IMPORTANT: OFFICIAL HURRICANE THREAD

[libertygrl]

Luckily it looks to be heading straight for Washington D.C.

Now that, WOULD be the perfect storm.

[libertygrl]

I hope you like it! Great show. I was one of its "dozens of fans!" /David Milch

OMG. I'm totally liking that song! I'll have to check them out on iTunes. I'm always looking for bands I haven't heard of. Can't stand what's on the radio these days...

[Nirvikalpa]

My area was a mess after Hurricane Irene (hundreds of houses deemed 'uninhabitable'). The NYC-area is probably going to be a mess - the metro will probably be shut down, and Amtrak/NJ Transit service will be down too. We have a lot of nursing homes and senior citizen living apartments right alongside the rivers here (whoever thought that was a good idea deserves to be smacked)...

Hoping all my buds in Cape Hatteras, NC can enjoy the surf... but that it stays far, far away from my house.

[Dianne]

I would say everyone on the east coast should prepare. There are some great suggestions on the board .. I would suggest you have plenty of plastic, disposable eating utensils and paper plates and garbage bags in case you lose water and power.

I don't trust anything weather people have to say. I lived through Hurricane Hugo in the Charlotte area, back in the 80's. I stayed up until 1:00 a.m. watching the reports and we were told we might have wind gusts up to 35 mph. At 5:00 a.m. the winds were over 100 mph, there was a freight train sound for about two hours (loud like the track was right outside the door), trees snapping, fireballs bouncing in the yard from transformers blowing. We were without power and phone service for 15 days and were not at all prepared. All the stores and gas stations were closed due to power outages and huge trees across the roads. We couldn't go anywhere, had little in the way of canned goods.. All the stuff in the fridge and freezer spoiled.
It looked like a war zone when it was over. The neighbors all pitched in together to share what resources we had.

I'm just suggesting everyone on the east coast be vigilent, and if it going to come close; just get the hell out of there. It was a terrifying experience !

[QuickZ06]

If it is a bad one, good luck and hope everyone makes it out ok. Can't be losing these liberty lovers to HAARP.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

October is still considered "hurricane season."

http://www.stormfax.com/hurmonth.htm

Only goes to 2006, but there are plenty of US hurricane strikes in OCT.

Having a few weeks of food and water are a good idea.

Reported!

It is strictly for hurricanes. Once the hurricane is gone, we eat it all up and drink the water as quickly as possible. We used to call it Chris Christie time, but we might call it Honey Boo Boo time next time.

But one of the meterologists did say that the particular tracking system they use has been pretty accurate so far.

Didn't they just have it running into western FL just a day or two ago? These things do change, and this one just did. Otherwise, there'd be nothing new to report. I think their latest forecast (your video) is quite ambitious.

This is probably like Christmas time for you surfer dudes.

Too much wind, I hear.


But I've heard a hurricane going into NY at the right angle would be just plain nasty, and they've been saying that for years... kinda like bowling where you want to curve in between the first two pins. The right strike would be an amazing disaster.

[Lucille]

I wonder how many people don't prep for disasters like this since the govt said it's a "potential indicator of terrorist activities.”

[cajuncocoa]

I think I'll just accept what this guy is saying first, instead of freaking out over what the cable news stations are broadcasting. He sounds more level headed:

The Weather Channel people seem to take delight in freaking out over hurricanes. Fear sells.

Evacuate if you think it's not safe to stay in your current location....remember, your life is more important than your stuff. If it's not unsafe to stay, prepare properly and keep your wits about you during the storm. If you do that, there won't be any need to fear.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

I wonder how many people don't prep for disasters like this since the govt said it's a "potential indicator of terrorist activities.”

Not sure, but a lot of people have the sense to prepare for a hurricane headed straight for them.

[brandon]

All that hype over Irene last year and then all he got here in eastern pa was heavy rains for a few hours. I imagine this will be the same thing. Folks on the coast may have more to worry about.

[libertygrl]

I would say everyone on the east coast should prepare. There are some great suggestions on the board .. I would suggest you have plenty of plastic, disposable eating utensils and paper plates and garbage bags in case you lose water and power.

I don't trust anything weather people have to say. I lived through Hurricane Hugo in the Charlotte area, back in the 80's. I stayed up until 1:00 a.m. watching the reports and we were told we might have wind gusts up to 35 mph. At 5:00 a.m. the winds were over 100 mph, there was a freight train sound for about two hours (loud like the track was right outside the door), trees snapping, fireballs bouncing in the yard from transformers blowing. We were without power and phone service for 15 days and were not at all prepared. All the stores and gas stations were closed due to power outages and huge trees across the roads. We couldn't go anywhere, had little in the way of canned goods.. All the stuff in the fridge and freezer spoiled.
It looked like a war zone when it was over. The neighbors all pitched in together to share what resources we had.

