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Thread: Here Comes the Economic Boom

  1. #1

    Default Here Comes the Economic Boom

    Doom and gloom is over guys - it's time for the next bull run!

    Check it:




    The economic policies of Ben Bernanke and Obama are working. All signs point to a renewed, consumer-led economic recovery in the United States. Unemployment below 7% in 2014? Looks likely!
    Last edited by Jordan; 10-31-2012 at 08:19 PM. Reason: more proof of economic recovery



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  4. #3

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    Just in time to save Obama too.

    Now I can go buy that house boat I had my eye on.

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    Check the numbers, end of March, see what you think.

  7. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Check the numbers, end of March, see what you think.
    Is that how long we have to flee?

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    Quote Originally Posted by VIDEODROME View Post
    Is that how long we have to flee?
    I would say Jan through June would be fleeing time, but that is just my guess , I use nothing, but math.I could be wrong, but , not likely, without huge tax & spending cuts. Nobody will vote to cut spending, now will they?

  9. #8

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    This just in from 2005-2006! Check it:


    Yep, we were all geared up for a boom on top of a boom, baby. All the signs were even better back then. Damn the icebergs, full steam and good times ahead!

    I have often heard it said that rigor mortis, postmortem outgassing, etc., often causes corpses to sit up, move limbs and even make vocal sounds that can otherwise be mistaken for signs of life. It definitely has to give necrophiliacs and other corpse molesters the tingles.

    BTW - re: rising auto sales: that is one area where banks and finance companies did loosen up credit. Couple that with enormous incentive to get rid of older cars, and less fuel efficient cars due to exponentially accelerating fuel prices, and increased auto sales would not be unexpected even in a crappy economy. That's not necessarily a sign of economic improvement, so much as the equivalent in many cases of an artificially broken window being replaced.

    Auto Sales: The Next Bubble?

    Auto sales are expected to grow once again this month. But is the auto industry forming a sales bubble? Let's bring in Jeremy Annal.

    "...expected to do about 12.5 million total this year. We could do 1 million more than that. Why wouldn't that be good news for the industry? Well, i think it is good news as far as it goes. The car companies are going to be announcing sales numbers on Tuesday. and I think most people are thinking sales will show up at a 13.4 annual basing. But you have to think about the context.

    "If you remember back in March, we had the earthquake in Japan and through the summer, car sales were unusually depressed because of shortages of product and high prices. As inventories have been getting in the marketplace, prices have been normalizing. A lot of those buyers are returning, but this is a short-term effect; a lot of sales that didn't occur in the summer that will play out."

    "We've been talking a lot about the idea of hopium. More people are buying cars, so ipso facto, the economy's getting better. But how many cars that are ten years old are still on the road and it's a $2,000 car that needs a $2,000 transmission and no one's going to do that? How much is necessity versus consumer demand?"
    Last edited by Steven Douglas; 11-01-2012 at 06:16 AM.

  10. #9

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    Buying cars we don't need when we should be selling more cars abroad, further fueling our over-consumption & trade-deficit.
    Bond sales indicate we'll continue trying to borrow our way to prosperity. We have essentially zero savings in this country so this is clearly driven by excessive money-printing and more borrowing from savers abroad.
    Home prices rising when they should still be falling until the average person can buy them again indicate we're still trying to inflate the housing market. Personal spending up when we should be under-consuming & saving more.
    Borrowing costs are low because due to the fed there is NO limit to the amount of cash available to borrow.
    Private equity is sitting on cash. WE DO NOT NEED MORE CASH!!!! The last thing we need is more cash. Fed notes are the poison in this system. They distort the market & put blinders over our eyes so we cannot see what's really happening. Just because the stock market is up a bunch doesn't mean shit. If eggs, milk, energy, etc. go up the same amount, there are NO REAL GAINS, just wealth transfer to those who touched the notes first.
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  11. #10

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    Research channel stuffing before celebrating the rebirth of the auto industry.
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  12. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acala View Post
    Research channel stuffing before celebrating the rebirth of the auto industry.
    A practice particularly easy to pull off in the auto industry because most dealers don't (often can't, contractually) sell anyone else's product. Which means the manufacturers have them by the gonads.
    Quote Originally Posted by Calvin Coolidge View Post
    'The country cannot be run on the promise of what it will do for the people. The only motive to which they will continue ready to respond is the opportunity to do something for themselves, to achieve their own greatness, to work out their own destiny.'
    Quote Originally Posted by Calvin Coolidge View Post
    'We do not need more government, we need more culture. We do not need more law, we need more religion. We do not need more of the things that are seen, we need more of the things that are unseen.'

  13. #12

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    My often observed bellweather of election day rapidly approaching are gasoline prices falling steadily at the local pumps. Sure enough, here they are.

    Source: Gas Buddy

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    Quote Originally Posted by supermario21 View Post
    Raul Labrador just threw the hammer down..."said we need to stop acting like moderates and talking like conservatives" and start "talking like moderates and acting like conservatives".
    looking for a second major political party

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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    I would say Jan through June would be fleeing time, but that is just my guess , I use nothing, but math.I could be wrong, but , not likely, without huge tax & spending cuts. Nobody will vote to cut spending, now will they?
    I'm definitely not an economic expert, so hopefully you can correct me if I'm wrong, but if China/the world keeps buying our debt and doesn't dump their dollars then the music keeps playing right? I think it's impossible to know how much time we have, I still think if we greatly reduced the deficit very soon we could avoid the worst of it.

