IMO Ireland or Portugal will be the catalyst, precisely because they've fallen off the radar and aren't being taken into account by the prognosticators... and their situations are already nearly as dire as Greece's is. When Ireland explodes back into the headlines it's going to come as a huge shock to many and that will set off cascading effects. I don't think this situation gets as far as direct financial attacks on Spain and Italy, the support for the Euro scheme will be pulled before it gets to the larger countries as the core Euro nations see the writing on the wall and move to triage their losses.



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