I'm just suggesting everyone on the east coast be vigilent, and if it going to come close; just get the hell out of there. It was a terrifying experience !

Thanks Dianne. Getting some great advice and reports from people who have been there before. I'm trying to think of what non perishables I should buy. I used to be able to eat just carbs and stuff, but I notice lately that I need plenty of protein. I guess tuna and peanut butter is a good place to start.. any suggestions?

[libertygrl]

If it is a bad one, good luck and hope everyone makes it out ok. Can't be losing these liberty lovers to HAARP.

[libertygrl]

I wonder how many people don't prep for disasters like this since the govt said it's a "potential indicator of terrorist activities.”

These people are A-holes. You have local & government websites telling you how to prepare for disasters, and then at the same time claim that if you do, you are a potential terrorist. They should all look in the mirror when they use that word.

[presence]

WTF? I posted this yesterday and got demoted to "off topic"

"DOWNRIGHT SCARY" "Potential Billion Dollar Storm" NJ, NY, & PA

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...-quot-NJ-NY-PA

Latest updates in reference to Hurricane Sandy:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&form at=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONTD WITH MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE SANDY AND THE WEATHER WITH THE STORM. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS NOW DOES INDEED CAPTURE THE TROPICAL STORM AND SLAM IT INTO THE NEW ENGLAND CST ONLY TO STALL IT OVER THE NRN ADIRONDACKS WED. PRVS 00Z ECMWF DOWNRIGHT SCARY...ESP FOR CSTL NY/NJ WITH THE STORM LEFT TURNING A CPL HNDRD MILES FURTHER SOUTH INTO CNTRL NJ BEFORE STALLING AS EARLY AS TUE. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED TWRD A MORE WWRD TRACK...SO THE BOTTOM LINE IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BE IMPACTING CNTRL NEW YORK AND NE PENNSYLVANIA IN THE XTNDD PD.



http://classic.wunderground.com/blog...s/article.html


Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm
for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada

The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines. Also of great concern are Sandy's rains. Given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, as predicted, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S. Another huge concern is storm surge flooding. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding.

There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters







"Downright Scary" is some heavy, flagrant language from the National Weather Service, especially on a storm 5 days off the coast that just became a Cat 1. Aparently, there is a possiblity that Sandy will mix with a cold trough coming across the US and turn into some kind of icy super soaker with prolonged/sustained 60-70 mph wind.



presence

[KCIndy]

.....I'm trying to think of what non perishables I should buy. I used to be able to eat just carbs and stuff, but I notice lately that I need plenty of protein. I guess tuna and peanut butter is a good place to start.. any suggestions?

Just my 2 cents worth...

My wife and I drive a truck, and have often been stuck for (thankfully) short periods of time in bad weather. We once spent two days stuck in a pullout along I-80 in Wyoming due to a blizzard.

I always keep a few packages of freeze dried camping meals in the truck with me:



You can buy these at almost any Wal-Mart in the sporting goods department for around five bucks a package. As long as you've got water and a way to heat it (even a small sterno stove will work for heating water; again, see the camping department of your local Wal-Mart or sporting goods store) these make pretty tasty emergency meals. Heck, in a worst case scenario, you can dump in cold water and still rehydrate the stuff, although it probably won't taste as good.

These things keep for years, and are actually good enough that if you don't use them for an emergency, they can be used as snacks or meals for those "lazy days" when a trip to the store sounds just... too.... hard.....

[KramerDSP]

I work at a residential school for deaf and blind kids in NE Florida. The kids attend from all over the state. They were sent home today instead of the usual Fridays, and staff were given a paid holiday for tomorrow. I think it's an overreaction for Florida residents but I'm not complaining.

[cajuncocoa]

Thanks Dianne. Getting some great advice and reports from people who have been there before. I'm trying to think of what non perishables I should buy. I used to be able to eat just carbs and stuff, but I notice lately that I need plenty of protein. I guess tuna and peanut butter is a good place to start.. any suggestions?

In addition to KCIndy's good suggestions above, and the ones you made here, people in N'awlins tend to load up on Pop-Tarts when a hurricane is coming. Go figure.

Here's another link with suggestions:

http://www.livestrong.com/article/22...e-preparation/

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Not sure, but a lot of people have the sense to prepare for a hurricane headed straight for them.

Sry, that was dumb. I meant to say....

Not sure, but a lot of people do not have the sense to prepare for a hurricane headed straight for them.