  15. #14

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    I am having a real time discerning whether the op was sarcasm or not. My guess is that he actually meant what he said.

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    auto sales up 11%? I don't know anyone who has purchased a new car in the last year.
    Insanity should be defined as trusting the government to solve a problem they caused in the first place. Please do not go insane!

  17. #16

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    China has effectively stopped purchasing US debt. It's the Federal Reserve buying the VAST MAJORITY (65-70%) of US Treasuries.

    China is allowing its bonds to mature and unwind in a slow, methodical fasion. They have nothing to gain from crashing the USD, but they have nothing to gain by purchasing more UST's.

    The US Federal Reserve is acting like a Banana Republic Central Bank.

    Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
    I'm definitely not an economic expert, so hopefully you can correct me if I'm wrong, but if China/the world keeps buying our debt and doesn't dump their dollars then the music keeps playing right? I think it's impossible to know how much time we have, I still think if we greatly reduced the deficit very soon we could avoid the worst of it.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

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    The Fed effectively stopped their net buying in June 2011 as well.

    In the past year (August 2011 to August 2010) Chinese holdings have gone from $1.278 trillion down actually to $1.153 trillion http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt Total foreign held US debt grew from $4.763 trillion to $5.430 trillon (Japan has been one of the bigger net buyers).

    At the same time, the Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasuries (October 24, 2011 to October 24, 2012) went from $1.646 trillion to $1.652 trillion- virtually unchanged. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/ They aren't buying 65- 70% of the US Treasuries being issued.

    The Fed has been buying long term Treasury notes- with money they get from maturing short- term Treasuries they bought earlier. That gives them no net new purchases. Since that debt (the maturing short term notes) is not being paid off, the Treasury has to issue replacement debt for the maturing notes the Fed (and other investors) cashes in.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-01-2012 at 12:37 PM.
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  19. #18

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    QE3 Zippy, QE3. The purchasing continues right after the election. If you're going to troll, make it harder on us.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

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    QE3 is not buying US Treasuries. It is buying mortgage backed securities.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    ...Couple that with enormous incentive to get rid of older cars...
    And how can we forget cash for clunkers?



    No need for broken windows when you can destroy the engines instead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    QE3 is not buying US Treasuries. It is buying mortgage backed securities.
    And what is done with the cash proceeds when JP Sachs sells their garbage to the Fed?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
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  23. #22

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    And this allows banks to do what?

    Purchase treasuries to bolster their reserves...to fractionally lend them off.

    The Fed, the USG and the Primary Dealers are playing a game of monetary merry-go-round.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    QE3 is not buying US Treasuries. It is buying mortgage backed securities.
    Last edited by Seraphim; 11-01-2012 at 12:44 PM.
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  24. #23

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    Beat me to it. Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    And what is done with the cash proceeds when JP Sachs sells their garbage to the Fed?
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  25. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    QE3 is not buying US Treasuries. It is buying mortgage backed securities.
    Initially - the stated intent, and the initial direction, not a decision that was cast in granite. Anything could happen in January.

    Excerpts from coverage of Fed press conference HERE.

    What’s more, Bernanke’s clear statement that the Fed will reassess the situation in January, when Operation Twist ends, signals a willingness to extend bond-buying well into next year, he says. Bernanke issued “a strong invitation to anticipate unsterilized Treasury purchases in January unless payroll numbers pick up significantly, an unlikely prospect in our judgment.”

    * * * *

    If the economy is still stalled in coming months, Fed could begin buying Treasury bonds again. Right now, remember, the Fed will use QE3 to buy MBS.

    What will need to happen for the Fed to switch to Treasuries? “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially,” says High Frequency Economics’ Jim O’Sullivan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    And this allows banks to do what?

    Purchase treasuries to bolster their reserves...to fractionally lend them off.

    The Fed, the USG and the Primary Dealers are playing a game of monetary merry-go-round.
    There we go!

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Douglas View Post
    Initially - the stated intent, and the initial direction, not a decision that was cast in granite. Anything could happen in January.
    Anything can and will happen.

    Who can forget Paulson's classic spending of TARP money on whatever he felt like spending it on?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


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    Quote Originally Posted by Seraphim View Post
    And this allows banks to do what?

    Purchase treasuries to bolster their reserves...to fractionally lend them off.

    The Fed, the USG and the Primary Dealers are playing a game of monetary merry-go-round.
    The claim was that the Fed was buying 65-70% of all US Treasuries. They aren't since they are no longer net buyers.
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  28. #27

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    They were. It is temporarily on hold - it will resume.

    Time will show this.


    as stated above - they've merely changed what the shell game looks like.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The claim was that the Fed was buying 65-70% of all US Treasuries. They aren't since they are no longer net buyers.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

  29. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The claim was that the Fed was buying 65-70% of all US Treasuries. They aren't since they are no longer net buyers.
    Ok. They are buying them for Goldman Sachs and company. Feel better now? None of them are using already existing money to buy treasuries. No one would waste their already existing money on treasuries.

  30. #29
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    Somebody is indeed buying them. It is just not China and the Fed.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this message. But you don't have to.

  31. #30

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    (It is the Fed). They just aren't reporting it.

    Remember; the Primary Dealers, the USG and The Fed are intertwined - this is outright fascism. It's a shell game. They move the assets around at key times to make it APPEAR one way, when in fact, it is another.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Somebody is indeed buying them. It is just not China and the Fed.
    "Like an army falling, one by one by one" - Linkin Park

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