What is wrong with silver?

[NoOneButPaul]

http://www.silverdoctors.com/192-mil...n-nfp-release/

According to NetDania’s volume (which approximates volume from 5 separate sources and is not an exact indicator of volume data) 38,400 contracts, or 191.99 million ounces of paper silver (nearly a quarter of annual global silver production!) were dumped on the market in only 10 minutes between 8:30 and 8:40am EST upon the release of the NFP data.
Screen shot of the paper dump (with 3rd wave of attack in progress) below:

$31 has just been penetrated in the 3rd wave of the cartel attack, but price has quickly rebounded from $30.91 to $31.25.

*Update: Paper dumping has commenced again, with silver smashed back under $31 with a last of $30.77. Expect support to emerge near $30-$30.50.

The graphs are telling... this is classic market manipulation in the run up to election day... and they did what they always do- they used the FUDGED jobs report as cover.

If Romney wins it could crash even further because the dollar's strength will temporarily boost. On the other hand if Obama wins we could be back to 33$ on Wednesday.

Also remember that Taxmageddon and the fiscal cliff are coming in 2013... I still think this weekend is an AMAZING buying opportunity. I'm sure it could crash to 26-27 if they keep smashing it, and Romney wins, but 12 months from now I absolutely believe we will be in the low 40s in silver.

I'm on my way to go buy some more today... don't fret about the price folks it's a complete lie.

And if that's not enough reason for you to stack just remember that you're holding something that has been, and always will be, money. It's not gold-money, but it's the people's money.

If you buy in today at 30.91 and it gets smashed to 10$ in a month you're purchasing power will remain intact. It's very difficult to lose with gold and silver even if the price plummets to crazy low levels... in a situation like that it will mean that the price of everything else fell with it and confidence is being restored in the market. You won't lose your purchasing power, and the odds of gaining more purchasing power are still greater than you losing it at these low 30s levels.

Again... i'm just some guy on the internet. Don't take my word for it. All I ask out of the stackers who are with me is keep faith and persistence... faith and persistence... the more people that wake up to silver the harder it is for them to control the market. Keep stacking and keep preaching.

These price controls in the now will eventually lead to silver waaay over performing at some point in the next 10 years and that will be the point at which you should sell.

My magic number is 200$... I believe it will hit 200$ at some point before 2020 and that's when it will be time to sell your silver, or better yet, trade it for undervalued assets. It's all about trying to play the business cycle bubbles Ron has talked all about... and that Mises so brilliantly pointed out almost 100 years ago.

We are all in a very unique position because we understand these bubbles better than almost all the so called experts because we're the ones following the correct economic school of thought. Guys like Ron are able to predict what's coming so easily not because they're geniuses but because they've read Rothbard, Mises, Sennholz, Hazlitt, and all the other economic geniuses that were ignored for decades and are still largely ignored by the mainstream.

Follow the Austrian school of thought and play the bubbles we know the central banks create... right now silver and gold are still undervalued and manipulated... when people wake up to the fact paper is not money and the game of musical chairs ends with the Federal Reserve Notes then the PMs will start to overshoot- that will be the time to switch from PMs to land or other under valued assets that tank tremendously because the central banks have propped them up.

My goal is to wait until PMs overshoot and then try to purchase property (which I believe will crash VERY hard at some point because it's still being massively inflated by the Federal Reserve and as it's crashing that will probably be the exact same time period that the PMs are booming).

Worst case scenario is the boom never comes, it slowly drops back down to 2000 levels, and you maintain your purchasing power.

Best case scenario is the world wakes up at once to the realization paper is not money and the price skyrockets to levels no one can even fathom right now (kind of like how people in 1971 could have never dreamed of a world with 1900$ gold... also remember Gold went from 35$ to 850$ from 1971-1980... such a drastic PM rise can happen and has happened).

And before someone tries to chime in about how PMs are in a bubble I would merely point out that only 1% of the country holds PMs... there's absolutely no way this stuff is in a bubble with so few people holding it.

Look at what the super wealthy are driving to, look at what China is driving to, look at rising cost of EVERYTHING. We are still at the ground floor for PMs.