[Feelgood]

I don't recall ever experiencing one so late.

Hurricane Wilma was much worse. This late in the year, they always hook hard right. When I went to sleep, it was barely a blip on the radar, way down south near Mexico, I believe. The very next morning when I woke up, it was a full blown category 5 storm headed right at me. It lost strength just before making landfall, thank God, but still came across as a Cat 2 storm. The eye passed directly over my head in West Palm Beach. First half of the storm wrecked one side of my house and roof, second half had the winds coming from the opposite direction, and finished the job. Huge mess, not one shingle left on my roof.

Horrible storm. It hit like the last week of October I believe.

[kathy88]

Bump. How are you all faring?

[asurfaholic]

Too much wind, I hear.

Well, you would be foolish to go out when the bands are near.. lol. No, you catch the waves while the storm is still waay out there. The wind pushes the waves for hundreds of miles, and you just watch the reports, and pick a beach that is facing the right direction. Driving 45 minutes can make a huge difference.

Day before hurricane, wrightsville beach http://wblivesurf.com/dailyphotos.as...25/2011&page=9
Day before hurricane, emerald isle http://www.eilivesurf.com/dailyphoto...25/2011&page=2
Day of hurricane, wrightsville beach http://wblivesurf.com/dailyphotos.asp?date=08/26/2011&page=4
Day of hurricane, emerald isle http://www.eilivesurf.com/dailyphoto...26/2011&page=4

These beaches are just an hour or so away from each other, huge difference in size and power of the waves. Although, Irene was a tough cookie, because normally when the storm is running up the coast, the winds may not push the waves the right direction until the storm is right over you. Better waves happen when there is storm straight out, when that happens you can surf the bigger swell for days ahead of the storm.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

These beaches are just an hour or so away from each other, huge difference in size and power of the waves.

haha. You sound excited.

[cindy25]

could this effect the election? or even cause it to be cancelled in some states?

I could see this flipping PA if the Philly area can't vote, or has no power by election day. maybe even NY could be in play (upstate NY is Republican; no NYC and it could happen.

in PA the legislature could cancel the election, and award the electors?

[moostraks]

Ehhh...we just got our first uh-oh from the local weather station. 81 degree record yesterday and this pib storm has a chance of giving us winds off of Lake Erie for wet lake effect snow. Boo hoo!!! We made sure to spend all day outside yesterday and am going to clean out the garden and mulch the berry patch this morning before rain hits tonight and we cool WAY down this next week.

Hope this storm ain't what they think it'll be for the coastal folks. Having grown up in Florida I have learned to not trust any weather report until it is quite clear it is coming ashore.

[opal]

Cat 2? pishaw - we drive that fast - pulling an RV. *quotes Ron White* It's not so much THAT the wind's blowin' as it is WHAT the wind's blowin'

food.. water.. fuel for the generator and something to keep you from going stir crazy if you have no internet access..

[presence]

It's not so much THAT the wind's blowin' as it is WHAT the wind's blowin'

Note the massive cold low pressure system, that just froze most of north Texas, now on the Mississippi Coast about to pick up a warm gulf water before merging with Sandy. It looks like a baseball bat about to strike a curve ball. The outer bands of both storms are just now beginning to merge.

WOW... Weather Underground's Wundermap. In the menu on the right, check out the US Forecast "Temperature" with 50% opacity; Zoom out over all of north America. Its like a night and day wave of low pressure cold weather about to collide with a huge mass of warm low pressure (sandy). Freakin neat.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[libertygrl]

Bump. How are you all faring?

Here's the latest kathy88:

(CBS News) Hurricane Sandy is currently in the Bahamas and is now considered a a Category 1 storm, a weakened version of the storm since Thursday with winds at 80 miles per hour, David Bernard, chief meteorologist for CBS News Miami station CBS-4, reported on "CBS This Morning."

"The storm is going to leave the Bahamas tonight and it's going to parallel the East Coast for the next 24 to 48 hours," he said. "So by Sunday night, early Monday morning, it'll be roughly east of the outer banks of North Carolina, and then that infamous turn to the west is expected to occur sometime on Monday or Monday night."

But even in its weakened state, Bernard said Sandy is going to be "a very large storm." He explained, "An approach to the coastline like that, whether you're talking Chesapeake Bay or north towards Long Island coming in from the east, that's not a very good direction. It's a very unusual one. And one of the reasons for is it we have a big roadblock in the central Atlantic -- it's a big blocking high -- that's going to force the storm westward, then it's going to get caught up in this cold air. That's why we're talking about there could be factors with this storm that you might not normally see as the hurricane makes landfall and that could be the form of some winter-type activity."

