New housing starts surge 15% in September -- best level since '08

[Tod]

Wonder how long this will last?

WASHINGTON -- New residential construction starts surged 15% in September to their highest annual rate in more than four years, as the housing sector continued to show signs of a burgeoning rebound.
The number of new privately owned housing units that began construction was up for the third straight month, and rose in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
The figures surpassed economists' expectations of about a 770,000 annual rate.
September had the best monthly performance since July 2008, when housing starts were on an annual pace of 923,000. Compared with last September, new housing starts are up 34.8%, the Commerce Department said.
Last month's growth was "surprisingly strong," said David Crowe, chief economist at the National Assn. of Home Builders.
"As consumer confidence rises and jobs return, more local markets and more consumers will join the buyer market and I expect housing construction to continue a modest but fairly steady rise throughout 2013 and into 2014," Crowe wrote in a blog post.

more here:

http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...,1734477.story

[Brian4Liberty]

Depends upon when the shadow inventory starts moving. Banks have become even slower in processing foreclosures.

Oh, by the way, all the statistics for the past seven years about the shadow inventory were a little off. Whoops. Move along, nothing to to see here.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b....html?page=all

CoreLogic Inc. has determined that the shadow inventory figures it has been reporting quarterly for the past seven years are flawed -- and, in most cases, way off -- and is thus changing its methodology moving forward, according to a company statement this week.

In fact, when the California research firm revised all shadow inventory data for every month dating back to January 2005 to reflect the new method, it found the original numbers were low-balled by roughly 40 to 60 percent.

[AuH20]

You have to be crazy to buy a home right now, despite the low rates. You will be essentially buying a declining asset with uncertain ancillary costs (property taxes, energy price fluctuations, stagnant income levels, etc.).

[jbuttell]

You have to be crazy to buy a home right now, despite the low rates. You will be essentially buying a declining asset with uncertain ancillary costs (property taxes, energy price fluctuations, stagnant income levels, etc.).

Crazy eh?

[angelatc]

Depends upon when the shadow inventory starts moving. Banks have become even slower in processing foreclosures.

Oh, by the way, all the statistics for the past seven years about the shadow inventory were a little off. Whoops. Move along, nothing to to see here.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b....html?page=all

I think the government is pushing the banks to keep the foreclosed home listings off the market right now. Until after the election, probably. Not scientific, but in this area the HUD / Homepath homes are almost all sold now, based on the number of new listings that are appearing. (Or rather, NOT appearing.)

Our realtor made statements about the houses that were in the pipeline that jived with the original assertions - that there were about 2 years backlogged. But while most of the homes that were available when we were looking have now sold, they're not releasing new ones.

[LibertyRevolution]

But while most of the homes that were available when we were looking have now sold, they're not releasing new ones.

I am looking for a house and this is what I see happening also.
I found a bunch I wanted to look at, but they all sold before I could get down to even look at them, within 2 weeks of me finding the listing..
So I been looking at all the new listing.. I have not seen anymore cheap listings for awhile now.

[devil21]

Depends upon when the shadow inventory starts moving. Banks have become even slower in processing foreclosures.

I watched a local news segment the other day where a realtor being interviewed claimed the shadow inventory has shrunk back to the "usual" 6 months and it's time to buy again.

[VanBummel]

I guess the Republican congress finally got out of the way and let Obama save the economy?

[Zippyjuan]

You have to be crazy to buy a home right now, despite the low rates. You will be essentially buying a declining asset with uncertain ancillary costs (property taxes, energy price fluctuations, stagnant income levels, etc.).

I disagree. Renting does not let you escape anything you listed (property taxes are included in what you are charged for rent). If interest rates go up, then the costs of buying will be higher in the future. Say you wait two years. That will mean paying another two years of rent when that money could instead be paying on the mortgage instead. That also means it will not be paid off until two tears later. If your rent is, say $1000 a month that means you pay $24,000 more by waiting.