Don't fret about your silver and do not worry about the price, Silver's day will come... just keep faith and keep stacking.

[Carson]

I think the reason the value of the dollar didn't keep falling and actually gained some value for the year was that some of the currency had to be written off because of defaults on loans. It looks like inflation is back with a vengeance now. I suspect your going to do fine. Then again maybe we would be better suffering a little loss on our silver and having a healthy economy with people working again.

http://www.silverandgoldaremoney.com/

I've been thinking that defaulting on loans and the housing prices falling may have had something to do with the way stocks, commodities and silver had fallen in the last year. I could be sadly mistaken about that. That would make our pile of stuff shrink in relationship to the pile of fiat money and should create inflation.

Perhaps what has really taken place is with our concern for the future and many of us focused on trying to find a way to save a little we've retired some of the fiat out of the system making the dollar a little stronger.

It's a puzzler. I'm tired. They've worn me down.

When you use real money the money is part of the pile of stuff. I'm thinking that in itself takes out a lot of the confusion and ability to manipulate. I think we are all on that page.

[Bossobass]

If short term gain is your goal, I see no better opportunity than silver.

If you can buy it at $29.50 (August) and sell it 30 days later for >$35, how the hell does anyone not see tremendous short term gains in that? What short term investments are you guys into, because every time I read that silver sucks short term, I wonder vs WHAT??? Let me in, please!

[Dr.3D]

If short term gain is your goal, I see no better opportunity than silver.

If you can buy it at $29.50 (August) and sell it 30 days later for >$35, how the hell does anyone not see tremendous short term gains in that? What short term investments are you guys into, because every time I read that silver sucks short term, I wonder vs WHAT??? Let me in, please!

And the way silver fluctuates, you can do that over and over again. Just buy when it's low and sell when it's high.

[oyarde]

I feel pretty good about everything I bought around $26 - 27 this year.

[NoOneButPaul]

If short term gain is your goal, I see no better opportunity than silver.

If you can buy it at $29.50 (August) and sell it 30 days later for >$35, how the hell does anyone not see tremendous short term gains in that? What short term investments are you guys into, because every time I read that silver sucks short term, I wonder vs WHAT??? Let me in, please!

I dont think it's a BAD short term buy but I just think it's a VERY RISKY short term buy because it's very up and down. I also feel like the only real way to play that short term game is with the SLV or other paper certificates that I have no desire to be in.

If someone bought in at 40$ because it was down from 50$ and expected it to rise back up to 45$ they're still waiting for that day now... 2 years later... and they're down 25%

You can make a lot of money in the short term if you play your cards right, I just don't have the desire to give myself the heart attack. Money can be made in the short term but I think you'll find much more stability in the long term.

This is why I typically like to set myself a price in dollars per month and stick to that dollar price. The only time I stray is when I see a great opportunity.

[cubical]

I am starting to lean towards the FOFOA stance on silver. It will end up being priced like all other commodities, while gold will end up being true money. Central banks and the elite don't hoard silver, they hoard gold. I am not selling the silver I own, but I will no longer be buying anymore. I will treat silver like a trade and exchange it for gold because in the shorter run I believe it will move up faster than gold. It's only the king's money for me going forward.

[NoOneButPaul]

I am starting to lean towards the FOFOA stance on silver. It will end up being priced like all other commodities, while gold will end up being true money. Central banks and the elite don't hoard silver, they hoard gold. I am not selling the silver I own, but I will no longer be buying anymore. I will treat silver like a trade and exchange it for gold because in the shorter run I believe it will move up faster than gold. It's only the king's money for me going forward.

Of course I could argue that the fact the Central Banks hold NO Silver (EDIT- Some central banks hold little amounts but it was long ago dismissed by the elite as real money- that's an advantage that we little people have) actually makes it a better buy because it's much more difficult for them to manipulate it. They have to go through banks like JP Morgan to do so and even JPM can only manipulate it with their paper and not their actual silver reserves because they don't have as much as they claim. It's much harder for the central banks to manipulate silver than it is gold because they can just dump their own gold reserves on the market.