Florida residents in some coastal areas are already under a tropical storm warning and the threat of storms has already forced some cities to cancel school for the day. Residents there, as the winds picked up speed and rain grew stronger, wasted no time preparing for Sandy's arrival, some filling sandbags that are intended to ward off flooding.

One resident said, "I think it's going to be a big one. I just hope it doesn't hit us too hard."

But Floridians aren't the only ones gearing up for what could become the storm of the season. With memories of last year's Hurricane Irene still fresh in everyone's mind, utility companies as far north as Connecticut are bracing for the worst.

Mitch Gross, of Connecticut Light and Power, said, "(We're) getting our resources ready, making sure our people are ready, getting everything in order."

In Maryland, batteries, generators, and radios flew off store shelves.

John Johnson, of Berlin, Md., said, "We are talking about five to six days possibility, so therefore you gotta sort of plan for that."

The planning isn't unfounded, based on Bernard's assessment on "CTM." He said the storm's wind field is growing. "(We expect) storm-force winds for a large part of the northeast and mid-Atlantic, then power outages as well, and there's a possibility of very heavy inland snows, especially in western Pennsylvania, some of the higher terrain there, into West Virginia, northern Virginia, maybe even the mountains of western Maryland could see heavy snows as a result of the tropical moisture coming in and winter cold wrapping in behind it."

It's planning that could also save lives. Hurricane Sandy is now blamed for at least 21 deaths across the Caribbean. In Cuba, nine people were killed as Sandy toppled houses, ripped off roofs, and flooded entire neighborhoods, making it the island's most deadly storm since 2005. In the Dominican Republic, flash flooding buried cars and trees under water. And in Jamaica, most of eastern part of the island remains without power and even with the storm gone, flash flooding remains a danger. A Jamaican reporter described the scene there this way: "The water is flowing heavily and it is going to get worse. Right now it is a clear and present danger."

Now faced with news of Sandy's destructive potential, those living in her path can only do their best as they prepare for the worst.

One Florida resident said, "Just last week, we talked about the fact that we hadn't had any hurricanes this year, and here we are."

Even though Florida is experiencing heavy winds and rain as a result of Sandy, the storm will actually skirt the East Coast of the state as it makes it was northward along the Eastern Seaboard.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[libertygrl]

[QUOTE=cindy25;4701780]could this effect the election? or even cause it to be cancelled in some states?

I could see this flipping PA if the Philly area can't vote, or has no power by election day. maybe even NY could be in play (upstate NY is Republican; no NYC and it could happen.

in PA the legislature could cancel the election, and award the electors?[/QUOTE



Experts: Team Obama Should Root for Hurricane Sandy to Interrupt Election

It's been called "snowicane" and "worse than the perfect storm," and it could knock out power in the mid-Atlantic through Election Day.

Hurricane Sandy hasn't even made it past the Bahamas yet, but Sandy, or any natural disaster around Election Day, could wreak extreme havoc on the election, experts say.

Political scientists have long studied the effects of rain and inclement weather on voter turnout and, not surprisingly, have found many people would rather stay at home than brave the weather. But more extreme storms or natural disasters that affect an entire state or region could turn a mild inconvenience into a huge mess.

That's because there are few federal election procedure laws, Robert Pastor, co-director of the Center for Democracy and Election Management says. Election process is generally left up to state or local governments, who Pastor says are "least capable of handling a statewide or regional disaster."

Most states have contingency plans in case a state of emergency is declared on Election Day. In Virginia, which could be hit hard by Sandy, Governor Bob McDonnell can postpone the election for up to 14 days, leading to all sorts of logistical issues.

If, for instance, the election came down to a late-voting Virginia "there'd probably be an outlandish intervention of Super PAC money as well as regular campaign spending," says John Hudak, a governance studies fellow at Brookings. "It would be quite the carnival . . . you'd have a very serious constitutional situation occurring."


It'd also represent a field day for lawyers. Congress has the power to formally protest Electoral College votes from states they feel are tainted, as long as one member from each house agrees to bring it to a vote. If a majority of both houses vote to reject the votes from a certain state, they are thrown out.

"If you have a situation where [a] state has delayed its voting and that one had an impact on the outcome, we'd see a movement to reconsider those votes," he says. For the sake of sanity, let's hope it doesn't happen."

In Hurricane Sandy's case, early predictions are suggesting the storm may make landfall during the early part of next week, so the initial impacts of the storm are likely to have subsided by Nov. 6. But if power remains out through Election Day, as some experts are predicting, there could be residual effects on the election.

