time as well. Unless you are living off somebody else, you need to pay money for a place to live. Buying gets you something for your money. Renting gets you nothing for your money. You are going to spend it anyways- why not get something in return?

    Figures will be different for everybody but I ran some on my own situation. Renting a unit comparable to the one I purchased would have cost me $1200 a month. I bought at just over $100k in 1999 and just finished paying it off early. If I had rented instead of purchasing, in the time I spent paying it off I would have spent $200,000 in rent and had nothing. Now I have a place still worth over $100k and zero mortgage. Sure I am still paying taxes- a bit over $100 a month which is considerably cheaper than paying $1200 a month in rent. How much are people here spending in rent and how much would you pay in the 15 or 30 years it would take you to pay off the mortgage and what would you have at the end of that time?

    If somebody is thinking about buying and can afford a place, this is really a fantastic time to buy. If- as it seems- prices are at the bottom and rising they will likely only go up and interest rates are historically low and they too will likely go up in the future.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-28-2012 at 12:29 PM.
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  26. #25

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    http://worldnewsresource.com/wells-f...2/nadene-woods

    3.25% in 30 year financing yet the housing market is extremely stagnant. Free money can't resurrect a lifeless corpse. Even a slight jump to 5%, which is inevitable, would send shockwaves through the home ownership market. It remains to be seen how long this smoke and mirrors act can be continued by the Federal Reserve.
    Last edited by AuH20; 11-28-2012 at 01:28 PM.
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    What figures are you looking at to feel that the housing market is "reeling"?
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  28. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    What figures are you looking at to feel that the housing market is "reeling"?
    The shadow inventory which has been intentionally suppressed. And I've seen conservative estimates at 4 million.
    “There is nothing more painful to me … than to walk down the street and hear footsteps and start thinking about robbery, then look around and see somebody white and feel relieved.” - The Reverend Jesse Jackson

  29. #28

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    More about what I was referring to. And this is area is my backyard:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/anoth...ng-soon-2012-5


    We have been told that the rate of mortgage delinquencies has been declining over the last year. Let’s see.

    In the NYC metro area, the banks drastically cut back foreclosing on properties in the spring of 2009 and have never changed their policy. This has nothing to do with the robo-signing scandal which occurred 18 months later.

    Through sheer persistence, I obtained accurate statistics on serious delinquencies from the New York State Division of Banking. Let me explain.

    In late 2009, the NYS legislature passed a law requiring all servicing banks in the state to send a “pre-foreclosure” notice to all delinquent owner occupants. It warned them of possible foreclosure and explained steps they could take to prevent this. These servicing banks were also required to report to the Banking Division all notices that were sent.

    The Division published preliminary figures in October 2010 but has never updated these numbers. Here is what I learned.

    Through the end of March 2012, a total of 192,000+ pre-foreclosure notices had been sent to delinquent owners in NYC. This does not include delinquent investor-owned properties because the law did not require servicers to send notices to them. There are lots of 2-3 family homes in the four outer boroughs of NYC. I estimate that there are roughly 75,000+ delinquent investor-owners.

    This means there are roughly 265,000 seriously delinquent homeowners in NYC who have not yet been foreclosed. Why so many? The banks do not foreclose in NYC. As of May 24, foreclosure.com reported a total of 301 foreclosed properties on the active MLS and 103 in Brooklyn. Together, these two boroughs
    have a total of 4.7 million residents. That is more people than live in Maricopa County where Phoenix is situated.

    Hard as it may be to believe, the situation is even worse on Long Island. With fewer than 3 million occupants, Nassau and Suffolk Counties showed a total of 175,000 pre-foreclosure notices sent out as of the end of March.
    Last edited by AuH20; 11-28-2012 at 02:17 PM.
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  30. #29
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    Others have a different perspective.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...ntory-massive/
    As mentioned previously, the most recent data on underwater mortgages shows that nearly a fourth of all residential properties with a mortgage are underwater. That’s 11.4 million as of the end of the first quarter. At the same time, financial institutions including big banks with exposure to the mortgage business like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup are sitting on a shadow inventory of 1.5 million units, or four months supply. Worth $246 billion, the shadow inventory will certainly weigh on lending and economic conditions going forward.

    Still, the rate of distressed sales is falling. Goldman estimates that if the revision to the 5% historical average happens over the next two years (which is highly unlikely), this would contribute 2% annual growth to home prices; if it happens over four years, they expect a 1% yearly contribution from this effect. It’s important to bear in mind that this isn’t a one-way move, either. Regulation (such as the robo-signing sparked foreclosure moratorium) has helped to slow distressed sales, while vast number of underwater mortgages and size of the shadow inventory suggests housing markets can face a sudden increase in the number of distressed properties. It will be a bumpy ride for residential real estate.

