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Thread: Short term metals direction?

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    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    Default Short term metals direction?

    For short term metals traders, where do you see them going in the near future? It feels a bit overbought (in the temporary, short-term sense). SLV has had trouble breaking through the 34 level, pulling back a bit today. What next? Will we break below 30 before the end of the year? Or bounce above 30?
    Last edited by Brian4Liberty; 10-05-2012 at 12:48 PM. Reason: Fixed, been tracking SLV not silver!
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    If you're trading day-to-day, you can pretty much count on intervention to slap down the price of silver whenever it goes above $35. It practically begs a trading strategy of shorting silver whenever it goes above, and going long when it drops below. If you'd played that over the past few weeks you'd have made a ridiculous amount of money off it.
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    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    Fixed the OP. My prices were based on SLV, not actual silver. Bet there are probably a lot of traders that focus more on SLV and GLD than the metal prices. That could have some interesting ramifications.
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    Just me, but I am not a big fan of short term trading. The shorter the term, the higher the risk of something unexpected popping up and you being on the wrong side of it. A single news story can move the price in a different direction. Also more frequent trading increases costs which reduces your overall returns. If anybody could consistantly predict short term movements they would be millionares. Longer term investing lets you ride out the little ups and downs and keep your costs lower.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 10-05-2012 at 02:11 PM.
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  6. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Will we break below 30 before the end of the year? Or bounce above 30?
    It's really a coinflip. Could go in either direction. I've been holding some slv for about a year now with a $32 cost basis. I think I may close my position any day now because there is just too much uncertainty for me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    It's really a coinflip. Could go in either direction. I've been holding some slv for about a year now with a $32 cost basis. I think I may close my position any day now because there is just too much uncertainty for me.
    There is a lot of self-fulfilling prophesy involved in short term market movements. People start to sell when they think it is peaking, and that in itself creates the peak. People buy when they think it has bottomed, thus creating the bottom. And you don't even want to think about how much the people on Wall St. can manipulate that process. It would be nice to be a major brokerage who can see all of it's clients sell and buy points (i.e. outstanding limit orders).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Just me, but I am not a big fan of short term trading. The shorter the term, the higher the risk of something unexpected popping up and you being on the wrong side of it. A single news story can move the price in a different direction. Also more frequent trading increases costs which reduces your overall returns. If anybody could consistantly predict short term movements they would be millionares. Longer term investing lets you ride out the little ups and downs and keep your costs lower.
    Agreed.

  9. #8

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    Trading precious metals in paper markets (mostly leveraged, on margin trades) - is a good way to give yourself an early heart attack. You could make a lot of money fast and you can lose a lot of money fast, both based on UNfundamentals and totally irrelevant garbage.

    People who hang around these parts (RPF) are privy, thanks to their own activism, certain truths that should not be wasted.

    Physical. When it comes to PM's, just buy the metal.
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  10. #9

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    i've been thru about 12 potus elections , if a person things obama will be reelected load the boat with gold/silver , intrade has obama at 66% chance of being the next potus.

    myself i don't think there is much difference between the 2 parties , i will vote for gary johnson.

    most real long term gold lovers would like to see the price go down so they can buy more at a cheaper price .

    like said above gold is a long term hold , i see it doing nothing but going up , the whole world is printing paper.

  11. #10

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    If you're looking at the short term I wouldn't bother with the PMs.

    It's a long game for sure... silver is manipulated regularly by the central banks as well as gold. If you can figure out those manipulations on the paper silver market you might be able to make a good amount of money but that's not my prerogative.

    When it comes to PMs I think the best thing to do is buy phyiscal, out of the government's eyes, and wait until monetary order is restored or interest rates start to rise.
    It's just an opinion... man...

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    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    Update: SLV now at 31.73, after hitting a ceiling at 35.

    (Disclaimer: this thread/information is purely for fun and entertainment. It is not to be construed as investing advise in any way. Short term trading in any market should be considered gambling.)
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    Probably be 33 end of the day , but we will see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Probably be 33 end of the day , but we will see.
    SLV ended at 31.66. Got to keep in mind that SLV is not exactly the same as the price of silver.
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  15. #14

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    I use a couple of moving averages to guide my entries, the 13 EMA and the 26 EMA. When they cross, I start entering my position in 1/3's. They're close to crossing now, indicating a move down. How far is anybody's guess.
    Last edited by DFF; 10-15-2012 at 04:19 PM.

  16. #15

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    I sold my SLV last week at 33.50. Working on exiting my gold position next.
    Original supporter of Ron Paul since 2007 and I stand with Rand.

  17. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by brandon View Post
    I sold my SLV last week at 33.50. Working on exiting my gold position next.
    Out of curiosity, why are you selling?
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  18. #17

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    My personal reason is because I'm going to use the money to buy a house this spring. There's too much volatility in metals for me right now. I'm still bullish long term on gold and silver.
    Last edited by brandon; 10-15-2012 at 09:07 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    SLV ended at 31.66. Got to keep in mind that SLV is not exactly the same as the price of silver.
    That is right.

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    SLV hit 30.93 today...
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  21. #20

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    Which is why I went to my guy and bought more

    I kind of don't want Romney to win because I think it will crash all the metals in the short term but at the same time it will make it an even better time to buy... whenever it crashes I like to get some and silver didn't really have a good week.
    It's just an opinion... man...

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    I cannot figure it out , , so I bought some beer, copper, bacon , shrimp , pork and gold. Fuck em

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    Site Staff - Moderator Brian4Liberty's Avatar
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    SLV closed below 30 today (29.95). Based on my original speculation, this could be the buy point (for those who attempt to buy at lows).

    Then again, breaking through the 30 barrier may mean we go back to yearly lows (bounce at 26?).
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    I am skeptical , 26 or , even 27 will ever be seen again ......

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    SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


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  26. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...
    Yup!
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  27. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    SLV taking off, just jumped to 31.11...
    Looks like 32.11 to me.

  28. #27

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    Yeah, I missed the low. Couldn't find anyone who wanted to sell.
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    Obama wins. Where do metals go tomorrow?
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  30. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Obama wins. Where do metals go tomorrow?
    Up, up and away.

    EDIT: Too bad, I wanted time to buy some more while the market was in a holding pattern. Half the electorate voted for the Fed's dollar to continue plummeting, which will give the illusion that all commodities elevators are taking off at once, when really it's only the FRN elevator on a descent.

    I have always said that I pity whomever is sworn into office in January, because that President AND his party are going to be left holding a TERRIBLE Fed/Bankers/Bush/Obama bag.

    Happy scapegoat, Obama. That's not a can you're kicking down the road. It's a bundle of sweaty dynamite.

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    “An Obama win favors a continuation of the current easy money policy,” Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments LLC, wrote in an e-mail. “The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The market rewards this certainty by bidding up gold, selling off the dollar versus all major currencies.”

    The incoming president will need to address a so-called fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect in January unless Congress can reach a budget compromise.
    Last edited by Steven Douglas; 11-07-2012 at 02:31 AM.

  31. #30

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    This almost feels like the perfect storm for a dollar crisis...

    Already high unemployment and debt/deficit numbers - check
    Large tax increases looming - check
    Large federal spending cuts looming - check

    We all know how this plays out, if Obama and the Republican House cant reach an agreement, then Obama's only lever to pull in trying to stop another recession is to inflate his way out of it...

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