Furthermore... as people start to try to protect themselves against inflation the first thing they'll run to is gold... and immediately they'll make the realization that Gold is too expensive for them (it's already much to expensive for the common man) and they will naturally run to the poor man's gold... Silver.

And... if Gold does become money again then it's price will skyrocket and Silver's price will eventually go right along with it. At the historic 16-1 ratio Silver should be about 107$ today... if Gold goes up to say 4000$ then Silver should hit 250$

What i'm getting at is the gains on Silver will end up being much greater because the flocking to gold has already begun with the Billionaires... the common people have yet to flock to gold to protect themselves and by the time they realize they have to it will be too late and they'll be forced to go after silver.

This also doesn't get into all the industrial uses Silver has over Gold... or the fact Silver conducts heat and electricity better than any other known element in the universe. Silver is essential to the production of solar panels which all the governments in the world are driving towards. It even has medical uses and there's actually less of it to invest in today than Gold because silver has been discarded for so many decades as a cheap industrial metal in electronics.

[NoOneButPaul]

Someone just PMed me asking about the best way to buy silver... I'm posting this here because I think it could help some people on the fence who are weary about buying and because i'm sure there are people out there who can offer better advice on the matter than I can...

I also prefer NOT to leave a paper trail. I've got thousands in silver and the gov't doesn't know about a single dime of it. I need to preface all this by saying though A LOT OF PEOPLE buy Silver online and even buy the SLV stocks and don't pay any mind to the whole government not knowing about it thing. Trying to keep your silver out of the Government's eyes will end up COSTING YOU MORE MONEY. I however, believe it's a cost worth paying... but just remember there are a ton of people out there that don't worry about it at all.

Anyway, consider the premium the price you're paying for the gov't to not know about your purchase...

Silver Eagles ARE GREAT to buy... they are the most popular coin in the world and they are guaranteed by the US Treasury as 1 fine OZ of silver. When you get an Eagle you KNOW it's not a fake and people are much more comfortable buying them off of you because of the security.

HOWEVER, Silver Eagles come with the HIGHEST premiums because they are much easier to sell and because the confidence in authenticity is very high. Typically a SE premium will be between 3-5$... if you can find 3$ that's pretty good, 5$ is a bit too steep for me but it really depends on your budget. I will occasionally pay 4$ but i'm never happy about that either. A lot of places will sell you a stack of 20 Eagles and only charge you 2-3$ per OZ if you buy ALL 20. You can also try to haggle with people if that's your thing but consider 3$ on Eagles very good. If you find anything under that it's an automatic buy imo.

Just remember... if you buy a Silver Eagle at 30.91 plus 5$ premium then you'll need silver to hit 36$ before you're out of the red. This is why premiums can be killer and why finding the lowest ones is key.

But... typically the lower premium OZ coins were privately minted and do not carry the confidence of Silver Eagles. In all the time i've been buying i've NEVER run across a fake silver OZ but still... you know with Silver Eagles they are legit.

Canadian Maple Leafs are also a solid buy because it's the same story with the Eagles except it's Canada backing them instead of the US... Again though, Premiums will be an issue.

Buying the bars will come with less of a premium (especially the more you buy in weight) but if you're going to buy bars, or any silver that's not government minted for that matter, try to buy from reputable assayers. Like Johnson-Matthey, Ampex, Engelhard, etc... do research on the more reputable assayers before you buy silver.

But then there's JUNK COINS...

Junk Coins are an engima... I still haven't figured out if I like them or not and I just started to get into them but i'll let you in on the pros and cons...

Junk Coins are all pre1964 half dollars, quarters, and dimes... they were minted by the US Gov't and are 90% silver and 10% copper.

A GREAT PLACE to look at the values of these coins is coinflation.com

The Pros to Junk Coins:

The Premiums ARE DIRT CHEAP most places will charge just over spot on their junk coins so you won't get slammed at 3-4-5$ per OZ on premiums.