    Housing markets are no longer in free fall, even though there are risks to the outlook. But analysts are turning more bullish. Investors should remain cautious, but should expect prices to very gradually firm going forward. They must note, though, that the market is still more than 30% off its peak, and the rate of distressed properties, while substantially lower than in 2009, is still far above the historical average.
    Not saying the housing market is booming- like the rest of the economy, its gains have been slow and uneven- and they varied by location, but the worst definately has passed in my opinion. If you are going to live in a house more than a few years (otherwise it would not be a good thing to buy a home), then if the prices move up or down in between doesn't matter. At one point my place was worth three times what I paid. It fell by 50% from that. Did that matter to me? No, because I was not selling mine. If you are trying to time a bottom before jumping in- forget that as well- you won't know the bottom was passed (and it may already have been passed), you won't know until well after the fact and it will already be too late to get in at the bottom.

    If your mortgage is "underwater" that again only matters if you intend to sell right now. If you bought gold at $1900 an ounce and today it is $1700, have you lost anything? Only if you sell it now. If gold falls to $1200, should you wait or should you buy while it is more affordable or wait for the "bottom"?
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  31. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulConventionWV View Post
    What effect does this have on housing prices? Could this positive reinforcement from the Conference Board and the media be creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, or are they simply lying through their teeth? I suppose it could be both, but overall, I'm wondering what you think the net direction is for housing prices.
    I don't think the Conference Board is necessarily lying about anything. They are trying everything in their power to create a Pollyanna bandwagon effect to encourage demand, I believe (as that is their meme), but Newport was right when he said that current [modest] price increases, in those areas where they are going up, is being driven by low interest rates, declining inventory and investor activity.

    I was just in Sacramento and glanced at the following story:

    Big investment firm buys hundreds of houses in Sacramento area

    An investment firm that owns the Waldorf Astoria hotel and the Weather Channel has bought more than 500 houses in Sacramento in the past few months, betting upward of $60 million that home prices will rise.

    Blackstone, a New York-based group with billions of dollars in investments and offices from London to Tokyo, has been snapping up low-priced homes across the region, from Elk Grove to Citrus Heights, at a rate of about 40 a week.

    It marks the first time a major investment firm has bought in Sacramento on such a scale – a direct result of the thousands of houses left vacant by foreclosures in recent years and offered at fire-sale prices.

    Read more here:
    The most important thing Newport said, which I agree with, is that prices will continue to rise in line with inflation. He said "over the next five years" - I'm saying INDEFINITELY. And by staggering, breathtakingly large amounts, long term. Ultimately, housing prices are going up. Way up. Nominally speaking, astronomically up. And not as a result of some re-inflated housing bubble, either, and you don't have to even believe that hyperinflation is on the near or midterm horizon to know that the currency itself is being diluted as never before in its history.

    A lot of people are now looking at housing prices, and near term price level adjustments, to see what floor might be left. Unless we are facing truly a deflationary depression, where money simply dries up (pretty much impossible at this point), there's not much floor left -- relative to where the ceiling is headed. As such, I tend to think it's far more useful to focus on the long term fundamentals, and long term cost of ownership.

    Housing price increases due to inflation were already going up steadily long before any housing bubble. That inflationary fundamental did not go away, and if anything is going to get worse--MUCH worse. The biggest fundamental going for anyone right now is the exponential nature of inflation itself.

    The Big Lie is to center everything around "consumer confidence". Screw Glenda the Good Witch at The Conference Board, who wants to assure all the frightened little Munchkins to come out, come out, wherever they are, to see the new consumer confidence lady that fell from a star. Zero interest rates, artificial scarcity and speculative demand--mostly by investors--is driving modest price increases now.

    Consumer confidence has fuck-all to do with inflation, the most important fundamental of all, because one way or another, the nominal COST of housing is going to continue to rise on the behemoth bubble of the currency itself. And that's a bubble that doesn't cause nominal values to go down when it pops, because we would rather self-destruct than deflate. The currency IS the nominal value from which all other values, including housing, are reckoned. And it only goes up. The zero interest rate charade can't continue forever, but it doesn't matter either way. Some combination of inflation and interest rates virtually guarantee that the nominal COST of housing is going through the roof.

    The ONLY way that I would not consider housing now has nothing to do with the housing market, or where its headed in general, and everything to do with the currency market, and one's standing in it. The only question someone should be asking themselves, I think, is whether or not they believe they will continue to have access to whatever currency required to service their debts as that currency continues to LOSE VALUE, and the economy goes to shit as a result. If you have the staying power for that, you're going to be paying off a tiny (in retrospect) future debt with an highly inflated currency.
    Last edited by Steven Douglas; 11-28-2012 at 02:14 PM.

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