Any chance of replacing Rep Diana DeGette?

[Steffen]

I'm currently living in her district and wouldn't mind supporting the cause to replace her with a more liberty minded candidate here in Denver. How crazy am I?

[CaptLouAlbano]

She won by 42 points in 2012. Defeating a 9 term Congresswoman in a strong Dem district is nearly impossible. She also raised $1 million in 2012, and her opponent raised $18,000.You are not crazy, but maybe unrealistic.

[sailingaway]

I'm currently living in her district and wouldn't mind supporting the cause to replace her with a more liberty minded candidate here in Denver. How crazy am I?

What are people in your neighborhood like? Would they go for a libertarian brand of candidate? Ron did quite well in Dem states, and if they are mad at her, it might be worth poking into. However, it is tough. I'm in an area where Berman had a 17% approval rating so ANYONE running against him got something if people only knew they were running, but mostly the GOP didn't field a candidate (some folks did but he was write in.) He finally was beat only when redistricting pitted him against yet another Dem congressman.

but see what support there is in your area, and what candidates you might have

[CaptLouAlbano]

LP candidates have run in that CD in 10 and 12, both times getting only single digits. Voter registration in the CD is more than 2 to 1 in favor of the Dems. It's a safe Dem district. And again, anyone who would challenge her would have to come up with a million dollars and then some just to be competitive financially. That would be as much, or really even more than what Massie and Amash raised in 12, of course a good portion of their totals was PAC money, which will never flow into a 2:1 district like this.

Honestly, George Washington could rise from the dead and would lose to a Dem in this district. Pick your battles wisely.

[Spoa]

While I don't like Democrats, you could try getting a more liberty-friendly Democrat. In 2012, Beto O' Rourke (famous around here for blasting the incumbent for supporting the NDAA) or Eric Swalwell (who campaigned on repealing No Child Left Behind and defeated another Democrat incumbent), won VERY Democratic districts. They're going to be liberal on quite a few issues, but at least they'll be more liberty friendly than their predecessors.

I ALWAYS Prefer the GOP though.

[CaptLouAlbano]

While I don't like Democrats, you could try getting a more liberty-friendly Democrat. In 2012, Beto O' Rourke (famous around here for blasting the incumbent for supporting the NDAA) or Eric Swalwell (who campaigned on repealing No Child Left Behind and defeated another Democrat incumbent), won VERY Democratic districts. They're going to be liberal on quite a few issues, but at least they'll be more liberty friendly than their predecessors.

I ALWAYS Prefer the GOP though.

Good thought, but even so - one million dollars - that's the major issue here. She has the ability to raise cash, and big sums of it, when she isn't even challenged. If she did have someone from her own party coming at her you can probably add another half million to that number.

[sailingaway]

While I don't like Democrats, you could try getting a more liberty-friendly Democrat. In 2012, Beto O' Rourke (famous around here for blasting the incumbent for supporting the NDAA) or Eric Swalwell (who campaigned on repealing No Child Left Behind and defeated another Democrat incumbent), won VERY Democratic districts. They're going to be liberal on quite a few issues, but at least they'll be more liberty friendly than their predecessors.

I ALWAYS Prefer the GOP though.

I was thinking of that but they wouldn't beat her in a Dem run primary where she is incumbant. I decided a liberty 'branded' Republican might do better. But that is speaking through my hat, since I don't know the people there.

[CaptLouAlbano]

I was thinking of that but they wouldn't beat her in a Dem run primary where she is incumbant. I decided a liberty 'branded' Republican might do better. But that is speaking through my hat, since I don't know the people there.

The info is out there if you know where to find it and what to look for.

[mz10]

I was thinking of that but they wouldn't beat her in a Dem run primary where she is incumbant.

Just like everybody knew Cliff Stearns couldn't get beat by some horse veterinarian.

[Steffen]

Thank you guys for the input. Would it be crazy to try and put forward a liberty minded Dem in the primary and then follow it up with a GOP candidate if DeGette wins the primary?

I'm very new to this process so forgive me if I sound like an idiot.

[mz10]

Thank you guys for the input. Would it be crazy to try and put forward a liberty minded Dem in the primary and then follow it up with a GOP candidate if DeGette wins the primary?

I'm very new to this process so forgive me if I sound like an idiot.

You can't put up a candidate after the primary unless it's a write-in candidate, which I wouldn't recommend. Stick to one candidate; I'd say a more liberty-leaning Dem. You're not gonna get some Rothbardian free-market guy elected in a true blue district, but you might get someone who's good on civil liberties/marijuana/foreign policy, that kind of stuff. Go for it, you've got nothing to lose.