Now keeping this in mind i'll give you my personal opinion... Silver Half Dollars are the only junk coins worth holding and there's a number of reasons for this (before I go on, a lot of people like the dimes and quarters because they believe when the currency collapse hits they will be used as the new currency. I don't really think this way but if you really think that's coming than you might want to go into the dimes and quarters too... dimes are also much easier to weigh out in OZ form... I have dimes and quarters but MANY MORE half dollars... anyway)

The reason I LOVE the Half Dollars is because 3 pre 1964 half dollars = 1.085 Troy OZ of Silver

The guy I buy from charges me 25cents over spot for each Half Dollar... so the reason I LOVE the half dollars is because if I get 3 of them (thus 1.085OZ of silver) i'm only paying 75cents in premium for just over an OZ.

PLUS the US Mint guaranteed these coins silver content 50 years ago so you know that they are legit and also VERY difficult to fake (plus, if you go into banks and ask for half dollar rolls you might find a couple in there for free).

The other reason I like the half dollars is because they weren't circulated very much which means the condition of the coins themselves are usually MUCH nicer than the quarters and dimes.

The other interesting thing about going with the Junk Coins is even if Silver CRASHES HARD you may discover that these coins still hold COLLECTOR value meaning that you can still get SOMETHING for them in the event of a serious silver crash.

I've got a 1913 Barber Half Dollar that is going for like 20$ on Ebay even though it's only worth 11.17$ in silver right now. I bought the Half Dollar at 30cents over spot because the dealer doesn't really give two shits about the collecting aspect because generally they just toss all their "junk" in a bin and let you pick through it for what you want.

Anyways... I LOVE pre 1964 half dollars because of the lack of premium, because they were guaranteed 90% silver, and because their condition is largely solid because of lack of use.

HOWEVER... some cons to junk coins and half dollars...

1st- Silver is ALWAYS priced in Troy OZs so if you've got a dime, quarter, or half dollar, and don't have access to coinflation.com 's silver calculator it's very difficult to figure how much silver you've actually got.

This is why I prefer stacking in the 47 half dollar method (47 half dollars = 17Troy OZs) the issue with that is if you're trying to sell and the person only wants say 1OZ of silver it's IMPOSSIBLE to weigh that out with half dollars. 3 half dollars is 1.085 and then you've got to figure the readjustment.

However... 14 pre 1964 dimes does weigh basically 1Troy Oz (it's not totally exact which is why I prefer 83dimes = 6 OZ of silver but it's almost exact - 1.01OZ) this is another reason people like the dimes. It's much easier to sort them out in 1OZ stacks to resale later.

Still, I think the premiums on half dollars are too good to pass up. So I largely stick with them.

Now... when it comes to the Half Dollars I absolutely recommend you try to ONLY BUY the Franklin Half Dollars which were minted from 1948 to 1963... there's a lot of reasons for this actually.

1st- The Walking Liberty Half Dollar (1916-1947) is generally VERY worn because of it's age and it's hard to say that it's still got its original silver weight due to usage. The same can be said for the Barber Half Dollars (1892-1915). Then there's the 90% JFK Half Dollars which were only made in 1964...

The 1964 JFK ones are also solid but I try to stay away from them because from 1965 to 1970 they made JFK Half Dollars out of 40% silver... so when trying to resale if the person you're trying to sell too doesn't understand this he may think you're trying to rip him off with 1964 JFK Half Dollars because he could be under the impression that they ARE ALL 40%.

I think the Franklin's really are the best bet when it comes the Half Dollars but i've got a little bit of all 4 (but mostly Franklins). The Franklins are not as worn as the older ones, they were never diluted down to 40% like the Kennedy's were, and there's actually not as many of them out there as people think because a lot of them were melted down when that was still legal.


I guess my advice is do what you are most comfortable with... some people are comfortable going in with the SLV stock because there's 0 premium (I on the other hand do not trust paper so I refuse to get into that) some people are comfortable with only Silver Eagles because they are so popular, guaranteed, and are VERY nice looking coins. Same can be said for the Maple Leafs but the premiums on both are too rich for my blood.

Privately minted OZs and Bars carry more risk with it being fakes but you will typically pay a little less in Premiums.

Junk Coins carry the LOWEST premiums by far but are hard to weigh out in OZ form and you end up stacking a ton of them (at least Dimes and Quarters).