Most, but not all states require backup paper ballots at polling stations that use electronic voting machines. Says Pastor: "If there is a region wide natural disaster that shuts down power, there's a high-probability that we will lose votes. In a close election, that'll ensure there will be serious electoral disputes."

Pastor says a natural disaster that impacts the election would "stretch the fabric of American Democracy to the point of being torn" because, in many cases, local disputes over voting "would be addressed in an area where one party is largely dominant and the rules are extremely weak."


So far, American elections have been fairly natural disaster-free. Hudak says there have been some "small scale issues" with blizzards in the upper plains and Rocky Mountain states in previous elections. With any luck, that streak will continue in 2012. But even if Sandy isn't catastrophic, inclement weather throughout the country could have a more predictable impact on the election.

According to a recent survey by the Weather Channel, 35 percent of undecided voters say bad weather will have a "moderate to significant" impact on whether they vote, compared to 27 percent of Democrats and 20 percent of Republicans.

Though those numbers appear to favor former governor Mitt Romney, Hudak says team Obama should be praying for rain.

"Obama has been effective at getting voters to vote early, so anything affecting turnout on Election Day is likely to be bad news for Romney," he says. Voting during a storm is also easier for urban voters—a group that overwhelmingly supports Obama—who often have a shorter distance to travel to polling sites than rural voters. "It would certainly set up a benefit to the president if a natural disaster did interrupt voting."

http://h ttp://www.usnews.com/news/a...lection?page=2

[donnay]

They are calling this storm-- "Frankenstorm." "The weather service gave the hybrid storm the "ghoulish nickname" Frankenstorm as "an allusion to Mary Shelley's Gothic creature of synthesized elements." Could it be they are calling it a 'Frankenstorm' because they are engineering it with all the tool they have to modify the weather?

Weather Modification a Long-Established, Though Secretive, Reality
http://pesn.com/2005/09/06/9600160_W..._Modification/

[Nirvikalpa]

This map AUTO UPDATES for the BEST ACCURACY:

NHC Tropical Models

GFS
Global Forecast System
(formerly AVN or MRF) Dynamic This is the American model, formerly the MRF (Medium Range Forecast) or AVN model. It is run every 6 hours (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) and goes out to 16 days (384 hours).

GFDL
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Dynamic The GFDL is run every 6 hours (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) and forecasts out to 126 hours. It is only run when there is an active disturbance or named storm in the tropics. The GFDL model has a specialized method for initializing the center of the storm's circulation. The initial and boundary conditions are obtained form the GFS model. The GFDL model is most definitely one to consider when forecasting the path and intensity of a tropical cyclone. It was developed specifically to forecast hurricanes, and it generally does a fairly good job. In fact, the the GFDL model has been the best-performing model in 2003, 2004, and 2005.

HWRF
Hurricane-Weather Research and Forecasting Dynamic This is the model being designed to take the place of the GFDL in 2007. It has been undergoing extensive testing in 2004/2005 and will undergo final tests in 2006.

UKMET
United Kingdom METeorological office Dynamic The UKMET is the model of the United Kingdom METeorological office. It is run every 12 hours (0000 and 1200 UTC) and goes out to 120 hours.
While not developed as a tropical model, it is a good dynamic model, in general. Definitely worth a look when considering the future track of a tropical cyclone.

BAMS / BAMM / BAMD
Beta and Advection Models Trajectory The BAM follows a trajectory from the Aviation run of the American GFS model to provide a track forecast. This model incorporates a correction known as the "Beta Effect". This is used to account for the fact that the Coriolis force resulting from the rotation of the Earth is greater toward the poles, so the winds on the northern side of the storm in the Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone are turned more than those on its southern side. If no other winds were steering a tropical cyclone, the "Beta Effect" would cause a westward-headed storm to drift toward the north in the Northern Hemisphere, and toward the south in the Southern Hemisphere. There are three (3) versions of the BAM...:

BAMM - the BAM Medium, this version averages winds from 10,000 to 24,500 feet (850 - 400 mb). The BAMM is best-used for tropical storms of weak to moderate strength or disorganized hurricanes. Tropical storms are generally steered by the mid-level steering flow.

Typically, the NHC will run the BAM models on a tropical disturbance just to get a general idea where this disturbance might track. Since the BAM is a very simple trajectory model, it is best used where the steering currents are less likely to change in the future. This would typically be in the deep tropics south of 20N latitude. Because the BAM models are not dynamic, they should be used with extreme caution outside of the deep tropics where steering currents may change with time.

Not liking where GFS, UKMET and BAMM have projected this to go. Can't get any info on "NAM" model, but it has it projecting to hug the coast and not make landfall until its very weak.