FiveThirtyEight on the 2014 Senate

[sailingaway]

Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?
By NATE SILVER
Democrats, faced with a daunting set of Senate races in 2012, not only survived but thrived, adding two seats to their majority.

The party will face a difficult map again in 2014, however. Twenty-one of the 35 seats up for election are now held by Democrats. Moreover, most the states that will be casting ballots for the Senate in 2014 are Republican leaning: 7 of the 21 Democratic-held seats are in states carried by the former Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, while just one of the Republican seats is in a state won by President Obama.

Democrats could also suffer from the downside to presidential coattails. Most of the seats up for grabs in 2014 were last contested in 2008, a very strong Democratic year. Without having Mr. Obama on the ballot, and with an electorate that is likely to be older and whiter than in presidential years, some Democrats may find that their 2008 coattails have turned into a midterm headwind instead.

Are the conditions favorable enough to make Republicans odds-on favorites to gain six seats and win the Senate majority? Not quite. Six seats are a lot to gain, and Republicans are at risk of nominating subpar candidates in a number of races. But it would not take all that much to tip the balance toward them.

more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...enate-in-2014/

[FSP-Rebel]

He seems super positive that even a no-namer could replace Levin and far be it from me to know anymore about it than he. Maybe this report will turn JAmash away from vying for Senate. I'm just stunned by how sure Nate is about this. I get the GOP branding problems and all but it would just seem the turnout would mirror the '10 elections where a large portion of dems wouldn't show. If they weren't excited to turnout for Snyder's opponent I can't see them that excited for some random they pick out of a primary. I mean, they haven't had a primary for this sort of thing in a while.

[supermario21]

Nate is no pundit. He's a statistician.

[juvanya]

2014 will be a GOP year as long as there are no Akins.

[Smart3]

There were Akins in both 2010 and 2012. There will be even more in 2014.

[supermario21]

Other than Paul Broun, I'm not really worried about any Akins surfacing. Amash isn't an Akin, same with Brannon, etc.

[mz10]

Nate is no pundit. He's a statistician.

Agreed. At this point in time, Nate's opinion is useless. He only becomes relevant once serious polling begins.

[Smart3]

Other than Paul Broun, I'm not really worried about any Akins surfacing. Amash isn't an Akin, same with Brannon, etc.

If the crazies run against Capito and win the primary, that'd be another Akin.

There's also Tim Donnelly in California.

[supermario21]

Tim Donnelly isn't going to win, and at this point nobody has emerged to take on Capito. I'm sure there will be some Akins, but if they are in safe Republican or safe Democratic seats it really won't matter.