I like to have a little bit of all of it (i've got privately minted bars, rounds, SEs, Maples, 83 dimes, 94 quarters, and a massive amount of half dollars) so my suggestion would be to get a little bit of everything just because they all have their own pros and cons.

However, I still find the Franklin Half Dollars to be your best buy because the premiums are so low, they are typically in good condition (especially the 1962-63 ones) and 3 of them gets you 1.085OZs with a small premium.

I would also take this moment to say... don't not get caught into buying jewerly or silverware or any other plated stuff like that. Stick with the real physical or the junk coins.


Now... how to buy...

I live in Chicago so this isn't a problem for me... there's more pawn shops than I can count in the city and there's a lot of very reputable coin dealers around as well. I researched the different coin dealers and also talked to people I knew who were already buying and asked around about the best places/prices until I found a guy I really liked and now I typically stick with him.

Another place I like to go is Craig's List... I know it seems a little shady but as long as you meet in a public place there's not a lot to worry about and i've actually met a lot of really cool and like minded people this way because the people selling their silver are almost always of a similar mindset as you are.

Through some of the people I met on Craig's List I also found out about coin shows that go on in the Suburbs every couple of weeks... this is another great place to make cash exchanges and not have to worry about a paper trail.

Finally, a trick I was taught that I'd like to pass on to you...

Since most people don't carry around nitric acid to test if it's real silver there's a couple of decent and very easy methods to test silver with. One is by using a magnetic... silver is not magnetic so if you put a magnet to it and it attracts then you don't want to buy it.

My cheaper and easy method is one I learned from a friend who started hoarding silver about 10 years and he told me he learned it while he was in China...

Take your silver coin (this actually works with bars to) and balance it on your thumb... dead center if you can... and then very lightly flick the silver coin with your other hand (it takes a while to get the hang of this because it's kind of a balancing act but once you get the touch it's pretty easy).

If, when you flick the silver with one finger while balancing it on the other thumb, you hear a ringing sound then you know you've got REAL SILVER.

If it makes a thunk sound then you do not have real silver.

A good way to tell the difference is to take a pre 1964 half dollar and a post 1970 half dollar and then flick the silver one. You'll hear the ring... then flick the post 1970 one and you'll hear the thunk.

Once you can tell the difference between the two sounds you've got yourself a solid (but not totally fool proof) method of checking to see if your silver is real.

Last point... I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but I believe if you purchase more than 1000$ of silver in one transaction the dealer is forced to take your name and information. Try to keep it below 1000$ so this doesn't happen. Luckily for me since I've got so many shops to go in and out of If I buy just under 1000$ in one I can just hop over to another and buy more... it's not like the dealers talk to each other or even know my name.

I also tend to use fake names when talking to any of them just because i'm paranoid like that... anyways... keep stacking and feel free to ask questions. I'm sure there are many more people on here that know much much much more than I do about the stuff... you can really never stop learning about any of it and at the very least it's a very fun hobby.

One that I truly believe will end up making us a pretty penny in terms of purchasing power. Experts say the magic PMs number is 10% of your net-worth - don't go over that. I've heard great cases now for 20% being the absolute max, right now i'm at 40%.

I'll either crash with this ship or sail home with it. Good Luck and Keep Stacking...

[W_BRANDON]

If short term gain is your goal, I see no better opportunity than silver.

If you can buy it at $29.50 (August) and sell it 30 days later for >$35, how the hell does anyone not see tremendous short term gains in that? What short term investments are you guys into, because every time I read that silver sucks short term, I wonder vs WHAT??? Let me in, please!

I have never considered investments in commodities in terms of short term ROI. I rather consider it as a hedge against inflation...something that will maintain value versus the dollar. If the price (in $) doesn't keep up with the rate of inflation, your losing money.

The scenario you gave for buying 8/1/12 and selling 9/1/12 was cherry picked. I could provide you just as many 30 day windows where you lose on the silver investment. I started buying silver in March 2011. Even on a two year line, this investment is having a hard time breaking even. I expect silver to have trends similar to gold, hell better than gold because of it's industrial demand and applications. Buying for 30 days isn't what I'm looking for neither is astronomical yields, just some instrument that protects against inflation.