[supermario21]

I think our best strategy going forward is to throw money at safe Republican seats, either when an incumbent is retiring, or when the incumbent may cast a few bad votes that could wake up not only the libertarian leaning Republicans but the base, average conservatives as well.

[CaptLouAlbano]

I think our best strategy going forward is to throw money at safe Republican seats, either when an incumbent is retiring, or when the incumbent may cast a few bad votes that could wake up not only the libertarian leaning Republicans but the base, average conservatives as well.

Agreed. We have to prioritize since there are 435 seats to potentially shoot for in the House. Here is the ranking I have always used when making considerations as to where my financial support will go to based on cost, chance of victory, and risk of loss of seat.

1) Open seat / Safe GOP (win the primary, coast to the general - lowest cost per victory)
2) Weak GOP incumbent / Safe GOP (same as one, but a likely higher cost in the primary)
3) Open seat / Swing district (more costly than above, but chances are good)
4) Strong GOP incumbent / Safe GOP (much more costly, and likelihood of primary success is slim, however no risk of seat loss)
5) Weak Dem incumbent / Swing district (low possible primary cost, high general cost, net gain if you win)
6) Weak Dem incumbent / Safe Dem (a wing and a prayer and you might prevail)
7) Strong Dem incumbent / Swing district (tough to knock them out, but worth a shot sometimes)
8) Open seat / Safe Dem (virtually impossible)
9) Weak GOP incumbent / Swing district (might be able to win primary, but high risk of seat loss)
10) Strong Dem incumbent / Safe Dem (more impossible than number 8, not worth the money)
11) Strong GOP incumbent / Swing district (costly, and high risk of seat loss - stay away)

The race in the OP would fall into number 10, number 6 if she happens to screw up over the next 4 years - but in that case, she could lose a primary challenge within her own party which makes it essentially a number 8 type race. Any way you look at it, I could not justify the cash going into a race like this. Just like I didn't send John Dennis a dime. I am sure he is a nice guy, but he was running against the Minority Leader in a CD where the Dems have a nearly 7:1 edge.

[Steffen]

Agreed. We have to prioritize since there are 435 seats to potentially shoot for in the House. Here is the ranking I have always used when making considerations as to where my financial support will go to based on cost, chance of victory, and risk of loss of seat.

1) Open seat / Safe GOP (win the primary, coast to the general - lowest cost per victory)
2) Weak GOP incumbent / Safe GOP (same as one, but a likely higher cost in the primary)
3) Open seat / Swing district (more costly than above, but chances are good)
4) Strong GOP incumbent / Safe GOP (much more costly, and likelihood of primary success is slim, however no risk of seat loss)
5) Weak Dem incumbent / Swing district (low possible primary cost, high general cost, net gain if you win)
6) Weak Dem incumbent / Safe Dem (a wing and a prayer and you might prevail)
7) Strong Dem incumbent / Swing district (tough to knock them out, but worth a shot sometimes)
8) Open seat / Safe Dem (virtually impossible)
9) Weak GOP incumbent / Swing district (might be able to win primary, but high risk of seat loss)
10) Strong Dem incumbent / Safe Dem (more impossible than number 8, not worth the money)
11) Strong GOP incumbent / Swing district (costly, and high risk of seat loss - stay away)

The race in the OP would fall into number 10, number 6 if she happens to screw up over the next 4 years - but in that case, she could lose a primary challenge within her own party which makes it essentially a number 8 type race. Any way you look at it, I could not justify the cash going into a race like this. Just like I didn't send John Dennis a dime. I am sure he is a nice guy, but he was running against the Minority Leader in a CD where the Dems have a nearly 7:1 edge.

Interesting list. I would like to think it's at least possible. Weed for recreation is legal in Denver now and I would have never thought it could happen 2 years ago.

[CaptLouAlbano]

Interesting list. I would like to think it's at least possible. Weed for recreation is legal in Denver now and I would have never thought it could happen 2 years ago.

Your biggest issue there is voter demographics. It's 2:1 Dem, and truth be told most people vote party line regardless of the candidates on the ballot (with rare exceptions). Redistricting didn't change the CD all that much. She won 68/26 in '12; and 67/28 in '10. So the independents in that CD vote Dem. The numbers just aren't in your favor. The only hope you have is that she makes a huge blunder right before the general election. Is there any Republican in the CD that has a large amount of name recognition and support? I looked at the Denver mayors, and they have all been Dem going back to the 80's, so I personally couldn't find anyone of note.